FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Sunday July 1

Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for Sunday, July 1st 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

With some less than attractive slates over the last couple of days, but also due to other commitments, we’ve had to take a few FanDuel MLB slates off this past week. However, we’ve been paying attention to the results of the week, and we’re back in the action for the heart of summer baseball, in July.

The day is more split up for a Sunday, than usual. We have eight games kicking off between 1pm EDT and 2:20pm EDT. Those games create the ‘Main’ slate for FanDuel MLB today. There’s also a ‘Late’ slate, which includes all games starting around the 4pm EDT mark. The only way you can build the evening game between the Yankees and Red Sox into your lineup, is by playing the All Day slate.

The purpose of this post is to focus on the Main slate. There are 16 teams and 16 starting pitchers to consider, so this slate comprises the most robust part of the day for FanDuel MLB. Also, the Main slate has some of the most exciting pitching picks, and could have the most runs per game for great offensive stacking.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: Good golly it’s hot today! Fortunately, it doesn’t look like the heat dome across much of the united states will bubble up any early or afternoon thunderstorms. Also, we have several games played in a dome today. So, green light to play all teams. Also, expect the ball to fly in several locations, with heat and wind impacting games like the A’s, Indians, Cubs, Twins, Braves, and Cardinals.

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

Some days I spend most of my time looking at the metrics of each pitcher, and trying to dig into who the best play would be. Other days, like today, the top pick jumps out at me immediately, and I spend the rest of my time trying to prove that pick was wrong. Often, I eventually change my mind. Today, I can’t move from Freddy Peralta ($8,500).

For starters, I was surprised Peralta was only the sixth most expensive starting pitcher. First of all, as our friend Brian Tulloch keeps harping on, Jon Lester ($9,000) is due for some bad games. If you look at his metrics and watch his games, he’s simply getting lucky. Today, Lester has a tough Twins lineup with the wind blow hard out toward the fence. Jon is a hard fade for me.

Mike Foltynewicz ($8,600) is probably one of the more attractive pivot options from Peralta today, but Folty has a similar weather situation to Lester’s. Also, Mike has failed to pitch more than five innings in each of his last three straight starts.

Blake Snall ($9,100) is facing the Astros…pass. J.A. Happ ($9,400) is a good pitcher with a 27% K-rate, but Happ has had some disappointing outings this season, is giving up too many home runs, and is facing the Tigers. Yes, that’s actually a bad match up. Detroit has a 19% K-rate against LHP’s this season, that’s tied with the Braves for the lowest in baseball.

You could always pay up for Charlie Morton ($10,400) against the Rays. Morton has an awesome 31% K-rate. However, again, the match up isn’t ideal. Against RHP’s, the Rays have a ‘meh’ 22.9% K-rate, and are scoring efficiently, with a 96 wRC+. Also, the Rays have seen Charlie recently, and only fanned four times in six innings. That’s a lot of money to pay for someone who could only get you 30 to 40 FanDuel MLB points.

Many of the potential value plays look like better offensive stacking options to me. So, I’m back to Peralta. He only has four starts in the books this season, but Freddy has an insane 41.7% K-rate. Even when he struggled against the Twins, he still managed five strikeouts in four innings, for 15 points.

His remaining three results were incredible, managing 30 K’s in just 16.2 innings. And, in four starts, Peralta only gave up four runs in one game. I’ll admit, the Reds offense being hot lately gives me pause. But they also appear to be cooling off. Still, at this price, we have to grab Peralta for our lineup, especially with a 50 to 60 FanDuel MLB points ceiling.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

For offensive stacking, things lineup nicely for one game. The Orioles are hosting the Angels again in Baltimore. The current Over/Under for total runs scored in the game is ten, the highest of any game in this slate. In fact, the next highest is the Blue Jays and Tigers, but only 8.5. Not too surprisingly, this lined up perfect with our metrics targets.

When we looked at home runs per nine innings, we knew Deck McGuire (yes, that’s his real name) had only pitched in six games this season, and mostly in relief. But when you look at the results, it’s interesting.

Not only is McGuire’s ERA over 6.00, and whip nearly 1.5, but he’s giving up almost 3.5 home runs per nine innings. He’s only pitched in 16.1 innings, so we know he’s giving up more than four home runs, or at least one to two home runs per start, since mid-May.

That makes playing Mark Trumbo ($3,100), Adam Jones ($2,800), Danny Valencia ($2,700), and Manny Machado ($4,400) a perfect, and in this scenario affordable, offensive stack for this afternoon.

Even better, the O’s are trotting Kevin Gausman onto the mound to start the game today. We probably need to grab some value from the Halo’s lineup. Kevin has a 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and ERA at 4.2. So stacking a couple of cheap Angels bats with Albert Pujols ($3,100) and red-hot Mike Trout ($5,000) is an awesome option to have.

The Blue Jays, Tigers, Mets, and Marlins are two other games you could consider stacking for the FanDuel MLB Main slate. But we feel the best value and highest offensive point totals will come out of Baltimore this afternoon.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

We immediately loved Peralta for the Main FanDuel MLB slate today. In fact, we liked him so much, we knew we had to take a step back and consider all of the other pitching options. Fortunately, not only does Freddy seem like a great value, but he’s also likely the high point ceiling of the slate.

From there, we’re stacking the offenses in one of three games we like this afternoon. Our favorite is the game in Baltimore, where there are some reasonably priced, but also expensive, big bats. The Halos’ lineup was already out at the time of releasing this article. So play close attention to the O’s lineup once it hits.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Sunday, July 1st 2018:

FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup: 

P               Freddy Peralta ($8,500)

C/1B        Jose Briceno ($2,200)

2B             Ian Kinsler ($3,100)

3B             Danny Valencia ($2,700)

SS             Manny Machado ($4,400)

OF             Mike Trout ($5,000)

OF             Adam Jones ($2,800)

OF             Mark Trumbo ($3,100)

UTIL          Albert Pujols ($3,100)

Remaining Salary: $100

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Game by Game Breakdown

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, PGA, and World Cup this summer!