MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 1st All Slate

FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 1st All Slates

Welcome to a Sunday “Quick Hits” edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday’s slates.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 1st All Slates Quick Hits

On the pitching front, there’s not many true value arms I trust, but the Pirates Jameson Taillon has a few factors in his favor. The right-hander seems to have hit his stride in June (2.90 ERA, 29 strikeouts over five starts), a month in which he tallied three quality starts away from PNC Park against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Mets. Meanwhile, the projected Padres starting lineup sports a mediocre .296 wOBA, .117 ISO and 22.7 percent strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, while Taillon boasts a 22.8 percent strikeout rate over his aforementioned last five trips to the mound.

Angels starter Deck McGuire has allowed a .409 wOBA (including five homers), a 5.82 xFIP, 25.6 percent line drive rate and 53.5 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters during his short career, and he allows a .341 wOBA and .308 ISO when throwing his fastball. That puts the likes of Orioles value bats Trey Mancini (.441 wOBA against fastball over last two-plus seasons), Danny Valencia (.411 wOBA against fastball over last two-plus seasons), Mark Trumbo (.415 wOBA against fastball over last two-plus seasons) and Tim Beckham (.367 wOBA against fastball over last two-plus seasons) under consideration. Angels relievers have also allowed a .375 wOBA and 5.40 ERA over the last week while pitching the fourth-most innings (23.1) during that span.

Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann has been better this season than in 2017, but he still allows plenty of home runs and has a 6.00 ERA over 18 road innings. He’s also allowing a .384 wOBA when throwing his trademark fastball, which puts value bats Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Smoak in play for the Blue Jays. The Tigers bullpen has been particularly poor over the last week of play as well (7.50 ERA, .450 wOBA and eight homers allowed), and have yielded a .357 wOBA to right-handed hitters and .394 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month of play.

Matt Harvey has been much better recently than earlier in the season, so I’m not necessarily high on throwing out a bunch of Brewers hitters against him. However, he’s still vulnerable to left-handed hitters (.371 wOBA allowed overall), as is the Reds bullpen (5.87 ERA, .334 wOBA allowed to lefty bats over last month at home). Therefore, Eric Thames (if priced reasonably enough), Travis Shaw, the switch-hitting Jonathan Villar and Brad Miller are four Milwaukee players I’d consider in tournaments.

The Twins’ Lance Lynn has been bad overall on the road (6.64 ERA, .374 wOBA allowed) and particularly against lefty hitters (.403 wOBA) away from Target Field. The Cubs know Lynn well from his time in the National League and the Twins bullpen was just put through the ringer Saturday in a 14-9 loss. Besides Anthony Rizzo, who’ll be priced above value range, I’d consider Kyle Schwarber (where priced reasonably), Ian Happ, the switch-hitting Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward as good bargain bats to target.

DraftKings /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 1st All Slates Quick Hits

The White Sox’s

Reynaldo Lopez

has been especially hit hard by lefty bats on the road (.382 wOBA, 6.00 xFIP, 41.8 percent hard contact rate allowed), so

and

are all in play for the Rangers.

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On the other side of the matchup, southpaw Cole Hamels has struggled in the hitter-friendly environment of his home park all season, and he’s allowed a .386 wOBA (including 13 homers), a 26.5 percent HR/FB rate and a 47.2 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at Globe Life Park. Rangers relievers have also allowed five homers to right-handed hitters at home in the last month, so consider Matt Davidson, Jose Abreu, Kevan Smith, Tim Anderson and Avisail Garcia in particular. The switch-hitting Yoan Moncada and Yolmer Sanchez are also in play if priced reasonably, but be aware they’re both poorer against lefties than versus right-handers.

The Rockies’ Chad Bettis gave up five earned runs — including two homers — to the Dodgers the last time he faced them, and several bargain bats have successful track records against him. That includes Justin Turner (.429 average), Yasiel Puig (.429 average) and Matt Kemp (.300 average). Give them all consideration, and keep in mind the Rockies bullpen has been vulnerable overall in recent weeks to both handedness of hitter, whether on the road or at home.

The Padres’ Tyson Ross has been pitching well, so I’m not advocating too many Pirates bats. However, two discounted options — Corey Dickerson (.316 average, two homers) and Gregory Polanco (.444 average) — both have solid track records against him as indicated by those figures, so they’re worth considering for larger tournaments.

The Giants’ Derek Holland is always a pitcher I like to target with a few right-handed bats, considering he’s allowed a .361 wOBA to that handedness, along with all 12 homers he’s given up this season. He’s been much more vulnerable on the road, as well (.343 wOBA and nine homers allowed) and will be in a hitter-friendly environment. Consequently, bargain bats in play included Nick Ahmed (.368 wOBA, .250 ISO versus lefties), John Ryan Murphy (.385 wOBA and .305 ISO versus lefties) and the switch-hitting Ketel Marte (.369 wOBA, .221 ISO versus lefties).

And finally, some isolated BvP (Batter vs. Pitcher) discounted specials to consider as potential one-offs in tournaments: Ian Kinsler (.533 average in 15 at-bats against Kevin Gausman); Austin Romine (.467 average over 15 at-bats against David Price); Andrew McCutchen (check pricing) (.556 average over nine at-bats against Zack Godley); Buster Posey (.571 average over eight at-bats against Zack Godley).

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