Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Tuesday, June 26th 2018 edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.
Yesterday’s FanDuel MLB pitcher play worked well, with the right stacks. Our offensive stacks didn’t quite work as well as we hoped. We had some solid picks like Jake Lamb smashing a home run for 18.7 FanDuel MLB points, and Ozzie Albies had a huge offensive day with 37.4 points.
But, like we had on Sunday, we were attempting to develop a big offensive game, using the great value Seth Lugo provided. If you look at the Mets score last night, the runs total wasn’t the whole story.
Lugo only gave up one run in five innings, and had four strikeouts. In fact, if he lasted one more inning, he would’ve earned a quality start. Still, we had 24 FanDuel MLB points on a dirt-cheap $5,900 salary. That was the goal.
Today, the Nationals will try to recover from epic embarrassment against the Rays in Tampa last night. But the game starts around noon, and is only part of the All Day slate, so we’re fading the game. We’ll focus on the Main slate only tonight.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: Chicago and St. Louis could be the problem spots today. However, they’re mostly just shower concerns. So we could see some delays for the Indians, Cardinals, Twins and White Sox tonight. And for what seems like a daily routine now, the Braves and Reds could see some minor interruptions as showers pop up around the area.
All else said, we do not think weather will have a major impact on DFS MLB today. So, with weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate
Our FanDuel MLB lineup yesterday has some comparison to today’s pitcher. We’re going to grab a top five K-rate, top five xFIP, who’s starting on the mound for a New York team. The huge caveat, Luis Severino ($10,600) is almost double Seth Lugo‘s price from yesterday. But we can NOT avoid this match up.
He’ll be chalky, but you can play him in any format. There are a few other plays we like, which we’ll get to shortly, but first…why is Severino a slam dunk? Well, for starters, the Phillies have a 26.3% K-rate against RHP’s. Even with a decent 97 wRC+, and yes they’re in Citizen’s Bank Park, they’re an easy target with this match up.
The match up aside, Severino has almost quietly become a consistent and dominating DFS MLB optimal lineups play each week. With 16 starts under his belt, eleven of his games landed at least 40+ FanDuel MLB points.
Luis is averaging around seven innings per game, which is an easy way to build up points, but also has a fantastic 30.2% K-rate. Even better, Severino has a low 0.96 WHIP, and is only giving up 0.52 home runs per nine innings. That last stat is key. The Phillies strike out a lot, but can be dangerous hard-contact hitters. But tonight, they likely don’t get much HC from Luis.
If you want to fade the chalk, there are plenty of options for you today. Charlie Morton ($10,000) has a more difficult Blue Jays offense against RHP’s, but they’re still fanning around 24% of the time with this match up. If you need another $600 for your offense, this is an easy pivot.
James Paxton ($9,600) has been inconsistent this season, but he has a 60 to 70 FanDuel MLB point ceiling against the Orioles tonight. And Ross Stripling ($9,300) is a steady 30 to 40 point slam dunk, with a 40+ potential, even against the Cubs tonight.
If you’re digging through this article for that Seth Lugo punt-play value, we don’t have one tonight. However, if you need value, Tyson Ross ($7,400) is a good pitching facing a Rangers offense who resembles the Phillies against RHP’s this season.
In fact, their 89.9 wRC+ is worst, and they still have a 25.5% K-rate, third worst in baseball against righties. And Ross’ 23% K-rate makes him very attractive with this price tag.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
Regardless of where you’re going with pitching, two stacks we absolutely love tonight are the Brewers and Braves. Jakob Junis had a hot start to this season, but he’s since let his ERA climb to nearly 4.5. Still, Junis has a decent 1.23 WHIP. So you have to wonder why his ERA is so high, if he’s not letting many batters on base.
The answer is simple, he’s giving up 1.87 home runs per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of any consistent starting pitcher tonight. With that in mind, lefty bats like Eric Thames ($3,900) and Christian Yelich ($3,800) should be high on your offensive target lists for today. The Brewers also have plenty of value in your lineup to make more expensive pitchers affordable.
So why the Braves? Well, they’re playing the Reds, with Matt Harvey pitching, in Sun Trust Field. If you play enough DFS MLB, I could probably just say…the end, at the end. If you don’t, Sun Trust Field is a hitter friendly park. And Matt Harvey is clinging to a very thin thread keeping him in major league baseball.
Harvey’s mechanics on the mound appear to be getting slightly better. But he’s still having a terrible season, giving up 1.71 home runs per nine innings with a 1.35 WHIP and 5.66 ERA. Harvey isn’t the pitcher he used to be. That’s very clear right now. So continue to stack against him as long as he remains in the league.
If you’re going with the expensive plays from the Brewers, and I think you should, you likely have to grab the cheaper plays from the Braves lineup tonight. However, keep in mind, Tyson Ross is still an option. You could flip to Ross, and stack the big bats from both the Braves and Brewers. The only caveat, you likely miss out on a big Severino night.
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup
We like multiple pitchers tonight, but Luis Severino should be the big FanDuel MLB points earner tonight, at the SP position. If you’re looking for lower ownership, even in cash games, Morton is an easy pivot. You could also consider Paxton and Stripling, if you just need to shave off a few hundred bucks in salary, at the SP position.
But, if you’re looking for a value play at pitcher, Tyson Ross is a great option. His match up could land him in the 40 to 50 FanDuel MLB point range, and you now have plenty of cash left over to stack the expensive bats from both the Brewers and Braves. If you go with Severino, we like the Brewers top bats, with value from the Braves lineup.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Tuesday, June 26th 2018:
FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:
P Luis Severino ($10,600)
C/1B Eric Thames ($3,900)
2B Jonathan Villar ($2,600)
3B Johan Camargo ($2,800)
SS Dansby Swanson ($3,200)
OF Charlie Culberson ($2,700)
OF Christian Yelich ($3,800)
OF Ryan Braun ($2,900)
UTIL Cory Spangenberg ($2,500)
Remaining Salary: $0
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel MLB lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, PGA, and World Cup this summer!