DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, July 2

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nine game slate this evening so let’s get rolling.

There’s not much to say about yesterday’s DFS MLB slate other than the ultra chalky Cubs wound up kicking my butt. When the chalk hits and your super expensive player in Mike Trout throws a fat goose egg up there for you, that’s not going to wind up being a good day. It’s a really good lesson that when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley and the Cubs are reasonably priced, you better pay attention. It was also a solid reminder that even when an offense goes bonkers, you can still get player that puts up a zero. Looking at you, Jason Heyward. Let’s jump into Monday’s slate.

DFS MLB – Braves at Yankees

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

2.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .208 average, .320 wOBA, 29.8 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .263 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard hit rate

I wouldn’t advise using Sanchez for any reason in Yankee Stadium but he did leave his last start with cramps so we’ll need to double-check who’s pitching to figure out which Yankees we want for tonight. This slate is going to be tricky because there are so many aces and a Coors Field game to balance but the Yankees are in a solid spot here. Sanchez looks good by his metrics but I have a very hard time buying into this level of performance. Home and road splits aren’t always the most indicative but it’s hard to ignore Aaron Judge at home against righty pitching this season. He’s sporting a .393 average, 1.319 OPS, .430 ISO and a .535 wOBA. He’s basically Nolan Arenado at Coors against a lefty but won’t carry near the same ownership. Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres all own ISO’s over .200 against righties so fire away with any Yankee you like tonight.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options –Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks

Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP 

5.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 27.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .292 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.252 average, .338 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

The Yankees decided to skip German’s scheduled start last night against the Red Sox and that was likely a smart move for the youngster. However, he’s still got a major challenge on his hands tonight with a stacked top of the Braves order. I really want to play Ronald Acuna is his first game in Yankee Stadium but I’m not sure if he’ll make it into the lineup. His strikeouts are 29 percent against righty pitching while facing a strikeout style pitcher probably renders him a GPP play only. German has flashed serious upside but lacks the polish to be trusted against a good offense. I would stick with the best hitters like Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and maybe an Ender Inciarte or Nick Markakis. It would be expensive but a game stack here could provide plenty of fireworks.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Options – Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte

Home Run Pick – Aaron Judge

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Nationals

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP 

3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .301 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .277 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 25.1 hard hit rate

It may not look like it this season, but Porcello has always struggled with lefty hitters. That’s doubly true when they can hit for some power so this matchup could give Porcello a whole lot of issues. The top of the Nationals order boasts Adam Eaton, Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. Those are the only three Nationals in play for me and I’m really hoping Washington puts them 1-2-3 in the order in some format. It would be smart to attack the weakness for Porcello in this spot and if we get that lineup configuration, it could be one of the better stacking options on the night. I wouldn’t force any right-handed hitters in there tonight given how Porcello limits fly balls and hard contact.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – None

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 37.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .277 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 51.5 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .147 average, .196 wOBA, 37.0 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

I’m much more interested in this side of the game from a real life baseball perspective than I am for DFS. The Red Sox offense is going to present a major challenge to Scherzer at the top of the order but I think Scherzer is still going to have a normal game here. If he can contain Mookie Betts and J.D Martinez, Scherzer should be able to handle the rest of the lineup. The bottom of the Boston lineup isn’t great and they kind of just ride the coattails of the top end of the order. I don’t think I’m going to pay top dollar for Mad Max given the matchup but I’m really not going to pay for the Boston hitters either. If you’re tournament player, Betts and Martinez would be excellent GPP leverage plays.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez(GPP only)

Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts

DFS MLB – White Sox at Reds

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .194 average, .281 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

vs RHH – .257 average, .314 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

