Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018
Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018
When it comes to the modern day NFL, teams are prone to pass the ball more, leaving limited carries for running backs in fantasy football. Many teams have also decided it is smarter to have a two-back system rather than one true workhorse. Even if a running back is the goal-line guy and early-down back, he often times is spelled by a third-down specialist.
Atlanta has proven a high-octane offense can sustain two relevant fantasy backs, i.e. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. However, most teams aren’t the 2016 Atlanta Falcons and most players don’t have the capabilities of Freeman or Coleman.
With so many teams splitting carries, what teams should you avoid altogether at the running back position? Here is a list of the top five backfield situations to avoid this fantasy season.
Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018 – The Oakland Raiders
I love the Raiders so I’m going to be a little biased here, but with Gruden now at the helm of the franchise, I think this is the year for Carr and the Raiders offense as a whole. However, I’m not going to own any stock in Marshawn Lynch (5.12) or Doug Martin (10.11) regardless of their ADP.
When Gruden won his first and only Super Bowl in 2002 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against his former and now current team, the Oakland Raiders, the Bucs ranked 27th in rushing attempts per game. In 2005 when Gruden had his second-best win/loss record in Tampa Bay (third-best of his career), the Bucs ranked 27th in rushing attempts. Gruden knows better than anyone that if the Raiders’ have any success in 2018, it will be from the arm of Derek Carr.
Both backs are advanced in age (Lynch is 32 years old, Martin is 29), but together they should have plenty left in the tank to spit the load in Oakland 60/40 or 70/30, considering they will more than likely be relegated to first and second down duties.
Lynch rushed for 891 yards and seven touchdowns last season, ranking as the RB 24. He is currently being drafted as the RB 28. Doesn’t seem like much of a knock on a guy who looks like he will lose part of his workload in 2018.
Martin’s stock is inexpensive for the most part, but I like other players hovering around his current ADP including: Cooper Kupp (10.02), Jamison Crowder (10.03), Robby Anderson (10.06) and Derek Carr (10.07). Backs going after Martin include: Duke Johnson (11.06), Devontae Booker (11.07), Chris Carson (11.09) and even Bilal Powell (13.08).
There will be games when Lynch looks like he could be a RB1 or a high-end RB2, but those weeks will be few and far between. The upside of guys going around the same ADP will provide your team with more boom than the Raiders’ busts.
Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018 – The Detroit Lions
The last time the Lions had a 1,000-yard rusher lined up in the backfield, he wore the name Bush on the back of his jersey.
The year was 2013.
The year is currently 2018 and Detroit, along with franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, are still trying to find the answer to the Lions’ backfield woes. Let’s face it, second-round pick Ameer Abdullah just hasn’t cut it. His best statistical rushing season came during his rookie year when he racked up 597 yards.
But wait, Detroit went out and got bruiser LeGarrette Blount to carry the rock. What about him? And what about Theo Riddick? He is a good PPR back.
Blount is 31, has just two 1,000-yard seasons over his seven-year career, and scored just two touchdowns last season on 173 attempts. After the Eagles acquired Jay Ajayi before the trade deadline last season, Blount saw his carries go from an average of 14.28 per game in the first-half of the season to just 9.125 after the Ajayi transaction.
Theo Riddick is still fairly young at 27, but he is still riding on the coattails of his 2015 campaign that saw him catch 80 passes for 697 yards. Last season Riddick caught 53 balls for 444 yards, ranking him just out of the top ten in terms of running back receptions in 2017.
Riddick also finished just outside of the top 25 backs in terms of fantasy points scored, ranking 26th according to ESPN.com. Backs who finished the year with fewer points such as Tarik Cohen, Isaiah Crowell, Kenyan Drake, Joe Mixon, Jay Ajayi and Derrick Henry are ready to make the jump, pushing Riddick even further down the food chain.
Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018 – The Cleveland Browns
Maybe I should say this now, don’t avoid the Browns backfield if you are in a dynasty league. Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson are great options.
However, for the sake of the 2018 season, the Browns backfield is too crowded. Johnson is easily the Browns best option when it comes to fantasy production in 2018, but he will likely be a third-down specialist/gadget player. While he will get his fair share of targets and even some carries along the way, when I am drafting, my starting back needs a stable workload.
