Nylon Calculus: How much do the Heat need Wayne Ellington to stay?

After a 44-38 regular season, the Miami Heat ended 2017-18 with a first-round defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers. The season was an improvement on the previous — in which they finished 41-41 and missed the playoffs — but did not live up to the exciting second half of 2016-17 when they finished 30-11. And due to cap space, the Heat’s future is uncertain.

The Heat’s highest paid player for the 2018-19 season, Chris Bosh, has not played since 2016. Hassan Whiteside, making $25 million next season, could not stay on the court for crunch time in either the regular season or the playoffs. Tyler Johnson, a beneficiary of the 2016 cap-spike, will make $19 million next season.

With that amount of money on the books, the Heat are not likely to re-sign sharpshooter Wayne Ellington. On a team starved for offense — scoring 106.8 points per 100 possessions, 22nd in the NBA and the worst mark among all playoff teams — Ellington was a bright spot. He finished tied for sixth in 3-point field goals made last season, shooting just under 40.0 percent from behind the arc. Ellington was third on the team in terms of true shooting percentage (.588) and second when removing Rodney McGruder who played in only 18 games.

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This past season, Ellington was a focal-point of the offense, particularly in crunch time. He led the team in fourth quarter scoring with 286 total points, per-pbpstats. He was also second in possessions played in the fourth quarter (1,234), behind only Josh Richardson (1,334).

Coach Erik Spoelstra often looked to get Ellington open with variations of the Horns set in those situations, with Ellington setting a back-screen for a player at the elbow before running out to receive a hand-off, and an open 3-pointer.

Or with Ellington starting in the corner, and receiving a screen prior to running out and receiving the hand-off.

The Heat frequently turned to this play when in need of a bucket late in-game, and, even when the play broke down, Ellington was there to hit the shot.

His high-percentage shooting from deep, coupled with a league-leading .827 3-point rate, meant that Ellington occupied an important role for the Heat. The Man With the Golden Arm stretched the floor for them, providing necessary spacing. With Ellington on the court, the Heat shot significantly more from distance, and slightly more at the rim as well.

These changes led to the Heat scoring 5.4 more points per 100 possessions with Ellington on the court than with him off. For a team that is already in the bottom-third of the league in offensive efficiency, the loss of Ellington could spell another lackluster season.

Still, the Heat’s effect on Ellington cannot be ignored. Prior to joining the Heat, Ellington never had a 3-point attempt rate above .500 percent. Shooting so few 3s led to an appropriately low true shooting percentage — the past two seasons with the Heat were his two most efficient since joining the NBA in 2009. For most of his career, Ellington had a negative Offensive Box Plus-Minus, but led the Heat this past season with a +1.8.

Spoelstra has earned a reputation as one of the best coaches in the NBA. Ellington, as well as many others, has been a beneficiary of his system. It is far from guaranteed, but, with young players on the roster, Spoelstra may be able to recreate Ellington’s production with another player.

Losing their leader in OBPM will always be a hit to a team’s offensive production. As poor as the Heat are on the offensive side, though, they are one of teams least reliant on their top offensive player. Looking at only players with a positive OBPM and at least 500 minutes played, here is how each team breaks down:

There is no doubt that Miami would prefer to be at the opposite end of this graph, and losing Ellington will not help them reach that goal. However, their success was not built on one player. Adjusting to what percentage of the OBPM rating each team’s top player accounts for helps make that more clear:

The Heat operate an egalitarian style of offense. Ball movement is emphasized in order to keep each player involved and the defense scrambling. By offensive concentration, a metric I created that is closely tied to usage percentage, Miami ranked as the ninth least concentrated offense. I introduced the metric here. For the sake of the post, all you need to know is a lower rating means an offense is not controlled by one or few players.

It should come as no surprise that simply not having a concentrated offense is not the same thing as having a good offense. For many teams — the Heat are likely one of them — it may simply suggest there is no singular talent to direct the ball to.

Despite the poor results, the Heat’s offensive system seems to accomplish its goal. The ball often finds its way to the player with either an advantageous position or the hot-hand — if you believe in that sort of thing.

Ultimately, while the Heat may be set-up in a way that should mitigate the loss, Ellington’s efficient production cannot be overstated. Over the course of the season, he shot 243 more 3-pointers than any of his teammates, while maintaining a better percentage than any other Heat player — minimum 100 attempts (no teammate above him shot more than 35 3-pointers). Splitting those attempts between Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson and Kelly Olynyk may be their best chance at replicating Ellington’s shooting since all three have shot 37.0 percent from the perimeter thus far over their careers. Justise Winslow showed promise last season in hitting 38.0 percent of his 3s, but his two previous seasons and his free throw percentage seem to indicate that mark is more likely to be an aberration than the norm.

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If Ellington does leave, the Heat may be hoping for a triumphant return from Dion Waiters, who was sidelined last season with an ankle injury, an unenviable position.