Players have attacked Shield relentlessly out of habit this year but Shields has controlled some of his issues this year. He’s managed to keep the ball in the yard this season to the tune of 0.99 HR/9  to lefties and 1.03 HR/9 to righties. He’s also only allowed more than three earned in a start once out of the last nine times he’s pitched. Now, this is still a very dangerous spot for him since he’s in a hitters park and the Reds have led baseball in runs the past 14 days. Even though I do acknowledge Shields might not be a total gas can and have advocated against targeting him heavily, this could be one of his poor starts. Since the lefties are bound to be very popular, Eugenio Suarez could be solid against the grain play here. He has the highest ISO and third highest wOBA on the team against righty pitching this season. It might be riskier than you think, but a Reds stack is totally fine here.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options – Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler

Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP 

5.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .282 average, .376 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 43.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .314 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

I’m going to spend another day being tempted by Yoan Moncada and his price point on FanDuel. His play has fallen off, his effort has come into question over the weekend and his strikeout rate is totally absurd against righties at almost 36 percent. Still, he’s putting the ball in the air and making hard contact over 43 percent of the time and that could really blow up in Cincinnati against a pitcher who has gotten worked by lefty hitters. Maybe he’ll be a tournament only play but I really want some shares of Moncada. Yolmer Sanchez is a solid salary saver at third base tonight with his .323 wOBA and his strikeout rate of under 16 percent. I just don’t trust the White Sox offense all that much right now and wouldn’t jam them into cash lineups. On a side note, can Eloy Jimenez get promoted soon please so I can play him? Thanks in advance, White Sox.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Yolmer Sanchez

Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Rays at Marlins

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

4.08 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .218 average, .290 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate ad 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .164 average, .256 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 28.3 hard hit rate

Despite all of the high-end pitchers on the slate, Eovaldi could actually be a feasible option to manage fitting in some heavy hitters. We’ll probably need some Coors exposure and we’ve highlighted some great spots for expensive bats already. The Marlins have a top 12 strikeout rate against righties and rank no higher than 16th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. If you take out batting average, that number drops to 24th. So even though they’re hitting for a mediocre average, it’s kind of empty. Pitch count isn’t a concern even though Eovaldi is coming off major surgery. He’s pitched at least six innings in his past three starts and hit 100 pitches in the last one. You can take a stab at a Derek Dietrich or Justin Bour one-off but I’m siding with Eovaldi here.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Bour

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yin Chen, LHP 

6.14 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .204 average, .250 wOBA, 32.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .307 average, .396 wOBA, 12.3 K rate, 47.0 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

These past four games haven’t been the most fun for the rays offense. They did touch up Justin Verlander but they had to face him, Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers and Max Scherzer all in a row. Somehow, they actually went 4-1 in those games and now their offense has a chance to do some work tonight against Chen. The lefty for the Marlins is coming off a troll start when he shut don a very popular Diamondbacks offense and I suppose that outcome is a possibility tonight. It’s not like the Rays offense is the best one around but a couple of cheap batters combined with Eovaldi could leave you a lot of money to play with tonight. Daniel Robertson is a fine punt option at shortstop with a .382 wOBA and a .230 ISO against lefties. My favorite would probably be Wilson Ramos, who is just a solid all around hitter and he carries some home run upside in the middle of that order.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilson Ramos

Secondary Options – Daniel Robertson, Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron

Home Run Pick – Justin Bour

DFS MLB – Twins at Brewers

Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP 

3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .236 average, .290 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .209 average, .294 wOBA, 23.2 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

Gibson might be a totally average pitcher through most metrics although his strikeout upside might be bumped up just a little tonight since he’s facing the Brewers. Even with a chance for an elevated strikeout total, I’m not that interested in Gibson at Miller Park tonight. He usually can avoid the big blow up start but it would seem his ceiling is about 30 points. That might not cut it on a slate like this. It might feel like a broken record but the lefties are the route to go from the Brew Crew this evening. Eric Thames might be popular but he’s been basically home run or bust. I’d be inclined to pay a couple hundred less for Jesus Aguilar at the same position. Travis Shaw is about due for a home run and I’m personally not using Christian Yelich. Back injuries are nothing to mess with, especially when a player is $3,800.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Brad Miller

Brewers Probable Starter – Brent Suter, LHP 

4.28 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .225 average, .312 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .310 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

