Can Marvin Bagley III be the saving grace for the Kings?

When NBA fans hear the word Sacramento, their first thoughts are likely “Kangz,” “Jason Williams,” “eccentric owner” or “should have moved to Seattle.” Only one of those are endearing and he’s been gone for quite some time now.

The Kings have struggled. Draft night is meant to invoke hope and give fans thoughts of upward movement, but the Kings have only brought on misery and despair with their recent draft history. The longest tenured player on the roster (which they drafted themselves) is Willie Cauley-Stein, and he was drafted in 2015. By comparison, the Golden State Warriors have three players on their roster drafted before that point, the oldest being Stephen Curry in 2009.

Even worse, the Kings have selected a player in the top 10 in every single draft for the last decade and only three are on their roster. Bad teams stay bad for these exact reasons.

Last Thursday the Kings’ brass settled into their green room and after much research, interviewing, video review and internal discussion decided to select Marvin Bagley III with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Bagley is coming off an All-American season with Duke where he averaged 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds as an 18-year-old freshman, and yet the Kings were still chastised for the pick.

This is the counterpoint to the reaction when the San Antonio Spurs draft anyone. Due to their history — and rightfully so — they get the benefit of the doubt and the opposite is true for the Kings.

Let’s run through the company Bagley put himself into historically during his one season in college. Let us not forget he should have been a senior in high school, but after reclassifying chose to dominate the NCAA ranks a year early. According to Sports-Reference, no freshman (starting with the 1992-93 season) has averaged at least 21.0 points and 11.0 rebounds per game on 60 percent shooting from the field. Not one, except Bagley.

Opening it up to sophomores, juniors and seniors adds a mere six players to the list. All of the players were bigs. Bagley hit 23 3-pointers which is more than the other six combined (8). His versatility on offense and his willingness to attack the glass is immediately going to translate to the next level.

One of the players on that short list was Blake Griffin. Griffin’s career averages in the NBA are 21.5 points and 9.2 rebounds while shooting nearly 51 percent from the floor. Griffin was much more explosive athletically than Bagley has shown himself to be, but Bagley — at just 19-years-old — is already far more polished offensively than Blake ever was.

One of the main knocks on Bagley coming into the NBA is his lack of impact on the defensive end, mainly in the steals and blocks areas. Griffin had the same issues, but was the consensus No. 1 overall pick. Griffin has never averaged more than one block per game in any of his eight NBA seasons, but is widely considered one of the best power forwards in the game.

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Bagley, like almost every draft pick, has shortcomings. But the draft is a crap shoot no matter where a team is selecting. Let’s call a spade a spade here. None of us have the foresight to see Deandre Ayton definitely becoming a superstar in the paint. Nobody knows with 100 percent certainty that Luka Doncic is the next Toni Kukoc. So it’s easy to pile on a franchise who has made a mockery of previous top-10 selections, but Marvin Bagley III could just as easily succeed and rise in Sacramento’s hierarchy as the one who brought redemption to a wilting regime.

It’s June and there are more issues for the Kings to hash out before rolling out their lineup in October. No matter what happens, they likely will have an 11th year of picking in the top-10 of the draft (or at least they would if they held a pick next year) as change won’t be swift. However, they believe Bagley is a foundational piece alongside Fox, and I don’t necessarily believe in them but I do believe in Bagley.

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