DraftKings Early MLB Picks June 23: Fear and Loathing in the top tier of pitchers
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks June 23: Fear and Loathing in the top tier of pitchers
No, Johnny Depp won’t be making an appearance. Also, Michael A. Marteny wrote this column instead of Hunter S. Thompson. And there was no heavy use of mescaline or other forms of pharmaceutical courage in the publishing of this article. However, this top pitching tier is an absolute nightmare. It makes us fear the outcome and loathe the DraftKings pricing. Where do we turn to? Glad you asked! I’ve got some for you!
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There are still rain chances in Pittsburgh and Washington, but it is less than last night. My general feeling is that both will play without many issues.
Wind is blowing out to left at 12 mph in Pittsburgh. We do have a nice 14 mph wind out to left in both Atlanta and Cincinnati, so look for more offense there. As usual, there is a customary 15 mph wind out to left center in San Francisco.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
I don’t say this often, but I hate this entire tier. There is no one up here worth the money. All of them have horrible career stats against today’s opponent besides Dylan Bundy, but he’s in an extreme hitters park with the wind blowing out and already has allowed a ton of long balls. Save your money. There are a ton of great mid-range options. The only one I would even consider is Nola against the slumping Nats, but his career numbers are the worst of the bunch!
Middle Tier:
Andrew Suarez ($7,900): Suarez picked up 18.8 DraftKings points in his start against the Padres this year, and has a strong 3.41 ERA at home. The Padres don’t hit anyone well. Suarez has actually held the active Padres to a pathetic .118 average in 17 at bats. There is a ton of potential here, just don’t expect a lot of strikeouts.
Dylan Covey ($7,500): Covey got beat on by Cleveland in his last start, but it was also his third start against them in three weeks. He gets an Oakland team that has some good bats in the lineup, but Covey has been money at home. He has a 1.42 ERA in three home starts. The could blow up on us, but Covey has more strikeout potential than most in this price range.
Jake Odorizzi ($7,300): There are a lot of good options in this tier today, but Odorizzi also has all sorts of stats backing him up. The current Rangers are only hitting .203 against Odorizzi with only five solo homers in 69 at bats to show for their trouble. Odorizzi’s ERA is a bit high, but he has only given up more than three runs in a game twice since April, both times against Cleveland. The Rangers are not the Indians, and Odorizzi brings nice K potential to the bargain tier.
Bargain Pitchers:
Daniel Mengden ($7,000): Mengden dominated the White Sox earlier this year, racking up 27.8 DraftKings points in eight innings of one run ball. His strikeout totals aren’t going to wow anyone, but the White Sox offense has been horrible lately. There is very good potential here even if Mengden only notches a half dozen strikeouts.
Sonny Gray ($6,900): Simply put, this is highway robbery. Gray will be in all of my lineups this afternoon! The Rays are only hitting .231 against Gray, but they have six homers off of him from a historically horrendous thrashing in the Bronx last year. The Yankees getting Gray has made all of us forget how good he really is because Yankee Stadium is the absolute worst place for him. Gray has a strong 2.93 road ERA in seven starts this year. Want more proof? Of course you do! Gray has a 2.19 career ERA at Tropicana Field. He is going to pitch well above his price point today. Just avoid him like week old skim milk in Yankee Stadium.
Tyler Anderson ($6,200): Wondering how to harness all of that Rockies firepower into your lineup and still roster a decent pitcher? Do the same thing you did last night! Jon Gray dominated the Marlins, and Anderson should to the same. He shut the Fish down in Florida earlier this year in relief and in his start against them last year. I’m all over this potential!
Minnesota Twins vs. Yovani Gallardo:
I saw Gallardo pitching in AAA ball less than a month ago, and he wasn’t very good there. At times the Twins have hit like a minor league team, but there is still some talent on this offense. Brian Dozier is 9-18 with a homer and five RBI off of Gallardo, so any stack starts with him. Mauer is hitting .409 with four RBI off of Gallardo. LoMo is way too cheap for the power potential here. I’m also a huge fan of Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler here. Honestly, I don’t know that you can go wrong with a Twins bat today.
Colorado Rockies vs. Trevor Richards:
We have another Coors Field virgin here. I think it would be more humane for the Rockies to just go back to the stone age and throw him into a volcano. This is going to get ugly. The usual lefty mashers in Blackmon and CarGo are in play, and there is no way I’m sitting Arenado right now. Trevor Story is always a good play as well, and LeMahieu batting leadoff is in a good spot. I also like Gerardo Parra with a righty on the hill.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Erick Fedde:
Fedde has struggled so far in the majors, but two of his three starts were against the Yankees. Welcome to the show, kid! However, he didn’t pitch well against the Padres either, so I have no qualms about stacking a streaking offense against him. Odubel Herrera has now homered in five straight. Start the stack there! Cesar Hernandez batting leadoff needs to be in there, as does the power of Santana and Hoskins. Polish it off with Nick Williams and a bottle of Yuengling.