The Twins are a little bit of a weird offense because they’ve been hitting well these past couple games but I’m not sure who I want to play from their offense tonight, if anyone. Robbie Grossman is a cheaper option that I don’t hate, especially if he’s leading off. Even though it’ll be a lefty on lefty matchup, both Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar could be options to chase. I’d be lying if I said that this was an offense I was really going after tonight. Suter is pitching relatively well right now and this game is a spot that I’ll likely pass on unless I find a new direction during the day.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Robbie Grossman, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw

DFS MLB – Indians at Royals

Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP 

2.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 26.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .198 average, .251 wOBA, 28.5 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .246 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

I’ve been pounding the table all season about how Kluber’s strikeout rate has plummeted this season and some nights that has backfired on me but some nights it’s worked out just fine. At his price tag, if you only get 4-6 strikeouts, you’re going to wind up disappointed. Kluber faced this Royals team already once this season and he only struck out four hitters. Through 17 starts this year, blubber has been over eight strikeouts just five times. I’m not interested in the Royals hitters tonight but I almost surely won’t be playing Kluber either at his price tag. I’d rather find the money for Scherzer.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

4.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .330 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 47.0 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .339 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

Junis has given up a whopping 22 home runs so far this season and you really want exposure to this Indians offense in a vacuum. It’s tough o balance where they rank among all the offenses we want tonight but Junis and his 2.03 HR/9 have to be attacked somewhere. It’s easy to say that Jose Ramirez is the best play from Cleveland and I wouldn’t argue that but some of the slightly cheaper options are Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Brantley. E5 is more appealing because Junis has given up more homers to righties(15-7) and it’s hard to think he can change that in this start. Cleveland is fourth in baseball in ISO this season and even Kaufmann Stadium probably can’t hold the ball into the yard tonight.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – 1-4 in the order, Encarnacion might be my favorite as a one-off

Secondary Options – Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Giants at Rockies

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .136 average, .191 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 11.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .212 average, .282 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 46.8 hard hit rate

I was ready to lock in Bumgarner at a discounted rate to not pay up for Scherzer or Kluber until I saw this game is in Coors Field. We actually have a reasonable sample size of Bumgarner in Coors. Through his 13 starts, we see a 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 58 strikeouts. While those numbers aren’t totally awful, that’s not something that I want a big piece of either. He also just pitched against the Rockies in his last start. The past two starts have been lights out from MadBum and I expect a solid start, meaning I won’t have a lot of Rockies either. The only hitters I might consider are Nolan Arenado because he draws a lefty in Coors and maybe Trevor Story. I really don’t think this is the spot where we need to jam in three or four Rockies in the lineup.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Areando

Secondary Options – Trevor Story

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

3.29 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .276 wOBA, 30.2 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .305 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

We need to note that Freeland is one of the weird Rockies pitchers that has better stats at home with a 2.95 ERA compared to a 3.50 away from Coors. I’m hoping Nick Hundley is in the lineup because he leads the Giants in ISO and wOBA against lefties this year. He”s also one of the cheaper ways into this game with a price of just $3,200 on FanDuel. If you’re looking for the premium play, Andrew McCutchen is your man. He’s crushed lefties through his entire career and actually gets to hit in a good hitter’s park for once. Frankly, I always have a bad read on Coors Field.  If I go heavy on this game, it tends to be lower scoring. If I leave it alone, teams are sitting with seven runs or more. My initial lean is it will be just fine to not go totally nuts with Coors tonight.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nick Hundley, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Options – Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Alen Hanson

Home Run Pick – Nick Hundley

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Diamondbacks

Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP 

3.22 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .292 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .320 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

