DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, July 6

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a very large 14 game slate on tap so let’s dive right in.

Wow, did last night’s DFS MLB slate escalate quickly. I mean, things got way out of hand. It would have been more productive to watch Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy than play last night’s slate for me. My value pitcher in Max Fried got worked over and I didn’t have any piece of the 14-12 football score in the Nationals game. It was U-G-L-Y.

In an effort to keep things fresh and expand this column to be as helpful as possible, I’m adding in pitch type data from FanGraphs. If you haven’t seen it, this is the link to the Houston Astros page about pitch type data. This is just an effort to identify good plays based on what the opposing pitcher throws. Just like all the other stats, it’s not gospel. It’s just something to weigh into your analysis. Let’s get to work!

DFS MLB – Marlins at Nationals

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .248 average, .360 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 46.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .316 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 42.7 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

The past two starts are a little encouraging or Straily but I’m still not convinced he can handle the meat of the Nationals order on the road. The weakness for him has been the lefties so far and the Nationals have good lefty hitters even if they don’t put it all together on a consistent basis. You can definitely go the route of a full Washington stack because Straily has given up plenty of bombs to both sides of the plate. The best play by pitch data might well be Matt Adams if he’s in he lineup. He’s the best Nationals hitter against the fastball and the slider, which is the main two pitchers for Straily. In addition, he has the highest ISO and wOBA against righties of active Nats hitters. Juan Soto and Bryce Harper smash the fastball but aren’t very good against sliders this season. If you go with the stack, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Adam Eaton are all in play as well. The biggest question is do they have any runs left after the epic comeback and two touchdowns they put up last night.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Matt Adams

Secondary Options – Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Adam Eaton

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.77 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .255 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .328 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Despite the fact the the Marlins offense hung a massive number last night, I’m still not that interested because there’s a lefty on the mound tonight. If there’s ever a bounce back spot for Gonzalez after five straight poor starts, at home against the Marlins might be it. Miami is an enticing matchup for any lefty pitcher, although metrics like average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ look slightly better on the road as a whole. That’s not terribly surprising since they play in such a poor hitter’s park. Still, the highest wOBA against lefties belongs to Brian Anderson at .345. The highest ISO on the team against southpaws is Derek Dietrich at .196. None of these numbers or hitters should frighten you that badly. I usually can’t bring myself to play Marlins hitters unless it’s Justin Bour or J.T. Realmuto and neither seems to be a great play this evening. I might take a flyer on Gonzalez even though I usually steer clear of him as well. The matchup is one of the best he can get.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, Brian Anderson

Home Run Pick – Matt Adams

Phillies at Pirates

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

4.66 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 28.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .358 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .292 wOBA, 31.2 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 29.8 hard hit rate

I want to love Pivetta because I think he’s a talented pitcher but I’m not sure this is the spot for him. He’s scuffled pretty badly with lefties and the Pirates just so happen to have one that is red hot right now in Gregory Polanco. During the past 14 days, the man known as El Coffee is hitting .324 with a massive .351 ISO and Pivetta is giving up a lot of fly balls to lefties. We’re early in the process but Polanco at $2,700 seems an absolute steal with all these factors working for him. With Pivetta throwing a fastball or curve 83 percent of the time, that seems like something we can focus on.

The upside might not be special but Colin Moran is a wonderful punt play at third base if you’re looking to spend up at starting pitcher tonight(hint: you should). He’s just $2,300 and he does possess a little bit of pop in a good spot. Corey Dickerson and Austin Meadows round out the lefties that hit fastballs and curveballs positively, but Meadows has been some kind of cold since his hot debut.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Corey Dickerson, Austin Meadows, Josh Bell

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 17.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .308 wOBA, 11.8 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 25.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .298 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Williams is always a weird pitcher on the slate. He’s really never good enough to actually play but he’s just good enough to throw quality starts and be annoying if you target hitters against him. I’m still siding with the Phillies in this spot and I’m looking towards the lefties for sure. Williams pounds fastballs in there over 70 percent of the time and Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana stands out against fastballs this year. I’d probably rather play Santana since he’s cheaper and has more power. He also strikes out less and walks more so there’s a tad more safety there. Given the fact that Williams has done better against righty hitters, I’ll probably not play Rhys Hoskins unless its a stack. However, he is far and away the best fastball hitter on the Phillies. I also think I’ll leave Odubel Herrera out because he ranks a distant fourth against fastballs. This two aren’t terrible plays, they just likely won’t be a priority.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Odubel Herrera

Home Run Pick – Gregory Polanco

DFS MLB – Yankees at Blue Jays

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP 

5.44 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .324 wOBA, 18.9 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .357 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

In some ways, Sonny Gray is exceedingly easy to breakdown. You can’t touch him in Yankee Stadium but on the road it becomes a different story. Here’s the home/road split so far this year.

