DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, June 20

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown article! The main slate brings us a seven game slate so let’s get busy.

We may have had to wait forever on Tuesday night for the fantasy points to come rolling in, but that Colorado stack hit we went flying up the leaderboards. It could have been a bigger night if Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story hadn’t squandered a bases loaded situation, but finishing in the cash is good whenever it comes. I’m kicking myself for not playing Freddy Peralta everywhere since I identified him in this space as a great way to get the bats we wanted. I got scared of the floor towards lock and went with Luke Weaver instead. at least it didn’t kill us and we’re onto Wednesday.

DFS MLB – Orioles at Nationals

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.98 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .370 wOBA, 46.1 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .329 average, .404 wOBA, 29.8 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard contact rate

Cashner will make his return from the disabled list and he’s not someone I have interest in on a good day, let alone after a lay-off due to injury. In 74 at-bats, the Washington lineup has owned him in his career. I could be a very short night for Cashner as the Washington offense put up some runs last night and could easily do it again tonight. Trea Turner is coming off a big game, is right handed and is still under $4,000 so he’s firmly in play. Anthony Rendon is on the better side of the splits as well. I’m not terribly worried about the splits since some of the Nationals best hitters are lefties. Adam Eaton, Juan Soto and Bryce Harper are all great options this evening. Don’t be surprised if the Nats hang a big number again.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Michael A. Taylor

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .188 average, .210 wOBA, 34.9 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .327 wOBA, 30.5 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate

It hasn’t been a good run for Gonzalez lately as he’s totaled 19 FanDuel points for both. This isn’t exactly a spot I want to target him in since Baltimore has so many righties. Having said that, the Orioles aren’t the most potent offense in baseball and Gonzalez could bounce back. The Orioles rank 20th or lower in OPS, ISO and wOBA against lefty pitching.  I’d be willing to take a stab here but his price is too high for my liking at $9,200 on FanDuel, the second highest on the slate. This is a steer clear spot mostly for me. If you wanted to play Manny Machado or Danny Valencia, that’s not the worst idea. You can mix in Adam Jones if it appears that Gonzalez would be a chalky pitcher as a solid leverage play.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Options – Adam Jones

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon

DFS MLB – Mariners at Yankees

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.44 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .350 wOBA, 40.2 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .268 average, .331 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard contact rate

Out of his 15 starts this season, King Felix has given up more than three earned runs six times. Tonight could be number seven when he takes on the Bronx Bombers in New York. Lefties have hit two more homers against him this season but I’m not worried about the splits here. Hernandez is not a good pitcher anymore when he’s against this kind of offense, he might get whacked in a major way. Aaron Judge is going yard today, I’m just getting that out of the way right now. He’s got a .312 ISO against righties and he’s at home. From there, Greg Bird is the next best ISO against the handedness and Hernandez is giving up gobs of fly balls and hard contact. If Brett Gardner is back in the lineup, he owns Hernandez from a BvP perspective. I’d be more inclined to play Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres than Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton. It should be pointed out that Stanton has been hitting well the past few games. Hernandez is in a terrible spot.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Brett Gardner(if active)

Secondary Options – Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius

Yankees Probable Starter – Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP 

0.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 30.0 strikeout rate

It’s always a little dangerous to pull too much from just one start and that’s the case for Loaisiga. He did allow 3 walks to righties in just five innings pitched and he shut down the lefties that he faced. These kinds of games are always hard to figure out. I really would rather not pitch the young buck for New York because Seattle doesn’t strikeout a lot so I’m not sure there’s a ton of upside. Loaisiga is one of the few cheap pitchers that could provide some value if you want to go right back to the Coors Field well. That game went bonkers last night but I wouldn’t expect the exact same result tonight. Anyways, I think we just want to stick with the Seattle hitters that hit righties the best. Denard Span is a very cheap way to get a piece of this lineup and I would play Mitch Haniger before I play Nelson Cruz. I don’t think I’ll have the most exposure to this side of the game just because there’s no real track record to predict what will happen.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Denard Span, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager

Home Run Pick – Aaron Judge

DFS MLB – Brewers at Pirates

Brewers Probable Starter – Brent Suter, LHP 

4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .280 wOBA, 39.9 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .334 wOBA, 35.7 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard contact rate

Suter is average by just about every measure that we usually take a look at but he’s in a quietly tough spot here. The Pirates have a top 10 offense in baseball against lefties in OPS, ISO and wOBA. He should be back in the lineup tonight and I really want to take a long look at Austin Meadows. He’s been much better against lefties so far in his short career and the fly ball rate would suggest regression for Suter against lefty hitting. People do not play lefties on lefty pitching. If you needed a reminder, Charlie Blackmon was roughly five percent owned last night. If Elias Diaz catches, he’s a lock in my lineup with his .509 wOBA against lefties. I know it’s gross to think about it, but Sean Rodriguez hits lefties well. Jordy Mercer has also been red hot lately and is a possibility to lead off.

