FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Wednesday July 4

Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for the 4th of July 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Yesterday, one of our top FanDuel MLB pitchers was Jack Flaherty. Flaherty was an affordable option with high-upside thanks to his highest K-rate over the last month. Unfortunately, Jack gave up four runs over 6.2 innings. However, Flaherty piled up seven K’s during that time. 27 FanDuel MLB points wasn’t our ideal outcome, but it was welcomed.

One of the reasons we were OK with Jack’s outcome, was due to the fact that most pitchers were crushed last night. Offense was the theme of the night. However, that presented a problem. One of our biggest stacks was focused on the Phillies, who fell short with only three runs, after a rain delay.

Nolan Arenado was an obvious, but expensive, play last night. Having Nolan in our lineup was a big help. But we also had a nice left-handed value play with $2,200 Tony Kemp in our lineup for the Astros. We figured Kemp would play, given the pitcher match up, and he smashed a home run early in the game. Still, the lack of offense from the Phillies crushed us!

Today, there is a plethora of FanDuel MLB slates. The day starts off super early with the Red Sox and Nationals throwing the first pitch within an hour before noon. The only way you can play that game is in the “All-Day” slate. From there, we have sever more games comprising the “Early Only” slate.

After reviewing the pitching options in the Early Only option, we’re fading that play. Also, given the lengthy time between the Nats and Red Sox start and learning of lineups from other teams throughout the day, the All-Day slate seems to risky. So, we’re going to focus on the “Main” slate only for tonight.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: If you’re playing the “All Day” or “Early Only” slate, the Braves and Yankees have some shower concerns early on today. However, we should only see a delay, and the odds are good they’ll play the whole game.

For the Main slate, it currently appears the Giants and Rockies have the highest shower or thunderstorm risk. But the risk is low. So, green light to play all teams tonight. Also, thanks to the consistent ‘heat dome’ over the U.S. this week, expect lots of offensive fireworks tonight!

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

Gerrit Cole ($11,500) has the highest K-rate of any starting pitcher in the FanDuel MLB Main slate tonight. But if you just look at his starts over the last 30 days, Cole’s K-rate drops down to 27.6%. That’s still a solid strikeout rate, but it’s only fourth best of all the starting pitchers.

Gerrit has seen the Rangers and produced a solid 49 FanDuel MLB points in Early June. But given his trend, you’re likely paying nearly $12K of your total salary for another shot at 40 to 50 FanDuel MLB points. Given the price tag for the best offensive stacks tonight, that salary is hard to swallow.

Trevor Bauer ($12,000) is clearly the best starting pitcher tonight. Even recently, Trevor’s metrics are only getting better. In the last month, Bauer has a 36.4% K-rate, higher than any other pitcher in that time, starting tonight, and much higher than his seasonal average. If you can find cheap bats to stack for cash games, Bauer is a comfortable 50 FanDuel MLB points against the Royals tonight.

With a trend of cheap pitchers dominating FanDuel MLB slates lately, we looked at the cheaper pitchers before we considered Patrick Corbin ($9,600). Of the cheap arms on the mound tonight, Rich Hill ($7,600) appears to be the best guess at 40+ points on a sub-$8K salary. Hill isn’t only a great play for GPP, but he’s actually a decent play for Cash games as well.

We might go with Hill given the expensive offensive stacks tonight, but we think we can fit Corbin into our lineup, while still getting great value on offense. Why Corbin? Patrick has been one of the most consistently dominate pitchers this season.

Yes, his incredible dominance from the early part of the year has tailed off a bit. But Corbin is still fanning hitters at a 29.3% rate over the last 30 days, second only to Bauer. The Cardinals bats will scare some people off of Patrick, but we know the Cards have been horrendous against left-handed pitchers over the last month.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

Even though the Rockies piled up eight runs last night, the Giants offensive possibilities fell short. Looking at Tyler Anderson‘s seasonal metrics, he doesn’t seem like someone you’d way to stack against tonight. So it’s likely the Giants will be low-owned, even in Coors Field. I think that’s a mistake.

When you look at the game-by-game metrics, Anderson’s statistics plummet in Coors Field. You can’t blame him, most pitchers do. That is a great reason to still consider the Giants as an offensive stack tonight,. Even if a mini-stack or ‘one-off’ play.

My favorite play from the Giants lineup is Alen Hanson ($3,200). He’s been consistently productive on offense, and you’re not giving up too much salary. Also, stack the Rockies. Or, at the very least, find a way to get Nolan Arenado ($5,100) into your lineup, regardless of your pitching pick.

If you’re going with Hill at pitcher, it’ll be easier to stack the Giants and Rockies, or parts of each lineup and grab some top Reds or Astros bats. But if you’re going with Corbin, you may need to do some deeper research and find the value in each of their lineups.

The Astros have some obvious expensive plays, but they also have plenty of value plays like the Kemp pick we had last night. One guy we’re looking for in their lineup tonight is Jake Marisnick ($2,500). Ignore his seasonal totals, he’s hot right now. Regardless, Astros are in play against Mike Minor.

Dylan Covey had a solid start to the season mid-spring this year. But since then, his pitching metrics are plummeting. In fact, over the last 30 days, Covey’s ERA is 6.66 with a 1.73 WHIP. Dylan is also giving up over two home runs per outing lately. That’s why we LOVE the Reds in a solid offensive Great American Ball Park.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

Bauer is an obvious top pick at pitcher for cash games tonight. You absolutely have to fade Trevor in GPP, if you want any semblance of offense. We like Corbin as a more affordable top pitcher pick in both the GPP and Cash game plays, but Rich Hill is a better value.

For offense, the Rockies are an obvious great play, but we think the Giants may scare some people off after scoring only one run in Coors Field last night. Anderson isn’t as great as his metrics speak to in his own yard.

Dylan Covey was a flash-in-the-pan DFS MLB optimal lineup consideration earlier in the year. That has changed. Covey has been horrendous over the last month, and the Reds bats are a great stack tonight. Also, we’ll continue to look at the Astros value plays, as they continue to plug and play options in the outfield.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Wednesday, July 4th 2018:

FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup: 

P               Patrick Corbin ($9,600)

C/1B        Russell Martin ($2,300)

2B             Alen Hanson ($3,200)

3B             Nolan Arenado ($5,100)

SS              Jose Peraza ($3,300)

OF             Carlos Gonzalez ($3,500)

OF             Jesse Winker ($3,200)

OF             Kevin Pillar ($2,300)

UTIL          Jake Marisnick ($2,500)

Remaining Salary: $0

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Game by Game Breakdown

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, PGA, and World Cup this summer!