De’Anthony Melton is one of the 2018 NBA Draft’s only sure bets
De’Anthony Melton might not have mattered 10 or 11 years ago.
The best teams used to have one player who dominated the ball, such as Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. Then, influenced by the 3-point revolution and the need to get players the ball on the perimeter, the best teams realized the value of multiple guys playing together who could both shoot and pass. You can notice that trend as well by looking at the types of lineups which won — in Boston, Miami and San Antonio.
Suddenly, Mario Chalmers was the type of point guard who made the most sense opposite a star, and even more impressive, teams like the Big Three Heat were winning without an elite traditional point guard.
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Since then, Chalmers types — valuable role players who can move the ball, defend and make open shots — have become highly valuable. As a result, flexible personnel allows the ball to whip around the 3-point arc, reversing from one side of the floor to another multiple times each possession. The days of isolation ball are as good as gone, and players like Chalmers and Melton are an under-appreciated part of that development.
Most statistical indicators paint Melton as exactly the type of player who will succeed in this role. The problem is he hasn’t played in over a year, leading to some mystery over his rate of improvement or rustiness. Yet you can’t argue with his production as a freshman — nearly twice as many assists (5.1 per 40 minutes) as turnovers (2.6 per 40 minutes), block and steal percentages near 4.0 each and advanced statistical ratings which placed him at the top of USC’s upstart 2016-17 squad.
In fact, Melton’s 8.3 Box Plus-Minus (which attempts to rate players using box score impact per 100 possessions) placed him just outside the top 20 in the country, despite scoring significantly less than most top college prospects.
Melton’s ultimate NBA value will be to make his teammates better. Action like in the following clip, in which Melton catches a pass in motion on the weak side of the floor, takes a couple dribbles and makes a play, will be there for him to take advantage of on offense away from his team’s stars.
If his work with Drew Hanlen since leaving USC pays off to the degree it has for many other young players, including Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum, the smooth touch he shows here will be a weapon in the NBA:
His handle is functional, and his strong frame and low center of gravity allow Melton to keep his dribble alive against aggressive defense as he drives to the basket. He will need to become a better finisher and work on his shot from distance, but overall his ball skills are solid enough that he should be playable as a secondary ball-handler at the NBA level.
And even within coach Andy Enfield’s zone at USC, Melton’s awareness and team defense instincts were on display consistently:
His frame will allow him to guard bigger players in time as well. His quick-twitch instincts toward the ball will be even more impactful in a maneuverable defense that switches screens and reacts. His skills are elite enough to become the focal point of a system like that.
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The ability to chip in doing under-appreciated dirty work for an effective Trojan squad and have that impact show up statistically shows the type of elite role player Melton has the chance to be. Maybe he needs to be on a good team for that value to shine through or maybe he is good enough to exceed his situation and excel regardless.
But know this: History has shown us that the real question is how good Melton will be, not whether he has a place in this league.