MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Day Games

Welcome to a 4th of July “Quick Hits” edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin for the holiday’s daytime games, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit in Wednesday’s day games!

FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Day Games Quick Hits

Finding a trustworthy bargain pitcher for the daytime slates is considerably challenging, and none come without at least a healthy share of risk. However, one that offers a certain degree of promise on paper is the Tigers’ Francisco Liriano, who faces a Cubs team that won’t have Kris Bryant, who happens to have an excellent track record against him. Bryant won’t come off the disabled list as originally expected Wednesday, which gives the veteran southpaw a bit of an advantage right off the bat. Moreover, Liriano has been appreciably better on the road as well (3.05 ERA, .201 BAA, .275 wOBA, 25.4 percent hard contact allowed) than at Comerica Park, and it bears mentioning that two of the Cubs’ most potent hitters besides Bryant — the left-handed Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber — have ISOs of .091 and .043, respectively, versus southpaws. The Cubs also sport just a collective .105 ISO, -1.2 wRAA and paltry 23.7 percent hard contact rate against left-handed pitching at home over the last month of play, bolstering Liriano’s case even a bit further.

In terms of bargain bats, we’ll begin at Nationals Park, where there’s value to be had on both sides of the matchup. On the Boston side, Nationals pitcher Erick Fedde has been vulnerable to hitters from both sides of the plate, while the Washington bullpen has allowed a 5.65 ERA and .398 wOBA (including nine extra-base hits) to left-handed hitters at home over the last month of play. Taking all of those factors into account, that puts the likes of Sandy Leon, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt in terms of value plays to consider if they’re in the lineup (in addition to all the other more expensive Boston bats)

Over on the Nationals side, Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has had some troubles with left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a .368 wOBA and 40.0 percent hard contact rate to them away from Fenway. While that’s over a fairly limited sample of 33 hitters, he’s giving up a .333 wOBA to lefty bats overall on the season. That puts Daniel Murphy in play if he happens to be in the lineup against the southpaw, and naturally, Juan Soto (who’s affordable relative to the top players at outfield in the all-day slates).

Braves starter Julio Teheran has his share of trouble against left-handed hitters, including on the road, where he’s yielded a .334 wOBA, 5.81 xFIP and 39.3 percent hard contact rate to that handedness of hitter. Consequently, that puts value bats Greg Bird and Brett Gardner under consideration for the Yankees.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Day Games Quick Hits (cont.)

One Braves value bat I’d consider against

CC Sabathia

Kurt Suzuki

, who owns a .366 wOBA versus lefties on the road over a modest sample, and who’s hit four homers (and seven extra-base hits overall) against Sabathia over 44 career plate appearances.

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Marlins starter Jose Urena has particularly been hit hard by left-handed hitters, including at home, where they’ve made hard contact against him 44.7 percent of the time. He’s also allowed a 21.4 percent HR/FB rate to lefty bats there, so I’d give Jake Bauers, Joey Wendle, Mallex Smith and even the struggling Kevin Kiermaier consideration.

Cubs starter Jose Quintana tends to give up plenty of hard hits (12 extra-base hits) to right-handed hitters at home, as evidenced by the .350 wOBA and 33.8 percent hard contact rate he’s allowed that handedness at Wrigley. In turn, Jeimer Candelario, John Hicks, Niko Goodrum and Jose Iglesias are all Tigers switch-hitting or right-handed value bats who hit lefties very well, and that also perform well against the low 90s fastball that Quintana throws. It’s also worth noting that the Cubs bullpen has allowed a .384 wOBA and 7.17 ERA to right-handed hitters at home in the last month of play.

The combination of Orioles starting pitcher Yefry Ramirez and the Baltimore bullpen makes the Phillies a very interesting stack to consider in Wednesday’s early slates. Ramirez’s major-league numbers are very limited, but it’s worth noting he’s had some trouble with lefty hitters at Triple-A Norfolk (5.00 ERA, .271 BAA, 1.44 WHIP allowed). Meanwhile, the Orioles bullpen has yielded a .411 wOBA and 6.85 ERA to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month, and a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road during that same span. The likes of Scott Kingery, Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco, Jorge Alfaro or Andrew Knapp and Nick Williams all are worthy of considering as value options.

FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Day Games Quick Hits (cont.)

The Marlins also make for an intriguing team to consider in terms of value plays Wednesday. The Rays are scheduled to go with another one of their “bullpen days”, with

Matt Andriese

serving as the opener. However, it’s going to be interesting to see what actually unfolds, as they were forced to use a whopping eight pitchers (plus catcher

Jesus Sucre

) in a 16-inning marathon against Miami on Tuesday. At this writing, the latest news is their bringing up two pitchers from Triple-A Durham for reinforcements Wednesday, but no matter how you slice it, this is going to be a tired group. Thus, give Miami value bats of either handedness consideration.

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The Padres Luis Perdomo is drawing a start Wednesday, which brings the Athletics into focus. Perdomo has especially had trouble with left-handed hitters in his career (.363 wOBA allowed, including .463 this season). He’s allowed a 33.3 percent line-drive rate and 50.0 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats in 2018 as well, so give Matt Joyce, Matt Olson and Jed Lowrie — keeping in mind the latter two may not fall into value range on all four sites — serious consideration.

Brewers starter Chase Anderson has taken his share of lumps at Miller Park, allowing a total of 14 homers there overall. Both right-handed (.342 wOBA) and left-handed (.377 wOBA) hitters have enjoyed success, so Joe Mauer, Jake Cave, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman and even Jorge Polanco deserve consideration.

Angels starter Garrett Richards is bad against lefties on the road (.299 BAA, .381 wOBA, 1.98 WHIP, 24.5 percent line-drive rate and 40.8 percent hard contact rate allowed) and against Mike Zunino as well (.636 average over 11 plate appearances versus Richards). Consider the slugging backstop, as well as Dee Gordon (.400 average over 16 plate appearances versus Richards), Kyle Seager and Denard Span as value options to throw out against the Angels starter as a result. The LA bullpen is also overworked (26 innings over last week) and has allowed a .319 wOBA and 11 extra-base hits to left-handed hitters on the road over the last month of play.

Next: Main Slate Bargain Bin Plays

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