DraftKings PGA: A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier Classic Picks & Analysis
DraftKings PGA: 2018 A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
TPC Potomac did not play as one of the most difficult courses on tour. The rough was punishing, but if you were able to keep the ball in the short stuff you could score. We saw that in all four rounds, with 63-62-62-62 being the low rounds. Congratulations to Francesco Molinari! As always, hopefully everyone won some money in their DraftKings PGA contests.
This week, the PGA tour returns to West Virginia for the Greenbrier Classic. The field is once again pretty weak. Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson headline the field, which includes 7 top 50 golfers. Maybe it’s the perennial poor field strength, but we have had some really wonky winners. Stuart Appleby (-22), Scott Stallings (-10), Ted Potter Jr (-16), Jonas Blixt (-13), Angel Cabrera (-16), Danny Lee (-13), and Xander Schauffele (-14) are your former winners. All 7 of these golfers are in the field this week.
Xander Schauffele birdied the final hole to post the low score in the clubhouse, and no one was able to catch the rookie. Similar to Quicken Loans National, the rough is the most difficult part of this course. Thankfully for this weak field, the fairways and the greens are easy to hit. The Par-70 course measures around 7300 yards this week, but the altitude makes it feel closer to 7000. There will be plenty of birdies to be had, with the winning score likely landing between -15 and -20. The 2017 leaderboard tended to favor precision golfers, but there were a healthy mix of bombers too. Excellent tee-to-green ball strikers will dominate my lineups this week.
DraftKings PGA: Key Course Stats
The keys stats that I am focusing on this week for Quicken Loans National DraftKings PGA GPP contests:
Tee to Green Gained
Par Breakers Gained
Scoring Gained
Par 4 Birdie or Better Gained
Par 4 Scoring Gained
Bogey Avoidance Gained
Bentgrass Greens Gained
As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.
The reason why I chose these key stats is because I believe this course will suit ball strikers that are accurate off the tee and on approach. DK scoring favors golfers who score and hit birdies. I weight Par 4’s gained because it is a par 70 course (12 par 4’s). Bogey avoidance is added because this rough will test even the best ball-strikers.
DraftKings PGA – Greenbrier Classic – Golfers to Target
$11,500 Tony Finau
Most of us are not accustomed to paying 5 figures for Tony Finau. Maybe it’s too much to pay, but he is one of the best golfers in this field. He just finished 5th at the US Open, and he has crushed this course. Finau posted a 13th in 2015 and a 7th last year. My model loves Tony this week. He ranks in the top 5 in the field in TTG, Scoring, Par Breaking, and Bentgrass Gained. Finau has 7 top 10’s, but is still looking for his first win this year.
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$9,000 JB Holmes
Holmes has been on fire lately. Before missing the cut at Quicken Loans National, Holmes rattled off a T13, 3rd and a T2. Holmes has excellent course history, with a 9th last year and two top-25 finished in 2014 and 2015. If Holmes is just an average putter this week, he can better his 2017 top 10.
$8,900 Ryan Moore
Moore sets up excellently for this course. He is 2nd in the field tee-to-green, 4th in scoring and 3rd in par 4’s gained. Moore has not competed at the Greenbrier Classic, but brings in solid form. This year, Moore boasts 6 top 20’s in 15 events.
$7,600 Scott Piercy
Scott Piercy is one of the premier ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks 3rd on the tour in approach gained and 17th in tee-to-green gained. Piercy is also somewhat of a par 4 specialist, ranking in the top 15 in the field in par 4 scoring and par 4 birdie or better. The form has not been excellent, but Piercy has won this year (Zurich Classic) and made the cut in his last event. Piercy finished T29 at this tournament in 2015.
Values to Target
$7,900 Aaron Wise
Since winning the Byron Nelson, Wise has missed 3 straight cuts. The rookie has hit a rough patch, but looks to rebound at the Greenbrier Classic. His skillset sets up very well for this tournament. He is solid tee to green and he is a very good putter. Meaning that the kid can score if a course fits his eye (-23 at the Byron Nelson). $7,900 is way too low, so I am going to sprinkle some shares on Wise and hope he once again pops.
$6,700 Jason Kokrak
Kokrak looks to rebound after 3 straight missed cuts. Kokrak is not a precision golfer, and the courses really have not suited his game. The Greenbrier Classic, however, suits his game really well. The course is wide open, allowing Kokrak to pound the ball tee-to-green for four days and run up the score. Sort of like what he did at the Career Builder for a T8. $6700 and a projected ownership of <2%, I love the value.
Make sure to follow @Mystery_Main for up-to-date injuries, withdrawals, and ownership projections up until the tournament. And follow @FantasyCPR for your daily fantasy fix.