5 winless drivers who could actually steal a Sonoma win from the Big 3

The first road course race of the 2018 NASCAR season will throw new types of curves at the Cup Series drivers, but only a handful have a real shot to knock off this year’s most dominant forces.

Much has been made of the way road course races can shake up the status quo in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. The thinking is that places like Sonoma Raceway provide such a different challenge that they could produce surprise winners, something that would definitely liven up a season that has been dominated by the so-called “Big 3” of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.

The reality is a little bit different. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 has produced nine different winners in a row, but three of them were — surprise! — the Big 3, one was Tony Stewart and another was Jimmie Johnson back when he was still Jimmie Johnson. Not exactly dark horses, and there’s a good chance one among this year’s dominant triumvirate will take the checkered flag on Sunday.

But what if they don’t? The current Cup Series field doesn’t have road course specialists like Juan Pablo Montoya, but it does feature winless drivers who have been consistent enough at Sonoma that if things break their way, they could challenge for a win.

To make this a pseudo-scientific list, we used a weighted average of the finishes for each of the last five Sonoma races, or as few as three if the driver in question hadn’t made five starts at the track. Here’s who the numbers tell us are the most likely candidates to be a first-time 2018 winner on Sunday.

5. Paul Menard

Turns out that Menard’s unassuming consistency plays as well on road courses as it does on ovals, at least at Sonoma Raceway. His worst finish of his last five was 16th. However, his best was fifth, meaning it would be a bit of a stretch to imagine him in Victory Lane. Frankly, we’d just like to see him celebrate as we don’t remember what it’s like.

4. Ryan Newman

Far removed from the days when he’d win several races a year, Newman still manages to turn up with a victory when you least expect it. Sonoma is certainly a possibility, though his last five finishes there have come within an even narrower range than Menard’s, all between eighth and 15th. It would likely take some kind of strategic gamble to get him a win, but don’t count him out.

3. Jimmie Johnson

Perhaps surprisingly, Johnson was never a monster at Sonoma even when he was racking up tons of wins each season. He’s also trending the wrong way, finishing outside the top 10 the last two seasons, and his 2018 struggles have been well documented. It says a lot that it would be a shock if he won on Sunday, but maybe it shouldn’t be if the 48 team pulls it off.

2. Denny Hamlin

There was a time when road course racing seemed to perplex Hamlin, but those days are long behind him, and he’s finished in the top five each of the last two seasons. Hamlin also won at Watkins Glen in 2016, and even though that track is much different, it speaks to how he can handle the road courses and suggests he may be a factor at Sonoma.

Next: Is the XFINITY Series failing to produce Cup Series winners?

1. Kurt Busch

It’s quite possible you’ve seen the “Hey, when is Kurt Busch going to get in on the Stewart-Haas Racing victory party?” articles, and the answer could be this week. The elder Busch brother has four top-10 finishes in his last five Sonoma starts, and the outlier was 12th, which isn’t shabby at all. All evidence suggests that this will be his best car yet given the roll that SHR is on, so it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see him in contention with the Big 3 on Sunday.