This Week in Stats: The World Cup good, bad and lucky

The group stage is almost complete at the 2018 World Cup, but what do the numbers tell us about who has been good and bad?

The World Cup is well underway. Some teams are through, some are out and the fate of some has yet to be decided. But who has been deserving of their fate? Drawing conclusions on two games worth of statistics is a bit daft, and bear that in mind when reading this article. Equally, we can see who has been good or lucky, bad or unlucky and everywhere in between.

Running hot

When it comes to overachieving their underlying statistics, it seems Croatia are the kings. Playing a disinterested and dis-organized Argentina will have helped, as will an own goal and a penalty against Nigeria, but Zlatko Dalic’s team have scored five goals from just seven shots on target in their first two matches. Throw in the fact they haven’t conceded yet, and the Croatians top the PDO chart.

The other side whose goal has yet to be breached is Uruguay. They became the first team since Argentina in 1998 to navigate the group stage without conceding. As only Brazil have allowed a lower expected goals total, and from one game fewer too, then La Celeste’s blemish-free defensive record is fully justified.

While Uruguay breezed past Russia, the hosts wildly outperformed their stats in the group stage. If scoring eight times from 11 shots on target isn’t warm enough for you, try bagging that many goals from an xG tally of 3.53.

A little context: West Ham were the Premier League’s xG overachievers last season, by scoring 26 percent more goals than their stats suggested they should have. Russia have scored 127 percent more goals at this point. How has such a supposedly terrible team done so well? I couldn’t possibly comment.

Portugal have been another one of the hot sides. They had three shots on target in their epic draw with Spain, and just two against Morocco, but picked up four goals and four points.

The Portuguese then had four against Iran, but perhaps the law of averages prevented Ronaldo scoring his penalty. Either that, or Alireza Beiranvand, the Iranian goalkeeper.

What’s cooler than cool?

Andre 3000 would have you believe the answer to the above question is ‘ice cold’. For me, the answer is Poland.

After two games, the Poles are out of the World Cup. Across their two matches, the shot count between them and their collective opponents has been 20-21, and the shots on target count has been six each. Allowing Senegal and Colombia a total of 0.9 expected goals more than them shouldn’t be too much of a concern either.

So how on earth have they scored once but conceded five? It’s that old fool called luck again. Thiago Cionek deflected an innocuous Idrissa Gueye shot past Wojciech Szczesny against Senegal, before M’Baye Niang was gifted the second.

The Polish team then missed two clear-cut chances against Colombia, including one when they were just one goal down. Scoring 17 percent of their shots on target while saving 17 percent of their oppositions’ was never going to work. Makes you wonder why they chose to do it, doesn’t it?

Do cry for them Argentina

Poor old Lionel. He carries the weight of the nation on his diminutive frame, and gets very little in return. In the first two games he had 12 shots without scoring. Harry Kane, by contrast, had six shots but scored five goals. What Argentina wouldn’t give for a bit of that luck.

But then how unlucky have they been? Yes they missed a penalty against Iceland, but Messi gave the goalkeeper every chance of saving it.

And despite having a healthy looking 37 shots across their games with Iceland and Croatia, just three of Argentina’s attempts were clear-cut chances. Messi’s missed penalty was one, and Enzo Perez’ miss against Croatia, when the score was 0-0, was arguably just as bad. Tournaments don’t give you time to sort this stuff out. They got the luck they needed against Nigeria to advance, but it’s hard to say whether a Marcos Rojo volley is the sort of chance they’ll be able to rely on against France in the round of 16.

Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup

World’s greatest goalkeeper?

Most people would name David de Gea as the best goalkeeper around at the moment. This Week in Stats recently suggested he wasn’t even the best in the Premier League, and it must’ve rattled him. In their three matches, Spain have only conceded six shots on target, which is good. However, de Gea has conceded five goals from them, which is definitely bad.

One was a penalty, and only one in five of those are ever missed, but even so, should Spain have expected more from their number one? Let’s check the numbers, using InfoGol‘s World Cup data.

The main issue was his error for Ronaldo’s second goal, which had just a six percent chance of being scored. The free-kick was more valuable, but at 10 percent it’s only a shot of average difficulty. Morocco’s two goals were worth 0.42 and 0.09 expected goals respectively, but what of the one save de Gea made?

That was from very close range and valued at a whopping 0.63; for context, the average for a non-penalty clear-cut chance is 0.39. So de Gea saved the hardest chance (aside from a spot kick) which he faced. It’s the issue of small samples once again, which turns random factors either for you or against you. I’d certainly still take de Gea over most of the goalkeepers listed in this tweet anyway.