Pirates Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Austin Meadows, Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer if leading off and Elias Diaz if he plays

Secondary Options – Francisco Cervelli, Sean Rodriguez, Josh Harrison

Pirates Probable Starter – Chad Kuhl, RHP 

3.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .344 wOBA, 43.9 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .273 average, .320 wOBA, 32.5 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard contact rate

I don’t know how Kuhl is surviving against lefties right now but I suspect it comes to an end tonight, especially if Travis Shaw makes it back to the lineup tonight. He’s never been good against lefty hitters and it appears this year’s success is just a mirage. Shaw, Eric Thames and Christian Yelich could all do some damage against Kuhl tonight and those would be my top three plays from this side of the game. I would be a little hesitant with Shaw just because wrist injuries tend to linger and sap power. The one righty hitter that I would really consider is Jesus Aguilar. He had a monster game yesterday and he’s awesome against righty pitching. The average given up to righty hitters isn’t that great for Kuhl.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Thames, Christian Yelich

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar

Home Run Pick – Austin Meadows

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Twins

Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP 

3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .182 average, .246 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 21.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .300 wOBA, 41.5 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard contact rate

It’s an early guess, but I’m thinking Price might wind up the highest owned pitcher on this smaller slate. He’s on a blue blood team in baseball and he gets a solid matchup and a good price point. The Twins have a 24 percent strikeout rate against lefty pitching, which is appealing. The Twins basically have two options in this game. They can run their normal lefties out there against Price or they can do what they did last night and put in righty hitters like Taylor Motter, Mitch Garver and Ryan LaMarre at the bottom of the order. Either way, that’s not the most intimidating lineup against the crafty lefty. I’m not the biggest fan of Price, but even I can’t deny that he comes into this game in good form. He’s hit at least 40 points in five of his last six starts. Ehire Adrainza has their highest wOBA against lefties from the right side of the plate at .382. I don’t really want a ton of Twins bats tonight.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ehire Adrianza

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.98 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .356 wOBA, 18.4 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard contact rate

vs RHH – .248 average, .327 wOBA, 35.5 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard contact rate

If there was a time to lean on pitch data, this might be the spot. Lynn throws his fastball almost 78 percent of the time and the Red Sox have two of the best four hitters against that pitch in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. They also have three more in the top 50 in baseball in Andrew Benintendi(21st), Xander Bogaerts(31st) and Mitch Moreland(48th). Even with a low fly ball rate, the lefties have to be fairly interesting tonight. I think my two favorite plays from this team might just be Benintendi and Rafael Devers since both of them have been red hot lately. Devers is still just $3,600 on FanDuel. The Red Sox are one of the premier stacking options even with Coors Field still to go. The three lefties might be my preferred route.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers

Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts

Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi

DFS MLB – Rays at Astros

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

4.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 18.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .322 wOBA, 35.3 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .128 average, .181 wOBA, 31.4 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard contact rate

It’s really been a trial by fire for Eovaldi so far this year. He’s faced Oakland, Washington, Seattle and the Yankees. Now he gets to face the Astros in Houston which could be another bad start for him. What is interesting is Eovaldi has been pretty solid against righties so far and and Houston is righty heavy. I would still side with the Astros offense as I tend to do with mediocre pitching but I’m not sure I’ll be heavy on them given some of the other options. This is a spot that might be better served just sticking with the Houston heavy hitters and not getting all that cute. George Springer is the cheapest of the big four but he’s also got the lowest wOBA. Jose Altuve has the best and might be worth the extra $400 if you’re playing an Astro. Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa are virtually identical in that metric. If you really want a play that will go unowned, you can hope the splits hold and Eovaldi can limit the Astros.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel

Secondary Options – Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Evan Gattis

Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP 

2.94 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 30.6 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .183 average, .285 wOBA, 34.9 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .299 wOBA, 35.0 fly ball rate and 29.5 hard contact rate

If Price isn’t the chalk on the slate, it’s going to be Morton. I really can’t argue that as I think Morton should have a really solid game. It’s just a matter if I want to devote the kind of salary needed to play him given the offensive spots. Even on a seven game slate, there’s at least three or four offenses that are in terrific spots that will be harder to afford if you play Morton. Since Ground Chuck has a higher fly ball rate and hard contact against lefties, I might be willing to take a shot at Kevin Kiermaier since he’s at minimum price on FanDuel. Matt Duffy would also be on the radar but is far from my favorite play.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kevin Kiermaier, Matt Duffy, Wilson Ramos

