DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, June 25

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown article! We have a nice 10 game slate on hand for tonight so let’s get to work.

If I don’t play any Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins for awhile, you guys might know why. They couldn’t get the best of  Adam Plutko or Bartolo Colon. While I would make the same plays again based off statistics, this is why baseball can be frustrating on some days. Even with the offense doing very little outside Yoan Moncada, we finished under 10 points back of the cash line. Hopefully today we can get that big home run that pushes us into the money.

DFS MLB – Yankees at Phillies

Yankees Probable Starter – Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP

3.12 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 26.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .338 wOBA, 0.0 fly ball rate and 16.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .319 wOBA, 18.8 fly ball rate and 56.3 hard hit rate
It’s likely not the best route to go today but Loaisiga does have some upside. The strikeout rate could be usable especially against the Phillies, who strikeout the most in baseball against righty pitching. The issue is everything is going to have to go right to see a decent game fantasy wise. He probably won’t go past five innings, although the Yankee bullpen did pitch a lot of innings yesterday. Carlos Santana might be my favorite target of the Phillies with his on-base skills. Cesar Hernandez feels a little expensive and you know what you’re getting into with Odubel Herrera and Rhys Hoskins. We’ll see how they fit within the slate as we move along.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez

Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 28.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .363 wOBA, 45.4 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .275 wOBA, 38.8 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

I would usually have some interest in Velasquez due to his high strikeout ceiling but I’m certainly not using him in cash games against this powerful lineup. He still has some GPP appeal because the Yankees strikeout at the 12th highest rate in baseball against righties. However, they are also tied for first with Boston in ISO, so they live up to their nickname of the Bronx Bombers. Lefty hitters are the most attractive here because that’s definitely the worse side of the splits for Velasquez. Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius and Greg Bird would be my first choices. Greg Bird will be brought up and he’s a fine salary saving option but it’s hard to ignore how bad he’s hitting this year. The chalk here might be Austin Romine. Gary Sanchez will likely head to the DL and Romine hits lefty, has a wOBA of .390 against righties and is just $2,500 on FanDuel. You can really never go wrong with Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Austin Romine

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge

Home Run Pick – Aaron Hicks

DFS MLB – Mariners at Orioles

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .338 wOBA, 39.3 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .276 average, .335 wOBA, 27.8 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

I really don’t know what to do with Hernandez anymore. He’s very clearly not the same pitcher he used to be and his fastball has dipped below 90 MPH on average. In fact, his fastball and changeup are only separated by about five MPH. I’ve been attacking Hernandez but he’s done well against the Red Sox and Yankees his last two starts. The Orioles certainly aren’t at that level offensively. I also still have some trust issues and wouldn’t be surprised if Hernandez struggles against all these righties. I’m not using Baltimore bats in cash games but a stack of Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones and possibly Manny Machado. He’s been very hit or miss lately and the trade rumors are swirling. I wonder if that and the Orioles being totally awful are having an effect.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.72 ERA, .164 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .358 wOBA, 43.6 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .331 average, .405 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Before they got destroyed by Chris Sale yesterday, the Mariners offense had been running hot and they could get right back to the high scoring ways tonight. Cashner isn’t a good pitcher and he’s displaying reverse splits which means we want some righties that can do some damage. Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger are pretty close stats-wise against righty pitching and Haniger comes at $600 cheaper on FanDuel. The interesting play here is Dee Gordon. Yes, he’s a lefty hitter but he’ll be hitting at the top of the lineup and can always steal a base or two. Denard Span is also very cheap if you’re headed with the stacking route.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Options – Dee Gordon, Denard Span

Home Run Pick – Mitch Haniger

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Marlins

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Shelby Miller, RHP 

*Season Debut*

Maybe they’ll be players that are going to chase Miller in his first start back from Tommy John surgery but I won’t be one of them. There’s no way to know what we’re going to get out of him but over the course of his career, he’s been worse against lefty hitters. That would put Justin Bour on the radar and he’s just $3,000 on FanDuel. Derek Dietrich could also be an option along with J.T. Realmuto. The Marlins aren’t ever a team that I get excited for, especially when we’re not sure of what kind of matchup they have and they’re at home. It’s not the best spot ever because Miller does have some potential. I can’t see using Marlins hitters unless it’s the last man in my lineup.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Secondary Options – J.T. Reamuto

