DFS MLB Game By Game Breakdown – Friday, June 29

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the monster 15 game slate on tap for tonight so let’s get moving!

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Yankees

Red Sox Probable Starter – Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP 

3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .310 wOBA, 38.5 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .298 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard hit rate

The lefty for the Red Sox has some upside for tonight but is far from safe in cash games. He’s a solid tournament option with the strikeout upside and he’s already had a really good game in Yankee Stadium once this season, scoring 39 points. New York will put out six players with an ISO over .200 against lefty pitching and that will be led by Giancarlo Stanton with a massive .468 to go along with a 1.220 OPS.

Stanton can beat up on any lefty in baseball and he’s firmly in play for this evening as a high-end option. He’s probably your best bet for a one-off play from this side of the game but I don’t mind. Yankees stack with Stanton and then a mix of Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Judge. Anudjar is the cheapest and has a .282 ISO and only carries a 16.2 strikeout rate which is appealing. I wouldn’t roster any Yankee that hits lefty as Rodriguez has owned that side of the plate.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.18 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .189 average, .305 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 18.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .309 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 37.3 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

Sabathia has been the definition of a crafty veteran lefty so far this year. There’s nothing eye-popping about his stats at any point but he manages to get things done. Seeing as he’s been viable this season, there are two hitters that I want and it’s the same two hitters against lefties that we always chase – Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. What becomes virtually impossible is trying to pick between these two sluggers. It seems like whenever I pay up for one, it’s the other that has a big game. I tend to lean towards Betts because he offers a little bit more of an all-around game but I have no issue with just taking whoever is cheaper and slightly easier to fit within the budget. Much like the New York side, I don’t want any lefty hitters in this spot and would just consider Xander Bogaerts or Eduardo Nunez as other options.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts

Home Run Pick – Miguel Andujar

DFS MLB – Angels at Orioles

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 25.5 strikeout rate (11.2 IP)

Vs LHH – .417 average, .473 wOBA, 7.4 K rate, 22.7 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .291 wOBA, 42.9 K rate, 57.1 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

It’s a very short sample size but Pena hasn’t been fooling lefty hitters even a little bit at this point. It’s a good thing for him that the Orioles basically don’t have any really good lefties to hurt him and he’s not the craziest option at $5,800 on FanDuel if you want to go nuts with hitters. For the purposes of the splits, the most attractive options from the Baltimore side of things would be value options of Colby Rasmus and Chris Davis. It’s a little gross to click Submit with Davis in your lineup but he has hit a home run in two straight games and is $2,100. That makes things pretty easy to handle if he doesn’t have a big game. You can add in Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo if you’d like but I’m betting that there are better spots as we move along.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Colby Rasmus, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP 

5.44 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 13.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .299 average, .383 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 46.6 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .332 wOBA, 11.8 K rate, 48.5 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

One of the better stack options of the night might just be in this side of the game as Hess just isn’t major league quality at this point. The average to righties is lower than that to lefties but the other metrics are about identical across the board. Many of the pieces are super affordable as well which means you can take three or four Angels and not have to make massive sacrifices. Ian Kinsler, Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun and of course Mike Trout would all be in this mix for me. The most expensive player other than Trout is Kinsler and he’s just $3,100. I personally very rarely play Justin Upton because he’s little too much boom or bust and he’s typically near $4,000, like he is tonight.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler

Secondary Options – Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Nationals at Phillies

Nationals Probable Starter – Erick Fedde, RHP 

5.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .333 wOBA, 14.0 K rate, 20.6 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .370 average, .388 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

If you’ve been around for this article before, you know that I sometimes have issues playing a pitcher against an offense he just saw. I really have an issue with it when the pitcher is one like Fedde, who hasn’t exactly looked great yet in the majors. This past start against the Phillies was technically a quality start but it was by the barest of margins. He’s not giving up fly balls which does give me a little bit of pause about going with a Philly stack but $3,600 for Rhys Hoskins is awfully cheap considering how Fedde has looked against righty hitters so far and Hoskins has been hitting homers frequently lately. The other big names for the Phillies will bat left-handed but that doesn’t worry me too much. I would lean Carlos Santana or Cesar Hernandez since their price is a bit more reasonable than Odubel Herrera‘s. I wouldn’t be shocked if Fedde gets touched up but this one isn’t my favorite so far.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