San Francisco Giants vs. Jordan Lyles:
Lyles, like in much of his career, has ghastly reverse splits. Righties are killing him! The Giants don’t have a lot of power in a park that tempers it, but there is a lot of room in that outfield. I’m all over Posey and McCutchen here. Cutch is 12-21 with two homers and eight RBI off of Lyles already! Hunter Pence has also homered against Lyles, and the hot Panda is worth a look as well. Don’t forget about Nick Hundley if he starts!
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chase Anderson:
Anderson has a 5.70 ERA in eight Miller Park starts, including allowing four runs in four innings to the Cardinals earlier this year. There is no way I’m using Anderson at home. A Cardinals stack is pretty affordable, and Matt Carpenter is seeing beach balls instead of baseballs lately. Tommy Pham has homered twice against Anderson in just 11 at bats. Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler have the others. I also like Jose Martinez and Jedd Gyorko for the power potential against a guy that has allowed 13 homers in eight home starts this year.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Luke Farrell:
Farrell will escape the bullpen for one start. Honestly, I don’t think Farrell goes deep into the game here regardless of how he pitches. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are elite plays here. I also love the light tower power of Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez. Sprinkle in Billy Hamilton, who would be a Hall of Famer if he played the Cubs 162 times per year, and you have a nice pivot stack off of Coors chalk.
Chicago Cubs vs. Anthony DeSclafani:
DeSclafani has done well to come back from an arm injury, but he allows a lot of fly balls. That’s a bad thing in his park. However, it takes a giant leap of faith to do this since the Cubs have had a slow series in Cincy so far. Well, the Cubs have a fan base built on more than a century of faith, so Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Heyward, and Baez are a nice stack if you choose to follow the power.
New York Yankees vs. Wilmer Font:
Font caught lightning in a bottle against the Yankees in his last start. That isn’t happening again. Fire up the Judge, Stanton, and Didi for sure. Gary Sanchez is actually starting to make hard contact again, so that’s a good sign. Sign him up too. Finish it with a healthy dose of Greg Bird. The Tampa bullpen is going to be in earlier than expected today.
Next: Other notes for 6-23
Top Tier:
If you really want Marlins exposure at Coors, even after yesterday, the best options are Realmuto and Brian Anderson. However, I’m not paying five grand for either of them. There are better options, most of them at lower prices.
Miles Mikolas has great numbers against everyone but the Brewers this year. MIlwaukee has hit him hard both times. Eric Thames, Lorenzo Cain, and Manny Pina have all homered off of him, and Travis Shaw has scored three runs. If it weren’t for the great peripherals on Mikolas, I would turn this into a full blown stack.
Aaron Nola‘s numbers against the Nats are terrifying: .301 with five homers and 15 runs in only 93 at bats. That said, The Nationals offense is struggling, and Nola is on a roll sans the hiccup last week against the Brewers. My gut reaction is to leave this alone from both sides, but Bryce Harper is 8-17 with two homers and five RBI off of Nola. He is very tempting under five grand!
Joe Musgrove is painfully average. Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta are not. You know where I’m going with this. Honestly, PNC Park being a pitcher’s haven is the only thing stopping a stack.
Dylan Bundy better hope the Braves are tired because he has allowed 18 homers in 15 starts. Freddie Freeman looks like an elite play here, but I’m not stacking because Bundy has the stuff to shut anyone down at any given time.
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Middle Tier:
Big surprise, Jose Abreu hit a homer off of Daniel Mengden. He is about the only White Sox hitter I would consider though.
The Rangers are going to be an all or nothing proposition here. I expect Odorizzi to put up a strong start, but I also think the Rangers get at least one more solo homer off of him. Odor has two off of him so far. Gallo, Robinson Chrinos, and Beltre have the others.
Christian Villanueva homered off of Suarez earlier this year. If you are not using Arenado at third, Villanueva is worth a look.
Bargain Shoppers:
The Orioles have so many right handed hitters, that I’m finding it hard to stack against Julio Teheran. Chris Davis has two hits in three tries against Teheran. Both hits are homers and he drove in five. Oh, and he is a ridiculously cheap $2,500. A super cheap Colby Rasmus is worth a look too.
If you think Gray’s struggles against the Rays aren’t just confined to Yankee Stadium, go ahead and throw Kevin Kiermaier, who has homered off of him twice, out there. Matt Duffy, Hechavarria, Wilson Ramos, and Carlos Gomez have also taken him deep as well. Just allow me to say I told you so when these guys net you less than ten total DraftKings points combined.
The numbers for Greinke against the Pirates are not good, and they torched him earlier this season, so it wasn’t just earlier in his career. Jordy Mercer and Sean Rodriguez have both homered off of Grienke, and both come really cheap. They are nice filler within a Coors stack!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
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