MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Wednesday, June 27th
Before we get to today’s edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, we’ll look back at how Wednesday’s suggestions fared in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.
In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.
It was a fairly solid night overall for Bargain Bin suggestions Wednesday, although a couple of teams I was expecting bigger things from certainly underperformed.
- We’ll begin with pitching, where Ivan Nova did manage to turn in a six-inning quality start. Nova allowed a tolerable three earned runs, but by only recording a pair of strikeouts, he capped his overall fantasy ceiling.
- The Mariners’ Wade LeBlanc, my second bargain suggestion, was nowhere near as hittable as in his last start versus the Red Sox, but he still pitched to a bit more contact than I would have preferred. LeBlanc gave up seven hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings in a no-decision, also managing just a pair of strikeouts.
- My Citi Field plans didn’t exactly unfold in the order I’d imagined, but ultimately, several left-handed Pirates bats did exploit the tired Mets bullpen I’d written about yesterday. Pittsburgh mounted a four-run comeback in the ninth, with a lot of the damage coming off closer Jeurys Familia. Bargain Austin Meadows actually got the rally started in the eighth with a sacrifice fly after contributing a single earlier in the game, while bargain suggestions Gregory Polanco (2-for-3, one walk, one RBI, one run) and Josh Bell (1-for-4, one RBI) pushed runs across in the final frame. Another two, Corey Dickerson and Colin Moran, each produced two-hit nights.
- The Mariners were able to get to Alex Cobb a bit as I’d hoped they would, and bargain suggestions Mike Zunino and Ryon Healy both came through nicely. Healy became the latest right-handed bat to leave the yard at Camden Yards versus Cobb with a solo shot, while Zunino extended his career success versus the Orioles starter with a two-run single in the fifth that chased Cobb from the game.
- Over in the Windy City, the good James Shields showed up Wednesday and was stellar while delivering seven shutout innings. That left my one suggested Twins bargain bat that was in the lineup, Brian Dozier, with just a single in four at-bats.
- There were more positive developments at Fenway, where Rick Porcello‘s issues against both left-handed hitters and Ian Kinsler surfaced like clockwork. Bargain suggestion Kole Calhoun had a rare multi-hit effort and also scored once, while Luis Valbuena had only one hit, but it was a double off the Red Sox right-hander. He also added an RBI later in the game on a groundout. Meanwhile, Kinsler continued to torture Porcello by smacking a solo home run off him in the fifth, opening the scoring on the night for the Angels.
- Kudos to Kyle Freeland of the Rockies and the Colorado bullpen, who overcame a poor history against several Giants to turn in a gem and mostly negate my San Fran bargain bats. Hunter Pence and Gorkys Hernandez did manage a single apiece, but Joe Panik came up empty and late Twitter suggestion Buster Posey only managed a walk.
- Finally, over in Motown, Mike Fiers also defied history a bit by completely staying away from the long ball for only the fourth time this season. However, a few A’s bargain bats managed to still offer decent production — Jed Lowrie smacked a pair of doubles, drew a walk and drove in a run; Matt Olson, Chad Pinder and Franklin Barreto all contributed a single apiece; and late Twitter suggestion Dustin Fowler had a key RBI double late. Stephen Piscotty was the one bargain bat that came up empty on his four at-bats.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):
Healy, Kinsler leave yard– Each only had one hit on the night, but it was a solo homer that allowed them to easily pay off their bargain prices.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):
Dozier, Giants bat quiet- Strong performances by both the White Sox’s James Shields and the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland helped lead to nothing more than a single from Dozier and several San Francisco hitters.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, June 28th All Slates Quick Hits
With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!
Welcome to a Thursday “Quick Hits” edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.
Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
- This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Thursday’s various slates!
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, June 28th All Slates Quick Hits
- Selecting a bargain pitcher Thursday doesn’t come without risk, but the Red Sox’s Brian Johnson is one to roll the dice on in larger tournaments. The Angels have a .278 wOBA, 76 wRC+, -4.3 wRAA and 23.4 percent strikeout rate versus lefties on the road in the last month (158 plate appearances), and with Thursday being a “getaway day”, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a big bat or two take a seat. Johnson has primarily pitched in relief this season, but he made five starts in 2017 and was impressive in the one game he did open this season — he allowed the Marlins only one run over six innings on April 2. He brings solid strikeout upside as well and is priced very reasonably across all four sites.
