MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday June 20
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate for me personally was all about offense, specifically in Coors Field, and after the Rockies and Mets combined for 18 runs as Jason Vargas gave up 7 ER in just 2.1 IP (shocker), it was clear that loading up on the bats in this game was the right core strategy. It really then came down to finding the right value/mid tier arms to make the build work and we had guys like Domingo German, Freddy Peralta and Sal Romano put up solid outings (27 or more FD points) to help you stack the big bats and push you across the cash line.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Overview:
We have a nice little split slate Wednesday for MLB DFS with five games on the Early FantasyDraft slate that kicks off at 12:35PM EST with the Tigers and Reds. The pitching for such a short slate is surprisingly loaded and it all begins with the ace of the slate in Corey Kluber ($24.7K) at home against the White Sox. This is the guy to pay up for as a massive -300 home favorite against one of the highest strikeout teams in baseball that Kluber has already dominated once this season with 10K’s in 6 shutout innings. I will make this simple – Kluber is the cash game SP1 and the price point is such that I have no issue building around him in GPP’s as his K upside here could set the cash line by itself.
Ross Stripling ($18.5K) just continues to put up elite outings and his price never seems to move which is fine with me, I will just keep rostering the Dodgers right-hander who has a 32.2% K rate over the last month which is 5th in all of baseball during that time frame. Stripling’s numbers since he really took on this starting role and was stretched out enough to accumulate innings are just off the charts good and I do not think he gets the respect he deserves in the DFS community. Since May 12th (a span of 7 starts), Stripling has 54 strikeouts versus TWO walks – seriously a 54:2 K:BB ratio. In those seven starts he has a 33.3% K rate, an absurd 18% hard contact rate and 11.6% swinging strike rate and his 1.9 xFIP supports every bit of his 1.67 ERA – this guy is for real and he is going to be in every single line-up I make in DFS until the sites price him to the elite level he deserves.
Offensively, I am going to stay on brand and continue to stack up the Dodgers even with a match-up that on paper against Jon Lester would seem tough. Regression is coming for the Cubs left-hander as his 2.28 ERA is nowhere near his xFIP and SIERA of 4.3. Lester is giving up 37% HC rate to right-handed batters and the top of this Dodgers order is loaded with guys who crush LHP – Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner and Matt Kemp – who all have .200+ ISO marks against LHP this season. If you need a value play, Logan Forsythe ($5.9K) profiles well against Lester has he has a .222 ISO against fastballs in the low 90’s, of which Lester throws 46% of the time. The one caveat here – the Dodgers and Cubs played a double-header yesterday so we could see some funky line-ups in a day game here which makes locking these guys in before we know the line-up a risky proposition but it could also open up some crazy value AND futher the case for Stripling if the Cubs give their big bats a day off.
The Indians bats will be the popular stack on this early slate against Reynaldo Lopez and although the big bats will be where everyone focuses, do not over-look the bottom of the order stack here headlined by Yonder Alonso and Lonnie Chisenhall who each have a .215+ ISO against RHP the last two seasons and Lopez is a pitcher who has struggled with left-handed bats, surrendering a 31% HC rate against them this season.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Corey Kluber ($24.7K)
SP: Ross Stripling ($18.5K)
IF: Justin Turner ($7.6K)
IF: Logan Forsythe ($6.9K)
IF: Enrique Hernandez ($6.8K)
OF: Matt Kemp ($8.3K)
OF: Chris Taylor ($7.2K)
OF: Lonnie Chisenhall ($6.7K)
UTIL: Yonder Alonso ($7.7K)
UTIL: Tucker Barnhart ($6.5K)
Slate Overview: To me this early slate seems straightforward in that investing in pitching looks like the way to build your core line-ups and Kluber and Stripling are the two best options with elite K upside so I would recommend starting there. The Dodgers offense is the one that has the best point per dollar upside in my mind but be careful with getting too locked in too early as this is the late game on the slate, starting 2 hours after lock) so you will need to get confirmation of line-ups here especially after the Cubs and Dodgers played a double-header yesterday!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview:
I am sorry – but can we please look at this picture above of Jason Vargas again – it is so perfect. I amy use this picture every day in Picks and Pivots because it so perfectly encapsulates the Vargas-ness that is the Mets left-hander. Anyways – on to the Main Slate where we have some major weather issues that could turn a short seven game slate into something even smaller.
