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MLB DFS Bargain Bin-Wednesday, June 20th Evening Slate

By Juan Carlos Blanco

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DraftKings
DraftKings /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Tuesday, June 19th

Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Tuesday’s suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Yesterday, I honed in on four bargain hitting spots — the Rangers early, followed by the Rockies and Mets in another Coors showdown, and finally, the Diamondbacks to cap off the night. We got decent returns on the first matchup, another haul of fantasy gold from both teams in the thin air of Colorado, and finally, some serviceable production from Arizona out west to close out the night.

The Rangers bargain bats did actually contribute a trio of multi-hit efforts, not bad for a night where the team scored a modest four runs overall. Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman and late Twitter (@jcblanco22) suggestion Isiah Kiner-Falefa went a combined 8-for-11 with three doubles, an RBI, a walk and a run. The other suggested bargain plays (Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus) were much quieter, but Delino DeShields did contribute a big two-run double.

The Rockies and Mets engaged in another scoreboard-busting affair that saw several bargain plays from both teams pay off. On the visitor’s side, Asdrubal Cabrera contributed a couple of hits and RBI apiece, Wilmer Flores doubled and scored, and even pinch-hitter Jose Bautista pitched in a single, RBI and run. The bigger production was over on the Rockies side, however, as Carlos Gonzalez slugged a solo homer, late Twitter suggestion Noel Cuevas laced a pair of doubles while scoring and driving in a run, and Chris Iannetta singled and scored.

Finally, the D-Backs’ suggested bargain bats were able to offer some decent production despite the team underwhelming as a whole offensively for the majority of the game. Jon Jay flashed with a couple of singles and runs, Jake Lamb did his best Joey Votto impersonation by walking on three occasions and also adding a single and run, and David Peralta made his one hit — a double — count, as it drove a run across the plate. He also tallied another RBI on a fielder’s choice groundout early in the game. Other suggested bargain bats Daniel Descalso, Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed were nowhere near as successful, going a combined 0-for-10 with one walk and six strikeouts, four on the part of Descalso.

On the pitching end, I focused on three bargain spots – Matthew Boyd, Mike Montgomery and Dereck Rodriguez. Boyd started off looking like he was going to handcuff the Reds all night by racking up the strikeouts over the first two-plus innings. However, Joey Votto tagged him for a grand slam in the third that made it over the fence with an unwitting assist from Nick Castellanos’ glove. Boyd ultimately lasted just four innings and finished with five punchouts overall. Montgomery was much more effective, styming the Dodgers over six innings and overcoming some control issues to allow just one earned run. Rodriguez put a solid cap on the night with a five-inning stint against the Marlins in which he allowed three earned runs but also compiled six strikeouts. That led to a fairly strong return from our lowest-priced option of the three bargain arms.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Gonzalez, Cuevas, Kiner-Falefa hot at the plate– Gonzalez provided the night’s one homer, Cuevas was an excellent fill-in for Gerardo Parra and Kiner-Falefa posted a three-hit night that included a pair of doubles.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Several D-Backs bats find plenty of air- The trio of Daniel Descalso, Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte couldn’t buy a hit among them, and what’s more, they had trouble making much contact. The six whiffs among the three were a significant part of the Diamondbacks’ troubles finding any offense until the ninth inning, when they put another two runs on the board but still came up a run short.

FanDuel MLB
FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 20th Evening Slate

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
  • On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
  • Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Wednesday!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 20th Evening Slate

Pitcher

Brent Suter, MIL at PIT- Yahoo ($37)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($6,500)/ FantasyDraft ($13,100)

There aren’t very many attractive value options at pitcher on Wednesday night’s seven-game slate, but Suter qualifies as a solid selection against a Pirates team that has an NL-low 21.8 percent hard contact rate against left-handed pitchers at home over the last month, which has led to a paltry .125 ISO over that 146-plate-appearance span. Suter has been steady, logging a win in five of his last six starts, and recording six strikeouts in four of his last six trips to the mound as well. His overall metrics have also been better on the road, as he sports a respectable .234 BAA and .306 wOBA over his 36 road innings, along with a 28:8 K:BB. His hard contact rate allowed is notably over eight points lower away from Miller Park as well (28.3 percent, as compared to 36.6 percent), and he’s boasting a season-low .264 wOBA and 19.2 percent hard contact rate allowed over his first three starts of June.

Catcher

Wilson Ramos, TB at HOU- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Ramos is priced down for a matchup against the impressive Charlie Morton, but his likely low ownership and discounted cost makes him very worthy of consideration for larger-field tournaments Wednesday. It doesn’t hurt that Ramos owns a .385 average over 14 career encounters with Morton, or that Morton is allowing a .345 wOBA (including five homers), 23.2 percent line drive rate and 31.3 percent HR/FB rate to righty bats at home. He’s also generated a 6.00 ERA and allowed a .378 wOBA over his first three starts of June, a sign of some regression that Ramos — who owns a .339 wOBA, 22.7 percent line drive rate and 39.5 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching — could capitalize on Wednesday. Moreover, Astros relievers have been vulnerable to righty bats at home in June, allowing a .332 wOBA and elevated 29.2 percent line drive rate during that stretch.