4.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 28.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .347 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 40.8 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .269 wOBA, 31.9 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

I would normally not mind Pivetta but he does have a couple of factors working against him before he even throws his first pitch. The first one is his price point. He’s fifth most expensive on the slate which leaves him in no man’s land to me. I’d either push to get an ace or I’d drop back and pay less for more bats. He also just pitched against this offense and Pivetta is significantly worse against lefties which is a problem against the Nats. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper and Adam Eaton stand out as potential landmines for Pivetta tonight. Daniel Murphy is also a lefty and he’s cheap but he’s still looking pretty rough. I think Soto would be my number one play but I’d be more interested in stacking the lefties here or letting it be. The best GPP play is probably Harper because nobody is going to play him given his current form.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton

Home Run Pick – Rhys Hoskins

DFS MLB – Tigers at Blue Jays

Tigers Probable Starter – Francisco Liriano, LHP 

3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .100 average, .211 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 20.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .328 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Before Toronto made a late night trade with the Boston Red Sox, this was what I had written up for the Blue Jays and lefty killer Steve Pearce.

"Even on a bigger slate tonight, Steve Pearce could wind up being very chalky. He’s going to likely be leading off against a mediocre lefty who really isn’t good against righty hitters. Pearce is on the roster to hit lefties and he doesn’t strike out all that much to go along with his .380 wOBA and .288 ISO. Oh, and he’s just $2,500 on FanDuel so he’s an excellent salary saver."

Since he’s gone, the Jays don’t have a clear-cut value but Randall Grichuk would be interesting. He also led off recently so that also makes things interesting. Teoscar Hernandez is also really cheap given his skill set against southpaws at $3,100 and he’ll definitely get earmarked into the player pool as we keep digging into the rest of the slate. He does strike out about 26 percent of the time so there’s little more risk there. I don’t think we need to force many other Jays into the lineup tonight.

Blue Jays Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -Teoscar Hernandez, Randall Grichuk

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

6.80 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .305 average, .353 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 18.6 fly ball rate and 45.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .274 average, .341 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 22.6 fly ball rate and 45.5 hard hit rate

I was able to watch some of the last start Stroman made and he looked impressive and in control. He showed his best velocity of the season and was able to cruise through five innings on under 90 pitches. He should throw more tonight and draws a favorable matchup against a Detroit team that can be susceptible to righty pitching. They rank 25th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far in 2018 and Stroman is at home… and he’s barely over $6,000 on FanDuel. It almost seems like a trap but I’m definitely willing to roll that dice in GPP’s. If you get 35 points with a ceiling of 45, you should be in good shape as long as your hitters cooperate. This is a case where the metrics look ver poor because it seems like Stroman tried to pitch through injury early on. I don’t want Tiger hitters this evening.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Randall Grichuk

DFS MLB – Astros at Rays

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.56 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 36.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .173 average, .254 wOBA, 41.9 K rate, 46.8 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .166 average, .245 wOBA, 30.9 K rate, 45.1 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

The big righty from Houston is in play tonight but I do like two other high-end options a bit more than him this evening. Cole has seen his game slip just a hair lately, including starting to give up more walks. His fly ball tendencies shouldn’t hurt in Tropicana Field tonight and I’d be surprised if he scored less than 40 points. While that’s great to have that almost locked in, he’s not as attractive as the other options. I’m not playing a single Rays hitter anywhere this evening.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wilson Ramos

Rays Probable Starter – Wilmer Font, RHP 

6.46 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .390 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 46.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .373 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Font has been impressive in his time in the Tampa rotation and he’s built his arm strength up to the point where he should be expected to go a full six innings if he can navigate this Houston lineup. The Astros can ruin any pitcher on any given night but I think this is a spot that I won’t have a ton of exposure to. In the 22 innings he’s logged with Tampa, Font has a 1.64 ERA and it seems the Rays have figured something out that Oakland could not with him. He’s due plenty of regression but I’m not going to burn considerable salary on the Astros unless I feel like they’re going to smash. Font’s last two start have been 10.1 innings against the Yankees and he gave up one earned run and struck out nine. This is a stack em up or runaway spot for me.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Astros stack in GPPs(Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick)

