MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday July 4
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was all abotu some big time offensive games as the White Sox bats exploded for 12 runs against a chalk pitcher in Anthony DeSclafani with Avisal Garcia, Daniel Palka and Yoan Moncada putting up three of the top five scores on the slate while the Dodger just continue to rake with 8 runs of their own and Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Yasmani Grandal putting up top 10 fantasy performances of their own.
We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
I love how FantasyDraft set up this July 4th slate as we have seven early games and seven main slate games so needless to say, I am going to make time for some MLB DFS action on my day off. The early slate pitching has Aaron Nola ($25.6K) at the top of the pricing spectrum and frankly, this could not set up to be a better match-up for the Phillies ace against the Orioles.
Nola dominates right-handed batters with a 28.8% K rate and will face an Orioles team with only one left-handed batter (Chris Davis) while the projected line-up has a 25.5% K rate against RHP this season. Nola has also been on a tear at home – his last three games in Philadelphia – racking up 8,10 and 10 K’s while giving up only 1 run in each outing against the Nationals, Rockies and Blue Jays with over 30 FantasyDraft points in each outing. Nola is the top SP1 on this slate and I think a must in cash games and even tournaments when you consider the upside and match-up today.
Luis Perdomo ($8K) is back for the Padres and I am not sure how I can pass on a Picks and Pivots favorite at this price point today. Perdomo has a sweet spot for me in DFS as he helped me win a GPP last season against a right-handed heavy Tigers line-up and today, Perdomo will face a right-handed heavy A’s squad. Now, why does this matter? Perdomo showed in 2017 how nasty he can be against RHB with a 20%K rate, a massive 66% ground ball rate and a hard to soft contact rate under 10% (31.2% HC versus 21.3% SC).
In his last three outings in AAA before re-joining the Padres today, Perdomo has gone 6-6-7 innings with 75, 90 and 101 pitches in his final outing so you are getting a punt arm that is fully stretched out in a massive pitcher’s park in Oakland that will face a predominately right-handed heavy team.
Perdomo’s early season numbers in 2018 look ugly which is why the price is where it is, but remember he was dealing with a shoulder injury which is what initially landed him on the DL before making his way to AAA for San Diego. At this price point, you really do not need much and Perdomo’s ability to induce ground balls (62% rate in 2017 which was second in all of baseball), combined with his ability to limit hard contact while still getting a near 10% swinging strike rate just checks too many boxes for me as a cheap SP2 and I will look to pair him with Nola across the board today on FantsyDraft.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
The Yankees check in with by far the highest run total on the early slate at 5.32 and against Julio Teheran in Yankee Stadium, it is not hard to see why. Teheran has typically been a pitcher we want to attack with left-handed batters but this season he is giving up a .220 ISO to RHB with a .201 ISO to left-handed bats with a 41% fly ball rate and 35% hard contact rates so basically he is getting hit hard by any and all comers and the Yankee stack is priority number one on this seven game early slate.
The beauty of pairing Nola with Perdomo is that you have more than enough room to stack up the Yankees big bats like Aaron Judge ($10.3K), Giancarlo Stanton ($10K), Didi Gregorious ($9.3K) and a red-hot Aaron Hicks ($9K) but you can also drop down to “cheaper” plays like Brett Gardner and Greg Bird who are each under $8K and full on stack this Yankee spot today if you are so inclined. If there is any team in baseball I am willing to utilize the 6 man stack on FantasyDraft on, it would be this Yankee team, and on a seven game slate taking that all-in stand could pay off huge and separate yourself from those who play the core 3-4 big bats.
With the Yankees being the chalk early stack, we are going to need ways to differentiate and rather than “fading the chalk” hitters, I think we can attack a pitcher I believe will be extremely popular in LHP Jose Quintana. Quintana is a massive -230 home favorite against the Tigers and any time we get a mid-level arm with these kind of Vegas metrics, people tend to over own them as their “safe SP2” and if you have every watched or rostered Quintana than you will know he is far from safe.
