DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, June 22

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the Friday monster on our hands so let’s jump in.

We had some late night DFS MLB magic last night when big Kendrys Morales went yard in our very last at-bat to put us over the cash line. This slate was very weird because we had a pitcher get scratched very late in the process and the chalk plays completely flopped in the Cubs. It was very difficult to get a lineup together because real life lineups didn’t include players that I really wanted. I’m just happy we survived a double dong night from Luis Valbuena, whom I wound up not playing. Let’s take the money and run and dig in to the big slate.

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Pirates

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.48 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 31.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .239 average, .335 wOBA, 26.1 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .195 average, .251 wOBA, 32.6 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

I’ve been a Corbin backer all season but I don’t think this is the spot for me. It seems like he’s much more hit or miss these days and the Pirates rate much better against lefty pitching. Pittsburgh has three hitters with a wOBA over .415 this year, although one of them is Sean Rodriguez who I’m not very interested in. Both Austin Meadows and Elias Diaz have smacked lefties around with a wOBA over .500 in a short sample size. Meadows gets the ride side of the splits and has been better lefty on lefty in 2018. I wouldn’t go terribly heavy on Pirates and likely would only play Meadows or Diaz, if they start. We’ve got a lot of teams to get to and this is just a mediocre spot for both teams.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz, Austin Meadows

Secondary Options – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .324 average, .369 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .290 wOBA, 23.4 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Arizona has been going full bore on offense recently and they are one of the top stacks of the night. You have to be all over the lefties just like yesterday and that would include Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay. Marte and Jay especially are just on fire right now and are up there as some of my favorites in their positions. They are all reasonably priced and Nova doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to not get torched in this matchup. I would be more surprised if the Diamondbacks didn’t score five runs than if they did. I’ll be making the effort to have at least one bat and possibly continue to stack them .

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options.- Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Ketel Marte

Secondary Options – Jon Jay, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt

DFS MLB – Phillies at Nationals

Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP 

3.43 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .325 wOBA, 46.0 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .323 wOBA, 36.1 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

The nationals offense isn’t one you want to be bad against lefties. In fairness to Eflin, he’s cut down on his struggles against the handedness to a significant degree. His wOBA surrendered to lefties still sits over .370 for his career. In the past, we would have been all in on Nats but I would approach with a little bit of caution. Over the past 14 days, they sit at 27th in baseball in runs and Bryce Harper continues to just be lost at the dish. Adam Eaton should be back into the lineup, which helps and Juan Soto should be in as well. It’s a small nitpick since Soto is actually the active team leader in wOBA against righties but he’s actually been better against lefty pitching.  Eflin has really controlled righties and Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are likely off the table for me.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP

3.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .251 average, .326 wOBA, 36.8 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.200 average, .280 wOBA, 35.5 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

You know it’s a weird slate when I’m actually considering Roark as an option. His strikeout rate is under 20 percent which is almost always a pass for me. He’s not a great pitcher but he also normally doesn’t get blown up either. The good news for his low strikeout rate is the Phillies have the worst strikeout rate in all of baseball. They’re also 26th in average, 17th in OPS and 17th in wOBA. Roark doesn’t allow a ton of fly balls or hard hits and he’s been really god against righty hitters so far. My fear is the Phillies have lefties they can lineup against him tonight. He could face Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera. I would assume Nick Williams would make the lineup but he’s not someone you actively run away from. The biggest thing I’m chasing with Roark would be his price of $7,800 on FanDuel. you can basically have whichever bats you want.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Cubs at Reds

Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP 

4.06 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .258 wOBA, 23.9 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .329 wOBA, 36.0 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Quintana has been about the definition of average so far this season and I have no issue picking on him a little bit tonight in a bad ballpark. Since Quintana has really done work against lefty hitting, I’d be focused on the righties for the Reds. If you’re looking towards the high end of things, Eugenio Suarez really stands out. His .456 wOBA and .288 ISO look awfully appealing when he’s still under $4,000 on FanDuel. Tucker Barnhart is at one of his highest prices that I can remember all season at $2,800 but his .480 wOBA and .531 OBP appear to be worth the price of admission. If he doesn’t catch, Curt Casali is a fine punt option. If you think Quintana gets beat up, feel free to add in Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett. I would lean more towards Gennett because he’s a couple hundred cheaper and he’s been better in the split so far this year. With pitching the way it is tonight, some might want to take a look at Quintana but I don’t think I can get there.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez, whichever catcher starts

Secondary Options – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto

Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP 

5.77 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

VsLHH – .284 average, .379 wOBA, 41.6 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .323 wOBA, 28.4 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

If you liked the Cubs lefty hitters last night, you have to be wiling to go right back to them tonight. Castillo has struggled with them all year long and they all actually went down in price from yesterday. I’m not sure what the logic is for them falling but I’ll take it where I can get it. The most expensive option is Anthony Rizzo but he’s still just $4,000. If you fit him with Max Scherzer, it’s a breeze to fit him tonight. Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber are firmly in play again and this could be a time when so many people are angry at the previous day, it’s going to lower ownership today. That would be fantastic because the spot is almost identical and they were chalky, although it was a smaller slate. I can’t see much of a reason to use Castillo this evening.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Ian Happ

Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Tigers at Indians

Tigers Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP 

4.09 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .265 average, .346 wOBA, 43.1 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .287 average, .349 wOBA, 43.7 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

A lot of these metrics should be considerably worse for Fiers considering just how many fly balls he gives up. A team like the Indians might be the punish him for it and we have cheap enough pitching to take a chunk of the Cleveland offense. I’m likely not heading here in cash because we have one of the better spots we’ve had all year coming up in a few games. You have to really like Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor here. Ramirez is flat destroying righties this year with a .441 wOBA and a .365 ISO. That’s not who you wan to give up fly balls to and Lindro isn’t all that much worse. If you only pay one, Ramirez is the one you want for just $200 more on FanDuel. I don’t know how he did it, but Fiers did go for 46 FanDuel points two starts ago against this Cleveland lineup. I don’t expect a repeat tonight.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

3.97 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 25.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .455 average, .536 wOBA, 46.2 fly ball rate and 57.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .188 average, .165 wOBA, 10.0 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

The spits look very poor for Bieber but he’s faced the Twins in both of his major league starts so far. They have a lot of lefties so it’s not surprising that the splits are skewed. What stands out so far with Bieber is his 37.5 percent strikeout rate to righty hitters. That’s a massive number and the Tiger have a good chunk of their lineup made up of righty hitters and some not very good ones at that. The lefties are a touch concerning because Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario are solid hitters. Niko Goodrum could get Bieber but I wouldn’t say is a massive threat. Past those three, most of the everyday players are righty. Bieber has been close to hitting six innings pitched threshold in each start and does have some pedigree. He’s in the running if you want all the bats tonight.

Tigers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Mets

Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .260 wOBA, 20.8 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .299 wOBA,35.1 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

At a guess, I would say we’ve arrived at the chalk pitcher of the slate. First, Wood is under $7,500 so you have plenty left over to build a quality offense. Secondly, he draws the best possible matchup a lefty can have in baseball. They are last or 29th in average, ISO, OPS and wOBA. This is also to go along with the second highest strikeout rate in the league. Wood can strike out batters when everything is going right. He’s got a higher than normal injury risk but it might be something you have to live with. Pitching is basically a mess on this slate. Corbin is the most expensive but I’m not too hot for him at this point. There’s not a lot to love against lefties from the Mets and it appears they still are a little high in price coming out of Coors. The only two I might be interested in are Wilmer Flores and Devin Mesoraco.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Devin Mesoraco

Secondary Options – Wilmer Flores

Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.39 wOBA, 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .319 wOBA, 40.2 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .307 wOBA, 33.8 fly ball rate and 24.8 hard hit rate