Home – 8.25 ERA, .415 wOBA, 14.2 K rate

Away – 3.28 ERA, .275 wOBA, 24.7 K rate

That’s about as dramatic a difference as you can have. Gray actually pitched in Toronto about a month ago and went for 52 FanDuel points so color me interested here at a price tag of $7,700. FanGraphs classifies one of Gray’s pitches as a cutter and the only two players who profile well against the cutter and fastball are Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Toronto has a 42.1 percent groundball rate against righties as a team and I’m not sure how many hitters I’d be looking at here. The Blue Jays carry a top 10 strikeout rate as well so I think I would limit my exposure to the aforementioned Morales or Smoak and maybe you could mix in a Curtis Granderson or Randall Grichuk. Maybe I miss out on the Jays crushing Gray, but I’m much more inclined to play the yankees pitcher here.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Randall Grichuk

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .244 average, .288 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .323 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Even away from Yankee Stadium, the Yankees still rank inside the top 11 against righty pitching in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. So good luck with all that Gaviglio because you might need it. The biggest knock against the Yankees is they do not hit the slider well, and Gaviglio throws it about a quarter of the time. The issue is he throws the fastball about 60 percent of the time and New York mashes that pitch. Plenty of players will go to Aaron Judge but his home/road splits are about as astronomical as Gray. That’s been the case for his career as his average is under .240 and the wOBA is .345. That’s not a player I want to pay a premium for. Id might stick to players like Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius and Miguel Andujar. Hicks has been on a tear and Andujar is the team’s best slider hitter by a lot. He’s also one of the cheaper ways to get a piece of the Yankees that you can trust, unlike Greg Bird.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Options –Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird

Home Run Pick – Miguel Andujar

DFS MLB – A’s at Indians

A’s Probable Starter – Paul Blackburn, RHP 

6.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .292 average, .327 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .273 average, .332 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 23.7 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard hit rate

Blackburn just faced this Indians team and I’m sure plenty of people who played the Indians hitters walked away highly annoyed because Blackburn controlled them for juts one earned run. His ERA looks awful but he’s had to bad outings and there good ones, so things are a bit skewed. he throws the slider about a third of the time and the best hitter for the Indians against that pitch is Francisco Lindor. What’s interesting here is both Lindor and Jose Ramirez will bat lefty. Lindor is the third highest rated hitter against sliders and Ramirez is first in baseball against fastballs but a substantial margin. Both hitters also have an ISO of at least .300 and a wOBA of .380 against righties.

There is nothing that profiles well for Blackburn in this spot and the Indians just saw him. I don’t think he fools them again this time around and I’d leave just a little bit towards Ramirez for the high end spends. Michael Brantley would be in play as well but the cheapest play that really makes sense is Yonder Alonso, who rates well against the main two pitches and hits left-handed.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Options –Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kippnis

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

4.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .300 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .292 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 36.3 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

This side of the game is a total GPP play from any side. Carrasco is coming off a long layoff and will almost certainly be on some type of pitch count. He’s dominated the A’s in his career against their active hitters with a strikeout rate over 40 percent. The issue is he’s the fourth highest salaried pitcher on the slate at $10,500, which is patently absurd for pitcher who’s missed the past month with a 4.24 ERA. He’s not in play but I’m not going hard after A’s hitters either. Matt Olson is the one A that truly stands out with his .258 ISO against righties and due to the fact that he hits sliders very well and Carrasco throws that pitch 26.5 percent of the time. The fastball percentage is under 50 for the Indians righty but Jed Lowire is the best hitter against that pitch type and he’s been hot lately, sporting an ISO over .300 the past 14 days. Khris Davis is always a home run threat but nothing statistically jumps off the page.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Home Run Pick – Yonder Alonso