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP

4.89 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .393 wOBA, 31.0 fly ball rate and 48.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .334 wOBA, 45.9 fly ball rate and 50.8 hard hit rate

Straily should probably be thankful that this game is in Miami and not Arizona. Being a fly ball pitcher is a tough business under any circumstances. Facing a Diamondbacks offense that has been hitting well lately is going to make it very difficult because one of the best hitters in baseball is a righty. Paul Goldschmidt is a great play tonight even though Straily doesn’t give up a high average. The lefties might be the way to go if the park holds the ball in play because they hit for a much higher average. David Peralta and Jon Jay top the list because Straily has struggled mightily so far this year. It’s likely that I’ll have at least one Diamondback in my lineup.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Jon Jay, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte

Home Run Pick – David Peralta

DFS MLB – Pirates at Mets

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .341 wOBA, 31.0 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .262 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

There’s a solid chance that Brandon Nimmo won’t be in the lineup for the Mets tonight as he took a pitch to hand yesterday. If he’s not active, I think Taillon could turn out to be a pretty solid play. He’s the 10th most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and that’s enough of a bargain to get my attention. The Mets aren’t a good offense to start with, regardless of the fact they beat up on Rich Hill Sunday. Taillon doesn’t really possess the same type of upside as some of the other more expensive pitchers but if you nail the hitters you pair with him, the lineup could be great. I’m not going after Mets hitters tonight. Even Michael Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera have just limited appeal.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera

Mets Probable Starter – Seth Lugo, RHP 

2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 27.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .224 wOBA, 30.6 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .296 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Lugo is almost the bare minimum for a pitcher and I might actually take a shot at him in tournaments. The box scores for his last two starts look awful but he faced the Diamondbacks in Arizona and the Rockies in Colorado. Of course pitchers aren’t going to survive out there but now he gets to come back home to face a mediocre Pirates offense. They’ve been striking out at a little higher rate the past two weeks and are in the bottom 10 in many offensive categories in the same time span. The Pirates are cheap all the way across the board but my interest is going to be fairly limited. The metrics look good for Lugo and he’s capable of delivering a big fantasy performance. He shut down the Yankees in the start before Arizona and Colorado to the tune of six innings, zero runs, two hits and a quality start and win bonus. Starling Marte, Austin Meadows and Josh Harrison are all cheap and could be options. I think the pitching is going to have a good night in this game.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Austin Meadows

Home Run Pick – Starling Marte

DFS MLB – Nationals at Rays

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .188 average, .210 wOBA, 34.9 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .329 wOBA, 29.6 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

The last start doesn’t look too solid for Gonzalez but it might have been better had it not been for a really long rain delay. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rays. It may look like they’re a decent offense against lefties but if you filter that from the start of the month, they have fallen off the map against the handedness. They’re around bottom five in the league since that point and I wish I had more confidence in Gonzalez to pitch him. I’d be more interested on the other side of the game as far as pitching goes. Daniel Robertson stands out as a one off play with a .241 ISO against lefties and he’s just $2,300 at the shortstop position.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Daniel Robertson

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 27.3 hard hit rate

Vs LHH – .128 average, .171 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .295 wOBA, 40.2 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Blake Snell is in the midst of a breakout campaign and in a lot of seasons, he could be a dark horse fo the A.L. Cy Young. I really don’t want a lot of exposure to the Nationals in this spot. They broke out a little bit on Sunday night but Snell is the real deal. Juan Soto has been a lefty destroyer in his limited career thus far, with a wOBA over .500 against them. It’s hard to get too excited because Snell has been so dominant against lefty hitting. Anthony Rendon would be the only one-off I’d really think about here but Im not likely to have much Nationals exposure. Snell is a great GPP option tonight.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite options – Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Juan Soto

