DraftKings MLB Picks July 3: Should we pay for Kershaw?

DENVER – OCTOBER 11: The team observe the national anthem as the Philadelphia Phillies face the Colorado Rockies during Game 3 of their National League Division series at Coors Field on October 11, 2009 in Denver, Colorado. The Phillies defeated the Rockies 6-5. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks July 3: Should we pay for Kershaw?

With two matinees and the Red Sox and Nationals being unique and starting an hour earlier than everyone else, we are down to 12 games in the main DraftKings tournaments today. There would be an ace on the slate if the Dodgers didn’t have Kershaw’s pitch count closely monitored. That was the only way they could think of to make fantasy leagues fair again is to only use Kershaw for six innings during the middle of the season. Can he hit value with that much usage? Or should we drop down into the crowded middle tier for both pitchers? Let’s check it out!

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There are slight shower chances in Philly and New York, but even if they do show up, it isn’t anything that’s going to cancel a game. They should move on rather quickly.

There is a stiff 16 mph wind blowing out to right on Oakland, but that’s normal. The 12 mph wind in from left in Denver could temper some of the allure of Coors Field offense.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays

MIAMI, FL – JUNE 28: Zack Greinke #21 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches in the first inning during the game against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on June 28, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Zack Greinke ($10,900): Greinke does not have great career numbers against the Cardinals, but I simply can’t ignore his home dominance this year. Greinke has a 2.40 ERA in eight home starts with 50 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. Opposing teams have not scored a run against Greinke in his last two starts. I doubt he shuts out the Cardinals, but he should be much better than when the Redbirds blasted him in Busch earlier this year.

Zach Eflin ($9,900): It’s tough to pay this much for Eflin, but he does have a 2.59 ERA in four home starts, and this Baltimore offense continues to struggles against right handed pitching. It could have to do with the seven right handed starters in their lineup. The Orioles also lose the DH in Philly, so Eflin gets a bit of a bump in strikeout potential as well.

Shane Bieber ($9,600): I usually avoid when a pitcher’s price is inflated almost solely based on opponent. After all, the Royals did get three runs off of Kluber last night. However, after a rocky debut against Minnesota, Bieber has allowed just two earned runs over 18.2 innings in his other three starts. There is no reason to think that the Royals can change that.

Middle Tier:

Dallas Keuchel ($8,500): We take a break from the interleague extravaganza to bring you Keuchel against the Rangers. The Rangers are hitting .242 with five homers and 28 RBI, but they have faced him 363 times already with 82 strikeouts. There is risk here since Texas hits lefties a little better, and he does have a 5.19 ERA in 13 career starts in Arlington. However, Keuchel has pitched reasonably well against Texas this year with a 4.15 ERA in three starts with 15 strikeouts to two walks.

Bargain Pitchers:

Clayton Richard ($6,800): You may be able to play Richard and pretend its Kershaw against Oakland. The A’s have a decent offense, but Richard has only allowed more three earned runs once in his last 11 games. It may bother some that it was in his last start, but that should just keep ownership down a little. Richard should be in for a solid start tonight at a low price.

Ryan Yarbrough ($6,200): Yarbrough is actually going to start tonight since Wilmer Font is on the DL and the Rays have actually had to use Romo as the closer. This could be a good thing for us DFS people. I have used Yarbrough several times in “relief” since DraftKings lets you search all pitchers, even the ones that aren’t starting. Yarbrough has only allowed one run over his past 10.2 innings, and those were against the Yankees and Astros. The Marlins shouldn’t pose much of a problem here.

CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 20: Adam Duvall #23 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Billy Hamilton #6 after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Great American Ball Park on June 20, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds won 5-3. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Atlanta Braves vs. Domingo German:

German has had some really good outings lately, then he gets punished by the Rays. Inconsistency will keep happening with the rookie throughout the year. Most times I wouldn’t recommend stacking against him for that reason, but Atlanta has some really good bats in this lineup. Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies are elite plays. Markakis and Acuna are a notch below. Dansby Swanson and Tyler Flowers are worth a look as well.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Alex Cobb:

This could be the best alternative to Coors simply because of the price. Well, and Alex Cobb and his 6.75 ERA can turn any stadium into Coors Field. It’s warm and humid in Philly, so expect some offense in this one. Hoskins and Odubel Herrera are elite plays. Franco, Alfaro, and Cesar Hernandez are certainly worth a look as well. So is Nick Williams if you need a cheaper piece.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Lucas Giolito:

A struggling pitcher at Coors on the Ohio? Don’t mind if I do! The Reds are on fire anyway. Suarez and Votto are elite plays, and I love the power potential of Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Jose Peraza. I want to see something from Scooter before I shell out that much for him.

Colorado Rockies vs. Chris Stratton:

The Rockies are hitting .472 in 53 at bats against Stratton with two homers and 11 runs with just five strikeouts. With that many balls in play in Coors, bad things are going to happen if you’re a Giants fan. I didn’t invest heavily in Coors last night, and that was mostly the right move. I’m all in tonight though. Arenado and Blackmon have the homers, but no single Rockies player has worse than a .250 average against Stratton. You can use anyone 1-8 depending on your budget.

