DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, July 4

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a seven game main slate on our hands this evening.

Happy Fourth of July to everyone out there! We do have some other games during the day but I’m going to just sit back and enjoy some baseball without DFS MLB implications until the main slate. The 1:05 slate only has three games anyways and those are very dangerous so we’ll stick to the seven gamer in the evening. We finally got back on track last night with scores of over 160 points and it feels really nice to be back on track. I hope everyone stays safe as they celebrate today and if you’re playing some DFS tonight, you came to the right place!

DFS MLB – Astros at Rangers

Astros Probable Starter – Lance McCullers, RHP 

3.55 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 25.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .256 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 28.5 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .319 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 25.7 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

The righty for the Astros has been a little more consistent this year and there’s a chance that this game could be a ceiling game. McCullers is tougher to lefties and that’s where the majority of the good hitters for the Rangers are. Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo will all hit lefty against McCullers. Texas already carries a hefty 25.2 strikeout percentage, third worst in the league. We’ve seen McCullers go at least six frames in six straight starts and it’s hard to find much to pick on here. I’m not sure I’m paying the premium for hime but McCullers is firmly in play and I’ll leave the Rangers alone tonight. The first start of the season for McCullers came against Texas and he struck out 10 batters over 5.1 innings.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Adrian Baltre, Delino DeShields

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP 

4.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .290 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .333 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 47.8 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

Minor actually managed to squeeze out a quality start when he faced the Astros about a month ago but I’m not betting on that scenario playing out again. He has to face this powerful Astros lineup and they should feast on him by the numbers. He’s getting hit hard by righty bats and it should be hot in Texas once again. That means the ball is going to fly and I’m likely to continue to go back to Max Stassi.

His ISO against lefties is almost .240 and the wOBA is up over .390. Stassi costs you just $2,200 on FanDuel and is a great way to save some money. Alex Bregman and George Springer would be my next choices if I’m building a stack and Springer feels super cheap at $3,700. Even if I wind up not stacking, Stassi and Springer both seems too good to pass on tonight. With it being a small slate, I like the idea of playing all three in all formats.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, George Springer, Max Stassi

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Home Run Pick – George Springer

DFS MLB – Mets at Blue Jays

Mets Probable Starter – Corey Oswalt, RHP 

*One career starts* 9.82 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Seeing as how Oswalt has only pitched 7.1 innings in the majors, I’m not terribly concerned about the splits here. He’s gotten knocked around so far and he’s relying on his fastball or sinker 64 percent of the time(36 percent fastball and 28 percent sinker). The strikeout potential is lower and the best fastball hitter won the team is Curtis Granderson, who should lead off and I would suspect will be highly popular in cash games. Teoscar Hernandez is a solid option with a high ISO against righties and his price is still reasonable at $3,500. He carries considerable upside but if you want to drop back and pay a good deal less, take a look at Randall Grichuk. He’s down at $2,400and carries a .291 ISO against righties so far to go along with his .342 wOBA. Taking a couple of cheap Jays tonight could free up the money for a big bat or the high end pitcher.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Curtis Granderson, Randall Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Options –Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .307 average, .358 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 18.1 fly ball rate and 44.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .296 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 21.5 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

If you’re looking to load up on the bats on this slate, Stroman might be the pitcher you gravitate to.   He’s looked really solid since coming back from the disabled list and even though the Mets offense did some damage last night, odds are they don’t have too many good games in them. Toronto will also need the bullpen to get a rest tonight after they came in during the first inning last night. Marco Estrada left with an injury so the Jays pen went basically the entire game. While Stroman doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside, he’s going to generate plenty of ground balls and should limit the damage. One factor that is working against Stroman is the Mets are in the bottom five of ground ball rate in baseball. The metrics look poor but Stroman appears to be on the rebound. He’s so cheap we have to give him a look.

Mets Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto

Home Run Pick – Randall Grichuk

DFS MLB – White Sox at Reds

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .370 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .282 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 21.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

You’re much braver than I am if you want to take a shot at Covey tonight. The wheels are completely off for him lately, with a grand total of -5 FanDuel points in his last three starts. Seeing as how he’s been much worse against lefties, this wouldn’t appear to be the time when things get better for him. The Red are chock full of lefties that can do some damage headed up by Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto. Both have wOBA’s of at least .375 and are excellent plays tonight.

