DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, July 1

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a decent sized eight game slate on our hands this afternoon.

I’m starting to drive myself insane by second-guessing my sample lineup somedays. The amount of times I tweak something to see someone I left out homer is frankly getting frustrating. That’s the challenge of daily fantasy is to get this pieces together so I hope some of you folks out there are making it happen. The lineup I ended up playing was on the cusp for most of my contests but we’re not shooting for on the cusp. It’s time to see some DFS MLB green, starting today. Let’s dig into this eight game slate!

DFS MLB – Angels at Orioles

Angels Probable Starter – Deck McGuire, RHP 

*Career stats, 27 IP* 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 13.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .154 average, .206 wOBA, 7.3 K rate, 46.7 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .273 average, .409 wOBA, 11.5 K rate, 55.8 fly ball rate and 53.5 hard hit rate

It might be the very first game we’re discussing but one of the best moves of the day might be to stack the deck against Deck McGuire. If you haven’t exited the page after that terrible joke, the Orioles actually do have some serious appeal in this spot. It’s only been 27 innings in the big leagues for the Angels starter but he’s gotten whacked by righty hitters. He gives up 3.46 HR/9 to righties and that’s an awful trait to have in Camden Yards against the Orioles. If the Baltimore offense was any better, I’d really consider a full stack but for the most part, I’d limit my exposure here just a little bit. The best one-offs are Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones. My favorite when we weigh salary might just be Trumbo but you can’t go wrong with Machado either. I don’t have a big issue with a Baltimore stack but I just dislike stacking poor offense, even though it is a juicy spot.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Options – Adam Jones, hitters near the top of the order

Orioles Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP 

4.20 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .314 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .301 average, .368 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Just like McGuire, the Angels aren’t a team that you want to be reverse splits on. The first thing that stuck out a little bit is Mike Trout and his BvP data against Gausman. I know, that’s not normally where we go. However, Trout has seven hits in 13 at-bats and three of those hits were home runs. His exit velocity tells a tale because of the seven hits, five batted balls are over 85 MPH off the bat. That means more to me than 7-13 and Trout appears to be a very elite play if we can fit him. Guasman has been roughed up by the current Angels hitters over the course of 100 at-bats and I would only consider him as a deep GPP target if Caleb Joseph catches. Gausman is much better when he does.

Angels Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler

Secondary Options – Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Luis Valbuena

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Tigers at Blue Jays

Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 

4.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .278 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .323 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

I flat refuse to believe that Zimmermann is any good at this point in his career and I feel like there’s at least one close to lock player on the Blue Jays today. Randall Grichuk and his .335 ISO against righties has been inserted into the lead off spot and continued the disturbing trend of hitting a home run the day AFTER I roster him on Saturday. Still, FanDuel has not raised his price and at $2,500 it’s just too hard to pass up in cash games. Zimmermann is giving up too many fly balls to not want to chase with a player like Teoscar Hernandez as well. Even though I fully believe that Zimmermann is worse than some of his metrics appear, I’d probably leave lefty hitters on the sidelines in cash games but a Blue Jays stack in GPP’s is perfectly reasonable for today’s slate.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Randall Grichuk, Teoscar Hernadez

Secondary Options – Justin Smoak, Kendra Morales, Yangervis Solarte

Blue Jays Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP 

3.62 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 27.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .162 average, .184 wOBA, 30.3 K rate, 22.0 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .296 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

I’ve pounded the drum all season that the Tigers are really good against lefty pitchers and they are. However, Happ is a very good lefty at home and I’m not sure this is the place to target against him. I’d be surprised if Happ got totally blitzed so a stack for me is out. Trying to find a one-off play is a bit trickier than I would like. Could it be Jeimer Caelario with his ISO and wOBA over .270 and .390? Yes, it could. It could also be Nicholas Castellanos who carries a team-leading .464 wOBA or it could be John Hicks or James McCann, who both rate well against south paws as well. I’d probably stick with the cheaper hitters in this spot in case Happ shows up big.

