DraftKings MLB Picks July 2nd: Is fading Scherzer the right move?

PHOENIX, AZ – JUNE 01: Clay Buchholz #32 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch in the first inning of the MLB game against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field on June 1, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks July 2nd: Is fading Scherzer the right move?

The Tigers and Blue Jays tangle in the afternoon, which leaves them only available in showdown mode. Those are two of the worst offenses over the last couple of weeks, so we aren’t missing much. That leaves us nine games for the main DraftKings tournament. We have some good, some bad, and some interesting pitchers. Let’s check this out!

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The only chance of rain is in Cincinnati, but it is no more than a 40% chance. The only wind is a crosswind in Phoenix, but with the temperature 105 degrees at first pitch, I’m guessing the roof will be closed.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays

CLEVELAND, OH – JUNE 20: Starting pitcher Corey Kluber #28 of the Cleveland Indians pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Progressive Field on June 20, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Max Scherzer ($13,300): Scherzer’s high strikeout rate always make him an option, but he only struck out four in his last start against the Rays, and didn’t pitch all that well in general. That was likely a fluke. However, it is worth noting that the Red Sox are hitting .240 with four homers and nine runs in only 50 at bats with 18 strikeouts. The strikeout potential is there, but Scherzer is not a slam dunk against this potent offense, especially with other top pitchers out there.

Corey Kluber ($12,500): Kluber has held the Royals to a .238 average in 223 at bats with just four homers, but he has given up 20 runs. However, the 72 strikeouts is plenty enough to make up for any runs Kluber gives up. The Royals are really struggling offensively lately. They are averaging under three runs per game since June 1st. Kluber has by far the most upside of anyone on the board tonight. If you are paying up, Kluber should be worth it.

Alex Wood ($8,900): The Pirates are hitting a decent .247 off of Wood, but they only have two homers and five runs in 73 at bats. The 18 strikeouts are a little low, but Wood is starting to get back on track here. He has 46.9 DraftKings points over his last two starts against the Cubs and Mets. Pittsburgh isn’t any better than the Cubs, so Wood has very good potential here.

Middle Tier:

Nathan Eovaldi ($8,700): Eovaldi has only faced the Marlins once, and he didn’t do all that well. I’m willing to forget that since Eovaldi is in a pitcher’s park, and he dominated the Nationals in his last start. Eovaldi throws really hard, so the strikeout potential is always high. There is a lot of potential here, though Eovaldi is not the most consistent guy around.

Carlos Martinez ($8,100): Martinez doesn’t exactly inspire confidence right now. Does the strong start against Cleveland make up for six poor ones? At any rate, Martinez has dominated the Diamondbacks. They are hitting just .229 against Martinez with just two runs in 70 at bats with 19 strikeouts. On top of that, Martinez has a 2.11 ERA in 21.1 innings at Chase Field, and that was before humidors. If Martinez is really back on track, he is really underpriced here.

Kyle Gibson ($7,800): I see you hiding out there! You risk takers. I saw you yawn through the Scherzer and Kluber bits. Get maybe a bit excited on Eovaldi. Do I have your attention now? Good. Gibson got thumped by the Brewers in Minneapolis. However, Gibson has a 2.60 ERA on the road this season, and is actually just above a strikeout per inning. If you are going to roll the dice with Gibson, make sure it’s in a road game. The Brewers may be tired from all that hitting in Cincinnati. If you got the stones, roll the bones with Gibson.

Bargain Pitchers:

Kyle Freeland ($7,000): Don’t look now, but Freeland has a 3.30 ERA on the season. It’s down to 2.95 in six home starts. Freeland just shut out the Giants in San Francisco for seven innings last week. He may not do that well in Coors, but I see a quality start at the very least. That’s more than worth the $7,000. Freeland has a 1.90 ERA in 19 innings against the Giants this year. One of those was in Coors.

Brent Suter ($6,500): Suter picked up 23.2 DraftKings points on the Twins in Minneapolis, and there really isn’t any reason that he can’t duplicate that at home. Suter’s road and home splits are nearly identical. He has struggled when going much beyond five innings this year, so don’t expect a huge score. However, the strikeout and win potential are both there tonight.

Anibal Sanchez ($6,300): The Yankees are only hitting .182 with four homers and six runs in 66 at bats with a decent 15 strikeouts. Still not a believer? Sanchez is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA in three career starts at New Yankee Stadium. Oh, he pitched 5.2 shutout innings at the old one as well. For whatever reason, Sanchez has handled the Yankees well throughout his career. Don’t question it. Just capitalize on it.