Quintana struggles with right-handed bats, surrendering a .185 ISO and 43% hard contact rate this season and will face a Tigers team that people just love to pick on – but if there is one thing they have, it is right-handed power bats that mash LHP. Over the last two seasons – Nick Castellanos (.276 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (.235 ISO) and James McCann (.236 ISO) have simply destroyed left handers and when you consider that Quintana has nearly a 2 HR/9 rate against RHB in Wrigley the last two seasons this is a spot I want to stack with Tigers bats in what could be a massive leverage spot if Quintana is popular.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Aaron Nola ($25.6K)
SP: Luis Perdomo ($8K)
IF: Nick Castellanos ($8.7K)
IF: Jeimer Candelario ($7.8K)
IF: James McCann ($5.6K)
OF: Aaron Judge ($10.3K)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($10K)
OF: Aaron Hicks ($9K)
UTIL: Didi Gregorious (9.3K)
UTIL: Scott Kingery ($5.7K)
Slate Overview: At first glance on this slate my goal was to find a way to get Aaron Nola and the Yankee stack which meant I needed value and that comes in the form of Luis Perdomo as a punt SP2 with upside. I think you can go one of two ways with the Yankee stack as chalk today – either go all-in and stack up 6 bats on FantasyDraft which people rarely seem to do, or you leverage a 3-4 Yankee stack with a second stack that is lower owned like the Tigers. Either way this looks to be a pretty awesome early slate – let’s start our July 4th off with a bang (ha see what I did there).
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
The seven game main slate is going to be an intriguing one as we have a handful of aces in Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole and Patrick Corbin but we also have a game in Coors Field and 10+ run totals in Cincinnati and Texas so there will be an offense versus pitching discussion we need to have.
As much as I like and respect the top arms on this slate, there are viable mid-tier options that give us a clear path to stacking up bats so my initial focus is on pairing Rich Hill ($16.8K) and Marcus Stroman ($12.6K) who check in as -205 and -190 home favorite against the Pirates and Mets respectively.
Hill is coming off a strong home performance against the Rockies where he struck out 10 batters in 6.2 IP, throwing 110 pitches which was by far a season high in pitches for the Dodgers left-hander. Since coming off the DL in mid-June, Hill has a 28.4% K rate and a 9% swinging strike rate and will take on a Pirates team with a slate low 3.15 run total which is 1.3 runs lower than their season average so Hill makes for an exceptional cash game play with the K upside to utilize in GPP play as well.
Stroman has looked fantastic since coming off with the DL with back to back starts against the Tigers and Angels where he has pitched 12 innings, giving up only 1 ER and putting up 23 and 17 FantasyDraft points in those 2 starts. Over those two starts, Stroman has a 11.1% swinging strike rate with an elite 71.4% ground ball rate and will take on a Mets team with the third lowest run projection on the Main Slate.
Hill and Stroman are essentially giving you the exact same play – big home favorites against weak offenses with mid-level K upside and most importantly, they open up the salary for you to stack up all the bats you could want tonight!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
We have a left-handed pitcher in Coors Field tonight as Andrew Suarez and his 50% HC rate and .174 ISO against RHB this season will step to the mound which means – how many Rockies right-handed batters can we fit in? Nolan Arenado (.447 ISO), Trevor Story (.302 ISO) and Ian Desmond (.313 ISO) all have mashed LHP this season and every single one of these bats has a 41% or higher HC rate – much like the Yankees on the early slate, this is the chalk core stack but I have no interest in fading it and will simply eat the chalk and look to find other ways to differentiate.
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
The Dodgers have scored 25 runs over their last two games and will take on a pitcher in Clay Holmes who relies on a high velocity fastball but has also struggled with walks throughout the minors with an 11% BB rate the last two seasons.
The Dodgers line-up is loaded with batters that smash RHP as Joc Pederson (.322 ISO), Max Muncy (.371 ISO), Yasmani Grandal (.247 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (.267 ISO) are all elite plays here as a secondary stack to pair with the Rockies right-handed batters mentioned above. Holmes relies on a 93MPH fastball and this is a pitch this core group of Dodgers crushes as every single batter mentioned above has a .180+ ISO against that pitch with Grandal (.283 ISO) and Bellinger (.456 ISO) specifically profiling in elite spots for this match-up.
Slate Overview: This Main Slate looks relatively simple to me at first glance – stack up the Rockies RHB and pair them with the Dodgers, using Hill and Stroman as the mid-level arms to make this build work with relative ease. Enjoy your Fourth of July all – get some time off, spend it with family and friends and let’s win some MLB DFS money!
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!