I don’t know what the deal is FanDuel and their pricing as far as pricing. Sure, he’s struggled a little bit since returning from the DL and things hadn’t been going well up until the last start. Shutting down the Cleveland Indians should have been enough to jack up the price. Martinez is up there as one of the better value plays on the slate even though the Diamondbacks are a solid test. He should probably be at least $8,800 in this spot because Arizona carries the seventh highest  strikeout rate in baseball. The only two hitters I’d really make any kind of effort to fit would be Jake Lamb and David Peralta. The issue there is they’re both a touch pricey and there’s probably better spots to figure out. I usually don’t pay the premium for Paul Goldschmidt unless he’s facing off against a lefty. This side of the game is GPP only.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

4.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 35.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .192 average, .317 wOBA, 40.0 K rate, 53.8 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .304 wOBA, 33.9 K rate, 42.4 fly ball rate and 46.7 hard hit rate

If you’re looking to play Ray this evening, I’d recommend you do it on FanDuel. Since they don’t penalize for hits or walks given up, it’s a little less stressful to roster the lefty. Jose Martinez is usually a pretty regular target against lefty pitching but I’m not looking his way tonight. Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham and Jedd Gyorko are also normally interesting as well but Ray should get the better end of this lineup. He’s always risky because of his disaster potential and the Cardinals have enough good hitters to punish him if he’s not on his game. Given the state of the pitching tonight, Ray is in play in any format. You just have to hope he can keep his from from last start when he went six innings, struck out six and gave up no runs.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Jedd Gyorko

Home Run Pick – Tommy Pham

DFS MLB – Pirates at Dodgers

Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham, RHP 

3.82 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .246 average, .298 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.171 average, .238 wOBA, 32.4 K rate, 45.7 fly ball rate and 45.7 hard hit rate

It’s been a solid introduction to the Majors for Kingham, having only made six games. He hasn’t seen great fantasy results other than one of those starts in part because he’s giving up at least a couple of runs each time out and the strikeouts aren’t massive enough that you feel comfortable with the runs given up. I don’t trust Kingahm enough o pitch him and I would say the Dodgers lefties carry some interest tonight. I can virtually guarantee that they will go low-owned just like most slates when they’re the late game. Joc Pederson, Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger are the best hitters tonight and Pederson is by far the cheapest. He’s not cheap enough that it’s just an auto-lock but all three players are very good options.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Options – Matt Kemp, Justin Turner

Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP 

4.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .255 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 18.3 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .301 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

For how many times I’m willing to play Elias Diaz against a lefty, I’m going to need to get a shirt that says, “Elias Diaz is my homeboy” or maybe his number should be my next tattoo. He just hammers lefty pitching and he’s always cheap and would be a very solid way to have one bat going late into the night. The plus thing with Diaz is even though his home run upside isn’t always the best, he also rarely kills you with a zero. Josh Bell and Starling Marte could work their way not the player pool but I respect what Wood is capable of. It doesn’t seem like the best idea to play a lot of Pirates tonight.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz

Secondary Options – Josh Bell, Starling Marte

Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P- Robbie Ray  

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C/1B – Nick Hundley

2B – Jonathan Villar

3B – Johan Carmago

SS – Daniel Robertson

OF – Aaron Judge, Adam Eaton, Lonnie Chisenhall 

Utility – Edwin Encarnacion

After building my first run of the offense, playing Nate Eovaldi looks even more tempting. I think Ray is perfectly fine but having an extra $3,000 would go an awfully long way. We do get a little piece of Coors with Hundley and it’s a cheap way to get in on that game as well. Second base, third base and shortstop are all punts to an extent. You hope Villar swipes a base and scores a run because if that sequence hits, he’s in double digits for points and you feel solid. Carmago is my old faithful when I need a player in that range and Atlanta should put up some runs tonight so hopefully he’s a part of it. I’d settle for about nine pints from Robertson because the outfield is the main attraction. Judge, Eaton and Chisenhall all carry a ton of potential and then we polish everything off with E5 in the utility spot, hoping that Junis keeps getting tagged for homers.

The Core – Aaron Judge, Nick Hundley, Adam Eaton

Stacks to Consider – New York Yankees, Washington Nationals lefties, Los Angeles Dodgers lefties, Cleveland Indians and Coors Field

Next: MLB DFS Bargain Bin Plays

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.