DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, July 5

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nice sized eight game slate on hand tonight so let’s get going.

Last night was basically a DFS MLB unmitigated disaster because Marcus Stroman got destroyed by the Mets. The offense also didn’t show up to cover up his poor start and it was a very early night. Some may take it as a lesson that paying up for a pitcher is the right move, but you weren’t any happier last night if you payed big money for Gerrit Cole. Baseball is a fickle beast and we’ll try again to tame it tonight.

DFS MLB – Marlins at Nationals

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

*1 career start* 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Instead of worrying about the splits in his six career innings, we’ll take a look at the scouting report from FanGraphs - 

"Lopez missed 2014 due to a ligament tear that required Tommy John surgery, and then he struggled to miss bats in 2015 and 2016 while throwing a nearly elite level of strikes. His stuff is up. His fastball sat in the 92-96 range with life last year and touched 97. Lopez does it easy and commands his fastball, average breaking ball, and changeup. He’s gone from projecting as an up-and-down arm to a potential No. 4/5 starter in the last year. Lopez was acquired from Seattle as part of the David Phelps deal ahead of the 2017 trade deadline."

The Nationals really need to get moving in real baseball because they’re starting to fall behind a little bit in the division. Over the past two weeks, the team ranks 23rd in runs scored which just isn’t good enough for an offense with this kind of talent. Since the splits for Lopez can’t be trusted here, we’re going to look at the hitters who can hit righties and fastballs. The number one correlation there is Juan Soto and the plus side is he’s a good changeup hitter as well.

Bryce Harper is always in play and capable of a monster game but it’s the same story with him. I can’t pay premium prices for him at the moment and wouldn’t do it unless you’re playing a Nats stack. Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and and Adam Eaton are all in the mix as well. Rendon is the Nationals best changeup hitter in addition to being good against fastballs although $4,200 on FanDuel is a little steep.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options –  Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner

Nationals Probable Starter – Jeremy Hellickson, RHP 

2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .319 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 27.7 strikeout rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .249 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Hellickson continues to turn out quality innings for the Nats, which is something I still can’t believe that I’m typing right now. It may be unbelievable but he needs to be taken seriously. I don’t want to play him because he generally doesn’t go deep enough into games to be worthwhile. With the Marlins offense not being all that good, Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour would be the hitters I would look at if I needed a value option. Some people might chase the big game from J.T. Riddle yesterday but I have a hard time suggesting that. The slate is too big to go heavy on Marlins against a solid pitcher.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour(value only)

Secondary Options – J.T. Riddle

Home Run Pick – Adam Eaton

DFS MLB – Rangers at Tigers

Rangers Probable Starter – Yovani Gallardo, RHP 

9.00 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .364 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .326 average, .392 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

I usually don’t have much interest in the Tigers when they’re up against a righty pitcher, but Gallardo on the road has me bending my normal rule. I don’t know if I’ll totally buy into a Tigers stack, but Nicholas Castellanos and Niko Goodrum might be my favorite plays from the team this evening. The ISO for Castellanos is the most attractive part because it stands at .203 against righties. Goodrum does carry a very high strikeout rate over 30 percent but his ISO is actually better than Castellanos at .218. I suppose Jeimer Candelario could be an option as well, but he’s been ice cold lately and I prefer to play him against lefty pitching.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .268 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .303 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 46.4 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

It’s a little weird to see the fly ball and hard hit rates against lefty hitting for Boyd. It would lead us to believe he’s getting waxed by lefties but that really hasn’t been the case so far. I might leave the lefties alone and just stay with the righties in this game. Jurickson Profar has the best combo of wOBA and ISO but right behind him is Ryan Rua. Profar is almost certainly the safer play, but Rua is a fine salary saver if you love your lineup and need a last man in. Adrian Beltre was scratched last night due to something with his tooth, so double check if you want to play him tonight. We’ve really seen a lack of power this season from him so he’s not someone I’ve played a whole lot. The last player I would consider is Delino DeShields since he’s under $3,000 and he has stolen base upside.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jurickson Profar, Delino DeShields

Secondary Options – Adrian Beltre, Ryan Rua

Home Run Pick – Jurickson Profar

DFS MLB – Braves at Brewers

Braves Probable Starter – Max Fried, LHP 

2.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 32.9 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .191 average, .360 wOBA, 44.0 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .295 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 18.5 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

I really don’t understand why Fried is only $5,900 after dropping 63 points in his last start, but man is he intriguing tonight against the Brewers. Ryan Braun and Jesus Aguilar both concern you if you decide to play Fried. Braun has always smashed lefties, although he hasn’t been quite as good this year. Aguilar has been incredible this year and he hits the fastball and curveball well. One of the keys is Lorenzo Cain. If he returns tonight, my interest in Fried would be lowered considerably. If he remains out, I think Fried is well worth a shot in tournaments. His past two starts have been really good and the Brewers lineup could struggle. They also strikeout way less on the season against lefties but some of that has been Cain. This game as a whole is a tournament game because the outcomes could be very different.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez, Jonathan Villar

