DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, July 2nd Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Sunday, July 1st

Before we get to today’s edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, we’ll look back at Sunday’s suggestions fared in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

• Sunday was a big day in terms of offense, and luckily, a good bit of it came from some our bargain bin suggestions. However, our bargain arm was on the wrong end of some of those hits, as Jameson Taillon couldn’t get out of the fifth inning at Petco Park. He wasn’t a complete washout by any means, but some control issues had his pitch count at 88 by the time he got the hook. Hunter Renfroe put the final nail in his coffin with a solo homer when Taillon was just an out away from wrapping up the inning, leading to a relatively mediocre outing.
• In Baltimore, Trey Mancini and Mark Trumbo particularly came through from our bargain suggestions, combining for three homers against Deck McGuire and the vulnerable Angels bullpen. Tim Beckham also contributed a pair of RBI with his one hit.
• Matters didn’t unfold as successfully in Toronto, as Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann was a lot better than expected. However, despite the Blue Jays coming up with only one run, bargain suggestion Teoscar Hernandez was able to contribute a triple and cross the plate, while Justin Smoak drove him in with a double. The rest of the suggested Toronto value bats — Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson — came up empty.
• In Cincinnati, Matt Harvey continued his surprising resurgence, but the lefty Brewers bats suggested managed to generate some production. Travis Shaw contributed a pair of singles, Eric Thames had a walk and a run, Brad Miller mustered a single and Jonathan Villar drew a walk.
• The Cubs pounced on Lance Lynn at Wrigley as expected, and the suggested duo of Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber were excellent. Happ went 3-for-4 with a solo homer, a walk and two runs, while Schwarber delivered a pair of hits (including a double), an RBI and two runs. Jason Heyward came up empty in five at-bats, though, and Ben Zobrist was only able to draw a walk and score a run in three at-bats.
• Of our suggested Texas bats, only Rougned Odor really made any noise (3-for-3, an RBI, two walks and two runs). The White Sox bargain plays were a completely different story, as the quartet of Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson combined to go 11-for-18 with four doubles, two triples, eight RBI and eight runs.
• Yesterday I spoke about a trio of Dodgers with very good track records against Rockies starter Chad Bettis, and one, Matt Kemp, really delivered. The veteran slugger went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run, four RBI and a run. Another, Yasiel Puig, managed a double and a run, while Justin Turner walked and scored once.
• The Pirates’ Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco also had favorable history against Padres starter Tyson Ross, and as such, they were the only two bargain bats I’d suggested against the right-hander. Dickerson made his one hit — a solo homer — count, and he also scored twice. Polanco wasn’t nearly as successful, only drawing a walk over four plate appearances.
• The Giants’ Derek Holland was better than expected, but ultimately, suggested bargain plays John Ryan Murphy and Nick Ahmed delivered strong returns on their bargain prices. Murphy finished 2-for-4 with an RBI single, a double, a walk and a run, while Ahmed was 2-for-5 with a triple and a run.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

White Sox bats go ham- The foursome of Anderson, Garcia, Abreu and Davidson accounted for 80 percent of the team’s runs on the day. There were many other fine performances just listed, but Chicago bats really stood out.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s): 

Taillon falters, Heyward comes up empty– Taillon was a mistake or two from a much different outing, while Heyward was seemingly the only Cubs left-handed bat that didn’t pick on Lance Lynn and the Twins bullpen.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, July 2nd Evening Slates 

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to a Monday “Quick Hits” edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Monday’s evening slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, July 2nd Evening Slates Quick Hits

• Monday’s slate is an interesting one in terms of locating a value pitcher, and ironically, I’ll be looking to Coors of all places to identify mine. Kyle Freeland is very cheap across the industry and has actually been a much better pitcher in his home park, boasting a 2.95 ERA and .228 BAA across 36.2 innings, along with a 90.7 percent strand rate. He also just dominated the same Giants squad he’ll face Monday in AT & T Park last Wednesday, shutting them out over seven frames. He’s turned in quality starts in his last three trips to the mound, and in four of his last five outings overall. The Giants also sport a .275 wOBA and paltry .114 ISO against lefties on the road over the last month, along with a -5.9 wRAA.

