DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, June 26

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game breakdown article! We have a 14 game monster slate  on hand so let’s dig in.

We squeaked by last night with a lower score of 104 but I’ll take the DFS MLB money and run. It looked like it would be a long night because there were points when my lineup was literally dead last in some 50/50’s. Fortunately, the Padres bats did just enough to get us over the hump and Justin Verlander was such chalk that his poor start didn’t matter. Let’s get into tonight’s slate before a stat correction costs us some money!

DFS MLB – Yankees at Phillies

Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP 

2.24 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 30.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .192 average, .252 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .202 average, .240 wOBA, 35.3 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

The pricing on FanDuel sure makes it appealing to play Severino tonight over the other ace that’s on the slate. The Yankee stud is $1,200 less than the top option and draws a favorable matchup by the metrics. Against righties, the Phillies rank 24th in average, 13th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 12th in wOBA and 14th in wRC+. Some of those ranks are a little higher than we would normally want, but a lot of that is negated with the Phillies having the highest strikeout rate in baseball against the handedness. There’s a chance at a ceiling game from Severino in this spot and on a huge slate, I’m not forcing any Phillies into my lineup. I would limit any exposure to Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .244 average, .296 wOBA, 29.6 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .294 wOBA, 24.8 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard hit rate

I’m having a tough time deciding which is more important – the fact Arrieta does a great job limiting hard contact or the fact that he doesn’t miss bats at all. His swinging strike rate is all the way down at 6.7 percent, and if you can’t miss Yankee bats, it could be a real short trip for Arrieta tonight. He’s not someone I have interest in when he’s got a good matchup and the Yanks are far from that. I don’t fully believe in Arrieta here, but I’m also thinking I won’t play too many Yankees either. If Arrieta can show up, that’s going to be a lot of salary down the tubes lost in his ground ball rate(55.6 percent). Much like the other side of the game, I’d stick to just the best hitters in Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options- None

Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Home Run Pick – Rhys Hoskins

DFS MLB – Mariners at Orioles

Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .352 average, .420 wOBA, 23.9 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .184 average, .249 wOBA, 45.8 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate

Paxton has given up 14 runs in his past 14.2 innings pitched, but he’s also had to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox so the results aren’t entirely unexpected. Even in the Reds Sox game when he gave up six earned, there was a very questionable scoring decision that cost him some runs. “Big Maple” as Paxton is known has been oddly reverse splits so far, but this could be the spot where he gets back on track. The Orioles have not been terribly good against lefties this year although they do have a top 10 strikeout rate. If Baltimore rolls out a lineup with seven to nine right handed hitters, Paxton is going to be front and center for a pitching option tonight. This is another spot that I don’t want hitters. We’ll find them eventually.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Manny Machado

Orioles Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP 

4.38 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .318 wOBA, 36.0 fly ball rate and 26.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .299 average, .370 wOBA, 27.4 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

If Caleb Joseph is catching today, Guasman could be worth a stab in bigger tournaments. That seems to be one of the keys to catching Gausman on a good night. He should carry very little ownership and pops up randomly with great games. The risk here is he struggles more with righties and Seattle has Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura at the top of the order. In addition, the Mariners aren’t an easy team to strike out. If you’re looking at who hits the splitter well from Seattle, it’s Ryon Healy and it’s not really that close. The Mariners came up pretty small last night when I played them so I fully expect them to go off tonight. This spot is one that I bookmark and then circle back depending on how things look on the rest of the slate.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ryon Healy. Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Dee Gordon

Home Run Pick – Jean Segura

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Marlins

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.64 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .339 wOBA, 22.4 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .333 wOBA, 33.6 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

Godley has been running hot lately, going three straight starts of not giving up more than two earned runs and rattling off three wins. The Marlins should be a good matchup given the metrics, including 23.7 strikeout rate. They’re in the bottom 10 of all the major categories that we look at and my only feelings of reservations are I can’t get pitchers right against Miami. Anytime I’ve played a pitcher against them this year, he hasn’t worked out. One other knock against Godley is he throws his curveball at one of the higher rates we see. The two best hitters against the pitch are J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour, who happen to have the power to take Godley out of the yard. Those guys could be solid one-offs and I would side J.T. Realmuto due to the higher fly ball rate and hard hit rate given up to righties.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Justin Bour