I’m not going to play Wheeler even though he is at home because the Dodgers are a solid offense. The fly balls and hard hit from the lefties are definitely attractive and if Joc Pederson is leading off he’s borderline locked in. He’s just way too cheap for how he’s been hitting lately and potential spot in a good lineup. He has a .322 ISO and .416 wOBA against righties so far. Max Muncy is right around those same numbers but he’s $3,800 while Pederson is $2,400. I can’t understand that big of a gap. Even though he’s on the wrong side of the split and he’s hit the skids lately, $3,100 seems like a solid buy-low option for Matt Kemp. Cody Bellinger and his .215 ISO should be able to do some damage tonight as well.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Cody Bellinger, Jon Pederson, Max Muncy

Secondary Options – Matt Kemp, Justin Turner

Home Run Pick – Joc Pederson

DFS MLB – Yankees at Rays

Yankees Probable Starter – C.C. Sabathia, LHP 

3.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .208 average, .325 wOBA, 32.4 fly ball rate and 17.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .296 wOBA, 38.6 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

I just can’t get on board with Sabathia tonight even though he does see a very positive park shift. He did just have a great game against this lineup in his last start but that’s kind of a strike against him. I don’t ever like using pitchers on back to back starts against the same team and I don’t expect to see Sabathia strikeout another 10 hitters tonight. We definitely want to go after righty hitters here. Adeiny Hechavaria is a fin punt option at shortstop and if you’re chasing power, you’re going to look toward Wilson Ramos and C.J. Cron. It’s a little difficult to expect power in this park and this side of the game isn’t one I want a big piece of.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilson Ramos

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Adeiny Hechavaria, Jake Bauers

Rays Probable Starter – Ryne Stanek, RHP 

As is normal when the Rays are doing one of their highly annoying bullpen days, I’m just going to take a shot at the best Yankee hitters. We’ll keep an eye on who will pitch the bulk of the innings to see what kind of splits we can attack but you can’t go that wrong with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. I’m not deploying Gary Sanchez all that often at the moment because he’s really not hitting well. I would rather find a little more money and play a different Yankee like Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar. With a Coors Game on tap, I don’t see myself buying into New York on the road. They can beat up any pitcher but would be more of a GPP option right now.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Options – Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar

Home Run Pick – Gleyber Torres

DFS MLB – Mariners at Red Sox

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .246 average, .298 wOBA, 45.7 fly ball rate and 27.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .280 wOBA, 42.5 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

I’m part of the group that continually says how poor the Red Sox are against lefty pitching this year but even I didn’t expect a 60 point performance from LeBlanc his last time out against these Red Sox in Seattle. It’s still odd that Boston is so bad against southpaws but the numbers are the numbers at this point. They are 27th in baseball in OPS, ISO and wOBA. That’s something to take seriously. One of the reasons the rate poorly is J.D. Martine struggling a little bit against lefties this season. His ISO is down at .131 compared to his .516 mark last season. I will say that he’s down to $4,300 on FanDuel and that’s about as low as you’ll get him this season. It’s a good spot because Martinez is not this bad and a breakout is coming. LeBlanc has a really good price and the numbers point towards a good matchup but I’m not sure I can hit submit with LeBlanc pitching.

Red Sox Hitters to target 

Elite Options – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts

Secondary Options – Brock Holt, Andrew Benintendi

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Steven Wright, RHP 

1.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .156 average, .225 wOBA, 23.8 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

VS RHH -.163 average, .232 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 26.4 hard hit rate

This is a spot that I would break my normal rule about not pitching someone who just saw the same offense. Sure, seeing Steven Wright’s knuckle ball just one start ago does help the Mariners a little bit. At the same time, there’s not much that can prepare a team for a knuckle ball. They all move differently every time out and it comes down to if the knuckle is moving or not. If it is, Wright will likely have a good game. He’s yet to score under 34 points in any of his three starts this year. If the pitch has no movement Wright will get hammered. It’s going to be the same song and dance every time he pitches this year. Seattle is GPP only for that exact reason.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – J.D. Martinez

