DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, June 30
Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We’re going to be focused on the main slate which is seven games this evening.
Yesterday was the perfect example of paralysis by analysis. Since there were so many offenses in good spots on paper, I strayed from my Sample Lineup and played something different. In the process, I left Miguel Andujar and Rhys Hoskins on the sideline. It was quite tilting to see they both homered while not in my main lineup but there were some solid picks through the slate yesterday so hopefully someone out there put the pieces together. Let’s go to work!
DFS MLB – Rockies at Dodgers
Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP
5.53 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .303 average, .374 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .247 average, .334 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate
I really thought the Rockies and the Dodgers was a premier game stacking option last night and that didn’t work out on any level. The Dodgers get another plum matchup with Marquez tonight and they could easily troll some people who got a lot of nothing last night. The righty for Colorado really scuffles with lefty hitters and that would point us towards Joc Pederson and Max Muncy. Pederson is very cheap and will likely be among the highest owned players in cash games. Muncy has seen his price climb even further but it’s hard to argue it given his production so far this year. I’ve been missing the Dodgers the past coupe of nights and I wouldn’t go overboard in this side of the game. Just a couple hitters should really work out fine.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger,
Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP
3.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 27.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .283 average, .343 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .186 average, .252 wOBA, 32.1 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate
This might quietly be a pretty solid spot for Maeda. Once you get the Rockies away from Coors Field, they can’t hit righties well at all. They rank no higher than 21st in baseball in OPS, average, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. It’s weird to think of the Rockies as having a bad offense but here we are. I’m not sure I’d actually play Maeda but he’s not the worst option . There’s an ace on the bump tonight but Maeda is in play with his $3,100 savings from the other player.
There’s really only two Rockies that I’ll really make an argument for and the first is Charlie Blackmon. I mentioned a couple of days ago that he was extremely cheap relatively speaking at $3,800 and that’s where he is again. Blackmon has been slumping but it’s just like Bryce Harper last night – eventually, a big game is coming. Given the struggles Maeda has against lefty hitters, maybe it comes tonight. The leader in wOBA against righties who’s active is Gerardo Parra and he’s just $2,700 if you can’t spend for Blackmon. Nolan Arenado has been scoring the ball lately but I’m not sure this is the best spot to pay up for him.
Rockies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon
Secondary Options – Gerrardo Parra, Nolan Arenado
Home Run Pick – Charlie Blackmon
DFS MLB – Red Sox at Yankees
Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP
2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 35.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .191 average, .230 wOBA, 37.7 K rate, 22.9 fly ball rate and 24.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .184 average, .255 wOBA, 35.2 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard hit rate
Since there are limited options on a seven game slate, I might take a longer look at the Yankees hitters than I normally would against Sale. The New York lineup is built to smack lefty pitching around but Sale can also dominate any lineup without much question. Sale is bound to be popular since he is clearly the biggest name on the slate so I think there’s a lot of merit to a Yankees stack in tournaments. If you’re not paying up for Sale, it’s not terribly difficult to fit some of the Yankees hitters tonight. I would side with Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks. Maybe all four of them wouldn’t be the best idea but a they all should be pretty low-owned. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if Sale goes seven innings and strikes out 12 hitters.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge
Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP
4.93 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .245 average, .306 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 23.6 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .274 average, .354 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate
I wouldn’t start Sonny Gary at home with a good matchup given his splits. Gray owns a 7.22 ERA at home, compared to 3.28 away and the average balloons to .304 and matches his .400 wOBA. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are once again front and center tonight and are their normal expensive price. I’m not sure how feasible it will be to play Sale and Betts or Martinez on the same team but it is tempting. Since Gray is so bad at Yankee Stadium, you really don’t have to be all that picky if you want Red Sox exposure. Jackie Bradley Jr. is the cheapest way to get a piece of the Boston offense tonight. The only player that isn’t all that interesting is whoever catches for the Red Sox offense.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
Secondary Options – Any other hitter that fits into the budget, Mitch Moreland has the highest wOBA and ISO behind Betts and Martinez
Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi
DFS MLB – Braves at Cardinals
Braves Probable Starter – Max Fried, LHP
*Career Stats of 37.0 IP* 3.89 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .229 average, .339 wOBA, 35.1 K rate, 17.9 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .289 average, .369 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate
There’s not a very big track record for Fried to fall back on but the one thing he’s shown so far is that righties are the way we want to go tonight. There’s a risky buy-low option tonight with outfielder Tommy Pham. Yes, he doesn’t have a hit since the 19th. That just means he’s way past due and his price is all the way down at $3,100. It’s not going to get much lower than that and Jedd Gyorko is sort of in the same boat. Gyorko hasn’t seen double-digit points since the 11th but continues to rate well against lefties with a ,453 wOBA and a .324 ISO. Jose Martinez is the most expensive of this bunch but carries the highest upside from any Cardinals hitters. Fried should have a bit of a rough time tonight and some cheaper Cardinals could open up some options.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Martinez
Secondary Options – Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader
Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP
4.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .284 average, .357 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .228 average, .285 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 34.7 had hit rate
Weaver himself is basically unplayable right now with the amount of times he hasn’t made it through six innings. He has just four quality starts in 16 appearances and it’s hard to imagine him striking out enough hitters in those few innings to make it worthwhile to start. In addition, anytime there’s a pitcher that has poor splits against lefty hitters against the Braves, that’s about it for me. Weaver grades as a poor investment tonight even if he does let you fit a lot bats into your lineup. I’m still not ready to put Ronald Acuna into any lineup but the lefty hitters of Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are all very solid options. Ozzie Albies is a good option and he’s been hot the past few games. $4,600 just seems fairly high.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
Secondary Options – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies
Home Run Pick – Jose Martinez
DFS MLB – White Sox at Rangers
White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP
3.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .238 average, .284 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .208 average, .293 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 56.9 fly ball rate and 25.9 hard hit rate
It would one of the more dangerous plays of the night but you can take a stab at Rodon. He’s been really good considering he’s coming off a major injury and the offenses he’s faced since coming back. Rodon has looked good against the Indians(twice), Red Sox and A’s. The Rangers are a top 10 team in strikeouts but the risk comes from they also rank between 16th and 10th in almost all other major offensive categories. This game being in Arlington isn’t exactly helpful either but maybe the Rangers are tired after scoring 11 runs last night. One interesting punt if he’s in the lineup is Ryan Rua and his .331 wOBA and .243 ISO against lefties in about 40 at-bats. He’s minimum price so that goes a long way towards using him tonight.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jurickson Profar, Adrain Beltre
Secondary Options – Ryan Rua, any lefty hitter
Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP
4.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 14.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .268 average, .331 wOBA, 14.1 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .256 average, .334 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 44.5 hard hit rate
There might not have been a more disappointing team last night than the White Sox. Everyone(including me) thought they would smack around Yovani Gallardo and they did nothing of the sort. It’s going to test how you want to play tonight because they’re in another amazing spot against Big Sexy Bartolo Colon. Logic would dictate that the Sox would hit Colon around but it’s interesting to note that the grizzled veteran pitcher has had a good start the last two times out. I’m not sure that I can do a full Sox stack because Colon does pop up with random good games. It’s very difficult to trust them in this spot tonight. If I play any White Sox hitters, I’m just sticking with the best ones of Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu and hope for the best. If you want to go with the full stack, include Daniel Palka. This is a very high upside, high risk offense tonight.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Yona Moncada, Jose Abreu
Secondary Options – Daniel Palka, Matt Davidson, Tim Anderson
Home Run Pick –
DFS MLB – Pirates at Padres
Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP
4.03 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .260 average, .321 wOBA, 11.2 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .206 average, .281 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate
I wish I felt totally comfortable using Williams tonight. Seeing the massive discount you get from him to Chris Sale, it’s something I want to consider as an option. The righty for the Bucs typically isn’t someone we can trust and the ceiling is a little lower than we like when we fish for cheap pitchers. However, the matchup is enticing. The Padres are one of the worst offenses in baseball against righty pitching and they carry a huge strikeout rate of 26 percent of the time. I might not pitch Williams but I want no Padres hitters on such a small slate. There are so many better players to choose from.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski
Padres Probable Starter – Joey Lucchesi, LHP
3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 25.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .222 average, .244 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 9.7 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate
VS RHH -.240 average, .342 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard hit rate
Not just because he hit a home run last night but Jordy Mercer might well be a very popular player tonight. Players will want to jam Sale into that lineup. For just about minimum salary, Mercer and his .313 wOBA will do nicely. Another super cheap option is our buddy Elias Diaz at just $2,500. He crushes lefties and you don’t need gobs of points to feel good about playing him. I’m likely not going to invest much more than that considering the Pirates are hit and mis and they are in a very poor hitter’s park tonight. If you wanted a cheap Bucco stack, add in Josh Harrison and Starling Marte. This game doesn’t;t hold a low of appeal outside cheap hitters and a chance on a Pirates pitcher.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Elias Diaz, Jordy Mercer