Marlins Probable Starter – Elieser Hernandez, RHP 

5.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 10.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .324 average, .428 wOBA, 47.5 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.263 average, .290 wOBA, 52.2 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

I was excited about another game just laying out the stats for the starting pitcher, but this spot is right about the same. Hernandez is getting blasted by lefties and that could mean huge issues for him tonight. The Diamondbacks are lefty heavy at the top of the lineup and their offense is really clicking right now. The only bad thing about this side of the game is the ballpark, but we may not want to overthink this one. I still don’t think the park can hold the Arizona offense, and Jake Lamb is looking mighty attractive at his price point on FanDuel. Jon Jay plays an easier to fill position, but he also is very reasonable at just $3,200. It makes a lot of sense to run an Arizona stack topped off by Paul Goldschmidt if you want. Just know that he is on the worse side of the splits.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jon Jay, Jake Lamb, David Peralta

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte

Home Run Pick – Jake Lamb goes back to back days

DFS MLB – Angels at Red Sox

Angels Probable Starter – John Lamb, LHP

5.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .000 average, .000 wOBA(2 batters faced)

Vs RHH – .281 average, .408 wOBA, 41.7 fly ball rate and 45.8 hard hit rate

If the Red Sox righties can’t get it done in this spot, they may just need to pack it in for the next few days. They have to be licking their chops at this matchup as Lamb probably shouldn’t be in the majors at this point. Boston is far better at home against lefties than on the road and some of the best big spends on the slate have to be Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. The latter has been smashing lately, while Betts has been a little cold. Martinez hasn’t hit lefties like he usually does, but the track record is too good to put a ton of weight into this year. As expensive as they are, I really want to make the effort to have on of these two big bats from Boston in my lineup tonight. I don’t mind a good lefty either as most people shy away from that and a player like Mitch Moreland and his .208 ISO could be a great GPP play.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt

Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP 

3.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .212 average, .298 wOBA, 35.9 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .301 wOBA, 42.1 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

Around the start of May, Price got blasted by the Rangers and I’ll be honest – I thought that signaled the beginning of the end for the veteran lefty. Since then, he’s started eight games and has not given up more than three earned in any of them. The strikeouts aren’t always there anymore, and he’s not as good as he used to be, but he’s still a serviceable pitcher. His price is fair, but I think I’m passing on him tonight. He’s been slightly worse at home, but what has me concerned is the Angels have a few good righties that could hurt him. Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons and Ian Kinsler could all do some damage tonight. This is one of the games you take a stand on. Mike Trout is always a viable one off, but you should either stack them, pitch Price, or walk away from this one.

Angels Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Stack them or leave them

Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both get one tonight

DFS MLB – A’s at Tigers

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP 

2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 15.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .300 wOBA, 36.5 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .300 wOBA, 18.9 fly ball rate and 50.9 hard hit rate

I was all excited to maybe play Montas at a super cheap price because the Tigers lineup is worse against righties, but then I look at pricing and cooled off on Montas in a hurry. He’s $8,600 and the seventh most expensive option on the board, which means I really don’t have much interest. He still does draw a solid matchup as the Tigers are bottom 10 across the board in offense and right about mid-pack in strikeouts. Therein lies the rub because I can’t get on board paying so much for a pitcher with such a limited strikeout rate. Just because I won’t be playing Tigers hitters almost at all doesn’t mean I’ll play Montas at his price point. Leonys Martin and Nicholas Castallenos are the only hitters I’d be mildly interested in as a lineup filler.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Leonys Martin, Nicholas Castellanos

Tigers Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP 

3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .192 average, .270 wOBA, 42.5 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .274 average, .311 wOBA, 40.7 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