A few games to watch today, CLE and CIN early (20% delay threats, very low PPD) and WSH, PIT and KC late (70%, 60% and 25% delay threats). While I could see WSH and possibly PIT PPD, I do think it is probable that they are able to play #MLB #DFS @SiriusXMFantasy @FanDuel
— Mark Paquette; DFS meteorologist (@DFSMLBWeather) June 20, 2018
Normally we start with the pitchers but on this Main Slate, I am going to focus on the hitters for the core of my build as we have a game in Coors Field and five total teams with 5+ run projections on the main slate. In Coors Field, my focus is going to be on the Mets stack tonight against RHP Chad Bettis who is giving up over 2 HR/9 at home this season with a .200+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate and a 38% HC rate to boot. This looks like the perfect spot to stack up the top of the Mets order with Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Conforto with Nimmo and Cabrera being the two best plays as they have 40% HC rates against RHP this season with .230+ ISO marks.
The Rockies side of this game is one I honestly think I will fade however as Seth Lugo has quietly become a dominant arm for the Mets and I expect the game log watchers will see his blow-up in Arizona and go all in against him but be careful. Lugo on the season is giving up only 22% hard contact with am 11% swinging strike rate and a near 50% ground ball rate. All you need to do is look at his prior start against the Yankees where he went 6 shutout innings and struck out 8 to understand this is not a “can’t miss” spot and a Rockies stack could completely backfire on this slate. With that being said, I actually think Seth Lugo ($11.8K) is a viable leverage punt option in this spot for tournaments.
With so much focus on the Mets, my hope is the Yankees go a bit over-looked tonight as their match-up with Felix Hernandez is one I want to build around with the big time power bats especially from the left side. King Felix is giving up a .250 ISO to left-handed hitters this season so go ahead and lock in guys like Didi Gregorious and Greg Bird who havd .240+ ISO marks against RHP this season and do not overlook Aaron Judge who leads the team with a .324 ISO and 46% HC rate against right-handed arms this year.
Lastly, shout out to CJ Kaltenbach from Rotogrinders for this nugget – the Rangers will start infielider Isaiah Kiner-Falefa at CATCHER today against the Royals and pair him with SP Austin Bibens-Dirk who has given up 8 ER in only 11 innings of work. Whit Merrifield ($7.6K) has 16 steals on the season and it would not surprise me at all to see him test the infielder’s arm at catcher in this one as Whit has multiple stolen base upside in this spot against a battery that should allow me to get on base with ease!
My goal is to work backwards on this slate – lock in as many Mets and Yankees bats as I can, grab Merrifield as a one-off and then work into my pitching. The one mid-tier arm that really stands out to me is Yankee SP Jonathan Loaisiga ($16.2K) who steps to the mound as a -180 home favorite after an impressive debut where he struck out 6 Rays hitters in 5 shutout innings. Loaisiga has shown electric K stuff throughout the minors with a 30% or higher K rate at every stop the upside is absolutely there and as a strong home favorite, this is a great mid-tier building block that allows you to stack all the bats you want.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Jonathan Loaisiga ($16.2K)
SP: Seth Lugo ($11.8K)
IF: Todd Frazier ($9.3K)
IF: Asdrubal Cabrera ($8K)
IF: Whit Merrifield ($7.6K)
OF: Brandon Nimmo ($9.8K)
OF: Michael Conforto ($9.5K)
OF: Aaron Judge ($10.8K)
UTIL: Didi Gregorious ($8.9K)
UTIL: Greg Bird ($8.1K)
Slate Overview: As much as the early slate is all about pitching, the main slate is all about hitting and my goal is to stack the Mets and Yankees bats as my core build and mix in some Royals exposure as needed. Lugo to me is the ultimate leverage play in GPP’s as my guess is people outside of New York will simply see the Rockies Vegas total and stack against him but this is a pitcher with swing and miss stuff that has been able to limit hard contact so fading Rockies bats and doubling down by using him as your SP2 makes this an intriguing leverage GPP strategy.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!