MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 24th All Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Saturday, June 23rd

Before we get to today’s edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, we’ll look back at how Saturday’s suggestions fared in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Saturday’s version of the Bargain Bin was a “quick hits” version in which I provided some rapid-fire thoughts on a few of the day’s games and potential value hitting spots. I’ll review in the order in which they were given.

The Twins’ suggested bargain duo of Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier went a combined 2-for-7 with three walks (all on Dozier’s part) and two runs.

In Colorado, the Marlins’ Trevor Richards became the latest pitcher to defy his metrics and put together a quality start. However, none of the three suggested Rockies bats were in the starting lineup. Rockies starter Tyler Anderson was better than expected as well, but his vulnerability to left-handed hitters did emerge when he allowed a fourth-inning homer to suggested bargain bat Derek Dietrich. Second bargain suggestion Justin Bour was not in the starting lineup, but he laced an RBI single in a pinch-hit at-bat.

The Athletics’ Daniel Mengden was hit hard as expected, but he also suffered a foot sprain during his outing. Tim Anderson did the most damage with an early homer, but suggested bargain bats Yolmer Sanchez, Yoan Moncada, Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu and Kevan Smith also all got at least a single on the board.

The Nationals’ Erick Fedde was also much better than he’d been previously, but the Phillies still got to him for a couple of runs and then capitalized on the tired Washington bullpen I’d alluded to yesterday. Suggested bargain bat Carlos Santana smacked a solo home run, while Maikel Franco enjoyed a 4-for-4 day. Other suggestions Scott Kingery and Jorge Alfaro got on base twice each, with Kingery scoring twice and stealing once as well.

Over in Milwaukee, the runs were also hard to come by for the Cardinals, although suggested bargain bat Yadier Molina came through by slugging a pair of homers. One of those was off Brewers starter Chase Anderson, who he’d already enjoyed success against previously. Marcell Ozuna contributed a single and two walks as well, but third suggestion Tommy Pham struck out in all four of his at-bats.

Finally, in Cleveland, Rajai Davis couldn’t repeat his past success against Tigers starter Francisco Liriano, and over in Los Angeles, Andrelton Simmons mustered just a single in what had seemed like a favorable matchup against the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Franco, Molina explode– Franco was the engine that drove the Phillies offense with his four hits, RBI and two runs, while Molina’s pair of round trippers accounted for all three of the Cardinals’ runs in their victory.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Pham has nightmarish afternoon– The mercurial outfielder followed up his early hook Friday for arguing a call by whiffing in all four at-bats Saturday.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 24th All Slates

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
• Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Sunday!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 24th All Slates

Pitcher

Rich Hill, LAD at NYM- Yahoo ($35)/FanDuel ($7,600)/DraftKings ($8,600)/FantasyDraft ($16,900)

The Mets own a .163 average, an MLB-low .221 wOBA and 0.74 ISO, and a 23.5 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at Citi Field over the last month of play. They’ve made hard contact at home a paltry 28.6 percent of the time against lefties during that stretch as well, while Hill comes off an impressive quality start against the Cubs his last time out, which marked his return from the disabled list. For what it’s worth, he’s also been a more effective pitcher way from Dodger Stadium over a small sample, and the Mets projected starting lineup Sunday has a 22.4 percent strikeout rate versus southpaws.

Yahoo-FanDuel special:

Dereck Rodriguez, SF vs. SDP- Yahoo ($28)/FanDuel ($8,000)

Rodriguez’s game isn’t available on FantasyDraft, and only on the two-game afternoon slate on DraftKings, where Rodriguez is actually the highest priced pitcher at $8,700. However, he makes for a very affordable play on Yahoo and FanDuel, and he’ll draw a good matchup against a Padres squad that’s struck out at a 27.2 percent clip and sports a .278 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month of play. The projected Padres lineup also has a collective .125 ISO against righties overall, while Rodriguez already has a pair of quality starts on his brief resume, and has given up three earned runs or less in four of five starts. Moreover, he’s sporting a solid 3.27 ERA over 11 home innings, certainly an improvement over the 5.68 figure he’s generated over his 12.2 road frames.