DFS MLB – Rays at Mets

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

Ryne Stanek is the “starter” but we don’t care about that. He’s going to max out at two innings in all likelihood and it appears that Andrew Kittredge will get the bulk of the innings. Through his 16 innings this season, he’s pitched to an ERA over 9.00 and has been getting utterly destroyed by righty hitters. He’s totally controlled lefties so we might be heading to Todd Frazier and Jose Bautista. The only two factors that scare me just a little bit are Kittredge throws his slider almost 55 percent of the time and has a 54 percent ground ball rate. I’m not trying to say the Mets can’t overcome a ground baller righty pitcher(for a totally random example, a pitcher like Marcus Stroman) but there are factors that don’t totally lineup for us here. Brandon Nimmo is the best slider hitter on the team and I think I would limit myself to him or Joey Bats, who has a .404 wOBA and a .224 ISO against righty pitching. Nimmo is slightly better in both those metrics, he’s just a lefty hitter.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Bautista, Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options – Todd Frazier Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.84 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .284 wOBA, 29.3 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 26.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .211 wOBA, 33.7 K rate, 29.6 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

The slate is just way too big to mess with the Rays hitters tonight. If you want to cross your fingers and hope with a lefty, you can take a stab at Jake Bauers or hope Kevin Kiermaier runs into one as a cheap lead off option, you’re braver than I am. deGrom is an elite play but he’s not the highest priced pitcher on the slate even though he’s $12,000. In all honesty, I’m probably going to play the more expensive player who’s only $500 more expensive if I’m spending up at pitcher. The righty has been a little sub-par the past two starts and it’s fair to wonder if the pending trade rumors are in his head a little bit.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers, Kevin Kiermaier

Home Run Pick – Wilmer Flores

DFS MLB – Rangers at Tigers

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP 

4.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .331 wOBA, 13.2 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .341 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate and 47.1 hard hit rate

If you’ve been around here for awhile, you know what the story is. Big Bart is a borderline circus sideshow at this point and he throws a “fastball” around 80 percent of the time. It’s not much faster than I can throw a ball at an average of 87 MPH so the pitch data for Tigers hitters need to be taken with a grain of salt. Since Colon is still capable of being kind of moderately effective, I’m going to stick with just two Tigers hitters and that’s Jeimer Candelario and Nicholas Castellanos. They’re the two best hitters by wOBA and they rate well against the fastball and the changeup which is about all that Colon has left. You want hitters that can take advantage of Colon’s 1.97 HR/9 and those two can certainly do it with ISO’s over .195. One player that I might just punt with is Ronny Rodriguez. He’s minimum priced and had three hits yesterday. The Detroit lineup as a good bit worse against righties so I think I’ll mostly pass on this side of the game.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jeimer Candelario, Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Ronny Rodriguez

Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 

3.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .266 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .310 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 49.4 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

This could potentially be a spot where Zimmermann is better than most think he’s going to be. He’s been a solid pitcher since returning from the disabled list, the Rangers strikeout at the third highest rate in baseball and Zimmermann has really limited the damage against lefty hitters. He throws a fastball or slider about 80 percent of the time and there’s really only one really good fastball hitter on the Rangers. Shin-soo Choo is far and away the best Ranger by that metric but is a lefty hitter. One possibly interesting option could be Jurickson Profar as he is the best mix of fastball and slider hitter for the Rangers. Zimmermann has pitched 17 innings since he’s returned from the disabled list and has given up a total of four earned runs and just one in his past two starts. Texas can put up a big number but they’re best served as a GPP option.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Jurickson Profar

Secondary Options – Robinson Chirinos, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo

Home Run Pick – Shin-soo Choo

DFS MLB – Braves at Brewers

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP 

2.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 29.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .181 average, .292 wOBA, 28.0 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .186 average, .228 wOBA, 31.0 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

This might be one of the truest risk/reward options on the slate as Foltynewicz has shown his considerable upside all season long. He draws a Milwaukee squad that ranks fourth worst in strikeout rate against righties but when they make contact, they punish the pitcher. They also rank no lower than 14th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against righties and it’s in the top 11 for everything except wRC+. The biggest issue for Foltynewicz is he’s almost surely not going six frames. He’s only accomplished that feat five times in his 16 starts so you need a lot of strikeouts and virtually no runs given up in five innings to pay off. If you want to go with the Brew Crew hitters, Jesus Aguilar is the perfect fit by pitch data(he smokes fastballs and rates well against the slider, which make up about 85 percent of the pitches for Foltynewicz), and by wOBA(.390) and ISO(.291). Eric Thames and Christian Yelich are options as well but I’m siding with the Braves righty here. I’ll have a couple shares in GPP’s.