DFS MLB – Orioles at Braves

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

7.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 14.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .370 average, .438 wOBA, 35.1 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .312 average, .379 wOBA, 26.5 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

If there’s a spot that rivals Coors Field tonight, I think we’re looking at it. Freddie Freeman is so underpriced on FanDuel that I might go with two big Rockies and him instead of three Rockies. $4,400 for Freeman seems like stealing. Atlanta is priced really fair across the board, possibly because they’re a better team against lefty pitching. Nick Markakis and Ender Iciarte are very much in play as lineup fillers around Colorado bats, as is Johan Camargo and Kurt Suzuki. Freeman stands out as the clear best play and then I think Markakis and Suzuki are next in line. I personally think you’re crazy if you pitch Cobb, but I would have said that about Matt Harvey against the Cubs yesterday.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki

Secondary Options – Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .163 average, .307 wOBA, 38.2 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .208 average, .259 wOBA, 33.1 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

If I have the money comfortably, Newcomb would be my pitcher of choice this evening. I’m leaning more towards Coors which will require every dollar in the budget but that doesn’t stop Newcomb from being in a really good spot tonight. Baltimore is in the bottom half of the league in ISO, OPS and soba against lefties and even though they don’t strike out at a terrible rate, Newcomb can make up for that. He’s been excellent so far this year and Baltimore is also in the bottom five in runs scored during the last two week period. I would really only play Manny Machado or Danny Valencia. Machado has been so quiet lately that he’s under $4,000 on FanDuel, which is crazy to think about. Valencia is cheap and it should be noted that Mark Trumbo is heating up a bit as well. I much prefer Newcomb to any other player on this side of the game.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia

Home Run Pick- Freddie Freeman

DFS MLB – Royals at Astros

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

5.55 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .268 wOBA, 41.9 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .274 average, .373 wOBA, 48.6 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

We have yet another gas can on the mound and we still haven’t gotten to Colorado yet. It’s 11:57 PM on Thursday night as I’m writing this and I’m already pulling big time for Max Stassi and his .278 ISO and 1.036 OPS to be in the lineup because he is a tiny $2,300 on FanDuel. You could really go with a full bore Astros stack here if you wanted to and it should come in pretty far under Rockies in terms of stacking. George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are all between $4,000 and $4,300 on FanDuel and they’re honestly all about equal. It’s probably more about the way you construct your roster as far as who you pick tonight. They should be able to work over Duffy without much of an issue.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Any of the big four, Max Stassi

Secondary Options – Evan Gattis, Yuli Gurriel

Astros Probable Starter – Dallas Keuchel, LHP 

4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .310 average, .346 wOBA, 11.9 fly ball rate and 25.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .306 wOBA, 26.5 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

The Houston pitcher hasn’t had the season he’s wanted but he’s in a solid spot tonight as far as the opposition goes. The Royals have a below average offense by almost every stat we look at. The only thing that isn’t quite there are the strikeouts but that’s never been Keuchel’s game anyways. Yet another pitcher facing the same opponent as he did the last time and that is something that gives me pause with Keuchel. The Royals are just so poor on offense right now that it wouldn’t surprise me if Keuchel rolled them again on his way to a win and a quality start. The only Royal hitter that I’m interested in is Whit Merrifield as he eats lefties for breakfast.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Max Stassi and Carlos Correa

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Brewers

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

2.66 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 26.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .236 average, .299 wOBA, 34.8 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .202 average, .262 wOBA, 41.3 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

At the risk of looking totally foolish like I did with Carlos Martinez, Flaherty does have some upside against a Brewers team that does strikeout a lot. He also has plenty of downside considering just how good the Milwaukee offense can be. On a lot of slates, I wouldn’t’t have the most interest in this game. I’m not going to target Brewers hitters because I have respect for what Flaherty is capable of. If you want to stack against the Cardinals righty, it’s the lefties once again. Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Christian Yelich and even Jesus Aguilar are all in lay but I’m more likely to stack them then trying to chase a one-off.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Secondary Options – Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