San Francisco Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela:

Senzatela has okay numbers against the Giants. Okay wont get it done in Coors. Joe Panik has homered off of Senzatela twice already. The Brandons are both in play, and I’m a big fan of McCutchen here as well. For your fifth, Posey isn’t a bad option, but if you need to go cheaper, Gorkys Hernandez could be a solid pick.

Cleveland Indians vs. Danny Duffy:

If you stacked Indians last night, you likely finished in the money. That could be the recipe tonight as well. The Indians are hitting .259 against Duffy, but they have seven homers and 31 runs in 185 at bats. Yan Gomes is the only one that has multiple homers. He has two and five RBI to go with his .391 average in 23 at bats. Brandon Guyer is a great way to get cheap exposure, and he is 7-14 with a homer against Duffy. Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Edwin, and Jason Kipnis have all homered off of Duffy as well.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ivan Nova:

Nova should call in sick after what the Dodgers did to his teammates last night. The Dodgers batted around in three consecutive innings last night for the first time since they moved to Los Angeles! Matt Kemp has eight straight hits, so starting there is a good idea. Logan Forsythe and Grandal have the homers against Nova so far. Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor had big nights last night as well. Bellinger and Puig are good picks as well.

Next: Other notes for 7-3

BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 01: Mike Trout #27 talks with Albert Pujols #5 of the Los Angeles Angels before the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 1, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Yes, I like Sean Newcomb. No, I don’t like him in Yankee Stadium, even at a discount price. There is way too much right handed power in the Yankee lineup. Judge and Stanton are worth a look here. So is Aaron Hicks while he is still on a tear.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx has pitched reasonably well, especially at home. He also has limited exposure to the Astros. Either you are all in on this or you aren’t. I don’t really see a one off unless you want to pay the premium for Altuve. Josh Reddick provides cheaper exposure with power potential in the middle of the lineup. Overall, I see Houston as kind of a risky stack, especially with all of the other good stack options available.

I do like Jack Flaherty, but his price in a hitter’s park is discerning. I don’t want to pay five figures for Flaherty here, even though we saw Martinez take care of Arizona last night. I would rather use that money to play Goldy and maybe David Peralta.

Believe it or not, Wade LeBlanc has good career numbers against the Angels. I don’t trust it enough to actually use him. I would rather go with Trout, who homered in his only game against LeBlanc, and Albert Pujols, who has homered off of LeBlanc twice in six at bats.

The Mariners beat up on Andrew Heaney in Seattle earlier this year. They have destroyed him wherever they have played him. Haniger and Ryon Healy have both homered off of Heaney. Nelson Cruz has two homers off of him already.

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Middle Tier:

Anthony DeSclafani has pitched better on the road than at home, and while the White Sox do strike out a lot, there is a lot of power in this lineup as well. Abreu, Moncada, and Matt Davidson are good candidates to go deep. So is the hot Avi Garcia. DeSclafani has allowed six homers in five starts this year.

I am debating using Wheeler in Toronto, but with what the Jays did to him back in May, and this being in Toronto, I’m going to look towards Smoak and Teoscar Hernandez, the two that homered off of him in that May game.

Jose Martinez hit a three run homer off of Greinke earlier this year. Marcell Ozuna has three homers and four RBI off of Grienke. Matt Carpenter is 9-26(.346) with two homers and three RBI off of Greinke. Can any of them do it in Arizona?

I don’t really trust Keuchel in Arlington. Adrian Beltre is 21-68(.309) with two homers and six RBI against Keuchel. Nomar Mazara, Odor, and DeShields have homered off of him as well. Ryan Rua is super cheap, and he is 7-24(.292) with three runs, a steal, and two RBI against Keuchel.

I just can’t get my head around stacking Mets, but Marco Estrada has struggled against these guys. Todd Frazier has homered off of him twice already. Jose Bautista homered off of Estrada in the only game he played against him. Asdrubal has a homer as well, but it is his only hit in eight at bats.

I don’t really see a stack option against Bassitt, and it’s mostly because the Padres offense still isn’t very good. Eric Hosmer and Travis Jankowski are worth a look though from the left side.

Bargain Shoppers:

You can pay up for Kershaw if you want, but I’m not falling into that trap. The Pirates are hitting .280 in 75 at bats against Kershaw with a homer and seven RBI. Kershaw is going to put up solid numbers, but I see better options, and we need the money for hitters. David Freese is very cheap, and could be a sneaky play. Freese is 7-24(.292) with five RBI against Kershaw. Polanco has the only homer off of him. Don’t go too crazy though. Kershaw is still an elite pitcher.

I want some exposure to the Rays no matter who the Marlins start. Matt Duffy and Daniel Robertson are great places to get exposure on the cheap. If you are willing to pay a little more, Wilson Ramos and Kevin Kiermaier are worth a look too.

Jonathan Lucroy is 7-18(.389) with a homer and six RBI in his career against Clayton Richard. Piscotty is 3-4 with a solo homer against Richard.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

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