CINCINNATI, OH – MAY 04: Adam Duvall #23 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Scott Schebler #43 after hitting a solo home run in the first inning of a game against the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park on May 4, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox:

Yes, James Shields has pitched better over the last six weeks or so. However, Shields still has a 5.97 ERA on the road, and has allowed eight homers in his last five starts. That is not a good thing in Cincinnati. It is going to be very warm and very humid in the Queen City tonight. This is already a hitter’s park. This could be a very high scoring game. On top of that, the Reds are hitting .429 in 21 at bats against Shields. Scott Schebler has the only home runs, but Votto, Suarez, and the immense power potential of Adam Duvall look good as well. Don’t rule out Scooter Gennett or Billy Hamilton either.

Chicago White Sox vs. Luis Castillo:

Castillo has pitched better at home this year, but like I mentioned before, hitting conditions may never be better in Cincinnati. Castillo has allowed 18 homers on the season, and this White Sox team, though strikeout prone, has a lot of power. I like Matt Davidson and Abreu here. Moncada, Tim Anderson, and the red-hot Avisail Garcia are in play as well.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Wei-Yin Chen:

You may never see the Rays on here again. I also try not to make it a habit to stack in pitcher’s parks. However, with as cheap as the Rays are and as bad as Chen has been, this is not the worst idea in the world. The Rays put up pretty good numbers against both Verlander and Morton over the weekend. Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron, and Matt Duffy look really good. Willy Adames and Kevin Kiermaier are a notch below. The best part? All five of them are $4,000 or under.

Cleveland Indians vs. Jake Junis:

Cleveland didn’t hit Jake Junis as well as you may expect, but they faced him before his current rough patch. Lindor is 4-7 with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Junis. I’m big on Brantley and Jose Ramirez here as well. If you are looking to go a little cheaper, Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall are good mid level options.

Next: Other notes for 7-2

BOSTON, MA – JUNE 26: J.D. Martinez #28 high fives Mitch Moreland #18 of the Boston Red Sox after hitting a solo home ru in the sixth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park on June 26, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Rick Porcello has solid numbers on the season, but he has a 4.76 ERA in his last ten starts. Teams are starting to hit him harder. The bad news for Porcello is that Bryce Harper is starting to hit again. I also like Juan Soto here. Adam Eaton and Mark Reynolds have both homered off of Porcello from their time in the American League.

I was hoping for a price break on J.D. Martinez. I guess he is down a touch, but DraftKings did their homework. They realize that Martinez is 2-7 against Scherzer. Both hits are homers, and he has driven in seven. If I use another Boston player, it will be Mitch Moreland, who has homered off of him before, or Rafael Devers, who is starting to hit.

If you think Carlos Martinez is not completely back yet, the place to go here is with Goldschmidt, Lamb, and David Peralta.

Two out of three aint bad. No, I’m not quoting Meat Loaf. I’m talking about Jonathan Loaisiga‘s major league experience. The Braves do represent the best offensive team that he has faced so far, and with Yankee Stadium being a hitter’s park, there is significant risk involved. I think I’m inclined to take Anibal Sanchez and leverage that with Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and maybe even Ronald Acuna.

Surprisingly, Jesus Aguilar was the only Brewer to homer off of Gibson back in May. Of course, Thames was still on the DL. I like Thames here as well, but I’m not going to go crazy against Gibson on the road.

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Middle Tier:

Didi Gregorius has smacked two homers in only 11 at bats against Anibal Sanchez. If you don’t trust his run of success against the Yankees, Aaron Judge is not a bad idea either.

Mike Moustakas is 19-41(.463) with a homer and four RBI in his career against Corey Kluber. That said, I have a hard time believing that Moose breaks out against one of the best pitchers in the league.

Most of the Twins aren’t expensive, but I’m not sure how much exposure I want to a pitcher that really pitched well against them earlier this year. I like the power potential of Brian Dozier. Other than that, Adrianza and Robbie Grossman are solid punt options.

I know that a lot of people are high on all Coors hitters. It’s actually not that bad of an idea. Bumgarner has a 4.00 career ERA in 13 Coors Field starts. That’s not terrible, so stacking Rockies isn’t really high on my list. Some will stack, but I wont be one of them. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want exposure. Carlos Gonzalez is 20-62(.323) with five homers and ten RBI against MadBum. Arenado and Story have both homered off of Bumgarner as well.

Nick Hundley and Gorkys Hernandez have both homered off of Kyle Freeland in the past. So has Posey, but I’m not paying that kind of salary for him. Hundley and Hernandez are the options worth testing out here.

I like Nick Kingham, but I’m not sure that I’m ready to trust him after three weeks in the minors heading to Dodgers Stadium. I expect a solid start from Kingham, but not enough to actually use him here. Exposure to the Dodgers sounds like a little better plan, especially with the way that Joc Pederson is hitting. Matt Kemp is worth a look as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

Robbie Ray has actually struggled against the Cardinals in his career. That shouldn’t come as a surprise since the Cards hit lefties pretty well. Jedd Gyorko and Dexter Fowler are the two that have homered against Ray. Both are really cheap. Marcell Ozuna and Yadier Molina are worth a look at reasonable prices as well.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

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