Brewers Hitters to Target

Eltie Options – Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Eric Thames, Christian Yelich

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

2.28 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 37.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .184 average, .269 wOBA, 35.1 K rate, 37.9 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .067 average, .125 wOBA, 40.8 K rate, 58.3 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

The last start for Peralta might not look good on the surface as he surrendered three runs in five innings at Cincinnati but this young man showed some mental toughness in that start. He got blitzed for all three runs in the first inning and then shut the door for the next four frames. The bad news for Peralta is he’s almost exclusively a fastball/curveball pitcher right now and Freddie Freeman ranks very highly against those two pitches. Nick Markakis does as well and the one player I might consider no matter what right now is Ozzie Albies. The young stud continues to be on a tear and I think he could hit anyone right now. I’m not thinking that Peralta gets beat up here but it is possible. The Braves strikeout the fifth least in the league against righty pitching and we might see what happen if Peralta isn’t striking out everyone in sight.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies

Home Run Pick – Nick Markakis

DFS MLB – Orioles at Twins

Orioles Probable Starter – Dylan Bundy, RHP 

3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 27.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .296 average, .365 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 46.7 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .180 average, .272 wOBA, 32.2 K rate, 45.9 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Bundy has only been gone about two weeks but this spot has to scare you a little bit if you’re thinking about playing him. His weakness has been lefty bats and the twins have at least five of their top six hitters that could bat lefty. Eddie Rosario has to be the first hitter we go to as he leads the team in wOBA,  is second in ISO and is the best hitter against the fastball/slider combination. Those are the two pitches that Bundy throws the most and if the side is on, Bundy could have a really solid game. If it’s not, he could be gone by the third inning. Logan Morrison and Eduardo Escobar both have to be up there as tournament options as well. Escobar actually leads the team in ISO and they’ll both be on the left side of the plat in this matchup. I think I’m going to see how Bundy pitches tonight before using him again and the trio of Escobar, Rosario and Morrison would be the three hitters I would likely use.

Twins Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Secondary Options – Eduardo Escobar

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

5.49 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .384 wOBA, 14.7 K rate, 18.5 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .321 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 31.7 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

I’m saying this with a good deal of trepidation but I think you can actually consider playing Lance Lynn as a tournament option. Yes, he just got lit up by the Cubs but this Baltimore squad is not nearly that good. The Orioles carry the worst strikeout rate on the road against righty pitching and in the past two weeks, they’re 20th in runs, 26th in wOBA, 26th in wRC+ and 29th in average. They just cannot be trusted right now and the best hitter against the fastball is Mark Trumbo. I don’t have a huge issue playing him tonight(I played him last night so guaranteed dong tonight) but I really wish the Orioles had a trustworthy lefty. Seeing as how they don’t, I probably won’t have very much exposure to this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lynn was at least respectable.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Trumbo

Secondary Options – Manny Machado

Home Run Pick – Logan Morrison

DFS MLB – White Sox at Astros

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .321 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 51.5 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .294 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

I’m not bold enough to suggest playing Lopez in Houston as the Astros can hang a big number on any pitcher at any time. So, which Astros should we look towards to play against him? We want the hitters that are good against righty pitching and can hit the fastball/slider combo because they make up about 80 percent of the pitches Lopez throws.

The hitter that really checks those boxes and he’s left handed is Josh Reddick. His wOBA and ISO are fine but not great but he’s the teams second best hitter against the fastball/slide combo and he’s about $2,000 cheaper than Alex Bregman, who’s number one. In addition, he’s white hot over the past two weeks with a .400 average and .444 wOBA. The best active fastball hitter is Evan Gattis but he struggles mightily with the slider. The .250 ISO against righty pitching is still awfully tempting. Jose Altuve hit a home run last night but they’ve been few and far between this season.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Josh Reddick, Alex Bregman

Secondary Options – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Yuli Gurriel

Astros Probable STarter – Lance McCullers, RHP 

3.55 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 25.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .256 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 28.5 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .319 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 25.7 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

I really don’t know what to do with McCullers tonight. I lean towards playing him since he does represent a savings over the bigger name aces at the top. After all, the White Sox are the fifth easiest team to strikeout in baseball and that’s what we want. However, in 33 carer at-bats, the Sox have an xwOBA(expected wOBA) of .394 against McCullers and the K rate is down at 12 percent. If you got this type of numbers tonight, you’re going to be cursing his $11,300 price tag. Even though the price is way up there, he does represent enough of a discount he can be considered if you adore the rest of your lineup. I’m still likely to go into the tier above him and I’m not playing any Chicago hitters on a slate this size.