Yahoo/FantasyDraft special:

Devin Mesoraco, NYM at COL- Yahoo ($13)/FantasyDraft ($7,200)

FanDuel/FantasyDraft special:

Salvador Perez, KC vs. TEX- FanDuel ($3,100)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 20th Evening Slate

First Base

Hunter Dozier, KC vs. TEX- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($5,600)

The Royals are an interesting team to stack Wednesday against Rangers starter Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Dozier gives you very cost-effective exposure to the matchup, and it’s worth noting all three of his homers thus far have come at home. He also sports a mammoth 50.0 percent hard contact rate against righty arms, while Bibens-Dirkx is allowing a .401 wOBA to righty bats that rises to .604 when facing them on the road. While the sample size is small, it’s hard to ignore that he’s also yielding a 27.3 percent line drive rate and 45.5 percent hard contact rate to that handedness of hitter, and that he’s allowed a .354 wOBA (including .369 on the road) over a larger career sample of 197 batters. The pitch-type splits also line up in Dozier’s favor, considering he’s sporting a .355 wOBA on the sinker that counts as Bibens-Dirkx’s most thrown pitch, one that he’s allowing a .382 wOBA on thus far this season and a .427 wOBA on over his career.

Yahoo/FanDuel/FantasyDraft special:

Wilmer Flores, NYM at COL- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)

Second Base

Hernan Perez, MIL at PIT- Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/DraftKings ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($6,300)

Pirates starter Chad Kuhl has allowed a .350 wOBA and 28.8 percent line drive rate to right-handed hitters at PNC Park thus far this season, while Perez owns a .321 wOBA versus right-handed pitching overall. Perez is also sporting a season-high .341 wOBA and 25.0 percent line drive rate over his first 35 plate appearances of June, and his price should allow you considerable flexibility elsewhere in your lineup.

MLB DFS
MLB DFS /

Third Base

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TEX at KC- Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/DraftKings ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Kiner-Falefa was highly productive in another spot start Tuesday, rapping out a pair of doubles and three hits overall. He may once again find himself in the lineup Wednesday in place of Rougned Odor, which would make him a viable, significantly discounted play against the vulnerable Jake Junis and Royals bullpen. Junis has allowed a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters that rises to .392 when facing them at home. He’s also yielded 13 homers overall to that handedness, with 11 of those round trippers coming at Kauffman Stadium, partly the byproduct of a 47.6 percent hard contact rate allowed. Royals relievers haven’t been much better, producing  a 6.86 ERA and allowing a .361 wOBA and 50.8 percent hard contact rate to righty bats at home thus far in June. Meanwhile, Kiner-Falefa counters with a .367 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road, along with a 24.1 percent line drive rate and 37.3 percent hard contact rate.

Note: If Kiner-Falefa is out of the lineup, Adrian Beltre (Yahoo- $17/ FanDuel- $3,400/ DraftKings- $3,700/ FantasyDraft- $7,700) is also certainly in play in the same matchup.

More from FanSided

Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM at COL- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,900)

As the last two nights have shown, it’s smart to have exposure to the Mets in Coors. Rosario has been a part of some of the offensive boost New York has enjoyed in Colorado’s thin air, and he’s priced right again Wednesday. He offers cheap exposure to Rockies starter Chad Bettis‘ extensive problems against right-handed hitters at home, which are evidenced by a .418 BAA, .491 wOBA, 2.61 WHIP, 2.84 HR/9, 30.2 percent line drive rate and 25.0 percent HR/FB rate allowed over a 72-batter sample. Rosario’s best split has come against righties on the road, where he owns a .287 average and .314 wOBA. Moreover, Rockies relievers have been an abject disaster against right-handed hitters at Coors thus far in June, as they’ve generated a 19.76 ERA and allowed an MLB-high .570 wOBA (including five homers) over an 87-batter sample.

Outfield

Josh Reddick, HOU vs. TB- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700)

As noted below, there are some prominent names priced down on Yahoo and FantasyDraft, so certainly be mindful of taking advantage of those discounts as well. However, Reddick is also worthy of consideration, especially in larger tournaments, considering both his price and favorable track record against Rays starter Nathan Eovaldi. Reddick boasts a .455 average over 12 career encounters against a pre-Tommy John surgery Eovaldi, and a .351 wOBA, 28.9 percent line drive rate and 35.6 percent hard contact rate over 63 plate appearances against righties at Minute Maid Park thus far in 2018. Eovaldi has been most vulnerable to lefty bats, especially on the road, where they’ve tagged him for a .348 wOBA, including a pair of homers. They’ve also made hard contact against him at a 34.3 percent clip overall. His issues against that handedness extend beyond just this season’s modest sample, as well, as he’s allowed a .343 wOBA and 36 homers overall to left-handed hitters over his career.

Yahoo-only specials:

Bryce Harper– WAS vs. BAL ($15)

Giancarlo Stanton– NY vs. SEA ($17)

FantasyDraft special:

Adam Eaton, WAS vs. BAL ($8,500)

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!