MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Evening Slates

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Evening Slates

Welcome to a 4th of July “Quick Hits” edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin for the holiday’s evening slates, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Wednesday’s evening slates!

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Evening Slates Quick Hits

Just as was the case with the daytime games, it’s a tricky proposition to identify a trusted cost-savings option at pitcher in the evening. However, the Blue Jays’

Marcus Stroman

fits the bill, given that he’s come off a disabled list stint looking like a completely different pitcher after a ragged start to his season. Since his return, the right-hander has allowed just one earned run over 12 innings across two starts against the Angels and Tigers while generating a 9:1 K:BB. The projected Mets starting lineup has a collective 22.9 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and New York sports an NL-low .200 average and 22.0 percent strikeout rate overall in the last week of play. Stroman has the ability to be a much better pitcher than he showed to open the season, and his last two starts certainly seem to bear that out. With not many other trustworthy options and a very affordable price across all four sites, he’s who I’d turn to if I was looking to save some cash at the position.

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The White Sox and Reds played a 12-inning slugfest Tuesday and used a combined 12 relievers, so both bullpens could be ripe for the picking Wednesday. The appeal of this game as one to score some value bats from is enhanced by the fact that both starting pitchers — Dylan Covey and Sal Romano — have also proven vulnerable on multiple occasions this season.

We’ll begin with Covey, who’s allowed a .370 wOBA to left-handed hitters that rises to .423 when facing them on the road. All four homers he’s allowed that handedness have also come away from Guaranteed Rate Field, and given the hitter-friendly conditions of Great American Ballpark, he makes for an appealing target for the likes of Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker and Tucker Barnhart in terms of value plays. Moreover, all three players sport impressive wOBAs against the fastball-sinker that’s Covey’s trademark pitch, and that he allows a .364 wOBA on.

Meanwhile, Romano has been tagged by left-handed hitters for a .380 wOBA at home, and he’s yielded a 1.98 WHIP and 38.7 percent hard contact rate to that handedness there as well. The usual suspects on the White Sox that have been doing so well from the left side of the plate in recent days — Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka and Omar Narvaez — are all worthy of consideration as a result, especially considering the Cincy bullpen is allowing a 44.4 percent hard contact rate and 4.94 ERA to left-handed bats at home in the last month. Keep in mind Romano has also yielded 10 homers overall to right-handed hitters, so I’d also give the red-hot Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson and Tim Anderson consideration as value options also in what could be another high-scoring affair.

The Rangers’ Mike Minor has been very impressive of late, so I don’t advocate picking on him too much. However, he’s had his share of troubles on the road, especially against righty bats, which own a .388 wOBA against him away from Globe Life Park. Yuli Gurriel, who already boasts a .571 average against him over seven at-bats, and Max Stassi are two bargain bats that come to mind as potential options on the Astros.

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday, July 4th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

The Mets’

Corey Oswalt

hasn’t pitched much in his rookie season, but he’s been very bad when he has (9.82 ERA). He’d been having plenty of trouble against both sides of the plate in the minors as well, so I’d consider a number of Blue Jays value bats of either handedness here, including

and

. The lefty bats have a particular advantage, considering the New York pen — which could figure in heavily in this game — has yielded a .413 wOBA (including seven homers) and a 6.75 ERA to lefty hitters on the road in the last month.

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The Royals’ Trevor Oaks is another young first-year pitcher taking the hill Wednesday, and he has the unenviable task of facing the Indians potent lineup. There aren’t many Cleveland bats that can be considered true bargain plays, but the likes of Yan Gomes, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis could certainly qualify. The lefty bats of that group (the last three mentioned) are particularly appealing options, considering Oaks allowed a .283 average and 1.66 WHIP to lefty hitters at Triple-A Omaha this season. The KC bullpen has had its share of troubles versus left-handed hitters as well, allowing a 5.25 ERA and AL-high .414 wOBA to the 61 left-handed bats they’ve faced at home in the last month.

The Pirates’ Clay Holmes is the third potential sacrificial lamb to get the starting nod Wednesday, and he’ll also have a fatigued bullpen behind him. Therefore, the Dodgers could be in play from both sides of the plate, as Holmes has shown his share of vulnerability to either handedness of hitter in the minors. Where affordable, I’d certainly consider Justin Turner, Matt Kemp, Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor from the right side, along with Joc Pederson and the switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal from the left (Cody Bellinger will be priced above value range). The right-handed hitters are in a bit of a better spot against Pirates relievers on paper, as they’ve yielded a .338 wOBA to that handedness on the road in the last month.

It’s worth noting the Pirates could also be in a favorable situation against Dodgers starter Rich Hill, who’s allowing a .389 wOBA (including seven homers) and a whopping 50.0 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters at Dodger Stadium. Starling Marte, Elias Diaz, Josh Harrison and Jody Mercer all qualify as value plays worth considering here, and keep in mind the Dodgers bullpen is also allowing a .360 wOBA to righty bats home in the last month. However, it’s also interesting to note that several value Pirates lefty bats — Corey Dickerson, Austin Meadows and Gregory Polanco — all sport impressive wOBAs against southpaws and versus the high 80s fastball that Hill throws most often. Therefore, they’re worth a look as well.

And finally, I’m a bit torn on the Giants-Rockies tilt at Coors, as Colorado starter Tyler Anderson has been very hard to predict this season. His numbers against lefty bats are very bad, but they’re over a limited sample, so it’s hard to put too much stock in them. Given this, however, Joe Panik is a Giants value bat that might be worth considering. Meanwhile, the Giants’ Andrew Suarez‘s .397 wOBA, 26.3 percent line-drive rate and 43.6 percent hard contact rate allowed to righty bats on the road put Ian Desmond, Tom Murphy, Noel Cuevas and Pat Valaika in play in terms of value Rockies bats from the right side.

Next: Bargain Bin Plays for the Early July 4th Slate