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .339 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .266 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

If you read this somewhat regularly, you know that a pitcher against the Braves that is weaker against lefty hitters has me licking my chops a little bit. Freddie Freeman left yesterday’s game, but is expected to be in the lineup tonight. He’s a dynamite player tonight give the low strikeout rate Chacin has against lefties. Bad things are going to happen if you’re not going to miss his bat. Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are really good plays but the team leader in ISO is Ozzie Albies. He’s been white hot lately, and even though I usually reserve him against lefty pitching, tonight might be a different story. I won’t play Chacin given the downside against the top of the Braves order.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Options – Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte

Home Run Pick – Jesus Aguilar

DFS MLB – Orioles at Twins

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.48 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .351 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .379 wOBA, 13.2 K rate, 30.7 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

There’s probably going to be a good portion of players who see Cashner against a lefty heavy team and load up on the Twins. I don’t think I’m going to be one of them because I sense a solid outing coming from Cashner. He hasn’t given up more than three earned in any start since the end of May, and even though I’m not going to play him, I’m not stacking the Twins this evening. Brian Dozier might be the play here in tournaments because he’s just been too inconsistent to trust in cash games. My two favorite plays are Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver. Rosario is lefty but he’s just a flat out good hitter. He’s also killed righty pitching with a .416 wOBA and a .298 ISO. Garver probably won’t be very popular, but he’s carrying a .532 wOBA over the past 14 days and it’s .336 over the course of the season. He’s one of the only righty hitters in the Twins lineup that could hurt Cashner.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver

Secondary Options – Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco

Twins Probable Starter – Aaron Slegers, RHP

*20.2 career IP* 5.66 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 13.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .182 average, .261 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 47.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .362 wOBA, 10.0 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 48.4 hard hit rate

I’m not sure anyone knows exactly what an Aaron Slegers is but he does draw a Baltimore squad that is circling the drain at this point. The Orioles might have one of the worst records in baseball and a poor offense but I doubt I have the guts to play Slegers. The fact he’s been far worse against righties so far is a big issue against the Orioles because they are super righty heavy. I would rather play Mark Trumbo for $1,200 less than Manny Machado on FanDuel because Trumbo’s ISO and wOBA are close to identical to Machado against righty pitching. Every other main cog for the Baltimore offense has a wOBA under .330 at this point in the year so I think Adam Jones would be about the only other potential play. Even then, I highly doubt I’m running towards them this evening with maybe the exception of Trumbo.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Adam Jones

Home Run Pick – Mark Trumbo

DFS MLB – White Sox at Astros

White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP 

4.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .328 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .303 wOBA, 16.5 K rate, 57.7 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard hit rate

Rodon is still working his way back from major injury and hasn’t really found his groove yet. He’s only got one quality start under his belt and it’s hard to predict him getting another one tonight on the road against Houston. The Astros are one of the best teams in baseball against lefty pitching, ranking at least sixth in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Since we don’t have a Coors game on this slate, Alex Bregman is the clear top option at third base. He’s got more walks than strikeouts and has a wOBA and ISO over .400 and .280, respectively. He’s also been insanely hot so he’s got to be due a poor game at some point, but it’s hard not to keep riding him. His price doesn’t seem to want to go over $4,500 either. Max Stassi and George Springer would be up next and a three man stack looks awfully good right now. Houston could go bonkers tonight and I definitely want a piece of this offense.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Max Stassi, George Springer

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Yuli Gurriel

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.12 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 31.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .155 average, .237 wOBA, 33.3 K rate, 55.3 fly ball rate and 23.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .201 average, .243 wOBA, 29.5 K rate, 53.3 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

We have a really interesting situation with Verlander tonight. His price is through the roof on FanDuel at $12,200, and even though he’s facing the White Sox, I’m having a hard time paying that price. Since Verlander dominated the Yankees with 14 strikeouts on May 1st, he’s made 11 starts. In those starts, he’s only had more than 8 strikeouts three times and he’s had three with six strikeouts or fewer. He does get a White Sox team that carries the fifth highest strikeout rate against righties and he is at home. Still, at his price tag you need him to be in top form to pay that price off. He really hasn’t been that guy too many times since May 1st and his last two starts have been flat out poor. I’m not trying to say he’s been a bad pitcher in real life, just that he hasn’t been worth his massive price. One really weird BvP stat is Jose Abreu. He’s faced Verlander 38 times and has fifteen hits with five home runs.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu

Home Run Pick – Jose Altuve

DFS MLB – Padres at Diamondbacks

Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP 

5.08 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .283 average, .338 wOBA, 12.1 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .322 average, .387 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