- The Brewers’ Junior Guerra holds appeal as well, although he’s pricier than Johnson. He’s already stymied the Reds once this season (5.2 scoreless innings and seven strikeouts on April 17), and he’s been even better on the road (2.60 ERA and .212 BAA) than at home (2.94 ERA and .219 BAA). However, the one risky component here is how good the Reds have been against righties at home over the last month (.379 wOBA).
- There’s a trio of particularly big-name arms on the hill Thursday, and although none are untouchable, I’m going to only advocate targeting Zack Greinke with multiple bargain bats. Greinke has allowed a .345 wOBA and nine homers to right-handed hitters on the road, so bargain plays such as Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson and Miguel Rojas are worthy of consideration. Greinke has also yielded a .337 wOBA to lefties outside of Chase Field, so I’d give Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich (if priced reasonably) consideration for large tournaments as well.
On the other side of the same matchup, the Marlins’
has been touched up for a .356 wOBA and 46.9 percent hard contact rate by right-handed hitters at home. Diamondbacks right-handed bargain plays such as
therefore deserve some attention.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, June 28th All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)
White Sox starter
has been an equal-opportunity facilitator of fantasy production to both handedness of hitter in his home park. With a tendency to exhibit control problemsand
allow home runs — as well as a bullpen with a 6.75 ERA and .351 wOBA allowed over the last week — I wouldn’t shy away from going right back to some Twins bargain plays of either handedness. That should put the likes of Brian Dozier,
in play, among others.
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- On the other side, Jake Odorizzi hasn’t exactly been sharp recently, and he’s yielded seven homers on the road thus far this season. As with Giolito, he’s been hit hard from both sides of the plate, so consider Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Tim Anderson, Kevan Smith and Avisail Garcia and Matt Davidson if they’re priced reasonably enough. The same certainly applies to Jose Abreu, whose price remains modest on some sites.
- The Mariners could potentially be in the best offensive spot of the day against spot starter Jimmy Yacabonis and a tired and ineffective Orioles bullpen. Yacabonis owns a robust 15.43 ERA over 2.1 big-league innings this season, and he’s been markedly more vulnerable (although not terrible) to left-handed bats in the minors. However, Orioles relievers could be just as big a target here, considering Yacabonis may not last long and the Baltimore bullpen has already logged the third-most innings of any in the majors this past week. They’re also allowing a 5.20 ERA and .363 wOBA over that span, so any affordably priced Seattle bats — such as Ben Gamel, Ryon Healy, Denard Span, Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager — are open to consideration in my book. The same applies to Mitch Haniger if you find his salary to be reasonable enough.
- The Rockies’ Jon Gray has been pretty bad overall this season, although he was excellent against the Marlins in his last start while racking up 12 strikeouts. The Giants aren’t exactly filling up the box score recently, but it’s worth noting that the reasonably priced Andrew McCutchen owns a career .583 average against Gray over 12 career at-bats. Brandon Crawford has also been very successful versus the righty (.444 average), but be aware his price may fall outside of true value range on some sites.
- And finally, I always like targeting Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, and from both sides of the plate at that. Lefty bats have touched him up for a .378 wOBA overall, and although a fair amount of that trouble has come on the road, he’s still allowing a .354 wOBA, 27.3 percent line drive rate and 37.5 percent hard contact rate to them at home. Meanwhile, right-handed hitters own a .402 wOBA and 57.7 percent hard contact rate against him at Great American Ballpark. While both samples are relatively modest, I’d give affordable Brewers bats from both handedness consideration (with a slight preference to lefty hitters). Depending on the site, that could certainly include Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames and Ryan Braun if priced reasonably enough, along with definite bargain guys like Orlando Arcia, Manny Pina and Jonathan Villar. It’s also worth noting that the Reds bullpen’s splits against left-handed hitters at home are much worse over the last month in particular, as they’re allowing a 5.40 ERA and 45.2 percent hard contact to that handedness at Great American.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis all season long!