Home Run Pick – Daniel Robertson

DFS MLB – Reds at Braves

Reds Probable Starter – Tyler Mahle, RHP 

3.89 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .403 wOBA, 44.6 fly ball rate and 47.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .276 wOBA, 30/4 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Give me all the Braves lefties in this spot. At the risk of making the same mistake of yesterday by going too heavy into a good matchup, the top three lefties from Atlanta looks amazing right now. Ender Inciarte has seen his price raise dramatically and he might be the one I would leave out. Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman are in wonderful spots and Freeman is due for a home run pretty soon. Mahle has been surprisingly solid so far this season and I’m not going with a full on Atlanta stack. Johan Camargo would be a good salary saving option if you need one.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options – Johan Camarago, Ender Inciarte

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP 

2.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 28.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .290 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .244 wOBA, 33.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

I’ll be honest, I want almost nothing to do with this side of the game. Foltynewicz is coming back from the DL which isn’t something we like to look at because of the inherit risk involved. It also doesn’t help that Foltynewicz was on the DL for an injury to his pitching arm. That’s not something I’m going to invest in. If he’s healthy and pitching the way he’s capable of, the Reds aren’t going to be able to do much with him. Foltynewicz has had a great season when he’s been healthy so far and he’s been able to shut down lefty hitting even more than righties. Cincinnati’s best hitters are on the left side of the plate. My only Reds exposure would come form a full stack and I’ll wait to see how Foltynewicz looks tonight before deploying him again.

Reds hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Stack them up or leave them be

Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman

DFS MLB – Padres at Rangers

Padres Probable Starter – Joey Lucchesi, LHP

3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .237 average, .264 wOBA, 7.7 fly ball rate and 23.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .350 wOBA, 41.1 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard hit rate

The last time Lucchesi pitched, he got whacked by the A’s and he’ll need to show he’s found his form before I’d want to play him. The good news for Lucchesi is the Rangers do have a fair amount of lefties in their lineup. I would lean towards playing Texas righties and that would include Jurickson Profar and Adrian Beltre. Profar has an ISO over .280 against lefties so far and even though Beltre hasn’t hit for power yet, it’s still there for the future Hall of Famer. You could mix in Delino DeShields and Robinson Chirinos if you think Lucchesi isn’t up to snuff yet but that’s not the rate I’m heading. The best two targets are Profar and Beltre for sure.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Options – Delino DeShields, Robinson Chirinos

Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .353 wOBA, 27.3 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .319 wOBA, 37.8 fly ball rate and 47.6 hard hit rate

So far in 2018, Hamels has given up 17 HR to righties sand that puts some players squarely on the map for us tonight. They might be best served as GPP options instead of cash because Hamels does have significant strikeout upside. The top two hitters are without a doubt Christian Villanueva and Hunter Renfroe. Villanueva has an ISO of .515 against lefties and Renfroe is approaching .300. They could hit two or three home runs combined or they could go 0-8 with six strikeouts. Hamels himself is actually a reasonable option here as well. The Padres have the fifth highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties so this game could go a lot of different ways. The variables are just too varied to say with certainty what should happen. It’s a solid game to attack if you’re making multiple rosters.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Chrsitian Villanueva, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Options – Jose Pirela, Wil Myers

Home Run Pick – Jurickson Profar

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Astros

Blue Jays Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP 

3.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 27.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .162 average, .185 wOBA, 22.0 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .293 wOBA, 42.9 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

This is not the time I want to pitch J.A. Happ. He’s a solid pitcher in real life and in fantasy but the Astros could ruin him tonight. There’s a narrative that Happ knows that he could be traded so he pitches lights out. Shutting down the Astros offense would certainly raise his value but I wouldn’t bank on that scenario. Five Astros hitters have an ISO of .200 or better and the list might not read how you’d expect. It’s George Springer first followed by Evan Gattis, Max Stassi, Alex Bregman and Josh Reddick. Once you add in hitters like Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa to that mix, you can see why the hitters are such a bad matchup for Happ. Even Yuli Gurriel is in play tonight, fresh off a grand slam yesterday.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – The big four(Altuve is the most expensive, Correa is cheapest)

Secondary Options – Evan Gattis, Max Stassi, Yuli Gurriel

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP

1.60 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 32.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .136 average, .207 wOBA, 56.4 fly ball rate and 23.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .185 average, .236 wOBA, 56.6 fly ball rate and 27.6 hard hit rate

There’s other intriguing pitching options but Verlander is almost surely going to be chalky tonight. If you play cash games, he’s going to be a borderline necessity. I will never play hitters against Verlander unless it’s a tournament setting. Even then it seems like a wast of money. You could take Teoscar Hernandez and hope he runs into one but it’s Verlander or bust for me.

