MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 26th Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Monday, June 25th

Before we get to today’s edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, we’ll look back at how Monday’s suggestions fared in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

There were once again a few things to smile out among Monday’s results, beginning with a solid effort by the Pirates’ Jameson Taillon. The inconsistent righty exploited the Mets’ considerable struggles against right-handed pitching by generating a quality start over six innings, one that included five strikeouts.

The Marlins’ Justin Bour came through as well with a solo home run off Shelby Miller in his first at-bat of the game. I’d cited Miller’s career-long struggles versus left-handed hitters — as well as Bour’s successful track record against him — in yesterday’s Bargain Bin. Miller actually didn’t look terrible in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, but he did help Bour to a nice return on his modest price.

At second base, the Pirates’ Josh Harrison had a productive albeit modest evening with a single, an RBI from a sac fly and a run. However, Yahoo special Ozzie Albies, once again priced down to just $12, delivered yet another multi-hit effort that he capped off with a walk-off solo homer in extras.

The Rangers’ Elvis Andrus provided just one hit but two RBI. Our three underachievers among the main selection were Jorge Alfaro, Matt Kemp and Kyle Seager, who could only manage a single and a couple of walks among the three of them. Alternate outfield suggestion Nick Markakis was a bit better, lacing a pair of singles and also drawing a walk.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Taillon, Bour, Albies pay dividends– The Pirates right-hander extended the Mets’ misery against right-handed pitching, while Bour may have only had one hit, but it was a solo homer against the lefty-vexed Shelby Miller. Meanwhile, Yahoo-only suggestion Ozzie Albies paid off his discounted price handsomely for a second straight day, capping off his three-hit night with a walk-off homer.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Alfaro, Seager quiet– No zeros from our main suggestions, but Alfaro and Seager only put a hit and a walk on the board, respectively.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 26th Evening Slates

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
• Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Tuesday!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 26th Evening Slates

Pitcher

Frankie Montas, OAK at DET- Yahoo ($35)/FanDuel ($8,600)/DraftKings ($7,600)/FantasyDraft ($14,700)

The Tigers sport a .215 average, .268 wOBA, 64 wRC+, -13 wRAA and 25.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at Comerica Park during June. Meanwhile, Montas has been a revelation for the Athletics, and he’s been at his best on the road thus far this season. The hard-throwing righty has generated a minuscule 0.61 ERA and allowed a .271 wOBA in a pair of road starts (14.2 innings), and he’s gone at least six innings in four of his five trips to the mound overall. He could be in line for some run support Tuesday as well, as the Athletics boast a .351 wOBA, .205 ISO and MLB-high eight homers over 163 plate appearances against southpaws on the road in June, and they’ll draw a matchup versus Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy.

Catcher

Nick Hundley, SF vs. COL- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,600)/DraftKings ($3,500)/FantasyDraft ($6,300)

Although Rockies starter Chad Bettis has been much worse in the thin air of his home park, never underestimate the value of rostering a former battery mate against a pitcher, especially a good hitter that comes as cheap as Hundley does Tuesday. Bettis has allowed a .366 wOBA overall to right-handed hitters (although again, a lot of that damage has come at Coors), and he’s generated a 10.35 ERA and allowed a .321 average and .447 wOBA over 20 June innings. He’s also been a bit fortunate against righties on the road, as the 5.04 xFIP and 36.7 percent hard contact rate he’s allowed that handedness away from home has been mitigated somewhat by a .230 BABIP. Meanwhile, Hundley is hitting .297 and owns a .410 wOBA over 39 June plate appearances, and he boasts a .351 wOBA, .233 ISO, 25.0 percent line drive rate and 33.3 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching at home.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 26th Evening Slates

First Base

FanDuel/DraftKings/FantasyDraft special:

Ian Desmond, COL at SF- FanDuel ($3,400)/DraftKings ($3,900)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Desmond is priced right for a matchup versus Giants lefty Derek Holland, who he owns a .600 average with a homer and four RBI against in five career encounters. Desmond also boasts a .313 average, eight homers and a .428 wOBA versus left-handed pitching. Those aren’t just Coors-generated numbers either, as his road average (.300) and wOBA (.417) against lefties will attest. Desmond’s hard contact rate against lefties is actually slightly higher on the road as well (43.6 percent, as compared to 42.4 percent at home), while Holland comes into Tuesday allowing a .361 wOBA (including 11 homers) to right-handed hitters, along with a 24.2 percent line drive rate and 46.0 percent hard contact rate to them in his home park.