White Sox Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada

Home Run Pick – Josh Reddick

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Royals

Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP 

2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 36.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .215 wOBA, 36.5 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .248 wOBA, 36.1 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

I’m struggling to remember a higher priced player than Sale at any point this year and coming up blank. Even though the Royals don’t strike out a ton in general, it does jump up to 21 percent against lefties. Sale has very good career number against Kansas City and this is a smash spot for him. I’m giving heavy consideration to playing him in cash games this evening because it seems like the safest 45 or more points on the board. If I can find enough value, this becomes a much easier play. I will Kindly say “Good day, sir” to any Royals hitter because I don’t want any of them tonight.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Royals Probable Starter – Jason Hammel, RHP 

5.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .251 average, .321 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 47.4 fly ball rate and 47.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .335 average, .373 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 33.2 fly ball rate and 44.7 hard hit rate

If you’re not paying up at pitcher and plan to spend on offense, one of the first stops have to be Mookie Betts and/or J.D. Martinez against a terrible reverse splits righty. Both Sox sluggers have a wOBA over .435, and ISO over .305 and they destroy the fastball which is Hammel’s main pitch. Where Betts has the edge is he carries a lower strikeout percentage and he’s much better against the slider, which Hammel throws about 37 percent of the time. This is a smash spot for these two and I wouldn’t be surprised if they both hit bombs tonight. Both have been quite study the past two weeks and my next favorite play is Xander Bogaerts.  Not only is he rock solid against the pitch combo, he’s got a wOBA of .370 and an ISO of .252 against righty pitching this season. Rafeal Devers is also just far too cheap for this matchup. Hammel might not be long for this start.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi

Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both go yard in the same inning.

DFS MLB – Padres at Diamondbacks

Padres Probable Starter – Joey Lucchesi, LHP 

3.26 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 25.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .217 average, .264 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 9.7 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .322 wOBA,  24.3 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard hit rate

One of the more surprising results from last night came from this Arizona team who couldn’t figure out a way to hit Eric Lauer. They get another crack at a lefty tonight and Lucchesi looks a lot better on the surface than Lauer did. We’re basically talking about a lot of the same names as we did yesterday – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and John Ryan Murphy all grade out as string plays from a wOBA and ISO standpoint. Lucchesi throws a fastball/changeup combo and the best two hitters against that combo are Goldy and… Daniel Descalso. He does come with a high strikeout rate but his ISO against lefties is .286 and the wOBA is a respectable .340. He’s a fine salary saver and is far and away the second best fastball hitter in Arizona.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Decalso

Secondary Options – A.J. Pollock, John Ryan Murphy, Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

5.07 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .365 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 21.5 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .332 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

I highly doubt I can pull the trigger on him on a single pitcher site but Godley might be able to squeeze out a good start this evening. The obvious reason is “because Padres” but it goes even deeper than that. The Arizona righty leans on the fastball/cutter combo and mixes in a healthy does of the curveball(39.5 percent). As a team, San Diego is the worst fastball team, middle of the pack against the cutter and bottom five against the curve. Even on a micro level of just the individual player, there isn’t much that stands outs. Eric Hosmer is a rock solid option against the fast bball and has a .351 wOBA against righties but he’s poorly rated against the curve. I think this is a Godley or bust style spot.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Hsmer, Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski

Home Run Pick – Daniel Descalso

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Angels

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 27.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .328 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .197 average, .266 wOBA, 32.7 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

If you wanted to use Maeda tonight, I don’t really think it’s the worst play you can make. He throws a pretty varied arsenal so I don’t think the pitch data is going to be the way to go on this one. The leader in ISO and wOBA is actually Shohei Ohtani as he edges Mike Trout in those two categories. $3,500 is likely too pricey if you pay up for pitching but he’s still well in play. Trout and Andrelton Simmons would probably be my limit as far as cash settings but lefties Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena would both be great tournament options. Maeda isn’t a player I love attacking because he’s a good pitcher. I don’t always play him because I’m always terrified he’s going to leave his start early.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

3.71 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate(17.1 IP)

Vs LHH – .357 average, .411 wOBA, 9.7 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 48.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .300 wOBA, 36.4 K rate, 36.0 fly ball rate and 52.0 hard hit rate

