MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, July 5th Evening Slates Quick Hits

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, July 5th Evening Slates

Welcome to a Thursday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Thursday’s evening slates!

DraftKings MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, July 5th Evening Slates Quick Hits

With a modestly-sized slate Thursday, there isn’t exactly an abundance of bargain pitching options. However,

Jeremy Hellickson

does the trick for me, especially considering the fact he’s at home. The right-hander sports a 1.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .224 BAA and .284 wOBA over the 16.1 frames encompassing his three home starts. The Marlins sport a bloated 24.7 percent strikeout rate against righties on the road over the last month as well, including a mammoth 30.4 percent figure within the last two weeks. Moreover, Hellickson hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start all season, including two or fewer in eight of those outings.

More from DFS

As far as bargain bats, we’ll stay right with the Nationals-Marlins game to start, as Miami will send out rookie right-hander Pablo Lopez to the mound Thursday. Lopez has allowed a massive .545 wOBA to right-handed hitters over a very modest 14-batter sample, and a 4.50 ERA against that handedness at the Triple-A level. Lopez does have some swing-and-miss ability, so he’s not a pushover by any means. However, he’s a rookie making a road start against a team with some potent bats, and there’s also the matter of Marlins relievers having allowed a 5.89 ERA, .347 wOBA (including 19 extra-base hits), 22.8 percent line-drive rate and 40.9 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters on the road over the last two months. I’d give all Nationals value bats —Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, Matt Adams and Adam Eaton among them — consideration.

There could be some post-4th fireworks at Comerica Park with Yovani Gallardo and Matthew Boyd on the mound for the Rangers and Tigers, respectively. Gallardo has actually improved over his previous outing in each of his last two starts, but he’s had trouble against both handedness of hitter (.538 wOBA allowed to righty hitters, .427 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters) over his limited road samples this season. Taking a look at the projected Tigers lineup, the bargain hitters that match up the best against Gallardo’s low-90s fastball include Jeimer Candelario (.490 wOBA), Jose Iglesias (.361 wOBA), Niko Goodrum (.513 wOBA), Victor Martinez (.380 wOBA) and John Hicks (.343 wOBA). With the exception of Hicks, all of those players also perform very well against another Gallardo trademark — the fastball sinker.

Meanwhile, Boyd is an interesting case, as he’s actually been a completely different pitcher in his home park. The lefty has yielded just a .184 average over 41.1 innings at Comerica, but he’s also coming off a month of June in which he generated a 6.32 ERA and allowed a .355 wOBA (including six homers) over 31.1 innings. As a hedge, I’d consider Elvis Andrus (.400 average over 10 at-bats against Boyd), Adrian Beltre (if he’s back in the lineup, .400 average over 10 at-bats against Boyd) and Robinson Chirinos (.429 average, including two homers, over seven at-bats against Boyd). Jurickson Profar (.363 wOBA versus left-handed pitching) is also certainly a value option wherever he may be priced reasonably enough.

The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin has mostly been effective this season, but there’s one Atlanta bargain bat I’d particularly consider if he’s in the lineup — Tyler Flowers. The catcher owns an .800 average over five plate appearances versus the Milwaukee right-hander, and a .341 wOBA and 39.0 percent hard contact rate against the slider Chacin so often deploys. He’s even better against Chacin’s other trademark offering, the fastball sinker, a pitch against which Flowers owns a .359 wOBA and 47.6 percent hard contact rate.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, July 5th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

The Orioles’

Andrew Cashner

has been much more effective of late, and he’s been a better pitcher overall on the road. However, he’s been battered by righty bats on the road for a .440 wOBA and has allowed a 30.4 percent line-drive rate to them outside of Camden Yards as well, numbers that are hard to ignore. I’d give value bats like

Eduardo Escobar

Mitch Garver

and

Jorge Polanco

consideration. It’s also worth noting that lefty bats

Joe Mauer

and

Max Kepler

both have brief but successful histories against Cashner, and that the Orioles bullpen has been bad against both sides of the plate on the road (.388 wOBA allowed to righty bats, .386 wOBA allowed to lefty bats) over the last month.

More from FanSided

White Sox starter Carlos Rodon has allowed production to both sides of the plate thus far, so he makes for a good target at Minute Maid Park. The one issue is that there’s typically few Astros bats that are truly value-priced, but the same-handed Josh Reddick (who hits lefties very well), Max Stassi (if he’s back in the lineup) and Yuli Gurriel all qualify for consideration.

D-Backs starter Shelby Miller has traditionally struggled versus left-handed hitters, but he’s been hit hard by both sides of the plate thus far. Therefore, I’d look at Padres bargain hitters from both sides of the plate, including Christian Villanueva, Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer, Manuel Margot and Wil Myers, all players who also hit Miller’s mid-90s fastball very well.

Padres starter Eric Lauer is also a target, having allowed a .374 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road. The usual suspects in terms of Arizona right-handed bargain bats are in play — Nick Ahmed, John Ryan Murphy, Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock (wherever affordable).

Finally, the Cardinals’ Luke Weaver is coming off a forgettable June (6.75 ERA over 30.2 innings) and has allowed a .373 wOBA (including eight homers), 25.4 percent line-drive rate and 36.2 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters overall. Joe Panik, Allen Hanson and Pablo Sandoval all come to mind as Giants bargain suggestions as a result.

Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests tonight and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!