If we can find the right pitcher(that’s been quite the challenge lately), I’m looking to play some of the Astros with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock together. If Max Stassi doesn’t play, John Ryan Murphy would be a great pivot for just $200 more. The Diamondbacks trio is not only at home but against lefty pitching, all three posses a wOBA over .380 and an ISO over .290. They all smash left pitching and Lauer is a very average pitcher in Chase Field. The Arizona lefties aren’t the worst play ever but I’m focused on the righties as Lauer has given up nine home runs to them against just one to lefties. Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed would both be really solid value plays tonight as well.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, John Ryan Murphy

Secondary Options – Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Shelby Miller, RHP 

11.42 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .368 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 46.2 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .476 average, .500 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 12.5 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Until Shelby Miller gives me a reason to stop hammering hitters against him, I will continue to do so. The top of the Padres lineup could pay off and I’d probably take their two best hitters, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers. Hosmer is always kind of a weird one to suggest because he doesn’t have the typical power you want from a player at his price point. I’d prefer Myers because he’s more likely to hit a home run and he’s got the potential to swipe a base. Hunter Renfroe and Travis Jankowski have been hot lately as well and I don’t hate them. Renfroe is typically a lefty specialist, but Miller has been dreadful so far. The splits don’t worry me all that much. Miller does have a good strikeout rate which is a concern with the Padres as they are neck and neck with the Phillies for the worst strikeout rate in baseball against righties.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Options – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer, Manuel Margot

Home Run Pick – A.J. Pollock

DFS MLB – Angels at Mariners

Angels Probable Starter – Jaime Barria, RHP 

3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .264 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 41.3 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .371 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 48.2 fly ball rate and 42.2 hard hit rate

Tyler Skaggs was lined up for this start but found himself put on the disabled list yesterday. Barria will step into his place and he’s been worse against righties this year but is giving up a ton of fly balls and hard contact. If you’re looking for power, Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger would be the top plays from Seattle tonight. I’m a little partial to Denard Span as a salary saving option and perhaps one of the best mid-range plays is Kyle Seager. His price hasn’t quite reflected his sot streak and he might be the best way to get a piece of this offense without paying through the nose.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Options – Denard Span, Jean Segura

Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP 

3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .302 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .316 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 27.6 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

I can’t blame you at all if you want to play Mike Trout against a mediocre lefty, but it’s worth noting that he hasn’t exactly been at his normal levels of production lately. In his last 12 games, only three of them have been in the double digits in points. It is Trout so he can burst out at any moment so he’s still fully in play. It just has to be a little concerning that we know he’s got a finger injury as well. I like Andrelton Simmons and his floor tonight because he just doesn’t strikeout a whole lot. Both Jefry Marte and Chris Young are on the disabled list, which are normal options against lefties for the Angels. Gonzales might actually be in play given the construction of the Angels lineup right now.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons

Home Run Pick – Kyle Seager

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Giants

Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP 

5.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .299 average, .372 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .293 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

I was ready to love Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt this evening because Weaver has been a poor pitcher over the course of the first half. Then I saw that they are both $4,000 at home and I got a lot less interested. Their price is still up high from their trip to Coors Field. In a vacuum, they are fine plays and should still have really good games. I just can’t justify dropping that kind of money for their salary in cash formats. Alen Hanson and his price would be a lot more reasonable and he actually leads the team in wOBA against righty pitching.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alen Hanson

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Johnny Cueto, RHP 

0.84 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .159 average, .172 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .133 average, .223 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 43.3 fly ball rate and 22.6 hard hit rate

If you’re not going to play Verlander, one of the only other options might well be Cueto. I hate playing pitchers off the disabled list, especially when it’s a long stay. Still, the options are highly limited on this slate. Depending on if he’s on a pitch or innings limit, he could be the number two option tonight. Given the mix of park factors and Cueto’s splits, the only Cardinal I might chase would be Matt Carpenter. Even then, it’s far from an ideal match. This game might be a total fade even on a short slate.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter

Home Run Pick – Brandon Belt

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Line-Up

P – Justin Verlander 

More from FanSided

• Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions

C/1B – Max Stassi

2B – Ketel Marte

3B – Kyle Seager 

SS – Jorge Polanco

OF – Denard Span, A.J. Pollock, Wil Myers

Utility – John Ryan Murphy 

I’m grudgingly putting Verlander into the pitching spot even though I really don’t think he’s worth his price tag. The big issue comes from there being almost no other full trustworthy option. It also doesn’t help that I’ve been burnt by poor pitching the past few nights. I’m not the biggest fan of all the offensive pieces but the salary left after Verlander forces my hand. I do like the mini Seattle stack with Span and Seager. Playing two catchers might be odd but there’s no denying their stats against lefties and the price point is a huge help. Polanco showed some life yesterday and he’s still cheap so I’ll take the reasonable option at shortstop. Myers might go somewhat overlooked but even if he doesn’t he should be able to hit Miller.  Polock is one of my favorite plays on the slate and he would have been well over $4,000 in this spot before his injury. We’ll see how lineups develop through the day.

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.