Oh look, it’s another day that I like the Dodgers as a stacking option and will be a late night hammer. It must be a day that ends in Y or it just means I’ve been chatting with Brian way too much. We’ll seek out the approval of the #WestCoastWhisperer during the day but Pena throws his fastball almost 57 percent of the time and that will likely get him killed against the Dodgers. They have at least six hitters that rate very well against fastballs this season and that doesn’t even include Cody Bellinger. The one chink in the armor might be they don’t hit the curveball well but the damage could still be done. The cheapest way to get a good option from this offense is Yasmani Grandal who is $3,200 on FanDuel. Pena could be one of the worst pitchers on the slate if his splits hold up.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Options – Justin Turner, Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor

Home Run Pick – Shohei Ohtani

DFS MLB – Rockies at Mariners

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

5.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .285 average, .352 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .325 wOBA, 28.7 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

People might just look at the ERA and WHIP and head towards a hitter like Nelson Cruz but I think I’m going with the power lefty in the lineup and that’s Kyle Seager. Marquez has given up 10 home runs to lefties so far this season and Seager handles the fastball well. The concern here is the Mariners as a squad aren’t very good against the curveball, which is the main secondary pitch for Marquez. I don’t have a huge problem with Cruz it’s just Marquez has been worse against lefties. Jean Segura represents the best bet via pitch data, has a .347 wOBA and carries stolen base upside. Maybe I’m wrong, but this isn’t a full on Mariners stack tonight. Marquez has been so much better on the road(the ERA is 5.17 lower on the road) and that has to be noted for tonight.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jean Segura, Kyle Seager

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz, Dee Gordon, Denard Span

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.11 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .337 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

vs RHH – .272 average, .329 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

If you wanted to get really nuts, you could actually consider King Felix tonight. He’s managed to get things figured out in the month of June and while he normally doesn’t have a ton of upside, the Rockies are an awful offense outside of Coors Field. Against righty pitching on the road, the Rockies rank 22nd or worse in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. They also carry a top 12 strikeout rate. I think the only two hitters I would consider would be Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. King Felix throws the change and the curve an awful lot and both of those hitters rate very well against those pitchers. Past that, this side of the game will mostly be an avoid for me.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Giants

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .193 average, .256 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 58.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .183 average, .255 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate

I usually say that on theses big slates, you basically have to eliminate at least a couple games to start to narrow the player pool. This might be one of those games because there isn’t the most amount of fantasy goodness in this one on paper. I will say I might be willing to go back to Brandon Belt or Brandon Crawford tonight because the price magically dropped overnight and they’re back to playable levels after the Coors Field series. Belt is definitely the better play via the pitch data. Cant throws a lot of fastballs and changeups and Belt does well against both of those pitches. Crawford isn’t good against the change so that gives me a little pause. Belt carries a .415 wOBA and .273 ISO against righty pitching.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Belt

Secondary Options –Brandon Crawford, Alen Hanson

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP 

3.16 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .334 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .310 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Rodriguez throws a bunch of breaking and off-speed stuff so it’s little harder to get a bead on the pitch data. The splits are also pretty even to go along with his Stone Cold ERA so even though the Cards went nuts last night, I’d be lying if I really knew where to go. I think I might just stick with Matt Carpenter and/or Jose Martinez. Like I said, this game isn’t very interesting compared to so many other spots and I’m not going to shoehorn anyone in.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez

Home Run Pick – Marcell Ozuna

DFS MLB – Sample Lineup for FanDuel

P – Chris Sale

C/1B – Matt Adams

2B – Ronny Rodriguez

3B – Rafael Devers  

SS – Nick Ahmed 

OF – Josh Reddick, Gregory Polanco, Denard Span

Utility – Max Muncy 

When I first saw the price for Sale, I really wasn’t sure if I’d be able to find enough value to make things work and feel good about it. Things aren’t quite as bad as I thought because Rodriguez at second base is a huge help. He may well give us a zero but that can happen with the highest priced player on the slate. Adams had a big game yesterday and Straily doesn’t scare me in the least. Getting a price of the Boston offense for such a cheap price seems like a good idea with Devers. The outfield is a bunch of guys that have a little bit of upside because I want to afford Max Muncy. He’s been a world destroyer against fastballs for the past month and the spot is glorious tonight.

The Core – Josh Reddick, Rafael Devers, some type of Dodgers left exposure

Stacks to Consider – Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox

Pitching Tiers

High End – Chris Sale, Lance McCullers, Jacob deGrom

Mid-Range – Mike Foltynewicz, Zack Godley

Punts – Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn

Next: 14 Biggest MLB Brawls Ever

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.