Brazil rounding into form nicely ahead of Mexico clash
By Ty Finch
The World Cup favorites Brazil take on the World Cup darlings Mexico in the round of 16. Here’s what to expect from the match.
Brazil take on Mexico in the round of 16 on Monday in Samara. This was a predictable matchup based on the groups, but how they got there was anything but. Mexico were riding high from their opening two wins in Group F, but were shell shocked by Sweden in a 3-0 loss in the last game that almost knocked them out of the World Cup entirely. It took a Herculean effort from South Korea against Germany to ensure their place in the round of 16, something Mexican fans won’t forget anytime soon.
Brazil’s tournament has, more or less, gone the way most people thought it would. In a World Cup where Germany failed to make it out of the group stage for the first time in history, own goals have been record-setting and Senegal were knocked out due to yellow card accumulation, Brazil have been one of the few constants. The selecao started off a bit rusty with a draw to Switzerland and a close call against Costa Rica, but they’ve grown into the tournament and started playing their best soccer late in the group stage.
In a tournament that has been so unpredictable it seems futile to try and anticipate an eventual winner, so, instead, here is a preview of how the two teams will play.
How will Brazil play?
Considering Tite has only made one substitution in his lineup in the three group stage games, it would be shocking to see him move away from his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation and starting XI. The one question regarding Brazil’s lineup is the right back position. Danilo started the opening match against Switzerland but was replaced with Fagner in the last two. Considering the results against Costa Rica and Serbia, Tite will likely keep the 29-year-old in the same spot.
The rest of the 11 is almost a guarantee. Thiago Silva and Miranda will deputize the center of the defense while Marcelo basically plays as a second winger on the left. Casemiro and Paulinho line up in front of the defense in the double pivot, with Casemiro providing more of the defensive duties and Paulinho doing his patented late runs into the box when Brazil is on the front foot.
Unless Tite has a specific game plan in mind against Mexico, the attacking options will also remain the same. Philippe Coutinho, who has been Brazil’s best player in the group stage, occupies the number 10 role with Willian and Neymar on the flanks.
Gabriel Jesus started all three group stage matches and will likely do the same against Mexico, but Roberto Firmino offers a different skill set and could change the way Brazil attack. It would be an intriguing swap that means Tite sees something in the Mexican defense that could be exploited.
Considering Mexico are likely to sit back and hit on the counter, it could prove beneficial to have Firmino as the number 9. The Liverpool striker offers more hold-up play and combination passing than his counterpart. Given the nature of Mexico’s defense, a forward who enjoys playing the killer pass as much as scoring goals could be the better choice.
How will Mexico play?
The short answer: who knows?
Juan Carlos Osorio used the same starting lineup two games in a row, for the first time in 51 matches, against South Korea and Sweden, and the latter match ended 3-0 . That probably doesn’t sit well with him.
Hector Moreno and Carlos Salcedo are the most likely center-backs in Mexico’s back line with Jesus Gallardo and Edson Alvarez outside, but against an attack-minded Brazil, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Osorio play with a back five instead. It wouldn’t be the first time Mexico have lined up that way, and would give them more width to attack Brazil’s full-backs.
Hector Herrera and Andres Guardado have started all three matches in the World Cup in the midfield, and are two of the few locks to start again, in the same positions, against Brazil. Miguel Layun, Carlos Vela, Javier Hernandez and Hirving Lozano are the likely attacking starters, but the way they set up will tell the story.
Considering their success against a similar opposition in Germany, Osorio could be thinking about trying similar tactics against Brazil. Mexico exploited an attack-minded right back in Joshua Kimmich to great effect and could attempt to do the same against Marcelo, who loves to get forward and act as a second number 10 at times. That means more of Miguel Layun or Carlos Vela attacking the left side of Brazil’s defense, and would necessitate a more concerted effort defensively from Neymar.
Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup
Who will advance?
Mexico has already played the giant killer once this tournament, so they obviously have that in them. Their speed on the break and specific game by game tactics from Osorio is unmatched from by the other 15 teams.
But this is Brazil. They’ve given up one goal in three matches, off a set-piece (that could’ve been called back for a foul), and are steadily growing into the tournament. They are favorites for a reason. Don’t expect fireworks like the ones France and Argentina created on Saturday, however. Both of these teams are compact defensively and Mexico won’t take many risks going forward. Brazil will likely go through in a low scoring affair.