Secondary Options – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Josh Bell
Home Run Pick –
DFS MLB – Giants at Diamondbacks
Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP
3.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate
vs LHH – .250 average, .320 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 42.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .282 average, .332 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate
You have to have some interest in the D-Backs lefties tonight and their leadoff man has seen his price drop down to playable levels. Jon Jay was so hot the past few weeks that his salary shot up a considerable amount to almost $4,000. He’s back down to $2,900 and that feels so much better to try to play him this evening. David Peralta is the most expensive option on that side of the plot but it just might be worth it as he’s been destroying right-handed pitching with a .385 wOBA and a .250 ISO. I would like to have some exposure to the Diamondbacks offense tonight. It’ll just be a matter of if I chose to pay up for some of the more expensive players. I’m not sure yet where they fall on the priority list.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – David Peralta, Jon Jay
Secondary Options – Ketel Marte, Paul Goldschmidt
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Shelby Miller, RHP
Second start, 3.2 IP and 12.17 ERA, 2.18 WHIP and 26.3 strikeout rate
I’m not even going to sweat the splits here because Miller is just back from a serious injury. This will only be his second start and we can’t touch him until he starts to show he’s pitching a lot better. The big question is where do we go with Giants hitters, if anywhere. Miller has always been worse against lefty hitters although for the time being it might just be open season on him. A very reasonably priced stack could wind up being Brandon Belt, Alen Hanson and Brandon Crawford. All three of these players are lefty, have a wOBA and ISO over .365 and .150(especially Belt and Hanson) and are all $3,600 or cheaper over on FanDuel. If Miller is still figuring things out, theses guys could be in for a field day. It doesn’t hurt they’re not in San Francisco, which just crushes offense. Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey would be fine options as well tonight.
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Alen Hanson
Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey
Home Run Pick – Brandon Belt
DFS MLB – Royals at Mariners
Royals Probable Starter – Jason Hammel, RHP
5.34 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 14.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .247 average, .319 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 46.2 fly ball rate and 49.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .319 average, .359 wOBA, 13.6 K rate, 32.6 fly ball rate and 44.5 hard hit rate
It wouldn’t be the cheapest option on the night but the late night hammer of Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz could pay big dividends since Hammel gets smashed by righty hitters. They should be two-three-four hitters and they all rate well against righty pitching. Segura is a player that can help set the table for the big bats and he can steal a base. They will almost surely be less popular than other names on this slate but they might be among the best plays. If you’re looking at fading Sale in a GPP, this could be the route to go. If you’re looking more towards a one-off, my pick is Haniger who is the cheapest of the three and has similar power upside to Cruz. Hammel got totally blasted his last start and the Mariners offense is better than it gets credit for. This is a bombs away spot for Seattle.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura
Secondary Options – Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy, Denard Span, Kyle Seager
Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP
5.10. ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .226 average, .334 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 39.5 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .271 average, .332 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate
There is a fine argument to be made that King Felix is learning how to pitch with his diminished arsenal and he’s been impressive against good offenses in his last couple starts. I’m not buying into the resurgence yet but this is also the Royals offense he’ll be facing. I think he falls in between that 30-35 point range which is fine, if unspectacular. You need to nail your hitters to take this gamble. Hernandez has been living on his curveball and change-up and the only hitter that ranks well against both those pitchers via FanGraphs is Mike Moustakas. He’s a good one-off at his price tag but other than that, I want to steer away from this side. I haven’t figured out if there’s been a fundamental shift with Hernandez. Until we figure that out, I’m not stacking against him very often.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Moustakas
Secondary Options – Whit Merrfield, Alex Gordon
Home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas
DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup
P – Chris Sale
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C/1B – Elias Diaz
2B – Alen Hanson
3B – Mike Moustakas
SS – Jordy Mercer
OF – Tommy Pham, Jon Jay, Joc Pederson
Utility – Brandon Belt
In all honesty, pitching Sale on this slate is a monster decision. You feel comfortable with him even in Yankee Stadium because he is a bad, bad dude. However, that leaves you with just $2,875 to build your offense. That’s less than ideal, especially if you remember how yesterday went. There’s really no guarantees when you get to this low-end hitters. Maybe they homer but maybe they give you three points. It can be a little hard to tell. This is the type of slate where it’s important to pay attention through the day and make an educated guess about how popular Sale is going to be and how willing you are to go a different route in cash.
Having sai that, it can be done. The two main pieces of this lineup past Sale are Belt, Pham and Moustakas. We have a bunch of complimentary pieces that should be able to come through just enough.
The Core – Joc Pederson, Elias Diaz, Chris Sale
Stacks to Consider – New York Yankees/ Boston Red Sox game stack, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.