Tigers Hitter to Target 

Elite Options – John Hicks, Jeimer Candelario

Secondary Options – James McCann, Nicholas Castellanos

Home Run Pick – Teoscar Hernandez

DFS MLB – Mets at Marlins

Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP 

3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .290 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 14.3 fly ball rate and 9.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .332 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

Matz is having a pretty solid year right now and he might be one of the better pitching plays on this slate. Not only does he see a park upgrade, the Marlins are quite stinky against lefty pitching. They rank 26th in average, 29th in OPS, last in ISO, 29th in wOBA and tied for last in wRC+. They are actually pretty low in strikeouts but it’s still over 21 percent of the time. We typically target lefty pitchers when they draw the Mets for all of these same reasons and Matz will cost you just $6,900 on FanDuel. As good as he looks against lefty hitters, he does have some regression due with his 99.1 left on base %. I just don’t know if that comes today. The best one-off of the bunch here would be Brian Anderson who owns a .362 wOBA against lefty pitching and is under $3,000. By the numbers, this is a really good spot for Matz and not the Miami offense.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brian Anderson

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .370 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 48.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .321 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 43.5 fly ball rate and 49.3 hard hit rate

I can already tell I’m going to be tempted by Brandon Nimmo again today. He’s very affordable and even though his strikeout rate has spiked to over 30 percent the past two weeks, he’s still hitting over .300 with a .418 wOBA and a .250 ISO. If those numbers interest you, Jose Bautista has to be on your radar as well. He’s actually got a higher wOBA, higher ISO, lower strikeout rate and a much higher walk rate. Additionally, he’s cheaper than Nimmo or lefty hitter Michael Conforto. The grizzled veteran has been getting on base over 50 percent of the time the past 14 days and Straily is giving up a huge amount of fly balls and hard hits so far this season. Even though the Mets offense is very mediocre to poor, I’m not going to jam Straily into my lineups. There’s enough mid-range and cheaper options it doesn’t feel like it should be a priority.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Jose Bautista

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Asrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores

Home Run Pick – Jose Bautista

DFS MLB – Brewers at Reds

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 41.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .146 average, .233 wOBA, 40.4 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 22.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .029 average, .090 wOBA, 43.2 K rate, 64.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

You have to be at least a little interested in Peralta today. He’s made four starts in the majors so far and three of them have been dominant with scores of 62, 49 and 61 when things have gone well. When they haven’t he’s bottomed out at 15 points. It doesn’t take a baseball genius to figure out that Peralta isn’t this good but it’s hard to predict exactly how fast it comes. The Reds have a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, which is a tick in their column today.

Peralta has been worse against lefties so that’s where I would really focus on. Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker all bat lefty so that could present Peralta with a challenge. This game is a GPP special. Peralta doesn’t have a track record to fall back on but his price is perfectly fine. The Reds might actually come in a little low-owned of people are just looking at the box score of this day. You just can’t trust Peralta yet and which way this will head today.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options -Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Eugenio Suarez

Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP 

5.28 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 16.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .371 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 43.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .309 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

I’ll take the top four in the Milwaukee order today, please and thank you. No, I’m not buying the resurgence of Matt Harvey at this point. He’s logged a quality start the past two times on the bump but I don’t believe that’s going to last. Chalk it up to variance in baseball that Harvey had  couple good starts in a row. It’s fair to point out that both starts came against good offense in Atlanta and the Cubs but this matchup does profile very poorly for Harvey. I don’t think the Reds have magically cured him and I want to pull a three man Brewers stack of Eric Thames, Brad Miller and Travis Shaw in at least one lineup. Thames is very expensive at $4,200 but I don’t think we’ll have to pay up for pitching today. We’ll have some money to play with. Shaw and Thames have ISO’s over .290 this year against righties and Harvey will be hard pressed to repeat his success.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Thames, Brad Miller, Travis Shaw

Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich(if active), Jonathan Villar

Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw

DFS MLB – Astros at Rays

Astors Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP 

2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 31.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .282 wOBA, 39.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .210 average, .279 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 24.2 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

This game really could be dominated by pitching. Morton has been on fire lately and in his last three starts he’s logged 19 innings, struck out 26 hitters and given up a total of three earned runs. Tampa is average to poor against righties basically across the board and even tough they got to Justin Verlander yesterday, I’m not going to bet on them doing it again today. Jake Bauers is the only member of the Rays that has an ISO over .200 so it would seem like the upside is  a little lower in this spot. Wilson Ramos continues to be cheap and I think him and Bauers would be the only ones I would consider.

Rays Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers, Wilson Ramos

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.31 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 28.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .119 average, .171 wOBA, 32.2 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .199 average, .287 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 41.1 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

I don’t make it a habit of targeting against Snell and today will not be any different. Snell himself is in play as a tournament target because he’s been really good so far this year. He just pitched in Houston against these Astros two starts ago and racked up 46 FanDuel points so we know the success is there for him to attain. There’s really only two hitters that I’d think about here, on opposite ends of the price spectrum. The expensive player is Alex Bregman who has to be getting tired of being awesome at this point. He’s been destroying everything in sight these past two weeks with a .499 wOBA and a .463 ISO to go with a .410 on base percentage. The cheap option is Max Stassi, who has the second best wOBA on the team among semi-regular players and is third in ISO against lefty pitching. He’s $2,300 so he wouldn’t crush you if he does little against Snell. I’m inclined to play a pitcher from this game or pass on it altogether.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman

Secondary Options – Max Stassi, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Home Run Pick – Wilson Ramos

DFS MLB – Nationals at Phillies

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .248 wOBA, 31.4 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .335 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rte and 32.4 hard hit rate

The wheels have completely fallen off for Gonzalez these last four starts and he’s given up 17 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched. That’s pretty ugly and he’s not in play for me until we see some type of improvement. The number one play by a good bit has to be Rhys Hoskins who has been totally mashing since he came back from a broken jaw. The metrics aren’t really a concern for me in this spot because Gonzalez has been so bad lately. If he gives up a bomb today, there’s a pretty high chance that it comes off the bat of Hoskins. I’d skip out on lefty hitter Odubel Herrera but he does hit lefty pitching well enough he’s a solid tournament play just because it’s a lefty on lefty matchup. Gonzalez has been so poor lately that I’d think about taking shots on Aaron Altherr and Maikel Franco if you need a cheap play. Both Carlos Santana and Cesar Hernandez have wOBA’s over .330 and are solid mid-range plays.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Sanata, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 16.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .323 wOBA, 5.4 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .295 wOBA, 11.8 K rate, 25.5 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

We appear to be witnessing the decline of Arrieta in rapid fashion. He can’t miss any bats and he’s got no margin for error when it comes to getting outs. He’s in a very scary spot today with the amount of left-handed hitters in the Nationals lineup because he can’t strike lefties out. If they’re getting the bat on the ball, it has the tendency to not end well for Arrieta. If we go towards the mid-range for pitcher today, Juan Soto seems awfully appealing. The young man is making the big leagues look easy and he could form a nice 1-2 punch with Adam Eaton who is just $3,200 on FanDuel. Bryce Harper just had a massive night on Friday and could be in line for another big game but he carries way more risk than we’ve normally seen these past few years. There’s no way I’m playing Arrieta today in any format. Components of the Washington offense have been running hot lately.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Braves at Cardinals

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP 

2.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 28.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .184 average, .291 wOBA, 28.1 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .196 average, .239 wOBA, 28.8 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

