DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, June 23

Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a medium sized 10 game slate on tap today so let’s jump in.

We had to wait for an awfully long time but the three man Braves stack came through last night at the tail end of our MLB DFS night. The scores were not as high as I thought they might be. That probably had more to do with some chalky offense staying very quiet. The Astros didn’t score at all and the Yankees scored once. I did mostly miss out on the scoring bonanza that was the Red Sox game but it appeared a lot of people did. A win is a win, no matter how it comes. Let’s get rolling on Saturday’s slate.

DFS MLB – Rangers at Twins

Rangers Probable Starter – Yovani Gallardo, RHP 

15.95 ERA, 2.86 WHIP and 14.0 strikeout rate

I’m not going to bother with the plaits here because Gallardo doesn’t belong in the majors right now. There’s no need to get picky and we just want the best hitters available for the Twins. This could finally be the breakout spot for Brian Dozier and he’s only $3,400 on FanDuel. Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison are both dirt cheap and Morrison especially has a chance to leave the yard. Eddie Rosario might be my favorite play of any Twins, especially if Eduardo Escobar is not active. Both of those players have a wOBA over .400 against righty pitching, and Gallardo shouldn’t present virtually any challenge. They might be the first team on the list but it’s hard to imagine a team drawing a better matchup today. Minnesota has been pretty quiet these past couple of weeks. This could be the day that comes to an end.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar(if active), Logan Morrison, Brian Dozier

Secondary Options – Joe Mauer, Max Kepler

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .357 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .344 wOBA, 51.8 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

If you just put up the fly balls and hard hit rate, this would be a spot that I’d want to load up on the opposing offense. Somehow, Odorizzi makes it work to some extent. I’m not saying he’s a great pitcher, but those metrics would lead me to think he’s a gas can. I can’t blame anyone loading up on Rangers because they have the power to destroy Odorizzi. I would stick with the hitters that we all know and love here. Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Adrian Beltre would lead the charge and then you can mix in the high risk, high reward options of Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo. Just beware Odorizzi has a respectable strikeout rate and the Rangers own the third highest strikeout percentage against right handed pitching. That’s enough to keep me off Gallo.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Options – Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo

Home Run Pick – Brian Dozier

DFS MLB – A’s at White Sox

A’s Probable Starter – Daniel Mengden, RHP

4.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 14.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .272 wOBA, 43.8 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .334 wOBA, 30.3 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard hit rate

If there’s a team that sets up for Mengden to have some success, it just might be the White Sox. They strike out so much against either handedness so that could raise the ceiling for Mengden, which is usually the problem for him. I’m not sure if that’s where I’ll head for the day, but he’s at least on the radar. One hitter that I want to take  a shot with is Yoan Moncada. If you’re not going to miss bats and you’re giving up that amount of fly balls and hard hits, that’s in the wheelhouse for Moncada. He’s got the power to put the ball into the seats in this spot. A carbon copy of this play is Matt Davidson as well. Chicago’s offense has been so bad that I think it’s Moncada, Davidson, Jose Abreu or nothing in this spot.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada, Matt Davidson

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP

2.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .324 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .237 wOBA, 18.5 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Covey got worked over last start, but he’s been a quality pitcher more often than not. It didn’t help that he faced the Indians for the third time in short order last time out. Oakland has a really good offense, but I’m probably not loading up on A’s here. Covey has a pretty high ground ball rate and that always concerns me. This is kind of a wait and see game for me. Covey has had some really good games and he’s capable of doing it again. It’s mostly the lefties here for me. Matt Olson has the power we want and Matt Joyce is very cheap. Dustin Fowler is fine if he’s leading off, but you might need some steals to really score some points. Khris Davis is a better hitter against righty pitching, but I’m not sure I’ll spend on him unless I’m stacking Oakland.  Franklin Barreto has been smashing baseballs, but he’s a punt only.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Matt Joyce

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Dustin Fowler

DFS MLB – Marlins at Rockies

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

5.45 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .212 average, .302 wOBA, 40.4 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .313 average, .383 wOBA, 36.2 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard hit rate

I usually only pay up for Nolan Arenado when he’s facing a lefty in Coors, but after seeing some of these reverse splits, I might consider it today. You really can’t go wrong with Charlie Blackmon here either. What’s going to be interesting is trying to figure out how much Coors we need today. It’s not like Richards is a good pitcher that we need to fear. It’s just not the same utter smash spot as last night was. If Tom Murphy is in the lineup again, he could be a solid way to get “cheap” exposure to this game. I feel like my exposure to Coors today might not be quite as much of a priority as it was yesterday. Let’s see how the rest of the slate shakes out.