Yahoo/FanDuel special:

Mitch Moreland, BOS vs. LAA- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,600)

Moreland– .375 average, .482 wOBA, .333 ISO and 40.7 percent hard contact rate against righties at Fenway/ Angels SP John Lamb– .382 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters in career/ Angels relievers– .368 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters on road over last month of play.

Second Base

Yoan Moncada, CWS vs. MIN- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($3,300)/DraftKings ($3,900)/FantasyDraft ($7,800)

Moncada flashed his upside with a six-RBI explosion against the Athletics on Sunday, and he’ll draw a matchup ripe for more production Tuesday. The Twins’ Lance Lynn checks in allowing a .328 average, .394 wOBA and 25.0 percent line drive rate to left-handed hitters on the road, along with a 40.9 percent hard contact rate to them overall. The switch-hitting Moncada counters with a .342 wOBA and .228 ISO against right-handed pitching at home, along with a 24.6 percent line drive rate and 42.6 percent hard contact rate. Lynn’s extreme vulnerability when throwing his four-seam fastball this season (.418 wOBA, 11.1 wRAA) could also haunt him against Moncada, who’s hit five of his 10 homers and boasts 13 extra-base hits overall against the pitch this season.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 26th Evening Slates

Third Base

Christian Villanueva, SDP at TEX- Yahoo ($7)/FanDuel ($2,800)/DraftKings ($3,800)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Villanueva is actually minimum price on Yahoo and reasonable elsewhere, and he draws an appealing matchup in the fertile hitting conditions of Globe Life Park against Rangers right-hander Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who’s allowed a .308 average, .364 wOBA, 25.0 percent line drive rate and 46.9 percent hard contact rate to a modest sample of 43 right-handed hitters this season. The troubles against righty bats stem back further, however, as Bibens-Dirkx has yielded a .349 wOBA overall to that handedness over his career. Villanueva has been much more of a lefty masher thus far, but he’s got the type of prodigious power to leave the yard anywhere, especially in the favorable environment he’ll find himself in. Villanueva also enjoys excellent success against Bibens-Dirkx’s trademark sinker, a pitch that he owns a .410 average, .514 wOBA, .359 ISO and 50.0 percent HR/FB rate on, and that Bibens-Dirkx is allowing a .313 average, .356 wOBA and mammoth 59.3 percent line drive rate on when throwing so far this season.

Also consider:

Yolmer Sanchez, CWS vs. MIN- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,700)/DraftKings ($3,400)/FantasyDraft ($6,300)

.361 wOBA, .215 ISO against right-handed pitching at home/Lynn’s issues against left-handed hitters detailed in Moncada’s entry.

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Shortstop

Jurickson Profar, TEX vs. SDP- Yahoo ($15)/FanDuel ($3,400)*listed as 2B*/DraftKings ($4,200)/FantasyDraft ($8,400)

Profar provides some left-handed exposure to Padres starter Tyson Ross at an affordable price. Ross has allowed a .291 average, .354 wOBA, 29.1 percent line drive rate and 37.5 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The switch-hitting Profar has been effective versus righties at home, posting a .371 wOBA, .281 ISO and 35.1 percent hard contact rate against that handedness at Globe Life Park. He’s also making hard contact at a season-best 46.9 percent overall in June on his way to a .348 wOBA for the month. Additionally, when the game gets into the bullpen, Profar will also have the advantage of facing a relief corps that has worked 28.1 innings over the last week.

Outfield

Marwin Gonzalez, HOU vs. TOR- Yahoo ($15)/FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,400)/FantasyDraft ($6,900)

Gonzalez allows you to fit in a right-handed bat without breaking the bank against Blue Jays rookie starter Ryan Borucki, who’ll be making his first big-league appearance in a baptism by fire at Minute Maid Park. Borucki is a southpaw who’s allowed all six homers he’s given up this year at Triple-A Buffalo to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, the switch-hitting Gonzalez owns a 23.7 percent line drive rate and 42.4 percent hard contact rate versus southpaws, and he boasts a .435 wOBA while making hard contact at a season-high 52.3 percent clip overall in June.

Also consider:

Denard Span, SEA at BAL- Yahoo ($15)/FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,800)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Span-.462 average over 13 career encounters against Orioles SP Kevin Gausman; 330 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and .352 wOBA overall in June/ Gausman-.342 wOBA allowed to lefty batters at home.

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