I really don’t think I can pay $4,000 for Scott Schebler with all the options on the board but he’d be fine in a four man stack. Jesse Winker is cheaper and a little bit easier of a fit. Eugenio Suarez is no slouch with a .258 ISO against righties and Jose Peraza remains white-hot right now. Like I said, this is not a good spot at all for Covey and the Reds should be able to put up a lot of points.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options -Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker, Jose Peraza

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.30 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 16.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .372 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .321 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 32.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

This game could shootout again just like it did last night because Romano has not been good against lefties and there’s three options at the top of the White Sox lineup that could be a problem for him. Yoan Moncada is scuffling and I will guarantee one thing – if I don’t play Moncada after jumping on him so often, he’s going yard at least once tonight. Yolmer Sanchez is probably the safest play with his 15.5 strikeout rate and .323 wOBA against righties. He’s a hair more expensive than normal and you could go right back to Daniel Palka after his two homer game last night. It’s hard to get on board with the White Sox totally but there’s no debating the lefties are in a juicy spot tonight.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Matt Davidson

Home Run Pick – Scooter Gennett

DFS MLB – Pirates at Dodgers

Pirates Probable Starter – TBA

Legitimately as I finished butting this side of the game together, Joe Musgrove was announced to the disabled list. The Pirates won’t name a starter until the wee hours of the morning, but I’ll leave up what I wrote because much of it will probably still stand. The Bucs love a fastball heavy approach and that’s not good to mix with the Dodgers hitters.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before- there is a Pirates righty who throws his fastball a lot and is worse against lefties is squaring off against a lefty heavy team that crushes fastballs. It’s been the same story for this whole series but I’m not bold enough to throw Musgrove tonight. Joc Pederson and Max Muncy are in the top 50 in baseball against the fastball(Matt Kemp is actually sixth but does bat righty) and over the past month, Muncy is second in baseball to only Paul Goldschmidt against fastballs. He may well be first after mashing again last night.  Cody Bellinger isn’t a bad play at all and you can finish things off with Kemp. Yasmani Grandal might go under the radar but he’ll hit lefty and smacks around fastballs as well.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Options – Justin Turner, Chris Taylor

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

4.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .286 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .279 average, .380 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 47.3 hard hit rate

I probably wouldn’t blame you if you felt like taking a shot with Rich Hill tonight. He’s been mostly good in his three starts since returning from the disabled list and the Pirates have a pop-gun offense, especially with no Starling Marte in the middle of the order. There’s no hitters that scare you other than my personal favorite, Elias Diaz. He owns a .262 ISO and a .447 wOBA against lefties this season and just hit a home run off lefty Alex Wood on Monday night. I would still lean towards Stassi since he’s $600 cheaper and I think Hill is better than Mike Minor but Diaz is a great option as well. I’m really not chasing any other Pirates hitters even on a smaller slate. There are other teams in better spots.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz

Secondary Options – Josh Harrison

Home Run Pick – All of the Dodgers

DFS MLB – Giants at Rockies

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .208 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 25.9 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .312 average, .366 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 48.7 hard hit rate

Well, we’ve hit the easiest part of the night for cash games. The absolute number on priority in cash is Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. If you don’t play them and you don’t cash, it’s going to be your own fault because they are in a total smash spot. They get a lefty who is very poor against righties in Coors Field. They will be at least 70 percent owned in cash games if not more and that’s because they destroy lefty pitching. Both players ISO’s and wOBA’s of at least .300 and .400. This blurb might be a little repetitive but I can’t stress enough how important it is to lock these two guys in. DJ LeMahieu would be a perfectly fine option as well and you can finish off a four man stack with Ian Desmond if you choose. It’s hard to go wrong when we get the Rockies at home.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Areando, Trevor Story(first thing you do when you build your lineup for cash)

Secondary Options -DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .329 average, .426 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .300 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

After what the Giants did to me last night, I’m pretty gun-shy going right back to them tonight. I’d love for Nick Hundley to be in the lineup as he ranks as the Giants best hitter against lefties with a .408 wOBA and a .350 ISO. Brandon Crawford is the best lefty on lefty hitter for the Giants and even though he is expensive, he would be an interesting pivot in tournaments from Story. Andrew McCutchen should be recharged after his day off yesterday and he’s always hit lefties well throughout his career. There’s at least some hesitation with him because he’s not known for his power and he’s over $4,000 on FanDuel. If a Giants hitter fits nicely into my lineup, I don’t have an issue but I’m not sure I’m bending over backwards to get them in.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nick Hundley, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Belt

