Why the San Jose Sharks are unlikely to land John Tavares

With six teams still in “contention” for the services of John Tavares, it’s time to shoot down the idea that he’ll be giving his rose to the San Jose Sharks.

Right now we’re about three days off from a free agency free-for-all. Come Sunday, July 1, almost every team is going to be tripping each other for superstars and shoving their way to the checkout counter in the hopes of attaining a game-changing face for the franchise. It’s truly the NHL’s Black Friday (but Sunday). What a time to be alive!

While there are plenty of talented names that will be available, we all wait with bated hockey breath to hear John Tavares’ decision and which team he’s going to make an instant favorite for the Stanley Cup next season.

In fact, he finished the final two of his overall six meetings on Wednesday and there’s been a guarantee that those six clubs are final. He will be speaking to no one else and they’ll like it. Those in the running are the Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks, New York Islanders, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning.

While all of those teams offer various pros and cons — and you can read about them here from our very own Michelle Bruton — one sticking point that’s sure to be a factor is money. Specifically, which team can truly offer him the most once Uncle Sam (in America, anyways) has rummaged through the books.

Yesterday, Michael McCann and Robert Raiola from Sports Illustrated broke down what each team can give in terms of financial security, and what it would truly come to after taxes and other elements have taken their toll.

It isn’t looking pretty for the San Jose Sharks.

Let’s first understand that Tavares may not have money as a sole factor in where he lands, but it is absolutely one of them. The Sharks, along with all others except New York (the Islanders can give the max of eight years), can currently offer seven years and anywhere from $11 million to $12 million per season. But the number itself is deceptive if you don’t factor in state and federal taxes.

Since federal will count the same regardless of where he goes (except for Canada), state becomes vastly important in the finances game. And California is a giant hand wading deep into the pockets, sitting here on the coast with the highest income tax rate across the U.S. at 13.3 percent.

What that means is that, when all is said and done, Tavares could sign with San Jose for $11 million a year and really only make less than $5 million ($4.8 to be exact), far below what Dallas can offer ($5.9 million) and still below what a return to New York could net him ($5.2 million).

Those figures don’t look incredibly horrid, right? Wrong. Factor that over the entirety of the contract and he’s losing a whopping $7 million at least.

McCann and Raiola brought up the idea that, well, why don’t teams simply up the ante and offer Tavares above $11 million or $12 million? They can max the deal at $15.9 million (a max deal can only be 20 percent of the cap) and solve the issue of taxes and whatever else comes along.

Look to the rumor mill in San Jose and you’ll find that probably isn’t feasible, at least not for the Sharks. If news is to be believed, they’re currently planning a massive extension for Logan Couture. Somewhere in the neighborhood of eight years. Right now he’s set for another year at $6 million, but he just led the team in goals with 34 and was third in points at 61. That $6 million is sure to have gone up to at least $7 or $8 million.

Whatever that chunk of change comes to, it’s likely to leave them a tad under $17 or $18 million in cap space. A max deal would leave them on the high-end about $2 million to resign restricted free agent Tomas Hertl (46 points), Chris Tierney (40 points) and fill holes left by other unrestricted free agents. It just isn’t happening.

That isn’t to say they positively won’t sign Tavares to a deal worth $11 million. San Jose is in prime position to contend and would be a good fit. They have a veteran presence (Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns) with young studs (Evander Kane) ready to keep them in the conversation. The biggest question is, will Tavares be comfortable losing so much money on the off-chance that this is the right choice.

Losing $7 million is a big deal. Whether you’re already rich or not, that’s a few houses down the drain (or a third of a house if you live in California). He can say all he wants that financial gain isn’t a priority, but behind closed doors we know it’s at least swirling around in his head.

Next: 5 NHL teams John Tavares should stay away from in 2018-19

Think we got it wrong? Have a super strong opinion on why the Sharks will positively land John Tavares? Let us know on Twitter @FanSidedNHL, or go to the FanSided NHL hub for more content!