The A’s are such a weird team against lefty pitching. The initial impulse is run towards Khris Davis being a righty power hitter, but his wOBA against lefties sits at .294 with a 32.5 strikeout rate this season. He can get ahold of any given pitch, but the risk is far higher than most would think. The highest wOBA among regulars comes from lefty batter Matt Olson. He’s just a mediocre option tonight and we may just turn our attention to lefty specialists Chad Pinder and Mark Canha. The latter is more expensive, but is also the better play all around. He has a lower strikeout rate, higher ISO, and a higher wOBA. It’s likely worth the extra $800 to play him instead of Pinder. Given the size of the slate, I’m not too worried about chalk for hitters, but I’m worried already Krush is going to double dong since I pointed out his struggles against lefty pitching.

A’s Hitter to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Canha

Secondary Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Marcus Semien

Home Run Pick – Mark Canha

DFS MLB – Pirates at Mets

Pirates Probable Starter – Chad Kuhl, RHP 

4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .369 wOBA, 44.0 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .331 wOBA, 31.9 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Kuhl finally got a visit from the regression monster in his last start, getting absolutely pummeled by the Diamondbacks for eight runs in two innings of work. The Mets don’t present quite the same challenge as Arizona, and much like yesterday, the availability of Brandon Nimmo will have a lot to do with if I want to pitch Kuhl. If Nimmo is in, I’m hands off because he’s been a one man wrecking crew and he’s a lefty. If not, you can make the case for Kuhl, but it’s not a route for me to take. Hitters like Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, and even Wilmer Flores could still hurt him. I’m a life long Pirates fan and I try not to let that color my analysis, but Kuhl is flat out not that good. The slate is too big to watch a lineup crash and burn with him in it.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo(if active), Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista, Wilmer Flores

Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .190 average, .266 wOBA, 13.3 fly ball rate and 8.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .344 wOBA, 40.7 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

The Buccos are low-key very good against lefty pitching, and there’s likely a value play here worth chasing to make some of the more preferred plays work out. Elias Diaz is THE salary saver tonight.  Matz has been good so far, but Diaz has a .473 wOBA, 1.102 OPS, .200 ISO and a minuscule 6.3 strikeout rate against lefties, and he’s only $2,100 on FanDuel. He’s a lock into my lineups right this second. Even if he gives you a goose egg, you spent nothing for him. Starling Marte is just fine and you’re probably hoping more for a stolen base if you play him. Austin Meadows has been fantastic against lefties so far this season, but Matz has been too good for me to chase that other than a deep GPP play.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz

Secondary Options – Austin Meadows(GPP), Starling Marte, Josh Harrison

Home Run Pick – Elias Diaz

DFS MLB – Reds at Braves

Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP 

5.66 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .386 wOBA, 42.3 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .307 wOBA, 30.9 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

It’s a hard choice between who’s in a better spot tonight, Boston or Atlanta. Lefty hitting has been destroying Harvey all season long, and now he gets a bunch of them at the top of the Braves order.  FanDuel isn’t messing around with their pricing as the cheapest of the core four is Ender Inciarte at $3,600. Both Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies are well above $4,000, but it’s hard to argue they’re not two of the top plays on the entire slate regardless of price. Nick Markakis is in the mix as well, and it’s just a matter of how we can fit some of these guys in. The cheapest way to get a lefty bat is to play Johan Camargo at $2,800. He has a .361 wOBA and a respectable .179 ISO against righty pitching.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, Johan Camargo

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

2.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .197 average, .322 wOBA, 35.0 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .196 average, .250 wOBA, .417 fly ball rate and 20.3 hard hit rate

There’s just no way that Sanchez is this good of a pitcher in 2018. I refuse to accept it and will continue to try and attack him when it makes sense. Considering he’s a little worse against lefties, that could be a problem against the Reds. Joey Votto is really heating up, and even though the power is low, the on base skills are insanely high. Freeman stands to be popular and Votto could be a great pivot in the same game. Scooter Gennett is a great play here as well and I’d play Jesse Winker over Scott Schebler since he’s almost $1,000 cheaper. Maybe it’s not a full on stack for the Reds tonight, but there are certainly players to use in a game that could be very high scoring.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker

Secondary Options – Scott Schebler, Eugenio Suarez

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – Padres at Rangers

Padres Probable Starter – Tyson Ross, RHP 

3.34 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .354 wOBA, 24.4 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .150 average, .219 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

Maybe Ross proves me wrong, but this profiles as a really bad time to play him. First off, he’s in a hitters park that hurts his cause before the first pitch is even thrown. Secondary, he struggles with lefty hitters and the Rangers lineup could have at least five of them tonight. Since Ross is basically a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and a slider, Nomar Mazara might be the best play of the bunch here. He’s below average against the fastball, but he’s great against sliders. FanGraphs has him ranked 16th in baseball against the pitch this season. The cheapest way to get a lefty is Rougned Odor, but that’s a GPP play more than cash. Shin-Soo Choo is a touch expensive, but he destroys fastballs, so he’s in play. If you believe in Ross, he should certainly come in very low-owned tonight.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, Shin-soo Choo

Secondary Options – Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor

Rangers Probable Starter – Austin Bibens-Dirkx

4.58 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 14.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .300 wOBA, 27.6 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .364 wOBA, 43.8 fly ball rate and 46.9 hard ht rate

I’m close to locking in Manuel Margot tonight with him being white-hot and facing a reverse splits pitcher. Margot went yard yesterday and could very well do it again. Wil Myers has been awfully quiet in his return from injury so far, but this could be the night he wakes up. Eric Hosmer is in play due to his super low price but my goodness has he been cold lately. Even though Bibens-Dirkx isn’t a very good pitcher, I have a hard time entrusting my fate to the Padres offense for the second straight night. Margot would be my number one play with a bullet point and I think the rest of the Padres lineup is better suited for a GPP lineup where you know the risks when you hit submit.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manuel Margot

Secondary Options – Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer

Home Run Pick – Nomar Mazara

DFS MLB – Royals at Brewers

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

4.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .318 wOBA, 49.2 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .331 wOBA, 40.1 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

You know what you don’t want when you go into Miller Park to pitch? A home run problem and that’s exactly what Junis has. His home run rate is 1.35 HR/9 to lefties and 2.28 HR/9 to righties for a grand total of 19. I’m not sure why Jesus Aguilar is so cheap relative to what he’s done this year and the matchup but I’m going to take it and run. $3,300 is a fantastic price for a player that has a .296 ISO and .392 wOBA against righty pitching and he’s in a prime spot to go deep tonight. Travis Shaw and Lorenzo Cain are good plays but they’re also banged up so it might be better to treat them as tournament options. Christian Yelich has to be the second best play from the Brewers squad as Eric Thames is a touch too expensive for me. I want nothing to do with Junis tonight.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich

Secondary Options -Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 41.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .179 average, .273 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 13.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .040 average, .118 wOBA, 53.8 fly ball rate and 46.2 hard hit rate

Tonight will mark only the fourth start for Peralta but I do have some interest in playing him in tournament settings only. It’s not the perfect matchup against Kansas City but they don’t walk all that much, which should help Peralta. The Royals also don’t strikeout a ton but neither do the Pirates and Peralta made short work of them in his last start. It helps that Kansas City will lose the designated hitter for this game. If you want to try your luck with Royals hitters, I think my favorite would be Mike Moustakas. Peralta can’t continue to give up such little hard contact and Moose is one of the best hitters on the team. I’m going to pass on this side of the game for the most part.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas

Home Run Pick – Jesus Aguilar

DFS MLB – Twins at White Sox

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.64 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .359 wOBA, 18.3 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .319 wOBA, 33.6 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