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story

DFS MLB – Indians at Royals

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 31.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .196 average, .252 wOBA, 33.2 K rate, 33.9 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .271 wOBA, 30.3 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Well, this game is one of the easier ones to break down. I would love to spend on Bauer tonight as he should be able to mow down this Kansas City lineup. Bauer has been a Terminator lately and hasn’t scored under 40 FanDuel points since May 11th. His price should be as high as it is right now but he will be on the back burner this evening. I will not have a single Royal in my lineup tonight. I guess you could say the Royals would be a solid leverage play because Bauer is so good. It just seems like such a low probability play that it’s not the best idea.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Royals Probable Starter – TBD 

Apparently, major league baseball and their starting pitchers didn’t want to cooperate with me this evening. Ian Kennedy was lined up to start this game and that was exciting because the Indians are a good offense and Kennedy is a poor pitcher. They have yet to announce their starter either but if it’s some jabroni from AAA, the Indians are going to be right up there with Coors Field as far as stacking options. If it’s a righty pitcher, Jose Ramirez is the best option by the numbers and if it’s a lefty, head towards Francisco Lindor. We’ll see who’s pitching and how the Indians lineup shakes out to figure out the best targets otherwise.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Options -TBD

Home Run Pick –  Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Diamondbacks

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 17.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .274 average, .307 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .168 average, .195 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 23.5 fly ball rate and 273 hard hit rate

Seeing the sizable splits that Mikolas has shown this season, the lefty hitters for the D-Backs could be the pivot play for tournaments that nobody looks towards. David Peralta and Jake Lamb are both $3,600 and are solid options. Lamb hasn’t quite gotten up to speed yet returning from injury but that will be part of the reason he will go close to un-owned. Peralta carries the best wOBA on the team against righty pitching and is virtually tied with A.J. Pollock for the team lead in ISO. This isn’t the spot to pay up for Paul Goldschmidt regardless of the fact he’s one of the better hitters in the league. You’re playing probabilities and it looks grim as far as Goldy having a big game. Jon Jay could be someone you look towards dar to handedness, just be aware he’s turned back into Jon Jay lately which is to say not a good hitter.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Lamb, David Peralta(GPP)

Secondary Options – Jon Jay

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.14 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 32.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .335 wOBA, 30.0 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 45.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .185 average, .235 wOBA, 32.5 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

At a guess, I would say that one of the more popular lineup constructions tonight will be the trio of Arenado, Story and Corbin for cash games. You can at least work with the remaining salary from those three players and the Cardinals are an odd matchup against lefties. They downright stink in some respects. They rank 21st or worse in average, wRC+, wOBA and OPS to go along with the 10th highest strikeout rate in the league. The negative as far as Corbin is concerned is they rank 10th in ISO so when they make contact, it’s not just for singles. Tommy Pham and Jose Martinez lurk as excellent lefty hitters, and Jedd Gyorko stands out with a .341 ISO and .448 wOBA in 50 AB’s this year. Corbin could have a really good but he’s not a safe play by any means and has pitched a good deal better on the road. I would want him more in GPP than cash games tonight and the same goes for the hitters.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jedd Gyorko, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Options – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Harrison Bader

Home Run Pick – David Peralta

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Marcus Stroman 

More from FanSided

• Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions

C/1B – Max Stassi

2B – Scooter Gennett

3B – Nolan Arenado 

SS – Trevor Story 

OF – George Springer, Randall Grichuk, Curtis Granderson

Utility – Ian Desmond 

This is really the definition of a sample lineup right now. Max Stassi was hit by a pitch and was forced to leave the game last night so we’ll need to monitor his status. I’m really leaning towards paying down at pitcher because the hitters are just too important. We have a couple of Blue Jays to attack Corey Oswalt and we have a good left hitter against Dylan Covey. Springer is at least $500 too cheap and I think he might make the core. Everything revolves around the three righties for the Rockies. Yes, they will be popular. It’s just chalk you have to eat because if 80 people have Arenado  and he goes nuts for 40+ points, you’re in real trouble. The only issue I have right now is we have no Dodgers and no Indians. Depending on the announced starting pitchers, that really might have to change. It’s going to be a challenging slate to fit the offense in.

The Core – Nolan Areando, Trevor Story, George Springer

Stacks to Consider – Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians

Next: Top Bargain Bin Plays for the Main Slate

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.