Rockies Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Tom Murphy, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .432 wOBA, 37.2 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .316 wOBA, 40.6 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

If you like living dangerously, Anderson might actually have a little bit of appeal today. First off, he’s dirt cheap at just $6,000 on FanDuel. You don’t need him to go out and dominate at that price tag. While this game is in Coors, Miami has the lowest ISO in baseball against lefties and the second lowest wOBA. The big hitters that we normally worry about in Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto both have wOBA’s under .290 against southpaws. Brian Anderson is an option, but $3,700 makes me nervous. I always hate pitching someone in Denver, but the Miami offense is dreadful against the handedness and Anderson is a talented pitcher. He could be just enough for his price tag and the bats you can play with him are enticing.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brian Anderson

Secondary Options – Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto

Home Run Pick –  DJ LeMahieu

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Pirates

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP 

3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .312 wOBA, 29.6 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .319 wOBA, 42.2 fly ball rate and 45.6 hard hit rate

These two teams might be a little sleepy for this game after playing some extra baseball last night, but I still am not all that interested in Grienke. He’s given up at least three earned runs in four of his past six starts and he just doesn’t seem like he’s the same pitcher anymore. The strikeouts appear solid, but a big part of that is he’s pitching fewer innings and they’re buoyed up  by some nine and 10 strikeout games. Those are few and far between anymore for Greinke. The Bucs offense is generally boom or bust. I would chase hitters like Starling Marte, Josh Harrison or Austin Meadows. Their leader in wOBA against righties is Francisco Cervelli, who was placed on the concussion disabled list yesterday. I don’t believe I’ll be terribly invested in this side of the game.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Austin Meadows, Starling Marte, Josh Harrison

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .293 wOBA, 36.8 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .309 wOBA, 34.7 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

Musgrove just saw the Diamondbacks in Arizona two starts ago and really wasn’t all that bad. He logged a quality start, but he’s been a tough pitcher to peg so far. He’s been all over the place and I don’t think he’s more than an average pitcher at the end of the day. The fly ball and hard hit rate would point me towards the lefties and that’s where some strong offensive players for Arizona are. Jon Jay, Ketel Marte, David Peralta and Jake Lamb could all have a pretty big game, and I think Peralta is my favorite play of the bunch. Paul Goldschmidt is also a great play, as is always the case anymore. These two teams are very likely to put up more runs than they did yesterday.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jon Jay, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte

Home Run Pick – Jake Lamb

DFS MLB – Phillies at Nationals

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .254 wOBA, 25.4 fly ball rate and 23.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .201 average, .249 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Nola very well might be the chalk today and I can’t make a strong argument against it. The Nationals offense looks really good on paper, but they haven’t been living up to that for a while. They’ve been a little better, but the bar was low there for awhile. Nola got beat up by the Brewers last time out and he walked four hitters in under five innings. That’s not something that’s normal for him and I wouldn’t expect it again. I don’t have a ton of fear with Nola today and may very well end up playing him. There isn’t a split to chase after, and even if I don’t wind up playing Nola, I’m not really going to play Nationals unless it’s a full stack. I do not expect a consecutive poor start from Nola.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Stack them or leave them alone

Nationals Probable Starter – Erick Fedde, RHP 

5.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .393 wOBA, 17.4 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .314 average, .341 wOBA, 34.6 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

Philly might be one of the better stacking options on the slate given the fact Fedde has not looked very good so far. He hasn’t shown an ability to strike out enough hitters to make up for giving up runs. Philly has started to come back to life and I kind of wish that Odubel Herrera wasn’t so red hot right now. That sounds contradictory, but the dude has homered in five straight games. The odds of him making it six aren’t the highest, but it’s hard to not want to play him. Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, and Rhys Hoskins are all in prime spots. Santana especially is very affordable at just $3,400 on FanDuel. Any of the top four hitters here should be on your radar for today.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – The 1-4 hitters

