Is Manny Machado playing himself into a bigger contract than Bryce Harper

Could Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado actually land a bigger contract than Bryce Harper this winter?

Both were drafted out of high school in 2010. Both made their MLB debuts in 2012 at the age of 19 and helped lead their teams to immediate postseason success. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper share eight All-Star berths, an MVP, a Silver Slugger and two Gold Gloves. This winter, both 25-year-old phenoms will hit free agency for the first time with an eye on shattering the largest contract ever signed by a player as a free agent.

It had been a widely held belief that Harper would come out on top in the competition to see which player would shatter the all-time mark of $252 million signed by Alex Rodriguez with the Texas Rangers. Giancarlo Stanton’s $325-million extension with the Miami Marlins should also go down quite easily. A prolonged slump this year, however, could cast serious doubts about Harper’s earning potential, and the $400-million figure that was frequently tossed out could actually go to Machado.

For the first six years of his MLB career with the Baltimore Orioles, Machado was the good soldier and played third base while J.J. Hardy manned shortstop. His desire to play up the middle never wavered, and he has finally gotten his shot this year. An all-world defender at third base, Machado has seamlessly transitioned back to the keystone of the diamond without losing much defensive value. Though he is not in the conversation for best defender at his new position, Machado is still a high-quality defensive shortstop with premium offensive output.

While Harper has struggled at the plate this year, Machado has taken his game up a notch. He is drawing walks at a higher rate than ever, refusing to give up at-bats while pitchers avoid giving him much to hit in a weak Orioles lineup and has cut his strikeout rate down three points against his career averages. Batted ball data also points to Machado making better contact, with a significantly reduced groundball rate this year. He is also using the entire field again after becoming very pull-happy during a cold spell early last year. That Machado has left many of the immature antics that plagued the early years of his career in the past will only serve to build his value. While the Orioles flounder and trade rumors swirl, Machado has handled the situation with grace while attempting to lead a clubhouse through a difficult time.

As Machado comes into his own and matures as a hitter, Harper has been on a roller-coaster ride all season. He was virtually impossible to get out for the first two weeks of the year, hitting .315/.487/.778 with eight home runs, 17 RBI and 21 walks in his first 17 games. Since April 16, Harper has hit only .194/.316/.403 with 11 home runs and 29 RBI in 58 games. He has continued to walk at a solid clip, but has also struck out 64 times. Harper does lead the NL with 19 home runs and 57 walks, but if he isn’t homering or walking, the result has typically been an out.

This is the second time in three years that Harper has battled a mysterious slump that seemingly came out of nowhere after a hot start. After winning the NL MVP in 2015, he hit just .243/.373/.441 with 24 home runs and 86 RBI in 2016. Harper slugged only .389 over the final 111 games of that season. He did rebound last year to post numbers that would have had him in the MVP discussion were it not for a freakish knee injury suffered on a wet base. With all of the ups and downs over the past two-and-a-half years, Harper has hit .264/.383/.504 with an OPS+ of 131.

Machado had his own slump to deal with last season and is a .281/.335/.513 hitter since 2016 with 38 home runs and 103 RBI per 162 games compared to Harper’s 35 and 107. Over the course of their respective careers, Harper does enjoy a sizable advantage in OPS thanks to his higher walk rate. Machado is closing that gap this year while outhitting Harper.

Prior to the season, Harper would have been a slam-dunk choice to sign the larger contract, but his continued inconsistency puts that in doubt. His defensive value as a right fielder is limited, whereas Machado will only continue to improve at shortstop as he gets more comfortable with the return to his original position. At his best, Harper is a more dangerous offensive weapon, but his numbers over the past three seasons have averaged out much closer to a borderline All-Star, not MVP candidate.

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There can be little doubt that Machado will sign for well over $300 million this winter, and Harper may do the same. His highs have simply been too stratospheric for teams to pass up a chance to sign him despite continued questions about his ability to sustain MVP levels from one year to the next. Barring a return to form in the second half for Harper, however, Machado has to be the favorite to make a run at the mythical $400-million level. His continued growth as a hitter and status as an elite defender will push him over the top and past Harper as a free agent.

Since the inception of free agency, twin 25-year-olds with such impressive resumes have never hit the open market in the same class. Records will be broken when their deals are signed, but the new richest man in baseball — until Mike Trout gets his turn, anyway — may not be who we all thought when we began eyeing the blockbuster 2018 offseason.