Home Run Pick – Yuli Gurriel

DFS MLB – Rangers at Royals

Rangers Probable Starter – Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP 

6.55 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate *2 starts*

Vs LHH – .333 average, .345 wOBA, 18.8 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .345 average, .401 wOBA, 36.4 fly ball rate and 45.5 hard contact rate

The metrics look completely awful for Bibens-Dirkx and the Royals would be in a glorious spot if they had an offense we could trust a little bit more. The best play for me is Mike Moustakas since he has the highest probability to hit a home run. Keep an eye on the Rangers lineup. There’s a chance that Isiah Kiner-Falefa could play catcher. If that happens, I want to go right back to Whit Merrifield. If he gets on first base, he’s almost guaranteed to try to steal second and he should be successful. I might also play Salvador Perez since Bibens-Dirkx has been so poor against righties as well. I’ll only be truly interested in these three players since the bottom half of the Royals lineup isn’t all that great.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield

Secondary Options – Salvador Perez

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

4.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .305 wOBA, 49.1 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .340 wOBA, 39.6 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard contact rate

Junis hasn’t been all that good of a pitcher this year and he could potentially struggle with this matchup as well. People might see the fly ball rate to lefties and want to play Joey Gallo, which I do understand. He is strictly a tournament play because he is striking out so much lately. He’s one of the the truest “two homers or a zero” players in baseball. I’d feel much better if I found the extra money for Nomar Mazara or Shin-soo Choo. I really do like Adrian Beltre but it’s a little hard to go away from the Devers/Moustakas pairing on FanDuel right now. Jurickson Profar is a good play in a vacuum but I feel like I’d rather spend that $3,800 elsewhere.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Adrian Beltre, Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Secondary Options – Joey Gallo(GPP), Elvis Andrus

Home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas

DFS MLB – Mets at Rockies

Mets Probable Starter – Seth Lugo, RHP

2.49 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 27.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .153 average, .212 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 28.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .278 wOBA, 32.9 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard contact rate

It would appear one of the biggest decisions on this slate will be how much Coors Field you want. I know for sure that I won’t have the same level of exposure to the Rockies that I did last night because Jason Vargas isn’t pitching. Lugo has been reverse splits so far and Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story could be the way to go yet again. I’d be the last person talking you off Charlie Blackmon but it might be just those three hitters that I look towards tonight. Things could easily change during the day but I have a feeling that I will be under the field on Coors. I don’t think we see the 18 run explosion we got last night. Lugo is a much better pitcher than Jason Vargas.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Trevor Story

Rockies Probable Starter – Chad Bettis, RHP 

4.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .199 average, .293 wOBA, 29.4 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .295 average, .364 wOBA, 34.3 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard contact rate

The reverse splits for Bettis sure are interesting. Right handed bats from the Mets include Wilmer Flores, Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario. The top of the Mets lineup is pretty much all lefties and Bettis has controlled them even at home to the tune of a .203 average and a .309 wOBA.  This is another reason I really feel like I’m not going crazy on Coors tonight. It’s not the normal to see 18 runs in a game. Flores will likely fly way under the radar and I’m betting most people would play Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo ahead of Frazier. I’m likely going to be the reverse of that and play Frazier or Flores, if anyone. I don’t really have a solid feel to approaching this game yet. Coors has the tendency to mess with my head and second guess myself a lot. I can already tell it’s going to be one of those days.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores

Secondary Options –  Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

Home Run Pick –  Wilmer Flores

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – David Price 

C/1B – Elias Diaz

2B – Sean Rodriguez

3B – Rafael Devers

SS – Marwin Gonzalez

OF – Aaron Judge, Kevin Kiermaier, Andrew Benintendi

Utility – Mike Moustakas

Here’s the good news – there’s enough high priced players it won’t be hard to spread the wealth through some of the weaker positions. The bad news is I’m not sure how much of a fan I am of this lineup. Don’t get me wrong, jamming in Judge, Devers, Benintendi and Moustakas is fantastic. I’m not sure how confident I am that Rodriguez and Diaz can come through for us and Kiermaier isn’t in the best matchup at all. I’m kind of warming up to David Price, at the very least. Just from a raw points aspect, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Morton was the highest scoring pitcher. I just want the extra $1,400 to build the offense tonight.

The Core – Rafael Devers, Mike Moustakas

Stacks to Consider – Red Sox(at Minnesota), Yankees(vs Seattle), Pirates(vs Brewers) and Coors Field

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.