1 reason every John Tavares suitor could land him…and 1 reason it might not
John Tavares is the biggest prize of NHL free agency this summer. He’s narrowed his list of suitors down to six teams — which is the most likely to land him?
The anticipation for where NHL free agent center John Tavares will play hockey next season has reached a fever pitch.
Much like Steven Stamkos did two years ago, Tavares has opted to partake in the NHL’s free agency interview period leading up to the official kick-off on July 1.
It doesn’t necessarily mean that he won’t re-sign with the New York Islanders, merely that he wants to survey the landscape and get a sense of what else is out there.
As he should. Tavares has netted 621 points (272 goals, 349 assists) in 669 NHL games, making him one of the NHL’s most elite free-agent prizes in quite some time.
Like some kind of reality dating show, the six finalists are set: the Toronto Maple Leafs, Islanders, San Jose Sharks, Boston Bruins, Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning.
John Tavares and his reps no longer plan to bring any additional teams into their free-agent process after meeting with Dallas and Tampa today.
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) June 27, 2018
The field is down to six: Leafs, Islanders, Sharks, Bruins, Stars and Lightning. #TavaresWatch
Now it’s up to Tavares and his camp to weigh the pros and cons of each club — all of whom are likely contenders for a Stanley Cup championship in 2019 except, notably, his home club, the Islanders.
New York has reportedly offered Tavares an eight-year deal worth $88 million, so that’s what their competitors will be working against as they attempt to woo the center.
Here’s one reason why each of these clubs could get it done…and one reason why it might fall short.
Toronto Maple Leafs (Odds: +500)
Why they could land him: It’s no secret — as any Maple Leafs fan will shout into the void in perpetuity — that Tavares is originally from Toronto, giving the Maple Leafs an edge over ever other contender. They’re also set up to win now — a prospect that only becomes more cemented with Tavares’ talents added to the mix.
Why they might not: Getting maximum production out of both Tavares and top center Auston Matthews — while keeping both happy and, crucially, fairly paid — is a balancing act that ultimately Mike Babcock might not be able to pull off. And who do you name captain? Tavares likely already has considered all this going in.
New York Islanders (Odds: +125)
Why they could land him: The Islanders selected Tavares first overall in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. They are the only team he has ever known. At 28, signing a long-term deal with them to end his career would endear him even further to a fanbase that adores him and define his legacy. The culture change brought on by Lou Lamoriello taking over at the helm and Barry Trotz, fresh off a Cup win, taking over behind the bench are even stronger selling points.
Why they might not: Of the six teams on Tavares’ final list, the Islanders are far and away the farthest from Cup contention. The Isles also offer the least attractive arena situation; until their new arena at Belmont Park is completed, the team will split time between Nassau Coliseum and Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The Islanders had the lowest attendance of any NHL club in 2017-18. That’s a hard sell when skating out of the Shark Mouth or at high-attendance Toronto and Tampa Bay are options on the table.
San Jose Sharks (Odds: +275)
Why they could land him: The Sharks looked like they were headed all the way to the Western Conference Final this season…until the red-hot Vegas Golden Knights shocked them in a 4-1 series win. Of the last 14 seasons, the Sharks have only missed the playoffs one time. Much of that has been thanks to center Joe Thornton, and now Tavares has the opportunity to take the baton from him and continue the winning ways.
Why they might not: This might be a little out there, but there’s no question Tavares’ reps are apprising him of it anyway. Michael McCann and Robert Raiola at Sports Illustrated had a great piece on what various state and local income taxes would mean for Tavares’ earning power with the six clubs he’s considering. The Sharks would provide him with the lowest potential earnings of any U.S.-based team and of every team except Toronto, thanks to California’s tax structure. When you’re an elite player taking advantage of what could be your only free agency signing period, that matters.
Boston Bruins (Odds: +700)
Why they could land him: The Bruins are thisclose to hoisting the Stanley Cup, and Tavares is exactly what they need to get over the hump. Though many of the teams Tavares is considering are serious Cup contenders, the Bruins’ recent 2011 win has to be at the forefront of his mind — the fact that he’d be joining a group in Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci and Zdeno Chara who have been there not too long ago. That’s the best selling point a team could offer to a player who reportedly is valuing winning a Cup above everything.
Why they might not: Like the Auston Matthews situation in Toronto, coming to Boston presents a Patrice Bergeron-sized problem for Tavares. Then there’s the cap issue. Coming up with a deal worth $11 million annually appears to be tricky for the Bruins without moving some existing pieces — which obviously affects their ability to win now. David Krejci has a cap hit of $7.25 million and Tavares could easily slot into his role, but the Bruins would need to get more creative than that.
Dallas Stars (Odds: +800)
Why they could land him: Joining a top six that includes Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin has to be a huge draw for Tavares, and it’s not necessarily the case that he would have to play second fiddle to Seguin. The Stars saw a lot of success being fluid with their top two lines, and having Tavares as another puzzle piece to configure along with Benn, Seguin and Alexander Radulov would make them fearsome. Dallas would basically have lines 1a and 1b with Seguin and Tavares centering both. The question, of course, is what happens to center Jason Spezza in that situation. That’s not Tavares’ problem, but it is the Stars’.
Why they might not: Like the Bruins, landing Tavares would create a cap headache for the Stars, who need to prioritize extending Tyler Seguin past next season.
Tampa Bay Lightning (Odds: +850)
Why they could land him: The Lightning will be entering the 2018-19 season with a certain amount of swagger after finishing first in the Eastern Conference with 113 points last season. Boasting a roster that includes Tavares would make them borderline unstoppable, and he knows that. If Steven Stamkos continues centering Nikita Kucherov, Tavares could move into Brayden Point’s spot on the second line — with Point getting the attractive consolation of being able to center newly re-signed J.T. Miller on the bottom six. Despite the lowest odds of any suitor, this team might give Tavares the shortest road to a Cup.
Why they might not: Part of the reason Tampa Bay’s odds to pull this off are so low is its cap situation. The Bolts currently have about $5 million in cap space. They’re going to likely need to more than double that to make a Tavares signing a reality. To make Steve Yzerman’s life even more difficult, Kucherov and Point will both need extensions beyond this upcoming season. Unfortunately for the Lightning (and fortunately for the Atlantic Division), the math may just not work out here.