2.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .299 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .288 wOBA, 42.4 fly ball rate and 43.2 hard hit rate

Guerra is a pitcher that infuriates me. He shouldn’t be nearly as good as he is from his ERA and WHIP but he keeps working with it somehow. He could get whacked against a righty heavy offense which the Cardinals do have but I’m not even sure the Cardinals make the top five for offensive plays tonight. I would lean a little bit towards players like Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham and Marcell Ozuna but I’m not going crazy over them. It’s not a terrible idea to mix in Yadier Molina if you go with a full Cardinals stack. I’m very likely to skip this game altogether.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Ozuna

Home Run Pick – Marcell Ozuna

DFS MLB – Rangers at Twins

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP

5.35 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .299 wOBA, 27.0 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .362 wOBA, 47.0 fly ball rate and 44.6 hard hit rate

Minor hasn’t been as bad as his teammate Matt Moore but he hasn’t been very good either. I really wish I had more faith in Brain Dozier because he would be a smash play and his price is super low. He’s just been so bad this year I wouldn’t play him in anything else but a GPP. Minor has actually done a really solid job of limiting the damage lefties have done to him and that knocks off about half of the Twins lineup in my book.  If you’re not going to play Trevor Story, Ehire Adrianza is the perfect punt play at shortstop. He’s super cheap and he carries a .364 wOBA and a .841 OPS on the season. There’s not many players at his price range that have that potential. Eduardo Escobar is the only other Twins player that I would really chase. There’s just not enough righties to make me pay attention.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ehire Adrianza, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier

Twins Probable Starter – Fernando Romero, RHP 

4.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .274 average, .358 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .315 wOBA, 31.2 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

The lefties for the Rangers look to be in a pretty solid spot tonight and I’ll have some interest. It’s a little tough to pay up for Shin-soo Choo and Nomar Mazara given the rest of the plays on the board. If you want to go after the double dong potential of Joe Gallo in this spot that’s fine. Just expect at least two strikeouts the way he’s been “hitting’ lately. Can you tell he’s killing me in seasonal leagues as well? Does the bitterness come through at all? Just make a little contact Joey, my goodness. Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre aren’t the worst plays but they’re also nothing special. The only way I’d play them is a part of a Texas stack.  Romero has strikeout potential against Texas but isn’t going to be in any of my lineups.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Secondary Options – Joey Gallo(GPP), Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre

Home Run Pick – Elvis Andrus

DFS MLB – Marlins at Rockies

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yen Chen, LHP 

5.91 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 15.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .281 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rte

Vs RHH – .289 average, .386 wOBA, 48.8 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Let me tell you a (Trevor)  Story about a third baseman that plays for the Rockies. A few nights ago, Chris Sale of the Red Sox pitched on a night when Nolan Arenado drew a terrible lefty at home. Sale is one of the best fantasy pitchers currently and always carries heavy ownership even at a mammoth price tag. When this night played out, Arenado was around 65 percent owned in cash games because Arenado was put on this good Earth to destroy lefty pitching. If you play cash games and you don’t play Arenado and you don’t cash, that’s your own fault. There’s no high end pitching options tonight. Arenado should be 100% locked into any cash lineup you make. The only way you fade him is in tournament for the ope that he’s bad. To bring the Story full circle, play the Rockies shortstop as well. He’s pretty good at home against lefties as well. Even though Chen has been good against lefties so far, Charlie Blackmon should smash as well.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Ian Desmond, DJ LeMahieu

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

5.89 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 27.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .348 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .282 average, .327 wOBA, 25.7 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