For my cash games today, the decision on starting pitcher I think is going to come down to Steven Matz or Foltynewicz. He didn’t look incredible in his last start but I’m inclined to give him a pass considering he just came off the DL. One of the biggest factors heading into this matchup is the complete loss of Tommy Pham for the Cardinals offense. He’s still playing, but he has been mired in a slump something fierce lately. With him hitting poorly, the Cardinals offense takes a giant step backwards. Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals are middle of the pack in runs but they are top six in strikeouts. The only hitter that is going well for the Cards in that time span is Matt Carpenter but I’m not paying up for him in this matchup. The downside for Folty is he does’t get past the sixth inning a lot so he walks a tight rope. It’s still an overall positive spot for him.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.48 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .195 average, .250 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 58.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.177 average, .245 wOBA, 10.2 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

Gant has been serviceable so far in his starts this season but I would still side with the Braves hitters in this game. They went bonkers last night and they have to be enjoying the fact that Ronald Acuna is back in the fold and hitting home runs. The one player I’m likely not paying up for is Freddie Freeman who has been striking out 33.3 percent of the time the past two weeks and hitting under .200. Most of the other regular hitters are hitting over .260 during that time span and they could finally make Gant look like a no-name pitcher that we all would assume him to be. I would stack up Braves other than Freeman or lean towards Acuna because he’s actually the cheapest of the biggest names from the Braves.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, Ronald Acuna

Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – Twins at Cubs

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.81 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .285 average, .366 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 18.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .318 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

I’m not sure how many folks realize how wild the game in Wrigley was yesterday, with a total of 23 runs between the Cubbies and Twins. There also had multiple players leave with heat-related issues, so keep that in mind when rostering players today and check the weather. Lynn throws his fastball 77.9 percent of the time and the two best active players against the pitch are Javier Baez and Jason Heyward. Baez is extremely expensive but Heyward is super affordable for one of your outfield spots. Both of these hitters are on fire right now and I would likely lean towards playing the hitter that is $1,400 cheaper today unless I’m playing a Cubs stack. We’ll see how the lineup shakes out but there are plenty of interesting hitters on this side of the game. Just don’t expect double digit runs again today.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javier Baez, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP

2.18 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .224 average, .301 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .201 average, .271 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 38.0 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

My buddy Brian Tulloch have been screaming into the abyss about how Jon Lester should be getting touched up and the stats certainly lead us to that conclusion. While his metrics up top look really good, his 4.07 FIP, 4.50 SIERA and 4.45 xFIP all are screaming things are going to go south for Lester at some point this year. As sure as I am of everything I just said, I don’t know if it’s coming today. I want to see the Twins lineup but Eddie Rosario would be interesting but the heat related issues yesterday scare me at $4,000. The best two hitters against lefty pitching for the Twins are both very cheap in Joe Mauer and Max Kepler but I think this is an avoid spot today. Frankly, I don’t trust the Twins to get to Lester like he deserves and I’m not beating my head against this wall.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer, Max Kepler, Ehire Adrianza

Home Run Pick – Jason Heyward

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Steven Matz 

C/1B – Eric Thames

2B – Jonathan Villar

3B – Johan Carmago 

SS- Manny Machado

OF – Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Jose Bautista

Utility – Juan Soto 

This sample lineup is a little different than where I normally go. I’m generally one to spend up on pitching but I truly believe that Matz is in a great spot and is just too cheap. His lone poor game lately in the past month came in Coors Field and he’s faced the Yankees, Diamondbacks and the Cubs in that time. The Marlins aren’t nearly that good. From there, we roll out a mini-stack of Thames and Villar agains Matt Harvey who is due for a bad start, mostly because he’s a poor pitcher. Carmago is mostly a punt but he’s part of a good offense against a mediocre pitcher. The tag team of Trout and Machado is one of the other reasons why I like Matz so much today as those two should carry the offense. Bautista and Heyward fit nicely with some healthy upside and then we’ll take one of the best your guns in baseball with little strikeout downside in Soto.

The Core – Mike Trout, Jason Heyward(might be one of my favorite plays on the slate), Manny Machado

Stacks to Consider – Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves

Next: MLB DFS Bargain Bin Plays

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.