Blue Jays Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Carlos Correa

DFS MLB – Indians at Cardinals

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .283 wOBA, 34.9 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .285 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

I don’t think that the Cardinals offense is the best one around but I definitely feel like Clevinger is a trap play. His price is really inflated coming off back to back 60 point performances against the White Sox. There’s not many metrics that we want to attack here against Clevinger and I would stick with Matt Carpenter or maybe Tommy Pham. There’s just better spots to attack. There’s downside for Clevinger today and this side of the game is likely going to be a pass from me.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter

Cardinals Probable Pitcher – John Gant, RHP 

4.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 23.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .287 wOBA, 34.1 fly ball rate and 64.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .239 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard hit rate

If I have room comfortably within my offense tonight Jose Ramirez is likely one of the best expensive bats on the whole slate. Gant is a very mediocre pitcher and is worse against lefties which means the top of the Cleveland order could blow up yet again after a double-digit effort yesterday. Michael Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion are both under $4,000 and that’s a lot easier to fit into a cash style lineup. E5 had himself a day yesterday including a grand slam and he can be a little streaky. It could be worth the price of admission to find out. Gant is the same price as Lugo and that’s an easy call every single time to side with Lugo if you’re loading up on bats.

Indians Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Lonnie Chisenhall

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Cubs at Dodgers

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

2.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .285 wOBA, 40.7 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .279 wOBA, 38.6 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

I’m holding firm in the belief that Lester has not pitched as well as his metrics are suggesting and that he has regression coming very soon. If you’re on the team that makes that happen, you’re likely making a lot of money and tonight could be that night. The Dodgers have hitters that flat out rake against lefty pitching and that includes Matt Kemp, Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor. Their ISO’s are all over .200 and Justin Turner isn’t that far behind at .185. I think this might be the best GPP stack of the night. I’m not pitching Lester in this matchup. The Dodgers did just see him in his last start and even Lester himself admitted afterwards he didn’t pitch as well as the line looked.

UPDATE: The Cubs will start RHP Duane Underwood Jr. who will be making his major league debut.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Kike Hernadez, Max Muncy

Secondary Options – Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 26.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .357 wOBA, 34.4 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .270 wOBA, 36.0 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

I’ll pass on Maeda tonight as he got beat up a little bit the last time he pitched against the Cubs. Also, Chicago woke up a little bit yesterday in Cincinnati and Maeda has a weakness against lefties. Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber are all front and center tonight. Rizzo especially is at an awesome price point of just $3,600 tonight. The Dodgers might need to let Maeda go as long as he can go tonight because their bullpen had to cover a solid part of the game yesterday after Rich Hill got knocked around. The Cubs have been hit or miss this year but this is another good spot for them.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward

Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber

Home Run Pick – Matt Kemp

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Justin Verlander  

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C/1B – Anthony Rizzo 

2B – Dee Gordon 

3B – Johan Carmago 

SS – Daniel Robertson 

OF – Nelson Cruz, Brett Gardner, Enrique Hernandez 

Utility – Austin Romine 

If you want to pitch Verlander and afford a couple of the bigger bats on the slate, you have to make a couple sacrifices along the way. We get lucky that Gordon and Gardner are $2,900 a piece because they are usually more expensive. Carmago is a great cheaper option and Robertson and his big ISO will fit extremely nice in this lineup. Romine should be in the lineup as a regular for a little while and his price could come up quick. Velasquez has so much trouble with lefties I don’t mind doubling down on that handedness. We top it off with the leadoff man for the Diamondbacks in a good spot and we’re ready to roll.

The Core – Justin Verlander, Anthony Rizzo, Brett Gardner

Stacks to Consider – Dodger and Cubs game stack, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.