I’m willing to bet that some people will on board Jon Gray tonight, citing that he was better at home last season. While that’s true, that hasn’t been the case this season as he’s been worse at home and that’s including two of his best starts on the campaign. Gray has had three good fantasy starts so far and two of them have come against the San Diego Padres. That hardly counts and even though he’s struck out a combined 19 hitters his last two starts, that’s come with nine earned runs. No thanks, I’m good over here. I’d rather roll the dice on Bieber from Cleveland or Wright from Boston. Heck, Alex Wood is only $600 more. I can’t see any reason to pitch him tonight and I’m going to pass on the inflated prices of the Marlins hitters, Coors or not.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, Brian Anderson

Home Run Pick – Arenado and Story go back to back again

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Angels

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marco Estrada, RHP 

4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .317 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 24.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .296 average, .385 wOBA, 56.3 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

My goodness is this a bad spot for Estrada. The Angels may well put a lineup out with eight righties and one lefty who has been scorching hot since he’s come off the disabled list. This very well might be a Mike Trout night. The dude is just a machine right now and he can’t be kept off the base paths. That amount of fly balls to Trout will not end well, full stop. I might try and play Trout with Freeman, Arenado and Story all together. That might not be feasible but we’ll see what happens. I may even put Trout ahead of Story. The one lefty is Kole Calhoun who has just been smashing since his return to the lineup and helped us get over the hump last night.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons

Secondary Options – Kole Calhoun, Ian Kinsler

Angels Probable Starter – TBA

As of this writing, we don’t know who the starter will be for the Angels. It was supposed to be John Lamb but he had to make a spot start last night when Tyler Skaggs got scratched. Since we don’t know that information yet, it’s basically not possible to break things down yet. Stay tuned on Twitter and I’ll have a mini-breakdown when we start to figure things out.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

TBA

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Padres at Giants

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP 

4.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .271 wOBA, 7.8 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .320 wOBA, 25.1 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

I’d be lying if I said I really cared about this game all that much. That slate is so large and the park is so poor for hitters I just don’t want to mess with this spot. However, if you want to they and use this game as late leverage you do have some options. I would look toward Nick Hundley If he makes the lineup as he’s been torturing lefty pitching all season. Andrew McCutchen has seen his price go back down and he’s not an awful play at all. Richard is a weird pitcher because he’s really not good but he can frustrate an offense by generating a ton of ground balls. Between that, the other offensive spots  and the park, there’s not a major reason to fit in the Giants offense.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nick Hundley, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Options – Buster Posey, Alen Hanson

Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .326 wOBA, 33.1 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .306 wOBA, 37.1 fly ball rate and 51.0 hard hit rate

The splits are about equal for Stratton so that makes it a little easier to just pick the best hitters for the Padres. Actually figuring out who that is can be the challenge in San Diego. Eric Hosmer and either Travis Jankowski or Wil Myers would really be where I would head. Jankoskiw and Myers both have stolen base upside which will help negate the fact that they’re in a bad hitter’s park that it will be unlikely to surrender a home run. San Diego has been one of the worst offenses over the past two weeks and I’m not climbing on the train now.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski, Wil Meyers

Home Run Pick – None, for the second straight day with these teams

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P- Alex Wood 

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C/1B – Freddie Freeman

2B – Ketel Marte

3B – Nolan Arenado

SS – Trevor Story 

OF – Joc Pederson, Nick Markakis, Jason Heyward

Utility – Max Stassi

I still can’t decide if I want to shoehorn Trout in this lineup but it wouldn’t be all that hard to do if that’s where we decide to go. I might just roll with Alex Wood even though I’m not happy about it at all. Especially if he’s chalky, that makes it a little easier to swallow. Freeman is locked into my lineup at his price, no arguments about it. Marte is on fire and on the right side of the splits. I’m pairing Arenado and Story without hesitation in cash games. We take a bunch of value past that but it’s pretty easy to take a studs and duds approach. Even though this is a big slate, my cash lineup might be relatively easy to figure out. It’s the tournament lineups that could be a question.

The Core – Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, Max Stassi(if active)

Stacks to Consider – Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Los Angels Angels

Next: Friday's World Cup DFS Picks and Plays

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.