Brazil vs. Mexico: 5 key matchups

Brazil take on Mexico in the World Cup round of 16. Here are five key matchups that could decide the result.

This round of 16 matchup was shaping up to be a rematch of the famous 7-1 “Maracanazo,” until Germany’s campaign went up in flames, as they lost their decisive match against South Korea and finished last in their group. So here we are, with a very tasty contest between two teams, Brazil and Mexico, who feature top-class attacks and for the most part play free-flowing, creative soccer.

Here are five key matchups that could determine the outcome of the game.

Neymar vs. Mexico’s defense

Neymar came into the World Cup with some injury concerns as he recovered from a broken foot, leaving pundits to debate whether the Brazilian superstar was at 70 percent or 85 percent or some other arbitrary number.

Over the course of the three group stage games, Neymar’s performances have improved, and he showed flashes of brilliance in the last game against Serbia. The treatment from opposing defenses has been consistent in its aggressive, physical form, but whereas Switzerland seemed to stifle Neymar, the super-agressive tackling and airtight man marking had mixed results for Serbia. With three tough games behind him and no obvious signs of injury it would be reasonable to expect Neymart to be in better shape and more of a menace against opponents now than at the start of the tournament.

On the other hand, the Mexican defense has shown some worrying signs of mental breakdowns of late, failing to close down their men and offering way too much space to opposing attackers against Sweden. Clearly this resulted in a 3-0 loss that could have had disastrous implications. If Sweden’s forwards were able to find the space and take advantage of the Mexican defense, we can rest assured Neymar can do the same or better.

To add to Mexico’s matchup issues against Neymar, Hector Moreno, one of their starting center-backs, is suspended due to a red card picked up in their last group game. The question is to what extent will Juan Carlos Osorio be able to adjust and address El Tri’s defensive set-up both from a personnel and a strategic perspective.

Marcelo vs. Miguel Layun and Andres Guardado

Speaking of recovering from injuries, it looks like Marcelo will be fit for the Mexico game after fighting off a classic case of soft mattress, which caused his back to lock up in the game against Serbia.

Marcelo is a key piece of Brazil’s tactical setup, having the freedom to join in attacking sequences to provide a numerical advantage on the left flank, becoming a true nightmare for opposing coaches and defenses. But if Marcelo is indeed limited physically, his contribution will be minimized and he may even become a liability defensively, especially when dealing with the pacy and crafty Miguel Layun and Andres Guardado, both of whom are very good at exploiting any space left by opposing defenses, especially on the side where Marcelo operates.

Paulinho vs. the Mexican central midfielders

Capping off a very good season for Barcelona, Paulinho has enjoyed a fantastic start to Brazil’s World Cup campaign, providing a steady presence and great work rate in the Brazilian midfield and scoring the game-winning goal in their last game against Serbia after a smart run behind the Serbian defense.

If there is any potential weakness in the Mexican tactical set up it would be smack in the center of the midfield, as Andres Guardado prefers drifting wide and also looks to be hampered by a lingering injury, which would leave Hector Herrera to do all the heavy lifting in terms of cutting out passing lanes and picking up incoming runs from the opposition.

Paulinho, on the other hand, can create matchup nightmares even against steadier and steelier central midfielders than the Mexican pair who have anchored Osorio’s 4-2-3-1 formation. If Mexico are to be successful on Monday, they’ll need a very disciplined, mistake-free performance from both Guardado and Herrera.

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Hirving Lozano vs. the Brazil defense

On paper, Mexico’s advantages over Brazil are few and far between, but if we were to point to a matchup problem for Brazil it would be Hirving “Chucky” Lozano. The PSV winger has been a menace of opposing defenses, scoring the lone goal against Germany and putting defenders on their back heels with his speed and one-on-one abilities.

Lozano likes to operate wide, mostly on the left flank, where he will be matched up against Fagner, the only Brazilian player not playing in one of Europe’s top leagues. In a game where every slight edge may be the difference between agony and ecstasy, this could be one matchup that El Tri look to fully exploit.

Juan Carlos Osorio vs. Tite

Finally, the coaching chess match. Brazil have lined up in a 4-3-3 while Mexico use a 4-2-3-1. Brazil’s strength is down “the spine” as Casemiro, Paulinho and Philippe Coutinho usually operate right down the middle of the field and provide service to Gabriel Jesus and Neymar.

On the other hand, Mexico’s strength is out wide on the flanks, where Lozano, Layun, Lozano and even Chicharito Hernandez like to find their space and try to run at opposing defenses with pace. The way the two managers will approach the game in order to exploit their respective strengths will be fascinating.

The key to the game may be the extent to which each of the managers fine tunes their tactical setup in order to account for the opponents’ main threats while not compromising their own team’s strengths.