Fansided

MLB DFS Bargain Bin-Friday, July 6th Evening Slates Quick Hits

By Juan Carlos Blanco

SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 21: Wil Myers #4 of the San Diego Padres is congratulated after scoring during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies at PETCO Park on September 21, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 21: Wil Myers #4 of the San Diego Padres is congratulated after scoring during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies at PETCO Park on September 21, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 6th Evening Slates

Welcome to a Friday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
  • This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Friday’s evening slates!

DFS MLB
DFS MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 6th Evening Slates 

Bargain Pitcher- Sonny Gray, NYY at TOR

As can often be the case, finding a bargain pitcher Friday is a bit of a challenge. Felix Pena of the Angels is an interesting choice, but he’s yet to go more than five innings and could therefore offer limited return. German Marquez has been pretty good at times on the road, but he’s taken his share of lumps as well and is difficult to trust against a talented Mariners lineup. Dan Straily also has his moments when he’s away from his home park, but after the Nationals offensive explosion yesterday, I’m not entire comfortable.

After much debate, I land on one Sonny Gray of the Yankees, a name that undoubtedly elicits more than a fair share of groans from those who’ve rostered him this season. However, when looking deeper, the majority of the pain he’s caused has come when he’s taken the hill at Yankee Stadium. Fewer pitchers likely have more dramatic home/road splits than Gray, who’s been downright impressive in almost all of his road starts, including against the same Blue Jays squad he’ll face Friday. Gray stymied Toronto to the tune of eight scoreless, two-hit innings on June 6 at Rogers Centre, an outing during which he also racked up eight strikeouts. He also faced them in his season debut back on April 1, and although he went just four innings, he gave up just one run while striking out eight as well.

Gray boasts a 3.28 ERA, .275 wOBA allowed, 3.50 xFIP and .226 BAA across 46.2 road innings, a span during which he’s also allowed just two homers. He’s also compiled between six and eight strikeouts in five of his last seven outings, with four of those tallies having come on the road. The Blue Jays haven’t been inept against righties by any stretch, but they do sport a 22.0 percent strikeout rate against that handedness over the last month of play, and the one player that has a solid track record against Gray — Josh Donaldson — is on the disabled list.

It goes without saying that this play comes with a fair share of risk given the way Gray’s been blown up at times, but again, that’s only truly happened once on the road, and in Fenway Park to boot. Given his prior track record against this lineup and the potential that always exists for excellent run support from the Yankees offense, he’s worth a roll of the dice if you’re paying down at a pitcher spot Friday.

ALSO CONSIDER: Jordan Zimmermann, DET vs. TEX

FanDuel MLB
FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 6th Evening Slates Quick Hits

The Rangers’

Bartolo Colon

has been equally vulnerable to both handedness of hitter on the road (.325 wOBA allowed to each), although righties have hit him harder (four additional homers in a sample of only seven additional batters). Quite a few bargain Tigers bats of either handedness hit Colon’s trademark fastball sinker well and are therefore worthy of consideration —

Mikie Mahtook

(.373 wOBA),

Jeimer Candelario

(.422 wOBA),

Niko Goodrum

(.331 wOBA), Jim Adducci (.383 wOBA) and

James McCann

(.355 wOBA).

More from FanSided

  • As mentioned earlier, the Marlins’ Dan Straily tends to be a much better pitcher on the road, but he still struggles against lefties regardless of where he faces them. Considering he’s allowed a .387 wOBA to lefty bats on the road over a 78-batter sample, Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams are all left-handed bargain Nationals bats worthy of consideration, especially since they also tee off against Straily’s low 90s fastball very well. And as far as non-bargain bats go, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto would of course also have to be in play.
  • On the other side, Gio Gonzalez has some trouble against right-handed hitters at Nationals Park, allowing a .336 wOBA and 1.56 WHIP to that handedness. No Marlins hitters have especially standout track records against Gonzalez, but both Brian Anderson and Martin Prado are intriguing players who won’t cost you a mint and hit left-handed pitching well.
  • The Phillies’ Nick Pivetta struggles on the road overall, but left-handed hitters especially give him nightmares outside of Citizens Bank Park (.440 wOBA, 2.20 WHIP, 48.8 percent hard contact rate allowed). Colin Moran, Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, Austin Meadows and the switch-hitting Josh Bell all deserve consideration as a result in terms of Pirates bargain hitters. All of those players also thrive against the mid-90s fastball that Pivetta typically throws (with the exception of Polanco, who’s merely “okay” with a .316 wOBA against the pitch).
  • A note about Phillies bats here as well — none of them have a particularly notable or extensive track record against Pirates starter Trevor Williams, and Williams has been more effective at home. At the same time, no team has hit right-handed pitching on the road better over the last month than the Phillies (.380 wOBA, .210 ISO), so a bargain bat like Carlos Santana or Maikel Franco who hits righties well can also be considered.
MLB
MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, July 6th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

On the other side,

Lance Lynn

is about as vulnerable as Bundy is to left-handed hitters. The Orioles don’t roll many of those out, but

Chance Sisco

,

Chris Davis

and

Jace Peterson

all qualify if they’re in the lineup.

More from DFS

  • The Royals’ Jason Hammel gives up an abundance of hard contact to both sides of the plate, and that’s particularly true in his home park. Red Sox bargain bats in play include Sandy Leon, Brock Holt, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Eduardo Nunez and Mitch Moreland. Also worth noting is the fact that Kansas City relievers have been bad against both sides of the plate at home over the last month (.331 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters, .347 wOBA allowed to righty hitters).
  • The D-Backs’ Zack Godley has had his share of issues with left-handed hitters in his home park (.376 wOBA, 41.1 percent hard contact rate allowed), so Eric Hosmer and Travis Jankowski are particularly worthy of consideration in terms of Padres bargain bats. However, the right-handed Wil Myers also boasts an excellent track record against Godley (.467 over 15 plate appearances), as does Hunter Renfroe (.375 average over nine PAs), so both can be considered.
  • If the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda has one major weakness, it’s left-handed hitters in his home park (.284 BAA, .340 wOBA, 28.1 percent line-drive rate, 46.2 percent hard contact rate allowed). Although he’s having a miserable season overall, Kole Calhoun is a bargain tournament flyer to consider on the Angels as a result, as is Luis Valbuena.
  • The Cardinals’ John Gant has had some trouble with right-handed hitters on the road over a modest 30-batter sample (.280 BAA, .357 wOBA, 40.0 percent hard contact rate allowed). The Giants’ Buster Posey and Gorkys Hernandez are value Giants bats to therefore take under consideration for tournaments.

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

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