Catcher

Tucker Barnhart, CIN vs. CHC- Yahoo ($13)/FanDuel ($2,700)/DraftKings ($3,300)/FantasyDraft ($6,800)

The switch-hitting Barnhart offers means of cheap left-handed exposure to Cubs starter Tyler Chatwood, who’s allowed a .380 wOBA, 2.01 WHIP and 5.89 xFIP to left-handed hitters, along with a 42.1 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats on the road. Barnhart has been making hard contact at a season-high 44.7 percent rate in June, and he boasts a 33.3 percent line drive rate versus right-handed pitching at home, along with a 36.6 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness overall. Chatwood also sports a jaw-dropping 8.66 BB/9 against left-handed hitters, a number that spells trouble when considering Barnhart’s elevated 12.6 percent walk rate against righties in his home park. It’s also worth noting that Barnhart has proven to be an excellent four-seam fastball hitter (.408 wOBA), the pitch that Chatwood throws most often and is allowing a .431 wOBA and 9.7 wRAA on.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 24th All Slates

First Base

Yuli Gurriel, HOU vs. KC- Yahoo ($14)/FanDuel ($2,900)/DraftKings ($4,100)/FantasyDraft ($8,400)

Gurriel is slashing .333/.368/.444 in June while making hard contact at a season-high 35.8 percent clip. Royals starter Jason Hammel is allowing a mammoth .341 average and .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, along with a 45.6 percent hard contact rate to that handedness overall. The Royals bullpen has also allowed a robust 38.8 percent hard contact rate to righty bats on the road in the last month, along with four home runs.

Second Base

Ben Zobrist– CHC at CIN- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,800) *listed as OF*/DraftKings ($4,000)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Zobrist already enjoys a .600 average over seven career plate appearances against Reds starter Sal Romano, along with a .300 average and .374 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. The second figure rises to .442 when facing that handedness on the road, and he makes hard contact at a robust 40.9 percent versus righties away from Wrigley as well. Those numbers dovetail perfectly with Romano’s considerable struggles against lefty bats, which include a .371 wOBA (.380 at home), 5.25 xFIP, 26.8 percent line drive rate and 38.6 percent hard contact rate allowed. The Reds bullpen could also facilitate solid fantasy production for Zobrist, considering they’ve yielded a .362 wOBA and generated a 5.73 ERA against the 100 left-handed hitters they’ve faced at home in the last month.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 24th All Slates

Third Base

Jake Lamb, ARI at PIT- Yahoo ($14)/FanDuel ($3,200)/DraftKings ($4,200)/FantasyDraft ($8,000)

Lamb has four of his five homers on the season in June, and he’s making hard contact against right-handed hitters on the road at an elite 50.0 percent rate. Pirates starter Trevor Williams has seen lefty bats tag him for a .326 wOBA and 5.60 xFIP, along with an elevated 24.6 percent line drive rate. Additionally, Lamb will be in an even better spot whenever Williams exits, as the Pirates bullpen has allowed a .392 wOBA (including six homers) and 6.66 ERA to 120 lefty bats they’ve faced at home in the last month.

Shortstop

Yairo Munoz– STL at MIL- Yahoo ($9)/FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,100)/FantasyDraft ($6,000)

Munoz is priced extremely reasonably across all four sites, putting him in play against right-hander Jhoulys Chacin of the Brewers. Munoz has thrived against righties throughout his rookie campaign thus far, posting a .306 average and 36.9 percent hard contact rate, along with an impressive 37.9 percent line drive rate versus that handedness on the road. Chacin has several impressive metrics versus right-handed hitters, but it’s worth noting that his 26.2 percent line drive rate and 38.1 percent hard contact rate allowed to that handedness at home could eventually lead to trouble. Brewers relievers are targets as well, considering they’ve yielded six doubles, five homers, a 25.0 percent line drive rate and a 47.8 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at Miler Park during the last month.

Yahoo-only special:

Manny Machado, BAL at ATL- ($13)

Outfield

Yahoo/FanDuel/DraftKings special:

Leonys Martin– DET at CLE- Yahoo ($17)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($4,700)

Martin offers some reasonably priced left-handed exposure to Indians starter Adam Plutko, who’s allowed a .483 wOBA (including .503 at home) and 6.79 xFIP to left-handed hitters, along with a 58.3 percent hard contact rate at home. Martin counters with a .362 wOBA (including seven of his nine homers) and a 42.7 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. He’s also making hard contact at a season-high 46.0 percent during June, a month during which he’s also sporting a season-best .357 wOBA. Indians relievers have had their share of troubles against lefty bats at home in the last month (.357 wOBA, including four homers, and 5.32 ERA), and Martin also owns a .357 wOBA against the four-seam fastball that Plutko allows a .383 wOBA, .365 ISO and 26.1 percent HR/FB rate on.

FanDuel/DraftKings/FantasyDraft special:

Marcell Ozuna, STL at MIL- FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($4,000)/FantasyDraft ($7,400)

.571 career average against Chacin, .415 wOBA and .299 ISO in June.

Also consider:

Ian Happ, CHC at CIN- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,400)/DraftKings ($3,600)/FantasyDraft ($7,500)

.387 wOBA, 24.4 percent line drive rate, 46.9 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching on the road.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

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