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick –  Evan Gattis

DFS MLB – Brewers at Reds

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

4.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .304 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .223 average, .326 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

I truthfully have no idea why the averages against Anderson are so low give how many fly balls and hard hits he’s surrendering. I do know that I would want the three best hitters that Cincy has against righty pitching and that’s Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. They’re all at their normal price ranges and Votto burned some players in his last game after he got himself ejected after his first at-bat. He’s really come on lately and been the Votto fantasy players have always known him to be. If you’re looking for the cheap option, look no further than Jesse Winker who is still highly affordable and has been running hot the past two weeks. I don’t know if I’d have the stomach to play him but Billy Hamilton has actually been fairly useful lately as well. Stolen bases are a big boost to the lineup, if Hamilton can get on base.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options –Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker, Billy Hamilton

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 16.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .301 average, .373 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .314 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

It would be pretty surprising if both Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar weren’t popular this evening. They both deserve to be owned as they hit home runs yesterday and Romano struggles with lefty hitters. While those two will get a lot of the attention, you can go against the grain with Travis Shaw or Brad Miller. Shaw recently sat a few games with a wrist injury so I do believe that he’s a little risky from that perspective. Miller however is a lefty hitter that has the power to put a ball into the seats. He’s also very cheap and should be in the lineup in a prime batting spot tonight. He’s the perfect GPP play tonight and can even be used in cash games if you need the savings.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Brad Miller

Home Run Pick – Brad Miller

DFS MLB – Mets at Marlins

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 31.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .284 wOBA, 28.4 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .169 average, .202 wOBA, 34.5 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 28.7 hard hit rate

It’s a true coin flip tonight between deGrom and the highest priced player on the slate, which we’ll get to shortly. This is a prime spot for deGrom to dominate(and possibly show off to other teams) as the Marlins offense isn’t very good. I don’t make a habit of using Marlins hitters when the matchup isn’t all that bad. You can take it to the bank that I won’t use them against one of the best pitchers in baseball in a pitcher’s park. The only way you use them is if you stack them as a leverage play in GPP’s in case deGrom has an implosion start.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Leverage stack

Marlins Probable Starter – Sandy Alcantara, RHP 

*Season Debut, career stats* 4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .366 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 14.3 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .384 wOBA, 33.3 K rate, 55.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

This will be the first time Alcantara starts a game in the majors and he doesn’t exactly draw a powerhouse offense. I will say the Mets ranked higher in some offensive categories as a team than I thought they would but the slate is too large to sink a lot of salary into them. Brandon Nimmo would seemingly be the play here as he’s destroyed righty pitching this season.

The 25-year-old outfielder is in the middle of a breakout campaign and has tormented righty pitching with a .437 wOBA and a .326 ISO. The fact that he missed a couple of games at the start of the week have driven his price back low and $3,000 is hard to look past, regardless of park factors. He’s also cheaper than Michael Conforto and that locks up Nimmo for me 100 times out of 100 with a right on the mound. You can take a shot at Jose Bautista or Wilmer Flores here as well since we have no idea what Alcantra has up his sleeve. It’s just not the most ideal route.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options – Jose Bautista, Wilmer Flores, Michael Confroto, Asdrubal Cabrera

Home Run Pick – Jose Bautista

DFS MLB – White Sox at Rangers

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

3.45 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .281 average, .328 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .244 wOBA,  17.3 K rate, 19.4 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

It’s starting to look like Covey is turning into a pumpkin as he’s been getting knocked around his past two starts. While he does a really solid job of generating ground balls, walking into Arlington isn’t the spot to get right for a pitcher. His strikeouts have vanished the past two starts and he’s not a strikeout pitcher to begin with. I want the lefties in this spot and that’s starting with Shin-soo Choo. He’s the best hitter on the Rangers against righty pitching and he’s followed by Nomar Mazara. One intriguing tournament options is Rougned Odor. He’s been heating up lately and while he’s not a safe play by any means, he does offer a nice combo of reasonable salary and upside. I’m sure some will point to Joey Gallo since he’s just $2,800 but I can’t do it. He’s been so poor lately I fully expect a three or less every time out right now. Ground ball pitchers can rise up and shut down any offenses but I think Covey is in for a rough ride.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Secondary Options – Rougned Odor, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus

Rangers Probable Starter – Yovani Gallardo, RHP 

12.08 ERA, 2.29 WHIP and 13.6 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .310 average, .444 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 24.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .393 average, .463 wOBA, 16.1 K rate, 43.5 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

You can make a very compelling argument that Gallardo is the worst pitcher on the slate, full stop. He did pick up a win last time but he didn’t pitch well. I wish the White Sox offense was better than  it is because this would be the best stack of the night. While that’s certainly still an option, I may be a bit more limited in my exposure. Bad offense in good spots can come up small and if you played the Padres in Texas the past few days, you know what I’m talking about. The four hitters that I might mix in tonight are Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson and Daniel Palka. Everyone is very affordable and in too good of a spot to completely ignore tonight. The only way I’d play Gallardo is if someone wanted to stake me and it wasn’t my money to throw away.

White Sox Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Secondary Options – Daniel Palka, Matt Davidson

Home Run Pick – Jose Abreu

DFS MLB – Braves at Cardinals

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .345 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 44.5 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .195 average, .301 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

One of the bigger mysteries for me is how Teheran has been a reasonably effective pitcher given all his extremely poor metrics and reduced velocity. It’s the same song and dance anytime he’s pitching which means he should go out there and get tagged but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a decent start. It boils down to three options and they’re Matt Carpenter(who’s on a tear), Jose Martinez and Yadier Molina. I don’t know what has happened to Tommy Pham, but he’s fallen off a cliff and I don’t even consider him an option at the moment. Carpenter and Martinez are my favorites with wOBA’s over .385 and ISO’s over .200 against righty pitching this season. Molina himself is cheap but has turned into a home run or bust type of player.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez

Secondary Options – Yadier Molina

Cardinals Probable Starter – Mile Mikolas, RHP 

2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .310 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .161 average, .191 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 24.4 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

This might not be the best matchup for Mikolas tonight. He’s been death to righties so far but lefties have gotten to him a fair amount. He should have to deal with at least Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis although Ender Inciarte could miss this game with some oblique discomfort. Something that might not be know that well is Johan Carmago has been about the exact same as Ozzie Albies against righty pitching this year. The biggest difference is Albies hits for more power so he has a higher ISO. Carmago walks a lot more and the wOBA and OPS are very close for both players. Albies is $2,100 more expensive so I’ll let you draw your own conclusions there. I’m as excited as anyone that Ronald Acuna is back tonight but he doesn’t seem like the wisest investment. We’ll have to pick another spot to play the wunderkid.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options – Ender Inciarte, Johan Carmago, Ozzie Albies

Home Run Pick – Jose Martinez

DFS MLB – Giants at Diamondbacks

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

4.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .172 average, .206 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 28.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .310 average, .368 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 29.1 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Paul Goldschmidt is at home facing an average left-handed pitcher who has been getting smoked by righty hitters. About the only way I won’t play Goldy tonight is if he just doesn’t fit into the budget with everyone else. The Diamondbacks let a lot of people down in a monster spot the other night in Miami and that very well could keep their ownership down very low tonight. In addition to Goldschmidt, some other cheap options include John Ryan Murphy and Nick Ahmed. Both after $2,600 and have wOBA’s over .370 and ISO’s over .255. I wouldn’t talk you out of Ketel Marte either as his numbers are very similar. It’s just a matter of price with the D-Backs tonight. Coming home is still an upgrade in park factor over Miami and Suarez could be in for a long night this evening.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, John Ryan Murphy, Nick Ahmed

Secondary Options – Daniel Decalso, Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 32.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .257 average, .344 wOBA, 30.1 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .184 average, .237 wOBA, 33.1 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

If you want to use Corbin tonight, I can’t blame you as he’s coming off a 13 strikeout domination of the Pittsburgh Pirates. I don’t think that’s who I will use but he’s on the radar for sure. Corbin really needed a good start because his season was starting to veer off track just a little. There is some hesitation here as four Giants have a wOBA over .350 against lefties in 2018 and they’ll see a park upgrade. The catch could be that this will be the fourth start against San Francisco already this year. His current stats look really good with 20.2 innings pitched and only four runs given up with 24 strikeouts. Is this finally the point that the Giants maybe figure him out a little bit? I’m not sure I’m willing to pay close to five figures to find out. Even given my concerns with Corbin, I’m not in a hurry to put any Giants hitter in my lineup.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Options –Buster Posey, Nick Hundley, Brandon Crawford

