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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 27

By Juan Carlos Blanco

OAKLAND, CA - APRIL 02: Jed Lowrie #8 of the Oakland Athletics hits a two run double against the Texas Rangers during the seventh inning at the Oakland Coliseum on April 2, 2018 in Oakland, California. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Texas Rangers 3-1. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - APRIL 02: Jed Lowrie #8 of the Oakland Athletics hits a two run double against the Texas Rangers during the seventh inning at the Oakland Coliseum on April 2, 2018 in Oakland, California. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Texas Rangers 3-1. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images) /
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FanDuel MLB
FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Tuesday, June 26th

Before we get to today’s edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, we’ll look back at how Tuesday’s suggestions fared in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

  • I’m a big believer in getting the bad news out of the way first, and Tuesday, that came in the form of one Frankie Montas. The Athletics right-hander had been impressive in four of his previous five starts and especially dominant on the road, but all of that came crashing down from the first inning Tuesday. Montas got into trouble during his opening frame by allowing a pair of RBI doubles to Nick Castellanos and Niko Goodrum, as well as a run-scoring single to James McCann. Dixon Machado subsequently tagged him for a two-run triple in the third, and with 74 pitches by the end of three innings, it was a well-deserved early hook for Montas, who turned in the certified dud of the night.
  • Things did get brighter from there. Original catcher suggestion Nick Hundley was out of the lineup, but late Twitter pivot Elias Diaz came through with a double, a run and a walk at a very cheap price across the industry. One of the first base bargain suggestions, Ian Desmond, corroborated his reputation as a lefty killer with a solo homer against Derek Holland early, and he later added an RBI double for a stellar night. Mitch Moreland, a special on Yahoo and FanDuel, contributed an RBI single.
  • At second base, the ChiSox’s Yoan Moncada made his one hit count, lacing an RBI triple and also scoring once. Main third base suggestion Christian Villanueva was out of the lineup, but alternate suggestion Yolmer Sanchez parlayed a pair of singles into four RBI for a very strong night. Additionally, late Twitter suggestion Danny Valencia extended his career success against James Paxton with a solo homer and also added a single and walk. Another late Twitter pivot, David Freese, had a single and run.
  • Shortstop Jurickson Profar was quiet with only a walk, while outfield suggestions Marwin Gonzalez and Denard Span came up empty altogether.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Desmond, Sanchez deliver big RBI numbers- The two players combined for six RBI on a night where they played big roles in their teams’ offensive outputs.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s): 

Montas derails early and often, outfielders come up empty– Montas may not have a worse outing all season, while Gonzalez failed to capitalize on a matchup against a lefty making his first major-league start in Ryan Borucki. Meanwhile, Span couldn’t replicate his past success against Orioles starter Kevin Gausman.

FanDuel MLB
FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 27th Evening Slates 

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to a Wednesday “Quick Hits” edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
  • This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Wednesday’s evening slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 27th Evening Slates Quick Hits

  • On the pitching front, I present the Pirates’ Ivan Nova as one of two typically reasonably priced candidates that I like Wednesday. The Mets continue to struggle to score runs. and their .245 wOBA, 58 wRC+ and 27.4 percent strikeout rate against right-handers at home over the last month of play were all ranked dead last during that period heading into Tuesday’s action. Meanwhile, Nova has quietly put together a stellar June (2-0 record, 0.92 ERA, 19:5 K:BB over 19.2 innings across three starts).

    • His most recent start against the Red Sox notwithstanding, I also like

    Wade LeBlanc

    against the Orioles at Camden Yards. LeBlanc is likely to see at least a slight drop in ownership after giving up six earned runs on 11 hits to Boston over 4.2 innings, but consider that the Orioles sported a .282 wOBA and MLB-low .079 ISO against southpaws at home over the last month of play heading into Tuesday night’s action, when they mustered just two runs against Mariners lefty James Paxton.

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  • One of my favorite hitting spots to look for some value is at Citi Field on Wednesday, as I’m figuring on some Pirates lefty bargain bats in particular to come through against Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler and an exhausted New York bullpen that has worked the most innings (31.0) of any relief corps over the last week. Wheeler has allowed a .382 wOBA to left-handed hitters at home. Meanwhile, the Mets pen has yielded a .392 wOBA and whopping 11 homers overall during the last week, and a .411 wOBA, including six homers, to left-handed hitters at home over the last month overall. Consider the likes of Austin Meadows, Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco in particular, as well as the switch-hitting Josh Bell.
  • Over at Camden Yards, I wouldn’t shy away from targeting Orioles SP Alex Cobb despite his out-of-nowhere stellar start against the Braves last Friday. Cobb has frequently run into trouble at home, as evidenced by a .296 BAA and .376 wOBA (including five homers). He’s yielded a 36.4 percent HR/FB rate to righty bats there as well, putting value right-handed power bats like Mike Zunino (who also has a good track record against him) and Ryon Healy in play. This also a case where things line up bullpen-wise, as Orioles relievers have worked the fifth-most innings of any bullpen (28.0) in the last week while allowing a .322 average and .385 wOBA. Moreover, they’ve allowed a .374 wOBA and 34.7 percent hard contact rate to righty bats at home in the last month.

    • MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, June 27th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

    • His ugly 2-9 record doesn’t reflect it, but White Sox starter James Shields has actually been solid for multiple starts this season, and has been the victim of some tough-luck losses. However, he still gives up his share of homers, and right-handed hitters have tagged him at home for a .353 wOBA and 35.3 percent hard contact rate. White Sox relievers have been especially bad over the last week, allowing an 8.15 ERA, .329 average and .402 wOBA. Therefore give the likes of Brian Dozier, Ryan LaMarre and Mitch Garver some consideration as larger-field tournament plays.
    • The Red Sox’s Rick Porcello has been surprisingly vulnerable to lefty hitters at Fenway, the only split where he shows any real weakness. Left-handed bats have tagged him at home for a .356 wOBA, and they’ve made hard contact against him at a 38.5 percent clip overall. As bad as his season has been, give Kole Calhoun (.318 average against him over 23 plate appearances) some consideration, as well as Luis Valbuena. One exception I’ll make to the handedness rule here is the right-handed Ian Kinsler, who owns a .500 average and seven RBI versus Porcello over 22 at-bats.
    • For a late-night hammer, consider the rather unlikely San Francisco Giants. Not only does Kyle Freeland have a terrible track record against several Giants hitters, but he’s allowing a .331 wOBA and season-high 38.7 percent hard contact rate over 25.2 June frames. As a southpaw, Freeland is more vulnerable to righties, but Joe Panik does have an enticing .583 average against him over 12 at-bats. Meanwhile, righty bargain bats Hunter Pence (.571 average against), Gorkys Hernandez (.400 average against) and Nick Hundley (.357 average against) are also all in play if in the lineup Wednesday.
    • And finally, just a reminder that Tigers starter Mike Fiers seems to always be good for at least one homer allowed per start. He’s been hit hard by both handedness of hitter and the Athletics are swinging very potent bats at present, so I’d consider essentially the whole crew — the red-hot Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Chad Pinder, Jonathan Lucroy, Franklin Barreto, Marcus Semien and even Mark Canha as far as affordable options go. And if you’re spending up a bit, Khris Davis certainly deserves your attention, although he’ll be above the value threshold in terms of salary.

    Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

    As always, check my Twitter feed (@jcblanco22) for any last-minute suggestions, pivots and other assorted good stuff. Good luck on Wednesday’s slates!