This might seem a little nuts but Lynn might not be the worst play tonight. There’s plenty of risk that a hitter like Yoan Moncada or Jose Abreu tags one of Lynn’s fastballs but Lynn has some strikeout ability. Whenever a veteran pitcher has strikeout upside, they have to be considered against Chicago. The White Sox are up to 25 percent of the time as far as strikeouts go and Lynn has seen them once already this season, going for 43 FanDuel points. That was back when he was getting blasted basically every time he took the mound. Lynn has mostly righted the ship since that start and is firmly in play tonight. Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada are very reasonably priced and the best hitter against the fastball is Yolmer Sanchez.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu, Yolmer Sanchez

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP

3.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .332 wOBA, 51.0 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .212 average, .284 wOBA, 43.4 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Lopez is too up and down for my liking and this isn’t the best spot for him with the amount of lefties Minnesota has in their lineup. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar are the high end plays while Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison are the budget friendly options. Mauer is probably the safer play for cash games while Morrison is better for GPP’s. Rosario and Escobar probably won’t find their way into my lineup just because there’s about a billion spots that I love tonight. This isn’t a bad one but I don’t think it’s the best one either.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison

Home Run Pick – Yolmer Sanchez

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Astros

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

*Major League Debut*

This was the scouting report on Borucki from April of last season via FanGraphs –

"Ryan Borucki, LHP, 0.9 KATOH+ – For a pitcher who has missed so much time with injury, Borucki is surprisingly adept at changing hitters’ eye level with a fringey fastball and potential plus changeup. Borucki had TJ late in 2012 (he signed one of several overslot, post-10th-round deals on this list) and missed all of 2013, then had shoulder and elbow problems again in 2015. He sits 87-90, throws strikes, and has an above-average changeup. His slider is fringey and the velo and braking ball limit his upside. He could be a back-end changeup/control starter, but there’s significant risk here because of the injury history."

This really doesn’t sound like the kind of pitcher that is going to be able to handle an offense as good as the Astros. The one thing Borucki does have going for him is he’s always been a ground ball hitter but I don’t think that will be enough for him tonight. All of the normal big guns from the Astros have a positive rating against the changeup but the leader on the team against the pitch is Evan Gattis. My buddy Max Stassi is second on the team against the change and smacks lefties. I think the only big name that I won’t play is Jose Altuve just because there’s cheaper options at that position that I really like as well. Alex Bregman is on fire and is “just” $4,300. Houston is one of the most expensive stacking options but the ceiling is extremely high.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Any Houston hitter in the top seven slots are viable tonight

Secondary Options –

Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP

2.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 29.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .185 average, .289 wOBA, 32.6 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .285 wOBA, 25.4 fly ball rate and 28.7 hard hit rate

While Morton is seemingly a lock for a win and probably a quality start, I’d rather find the extra $600 to pay up for Severino who is the much more talented pitcher. In a surprise to basically everyone, the Blue Jays hit Justin Verlander yesterday and they might have a bit of swagger going tonight. I’m not heading after Blue Jays in the hopes of a repeat performance, but this whole side of the game is a pretty easy fade for me.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Max Stassi

DFS MLB – Indians at Cardinals

Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP 

2.10 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 27.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .185 average, .235 wOBA, 31.3 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .201 average, .236 wOBA, 30.8 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Another quick breakdown for this side of the game because I have very little interest in anything here. Yes, Kluber is an amazing pitcher but his price is just a hair under $12,000. When there’s pitchers like Severino and Paxton and even Morton that are so much cheaper, I can’t pay up for Kluber. He just seems like a luxury, even though I fully expect a 50 point effort. I don’t ever play hitters against Kluber because he doesn’t even give out cheap walks.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -None

Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP 

3.24 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 21.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .291 wOBA, 31.8 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .334 wOBA, 27.8 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard hit rate

Everything may look great for Martinez, but he has been a total disaster since he’s come back from injury. He’s pitched 16.2 innings in four starts and given up 23 hits, 20 walks and 15 earned runs. That is unappealing for a pitcher with his talent level and I won’t go near him until he shows he’s back to form. There’s a little more risk with Cleveland hitters here because Martinez can get back to normal at any point. Still, it’s hard not to like hitters like Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion and A.L. MVP candidate Jose Ramirez. They’re a tick behind the other elite options for this evening in my book.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez

*Note – This analysis is a repeat from yesterday’s column as the Cubs pushed Lester back a day. Everything still stands from Monday.*

DFS MLB – Cubs at Dodgers

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

2.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .285 wOBA, 40.7 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .279 wOBA, 38.6 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

I’m holding firm in the belief that Lester has not pitched as well as his metrics are suggesting and that he has regression coming very soon. If you’re on the team that makes that happen, you’re likely making a lot of money and tonight could be that night. The Dodgers have hitters that flat out rake against lefty pitching and that includes Matt Kemp, Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor. Their ISO’s are all over .200 and Justin Turner isn’t that far behind at .185. I think this might be the best GPP stack of the night. I’m not pitching Lester in this matchup. The Dodgers did just see him in his last start and even Lester himself admitted afterwards he didn’t pitch as well as the line looked.

As an additional note, I want the Dodgers even more now after they let people down last night. People are not going to play them tonight and they could win a GPP.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Kike Hernadez, Max Muncy

Secondary Options – Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner

Dodgers Probable Starter – Ross Stripling, RHP 

1.99 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 29.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .278 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 20.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .254 wOBA, 37.8 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

I’ve used Ross Stripling plenty this season, but tonight won’t be one of those times. He’s too expensive and there is legitimate downside to him as seen in his last start against Chicago. He did still manage 34 FanDuel points, but that would be a disappointment at his price tag this evening. You can go after the lefties from the Cubs if you want, but it’s not something that I want to do. I prefer the late night hammer of the Dodgers and at least one player from the next game much more than Cubs hitters. Stripling has shown he’s too good of a pitcher to really target against that heavily.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Home Run Pick – Matt Kemp

DFS MLB – Rockies at Giants

Rockies Probable Starter – Chad Bettis, RHP 

5.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .316 wOBA, 27.4 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .297 average, .366 wOBA, 34.7 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

At just $6,000, you can certainly make a case to play Bettis tonight. The metrics look completely awful but Bettis has a 2.70 ERA with a .284 wOBA given up on the road. The strikeout rate doesn’t change too much, but the average and wOBA given up to righties sure does. Will Bettis get you more than about 30 points in a good scenario? Probably not, but you don’t need him to do much at that price point. Given the better performance of Bettis on the road, I think any Giants hitters are a trap and will not be playing them tonight.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey

Giants Probable Starter – Derek Holland, LHP 

4.48 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .125 average, .181 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 18.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .268 average, .361 wOBA, 43.7 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

Late night hammer, thy name is Nolan Arenado. He’s very expensive at $4,600 and almost nobody will play him in one of the most notorious pitcher’s parks in baseball. Given the fly ball rate and the hard hit rate that Holland is giving up is right in Arenado’s wheelhouse and he can smash no matter what the park. On the road this year, Arenado has a .409 average, .341 ISO, .510 wOBA and a 212 wRC+. There isn’t a park in the majors that can handle those types of numbers. He’s playable in any format tonight and should still smash in San Francisco.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Trevor Story

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Luis Severino 

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C/1B – Elias Diaz 

2B – Yoan Moncada

3B – Johan Carmago

SS – Kike Hernandez 

OF – J.D. Martinez, Wil Myers, Jesse Winker

Utility – Jesus Aguilar 

Having FanDuel move Kike Hernandez into the shortstop slot is huge for this particular lineup. At first glance, this slate isn’t my favorite. It’s difficult to get a starting pitcher that I feel very comfortable with and a lot of offensive pieces that I’m a big fan of. Diaz saves us a bunch of salary, which is great. Moncada feels like the lowest we can go at second base right now and we do get a piece of the Atlanta offense at third base. I really want Martinez or Betts in this spot and Martinez fits so he gets the call. Myers and Winker are lineup fillers but Aguilar is one of my favorites at this early stage.

The Core – Elias Diaz, Johan Carmago

Stacks to Consider – Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers

Next: MLB DFS Bargain Bin Plays for Tuesday

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.