Secondary Options – Nick Williams

Home Run Pick – Cesar Hernandez

DFS MLB – Padres at Giants

Padres Probable Starter – Jordan Lyles, RHP 

4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .185 average, .254 wOBA, 41.5 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .315 average, .380 wOBA, 33.9 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

The reverse splits for Lyles are very weird. The fly balls might not come back to hurt him since he’s pitching in AT&T Park, but the Giants offense can still get to him. I’m tempted to play Andrew McCutchen because of the reverse splits, and even though Cutch has cooled down a little bit, his price has come down as well. My only issue is playing non-power hitters in this park. Even given Lyles and lefty hitters, it’s a little hard to not look at Brandon Belt. He smacks around righty pitching and I tend to side with the hitter against an average pitcher. It’s fair to note that Pablo Sandoval has been hitting well lately and is still extremely cheap on FanDuel.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Belt, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Options – Pablo Sandoval, Alen Hanson

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

4.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .180 average, .216 wOBA, 32.6 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .296 average, .358 wOBA, 31.0 fly ball rate and 46.9 hard hit rate

I really want to go right back to Christian Villanueva in this spot. Yes, he let us down the other night, but Madison Bumgarner got right in a hurry against San Diego. Suarez isn’t the same type of pitcher, and Villanueva just destroys lefties to such a major extent, it’s hard to not get excited. The strikeout rate could jump up and bite you here. Suarez strikes out a decent amount of righty hitters and the San Diego offense hasn’t been going well at all lately. Hunter Renfroe, Will Myers, and Jose Pirela are all options as well and they’re best served as a lineup filler or an all righty stack. Suarez has shown that he will struggle a little bit against righties. There are more trustworthy offenses in better environments to hit so don’t get too carried away.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Villanueva, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Options – Wil Myers, Jose Pirela

Home Run Pick – Huner Renfroe

DFS MLB – Orioles at Braves

Orioles Probable Starter – Dylan Bundy, RHP 

3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 26.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .295 average, .372 wOBA, 48.0 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .270 wOBA, 47.4 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

These two teams are going to be very tired today as they didn’t end last night until after 1 am. That does weigh into any decision for the offensive players, so I don’t think I’ll have too much exposure here. I really want two hitters from Atlanta and that’s Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis. Bundy cannot keep the ball in the park against against any hitter really, but I would rather take the average and the wOBA against lefty hitters. Bundy gets a slight uptick considering how late the game went last night. With his strikeout rate, there’s a really solid chance at a good start today whether the Orioles win the game for him or not.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Options – Nick Markakis

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Tehran, RHP 

3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .219 average, .339 wOBA, 45.7 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .295 wOBA, 43.1 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Teheran is a terrifying play today with his fly ball rate in his home ball park, but Baltimore is not a good offense. They had one good inning last night and basically did nothing else. Teheran has seen some good results at points this year and has also gotten hit hard plenty of times. The Orioles just strike out so much there is a scenario where Teheran could have a game of about 40 points.  There’s always a worry about a mediocre pitcher against an offense that has the power Baltimore does. I don’t have a ton of faith in Teheran as there’s a lot of metrics that point to him being a poor pitcher. I’d rather leave this game be, but if you want a piece of it on this side, it’s Manny Machado and maybe Mark Trumbo. Freeman is the best piece by far from either side.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – Cubs at Reds

Cubs Probable Starter – Luke Farrell, RHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 34.2 strikeout rate

Farrell only has 17 innings under his belt this season, so I’m not very worried about the splits. I’m more excited to attack a very inexperienced pitcher who will be on the road in what could be a game where’s he’s just got to go as long as he can. The Cubs rotation is jumbled up from a double header, and hitters like Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, and Scooter Gennett have to be licking their chops here. The strikeout rate isn’t something to get too concerned about here as Farrell has worked exclusively out of the pen this season. His strikeout rate drops by 12 percentage points against lefties while giving up a 55.0 percent fly ball rate to the handedness. Being in Cincinnati could prove to be a very bad mix for him. This side of the game and Coors are likely the best two spots on the slate.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker

Secondary Options – Eugenio Suarez

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .321 average, .417 wOBA, 45.5 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .294 average, .334 wOBA,  37.5 fly ball rate and 62.5 hard hit rate

