Why LeBron James should and shouldn’t sign with the 76ers in free agency
If LeBron James turns down his player option for next season to become a free agent this summer, one of the teams expected to be in the running for him is the 76ers.
The 76ers are in a unique position compared to some of the other teams interested in signing LeBron. Whereas there’s no way of knowing what deals the Celtics and Lakers would make to acquire the 14-time All-Star in a trade or surround him with the talent he needs to compete for a championship, Philadelphia has its foundation under contract for the foreseeable future. If LeBron were to sign there, it would be out of belief that him, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid could build something special together, not that Simmons and Embiid could be flipped for better assets.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at why LeBron should and shouldn’t leave the Cavaliers for the 76ers this offseason if he becomes a free agent.
Why LeBron should sign with the 76ers
The 76ers are coming off of a season in which they won 52 games, good enough for them to enter the playoffs with the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. They did so with one of the youngest rosters in the league, led by a one-time All-Star in Joel Embiid and a future All-Star in Ben Simmons, both of whom are under the age of 25.
The 76ers wouldn’t need to part ways with Embiid or Simmons to acquire LeBron this offseason. (Waiving Jerryd Bayless, who will make $8.7 million next season, creates the cap space they need to sign the four-time MVP to a max contract). They don’t currently have a starting shooting guard under contract for 2018-19 with J.J. Redick hitting free agency, but a core of Simmons, Robert Covington, LeBron and Embiid would likely be favored to emerge from the Eastern Conference, even with the Celtics adding a healthy Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward to their playoff rotation.
The combination of Simmons and LeBron alone would be terrifying. LeBron is one of the greatest players of all-time and Simmons has been compared to the Cavaliers superstar since he became a household name at LSU. There are plenty of differences between the two — starting with LeBron being a capable jump shooter and Simmons being a complete non-shooter — and yet there are also a number of similarities, the most notable being that they are both point forwards who scored a fifth of their points in transition this season.
If Simmons and LeBron were to join forces, there wouldn’t be another team in the league with two players 6-foot-8 and above who can grab-and-go on misses or turnovers. The 76ers already push the tempo more than most teams, so having someone who finished behind only Russell Westbrook and Giannis Antetokounmpo in transition scoring this season would make them totally unguardable.
The player who would benefit the most from sharing the court with Simmons and LeBron in those situations would be Covington. Already amongst the league leaders in transition scoring, Covington would get even more opportunities to sprint the floor and make himself available for uncontested catch-and-shoot 3s — something he does at a rate only Klay Thompson can match — and dunks depending on how teams defend Simmons and LeBron in the open court.
Just imagine LeBron pushing the pace instead of Philadelphia’s back-up point guard T.J. McConnell on this possession:
Or imagine Simmons threading the needle to LeBron instead of J.R. Smith here:
Whether or not Simmons and LeBron could make it work in the halfcourt is another question, but Embiid could offset some of the problems they’d face with his versatility.
Last season’s Embiid would be the best center LeBron has ever played with, and the big man is still improving. They’d form an dominant one-two punch in pick-and-rolls, with LeBron ranking in the 91.1 percentile as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls this season and Embiid being the rare 7-footer who can pick-and-pop and pick-and-roll.
Even more devastating would be their ability to attack mismatches when teams switch those pick-and-rolls. LeBron finished behind only James Harden in isolation scoring and Embiid finished behind only LaMarcus Aldridge in post-up scoring this season. Switching would therefore give LeBron an opportunity to attack a slower-footed center in isolation and Embiid an opportunity to attack a smaller defender with his back to the basket, neither being a particularly good outcome for the defense.
As much potential as Simmons, Covington, LeBron and Embiid have on offense, they’d be at their best on defense. With beating the Warriors being ultimate goal for LeBron, playing alongside Simmons and Covington would give him two All-NBA-type defenders on the wing who have the length and speed to matchup with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. Behind them would be Embiid, a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year this season who would give them the confidence they need with his rim protection to pressure Golden State’s All-Stars on the perimeter.
There might not be a better destination for LeBron in that regard.
Why LeBron shouldn’t sign with the 76ers
There are two things holding the 76ers back from being the perfect situation for LeBron. The first is the injury history of their two stars. The second is the fit on offense.
There’s reason to believe Simmons, LeBron and Embiid have the basketball IQ to make it work, but it wouldn’t be the smoothest of fits because none of them are “shooters.” With how important spacing is in today’s NBA, building a team around LeBron and two subpar shooters — Simmons made a total of 30 shots outside the paint as a rookie and Embiid converted 30.8 percent of his 3.4 3-point attempts per game this season — would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Covington (a streaky shooter himself) and whoever else rounds out the starting lineup.
It would be troubling for LeBron in particular considering he’s unstoppable when he’s surrounded by at least three shooters. Even if Simmons becomes somewhat of a threat from midrange and Embiid develops into an above-average shooter from the perimeter, teams would still load up on LeBron to force those players to beat them outside the paint. If it didn’t prevent the 76ers from getting out of the first and second round in the playoffs, it would give the likes of the Celtics and Warriors something they could exploit in later rounds.
Bringing back free-agents-to-be Redick, Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova would go a long way in addressing those needs, but the 76ers won’t have the cap space to bring them all back next season unless they’re willing to take a paycut. Maybe they will for an opportunity to compete for a championship next to LeBron. Maybe they won’t after they proved their value on the hottest team in the league down the final stretch of the season.
That’s assuming Simmons develops a jump shot sooner rather than later, too. Despite sporting the lowest usage rate of the three, the current version of Simmons needs to function as the primary playmaker to make up for his weaknesses. Would LeBron be willing to transition into more of an off-ball role to make it work or is there a path for Simmons to become a better shooter?
They might be able to make it work if the answer to one of those is yes. If it’s to the former, LeBron would likely spend more time playing power forward, which would turn him into the scariest post-up scorer and screen-setter in the league.
If it’s to the latter, it would give Simmons the tools to function in a role similar to the one Dwyane Wade had success with next to LeBron in Miami.
Perhaps the passing ability of Simmons and LeBron would be enough for them to overcome those issues as well. LeBron finished first and Simmons finished second among forwards in assists and potential assists this season, and they’re two of the best cutters in the league. Simmons didn’t score as frequently on those plays as he probably could’ve this season, though the 76ers didn’t have the playmaking needed for the Rookie of the Year favorite to spend more time off-ball.
Regardless, there’s no doubt Simmons, LeBron and Embiid would face some obstacles in trying to put together an elite offense capable of keeping up with the Warriors.
Verdict
Joining the 76ers would give LeBron an opportunity to compete while he’s still in his prime and in the future when Simmons and Embiid are entering theirs. (It helps that LeBron has already given both of them his stamp of approval, saying Embiid has the potential to be “really, really good” and Simmons has an opportunity to “be better than me.”) The 76ers would be strapped for cash when filling out the rest of the roster this offseason, but they could move Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric in the hopes of finding players better suited to play next to LeBron, Simmons and Embiid.
Put it all together, and the LeBron-to-Philly hype should be real.