Newly acquired Carlos Hyde is used to seeing his fair share of carries after being on the field the third-most snaps among all running backs last season, according to Fantasy Pros. Hyde will have to get used to having a Jekyll by the name of Nick Chubb fighting him for carries every step of the way this season.
Chubb is a more than capable runner with the physical tools to be the future early-down back for the Browns. Chubb collected three 1,000 yard rushing seasons in his four years at the University of Georgia, finishing as the Dogs second all-time leading rusher in program history. He also finished as the second all-time leading rusher in SEC history.
In his rookie season I’m afraid that’s all Chubb will be, second best. With Hyde signed to a three-year $15 million plus deal, there is no way Chubb will take sole possession of first and second down work early in the season. Sure, Chubb’s resume is impressive and he may be a great dynasty asset, but in 2018, he can wait.
Should Hyde go down, Chubb could find himself a top 15 back. As it currently stands. I stay away from Cleveland’s backfield situation. Selecting Johnson in the later rounds won’t be a bad move, but if you have to plug him in and play, you might not be happy with the results week to week.
Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018 – The Indianapolis Colts
To say the Colts are not a running team would be an understatement. The last time the Indianapolis Colts ranked in the top half of the league in rushing attempts per season was in 2005 with Edgerinn James. Even then they just made the cut with the 16th most rushing attempts.
When one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time (Peyton Manning) lines up behind center for your team every single game for a decade-plus, the need to run the ball is pushed to the background.
When Jim Irsay drafted Andrew Luck to be the heir of his franchise, the offense appeared to be headed in the same pass-first direction. Then came Luck’s injury which he is still currently battling through. It looks as if Luck will be back by the start of the regular season. If he is, look for the trend of the Colts finishing at the bottom of the rushing yards list to continue.
Marlon Mack appears to be the early favorite to land the lead back job, but he doesn’t have much of a track record. Last season as a fourth-round rookie, Mack saw just 93 carries for 358 yards, an average of 3.8 yards per attempt. Those 3.8 yards per attempt would have ranked Mack tied for 32nd in the league if he had the appropriate amount of carries to qualify.
Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins will have something to say about Mack landing the lead back role. According to ESPN Fantasy Analyst Mike Clay, Wilkins has potential to see the most carries out of the Colts backfield. But according to some writers, Hines is being compared to the Saints rookie phenom Alvin Kamara.
I get it. It’s camp, it’s still early, we need to see how hard these guys work and what the coaches say. However, with the murky situation as it currently sits in the Colts backfield, I will stay away. Maybe draft some of these backs in dynasty for upside, but in a re-draft league, it won’t be worth your time.
If one of these backs does take over, it will likely be midway through or towards the back-half of the season. Also, the Colts offensive line ranked 25th in the league in 2017 according to Pro Football Focus.
Fantasy Football Backfields to Avoid in 2018 – The New York Jets
Let’s face it, the Jets are just plain terrible. Over the past five seasons, the Jets have one winning season and one season at .500. The past two seasons New York went a combined 10-22. Also over the past two seasons, the Jets have had a different team-leading rusher. Last season Bilal Powell led Gang Green with 772 yards rushing and five touchdowns.
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Chris Ivory was the last 1,000-yard rusher for the Jets in 2015. To address the backfield issues and try to help first-round pick Sam Darnold get used to the offense, the Jets brought in former Cleveland Brown Isaiah Crowell. The good news with Crowell is, over the course of his four-year career, he has been healthy for all 16 games every season.
The bad news? Crowell has never topped 1,000 yards rushing in his career. Last season was the best yet for the Alabama State product, as he rushed for 853 yards on 206 carries, making him the 31st fantasy running back in 2017.
Crowell isn’t going to improve much on his 2017 production even if he is the lead rusher in New York. With the capable Powell still around and with the flashes Elijah McGuire showed in limited fashion last season, it’s going to be hard for Crowell to see more than his career high 206 carries. Not to mention the Jets finished 30th as an offensive line in 2017 according to Pro Football Focus.
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