In some ways, DeSclafani really hasn’t been all that bad this year. He’s coming off a major injury and is around average ERA and WHIP, along with striking some hitters out. We’ve been interested in the Cubs lefties a few times in the recent days, and we’ll probably be smart to continue that pattern today. DeSclafani has had a history of struggling with lefty hitters, so this isn’t an isolated thing. Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo are all in play and Heyward might be my favorite of the three due to price point. Rizzo is under $4,000, which is usually about the time I really want to play him. Heyward probably has the most amount of safety out of these three guys and I wouldn’t talk you out of a full game stack here. DeSclafani isn’t fooling righty hitters either.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Home Run Pick – Joey Votto

DFS MLB – Yankees at Rays

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP 

4.89 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .314 wOBA, 22.0 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .273 average, .350 wOBA, 35.8 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Do we dare take a shot at Sonny Gray here? I think I might because Gray has been a night and day pitcher depending on if he’s in Yankee Stadium or on the road. Not only is he on the better side of that split, he sees a massively positive park shift and he draws an offense that has been ice cold lately. Playing him over Nola opens up $1,200 in salary, which is no small number. Gray’s walk/strikeout ratio changes dramatically on the road as well. This is the perfect spot for him. This is a rare spot that I don’t want any hitters.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Rays Probable Starter – Wilmer Font, RHP 

7.56 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .446 wOBA, 44.7 fly ball rate and 46.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .375 wOBA, 43.8 fly ball rate and 42.2 hard hit rate

Font came out of nowhere in his last start to hold these same Yankee hitters to one run in four+ innings. I’d be pretty shocked if that happened again today and there’s no reason to not like some Yankee hitters. I’d be focused mainly on the lefties here and both Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius are very easy to fit. Shortstop is kind of gross today so Gregorius may wind up chalky even though he’s cooled off a good deal since his hot start. As long as Gardner is hitting leadoff and is $2,900 in a really good offense, he’s close to a lock. New York was very quiet last night and they likely won’t stay that way for long.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge

Secondary Options – Greg Bird, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Home Run Pick – Brett Gardner

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Brewers

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .315 wOBA, 30.1 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .166 average, .195 wOBA, 24.2 fly ball rate and 27.3 hard hit rate

Mikolas has been a little bit worse lately, and isn’t on my radar for today’s slate. Sure, the Brewers have a good deal of righties and Mikolas has crushed them to dust so far. That doesn’t mean the lefties can’t do some damage in a good hitter’s park. I probably won’t play them myself, but Eric Thames and Travis Shaw continue to be in solid spots. The lack of fly balls complicates things, but the hard hit rate suggests Mikolas isn’t fooling lefty batters too much. Shaw or Thames can leave the yard in a hurry. They wouldn’t be my primary options, but the Milwaukee lefties that include Christian Yelich could be very good plays today.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Secondary Options – Christian Yelich

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

4.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .305 wOBA, 43.4 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .332 wOBA, 43.8 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Anderson got waxed in his last start against the Phillies, and he doesn’t have the type of stuff that I’m trusting today. Matt Carpenter continues to just rake and he’s trying to redeem himself from a terrible start to the season. The splits point towards righty hitters a little more than lefties. That could make me lean towards Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, and Marcell Ozuna. When there’s a pitcher like Anderson on the mound and the outcomes are all over the board, I tend to skip that game unless I have no choice. On a ten gamer with Coors and the Reds at least on here, I’ll take my chances not having much exposure.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Home Run Pick –  Marcell Ozuna

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup

More from FanSided

• Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions

P – Sonny Gray 

C/1B – Joey Votto

2B – Yoan Moncada

3B – Christian Villanueva

SS – Didi Gregorius 

OF – Brett Gardner, Jason Heyward, Jesse Winker

Utility – Rhys Hoskins 

Baseball can be a fickle game but this offense looks pretty stacked right now. Gray is certainly risky but I’m happy to take the savings to build the better offense than pitching Nola in case the Nationals hitters wake up. We get a piece of the Reds with Votto and Winker, a Cubbie with Heyward, and a couple of lefty Yankee hitters. From there, we take three one-offs with massive home run potential. Those three guys have plenty of pop in their bats and that could show up this afternoon. I’m a little bit partial to this build as of this writing. My one issue is this lineup fades Coors Field completely, which I’m never a huge fan of.

The Core – Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Brett Gardner

Stacks To Consider – Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees

Next: MLB Fantasy Waiver Wire Advice

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.