The Step Back post-draft Big Board rankings

Big boards are easy ways for draft scouts and writers to convey their thoughts on a draft class. It’s a summary of the author’s philosophy as well as a way to show comparisons between similar prospects and to present a variety of thoughts on prospects in an easily digestible manner.

However, the biggest problem with a big board is that they are written without the context of the opportunities each player will get at the next level. The draft comes with an inherent range of outcomes for each player, and certain situations are more likely to get players to develop closer to their ceiling than others. Big boards can’t do that because they obviously come before the draft, and while ranking prospects in a vacuum can be useful for determining who is worth a certain draft slot, that context of how a player fits within their franchise’s roster and long-term plans, and the resources they can and will commit to them, ultimately is what determines what allows a player to succeed or fail.

For example, there may feel like there is a world of difference between Brandon Knight and Kemba Walker, picked one selection apart in the 2011 NBA Draft. But truthfully, a lot of the reasons Knight is on the edge of the league and Walker is an All-Star boils down to how the Pistons and Hornets, respectively, used their young point guards in their first few years in the league.

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Since team context drives a lot of what will end up happening to the 2018 NBA Draft class, it’s important for us to consider that as well. We released our final big board prior to the draft, but since Thursday, some of those rankings have changed as we start to consider team fit. For instance, Kevin Huerter of Maryland might look a little better than we initially thought now that he’s playing next to Trae Young on the Atlanta Hawks, and he deserves to be ranked higher than 30th in the class.

Meanwhile De’Anthony Melton of USC, who we ranked 17th, probably has a much lower likelihood of reaching that level of production now that he was picked in the mid-second round as opposed to him being drafted in the first. Even though he was picked by Houston, a good development situation for him, it’s probably unreasonable to expect that he’s going to get the same opportunities as a guy like Lonnie Walker, who we rated lower but is much more likely to get playing time with San Antonio.

With these things in mind, we’re re-releasing our big board, adapted to consider team fit in addition to a player’s talent and expected outcomes. The rankings won’t change much, but certain situations are much better than others.

Tier 1 — Star potential, high likelihood

The top of the draft board stays the same, for the most part. Part of this is because I ranked these players high because their talent should fit in many different contexts, and it’s partly because all three landed in very strong situations for them. Doncic gets to play off Dennis Smith Jr. and learn from Dirk. Jackson fits very well next to Marc Gasol. And Young gets the keys to Atlanta’s offense, assuming they let Dennis Schroder go, and is surrounded by shooters. These three should all have pretty strong starts to their careers because of that.

Tier 2 — Star potential, moderate to low likelihood

Ayton and Bagley are a step lower than my top three because they have significant barriers to reaching their ceilings, and their team fits don’t really help that. Ayton is slightly ahead because he should get more opportunities to develop and his coaching situation seems like it’ll be beneficial, but he still has defensive instinct concerns and needs significant work on his shot. Bagley is a potentially elite complimentary player with significant weaknesses that is likely to be cast as a primary option in Sacramento. That might limit his development, but he’s talented enough that I can’t drop him into the next tier.

Tier 3 — Probable starters, low likelihood of star potential

Our first major change comes here, with Miles Bridges and Michael Porter Jr. leapfrogging Mikal Bridges. I still have Bridges in this tier because I believe in his potential as a starting-level 3-and-D wing, but I debated dropping him down a tier because Phoenix doesn’t seem like a very conducive situation for him to have a high level of effectiveness early on. Despite a new coaching staff and the addition of Ayton to Devin Booker, Phoenix doesn’t figure to be competing within the next couple of years, and Bridges is probably better served in a reduced role on a competitor, such as the one he was originally drafted into by the Sixers.

Philadelphia will likely be asking Zhaire Smith to play a specific role that fits well with his talents right away, and he should be very good defending ones and playing as a pseudo-four next to Ben Simmons. He slides up a couple of spots because of this. Miles Bridges, meanwhile, might be afforded the ability to better flesh out his potential as a creator and scorer on whatever Charlotte looks like this season. Both situations fit the player a little bit better than Mikal’s.

I have no idea what to do with Porter. His situation really doesn’t matter because he might never be healthy enough to develop in it. He’s in this tier because I like what he could do on Denver’s roster, but he might end up being in the 20s, 30s, or 40s in this class when it’s all said and done because of his back.

Tier 4 — Probable rotation players

This tier is guys I expect to be in an NBA rotation at the end of their rookie contract. They are ranked in terms of likelihood of that baseline being met.

As mentioned above, I’m bullish on Huerter since the draft. He lands in a team context where his shooting is going to be more valuable next to Young, and his defensive warts likely won’t matter as much. He moves up a tier for me, as does Williams, who landed in Boston.  I am convinced that their track record of turning guys with good skill sets but questionable decision-making into rotation players will apply to Williams as well.

Jacob Evans, who I was already high on, going to the Warriors is one of the best fits in the draft.

Tier 5 — Possible rotation players

These are players who have a decent chance at being rotation players, but have flaws or situational factors that could prevent them from getting there. Some, like Musa and Okogie, are in good situations, but are limited by personal factors, like Musa’s defense and Okogie’s decision-making. Okobo and Robinson, meanwhile, are not in good landing spots for them. Okobo is unlikely to get playing time or creation possessions, even though he will be coming over right away. And the Knicks are about the worst possible culture fit for Robinson, whose issues are almost entirely due to decision-making and maturity.

Brunson is a riser here because his fit in Dallas looks good. He could be the heir apparent to J.J. Barea as the Mavericks’ pesky backup one. He fits the culture of a Rick Carlisle team and with Smith and Doncic here as well, he’s not going to get over-extended in a creation role. The chances he sticks around for awhile are high. Same for Carter, who is the single best culture fit in the entire draft.

Tier 6 — Low-probability rotation pieces

These are players who have a small hope of being in the NBA past their rookie contracts.

Just because a player is a first round pick, doesn’t mean that player is going to make it. DiVincenzo, Holiday, Robinson, and Allen will get shots because of their draft position, and their team contexts have varying levels of fits for them. In particular, I think DiVincenzo has a better shot of being good in Milwaukee than he would were he to have landed in, say, Minnesota. But I don’t trust any of them to develop into good enough pieces to stick. Allen and Robinson are here simply because they were first rounders — both were pretty bad picks, and they are the two I think are most likely to take the James Young or Kendall Marshall route quickly out of the league.

Simons just landed in a bad spot for him. I’m a believer in his talent, but with no G-League structure and two ball-dominant stars at his position, I’m not sure what the avenue is to Simons realizing that talent in Portland.

Tier 7 — Warm bodies/G-League/draft-and-stash types

This is everyone else, which is to say these are the guys I highly doubt become NBA players of consequence. Certain guys towards the top will have a better chance than others. Of note, this list only ranks the players that were actually drafted. I had nine players on my big board go unselected, and they aren’t ranked here simply because it’s very difficult to project who can make it of that group prior to training camp. Of that list, I’d expect Marcus Derrickson (Warriors), Brandon McCoy (Bucks), and Gary Clark (Rockets) to have the highest likelihood of jumping to the next tier thanks to their situations for Summer League.