Home Run Pick – Ketel Marte

DFS MLB – Indians at A’s

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.44 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 31.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .198 average, .256 wOBA, 33.2 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .267 wOBA, 30.5 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

I’m not sure at this stage which pitcher will be the chalk but Bauer could wind up being a massive late night hammer. He is the most expensive pitcher on the board but if you’re willing to pay up for deGrom, it stands to reason you can find the extra $300 on FanDuel and pay for Bauer. Since May 16th, Bauer has pitched 56 innings. He has struck out a Scherzer-like 83 hitters. His low water mark in points during this time span has been 46 points and he’s been over 50 in five of eight starts. Oakland has a solid offense but they strikeout 22 percent of the time against righties. It’s Bauer or bust in this spot.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -None

A’s Probable Starter – Paul Blackburn, RHP 

8.83 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 14.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .372 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .371 wOBA, 11.6 K rate, 20.6 fly ball rate and 20.6 hard hit rate

By the metrics that we normally look at, Blackburn is a really weird pitcher. The average, wOBA and K rate are all just terrible but you get to the fly balls and hart hit rate and those look really good! The Indians are one of the more expensive stacks on the night but it’s hard to not want at least a small piece of this matchup. The cheapest of the big guns is Edwin Encarnacion but I think my favorite “affordable” option is Michael Brantley. Jose Ramirez is one of the best offensive players in baseball(shameless plug time) and he’s an incredible option tonight, even at $5,000. Brantley is $800 cheaper and I normally only pay the premium for Francisco Lindor when there’s a lefty on the mound. Blackburn is in just an awful spot this evening.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso

Home Run Pick – Michael Brantley

DFS MLB – Rockies at Dodgers

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.62 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .344 average, .449 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .311 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 38.8 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

As long as he’s still hitting near the top of the order, Kike Hernandez remains easy money on FanDuel at $2,900. I don’t understand why his price isn’t moving given his recent production but he’s one of the premier shortstop options on the board tonight. He’s likely a block for me at this point. Since Anderson has pretty poor splits against lefty hitters, Max Muncy is a slam dunk high-end option because he hits lefty pitching well with a .414 wOBA and a .339 ISO in his 160 at-bats. If you don’t have the budget, Joc Pederson has almost identical numbers in a larger sample size and he’s just $2,700. Pederson will likely hit towards the bottom of the order but he’s so cheap it doesn’t really matter. Hitters like Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp and Justin Turner could put the cherry on top of a Dodger late night hammer stack.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson

Secondary Options -Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

5.30 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .268 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .294 average, .400 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 46.9 hard hit rate

Man, the Rockies righties are in a fantastic spot tonight. Rich Hill has not been good this year and the middle of the order for Colorado is built to wreck lefty pitching. DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are all in play here with Arenado being the best play with a bullet. His wOBA is .555, his ISO is .442, the OPS is 1.372 and he walks more than he strikes out. Rich Hill shouldn’t scare you in the least. Story is more of a GPP style player because the floor is low but the ceiling is 50 points. LeMahieu is a solid cash game option as he should be able to get on base a couple of times and chip in by multiple outlets. There’s a lot of lefties throughout the Rockies lineup so those three hitters will likely be it for me here. Colorado is vulnerable on the road but Hill is likely getting smacked by the righty portion of the lineup. This game stack could do some damage if you land on the correct hitters.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Joc Pederson

DFS MLB – Royals at Mariners

Royals Probable Starer – Ian Kennedy, RHP

5.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .269 average, .347 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 45.1 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .268 average, .346 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