• A quick note about Rick Porcello at Nationals Park. He’s really struggled against lefty bats at home, yet his numbers against them on the road are the diametric opposite. However, digging a bit deeper reveals there could be some regression coming, considering he’s allowing a .232 BABIP, 25.5 percent line-drive rate and 42.1 percent hard contact rate to that handedness away from Fenway. Therefore, I’d give Daniel Murphy (who also owns a .500 average against him over six plate appearances) and Adam Eaton (.385 average against over 14 plate appearances) some consideration for tournaments if they’re priced right.
• White Sox starter James Shields has been much better overall this season than in recent years, but he still has significant vulnerability to left-handed hitters on the road. The veteran righty has allowed a .409 wOBA (including five homers), 5.45 xFIP and 35.9 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats outside of Guaranteed Rate Field, which puts him in the crosshairs for Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker and the switch-hitting Tucker Barnhart (who’s much better versus right-handed pitching). Naturally, Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are non-bargain plays to consider here too. It also bears mentioning that the White Sox bullpen has allowed a 5.40 ERA to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month

• On the other side of the White Sox-Reds matchup, a hot-hitting White Sox squad has plenty of value plays that bear consideration. Reds starter Luis Castillo allows identical .325 wOBAs to hitters from either side of the plate at Great American Ballpark, along with a 38.8 percent hard contact to lefty bats and a 27.8 percent HR/FB rate and 41.4 percent hard contact rate to righty hitters. Castillo also allows a .384 wOBA on his four-seam fastball and a .470 wOBA on his fastball sinker, the two pitches he throws most often.

• The White Sox lineup is loaded with bargain bats that do well against one or both of those pitches, including Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Leury Garcia, Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia, Adam Engel, Omar Narvaez, Yoan Moncada and Yolmer Sanchez. They’re all still priced affordably and therefore worthy of consideration as stacks that you can combine in different ways for tournaments. Reds relievers have also been susceptible to lefties at home in the last month (5.47 ERA, .322 wOBA allowed) too, boosting up the case for Moncada, Sanchez and Narvaez in particular, as well as Leury Garcia if he’s in the lineup.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, July 2nd Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• Brewers righty Brent Suter has allowed a .330 wOBA, 4.78 xFIP, 25.0 percent HR/FB rate and 35.9 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters at home, while the Milwaukee bullpen has allowed a .372 wOBA, 27.0 percent line-drive rate and 35.1 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters at home in the last month. In terms of Twins value bats, that puts the likes of Joe Mauer, Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman and Max Kepler in play Monday.

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FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Sunday July 1

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday July 1

Dodgers lefty Alex Wood isn’t someone who I typically rush to target in DFS, but he does have a certain degree of vulnerability to right-handed hitters at Dodger Stadium (.328 wOBA, 24.3 percent line-drive rate, 42.7 percent hard contact rate allowed). Therefore, especially for larger-field tournaments, bargain bats Jody Mercer, Elias Diaz, Starling Marte (where affordable), Josh Harrison and the switch-hitting Josh Bell (.399 wOBA versus lefties on the road) are all worthy of a look. Be mindful as well of a Dodgers bullpen that allowed a .296 average, .373 wOBA and 40.8 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at home over the last month.

• And since we’re seemingly picking on aces Monday, don’t shy away from some bargain right-handed bats against Madison Bumgarner at Coors. The southpaw is allowing a .389 wOBA, 6.04 xFIP and 50.0 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road over a 44-batter sample, bringing Ian Desmond (.333 average, .442 wOBA against lefties at home), Tom Murphy, Pat Valaika and Noel Cuevas into play if they’re in the lineup.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and fantasy sports analysis!