If you’ve been trying to target against Kennedy these past few weeks, you’ve likely been pretty disappointed. Kennedy got blasted the start of the month for eight runs but since then has only given up eight earned in four starts. I don’t really trust that to be the case the rest of the way and you can definitely use some Mariners tonight. I’m thinking I’ll leave this spot alone because Kennedy incapable of throwing a decent game and I don’t want to be staring at him dealing and my Seattle players having no points. I have a sneaky feeling he figures things out again and burns Seattle owners. If you think Kennedy is due to get hit hard, I’m focused on the top of the Seattle order. That means Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger. It seems odd to say it but Kennedy’s recent form is enough to get me paranoid and I’m likely off this game.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Nelson Cruz, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura

Secondary Options -Mitch Haniger, Denard Span

Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP 

4.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .296 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 27.1 fly ball rate and 42.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .326 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

This side of the game is very easy to break down because it’s either you play Whit Merrifield or you pretend it doesn’t exist. Merrifield is a borderline lock for me at $2,900 because he smashes lefty pitching. On the season, the Royals second baseman has a 1.041 OPS, .232 ISO and .441 wOBA. Maybe the home run upside isn’t exactly high but Merrifield also has eight stolen bases against lefty pitching. Gonzales has been serviceable but he’s nothing special. The Royals offense is just very bland right now and Gonzales doesn’t have the upside to match some of the higher end pitchers tonight.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz

DFS MLB – Pirates at Padres

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .293 average, .346 wOBA, 15.6 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .311 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard hit rate

If there’s a pitcher that can rival  Marcus Stroman as the best value play of the night, I think we’re looking at it. Musgrove started hot with the Pirates but has hit the skids recently This is a big-time bounce-back spot for him tonight because the Padres offense simply isn’t that good. Not only do they strike out at the second highest rate in baseball against righty pitching but they rank 27th or worse in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. That is startlingly poor and they play in a pitcher’s park to boot. If you played at all during the week when the Friars were in Texas, you know how bad that offense can be. If you’re not playing Musgrove, run away from this side of the game.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP 

5.05 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH -.271 average, .330 wOBA, 11.3 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .318 average, .386 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

The metrics look pretty awful and one might think the Bucs are a sneaky stacking option However, Lauer has been pitching a lot better in his last five starts. During that timeframe, Lauer has pitched 27.2 innings and has only given up seven earned runs. If you really want a part of the Pittsburgh offense, Elias Diaz is the front runner sine he rakes lefty pitching during his career sample size. Since Lauer is a young pitcher, he could potentially find his stride at any point in the bigs. If he pitches as well as he has lately, money spent on the Pirates offense is going to be a pretty major waste. This might be the least fantasy relevant games of the late night block. It doesn’t seem like the best plan to go crazy in this spot.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Elias Diaz, Austin Meadows, Starling Marte, josh Harrison

Home Run Pick – Josh Harrison

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Trevor Bauer 

C/1B – Chris Davis 

2B – Whit Merrifield 

3B – Miguel Andujar 

SS – Kike Hernadez

OF – Joc Pederson, Kole Calhoun, Brandon Nimmo 

Utility – Rhys Hoskins 

It’s the big mamma jamma slate tonight and the goal of the sample lineup was to show you that it is possible to make a decent offense even if you decide to pitch Bauer. He’s not a lock for me but he’s on fire to such an extent that I’m considering paying $12,000 for him. If it’s not Bauer, it will likely be deGrom in my cash games.

I try not to lead you guys astray and be honest with you so let me be blunt – putting Chris Davis in there hurts my soul and the baseball fan in me. He sucks as a player, there’s really no other way to say it. However, he’s hitting a little bit and I need the salary to spend elsewhere. It helps that Merrifield is drastically underpriced and I want a small part of the Yankee offense, I think. Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher so we’ll see how things work out during the day.

After that point, I’ll double down on Dodgers that kill lefty pitching and fit very nicely into my budget. Calhoun should go overlooked and I’m hoping that fixing his swing continues to pay off. With the lineup construction, I’m really banking on Nimmo and Hoskins to do some heavy lifting. There’s a lot of really good offensive spots tonight and it’s a tough call to pay for Bauer or any other ace tonight. Stroman and Musgrove will open up a lot of money for GPP lineups tonight.

The Core – Whit Merrifield, Kike Hernadez, Rhys Hoskins

Stacks to Consider – Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Brewers/Reds game stack, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Dodgers/Rockies game stack

Next: FanDuel World Cup DFS Picks

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.