DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, July 8

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have an 11 game slate on hand today so let’s get going!

We had a solid DFS MLB day yesterday thanks to Blake Snell dominating against the Mets and out-scoring chalky Charlie Morton. The offense wasn’t the best we’ve ever put together but it was plenty good enough to roll on past the cash lines. I normally don’t spend a lot of time dissecting a win, because I’m ready to move on and win again so let’s go to work on a large Sunday slate.

DFS MLB – Yankees at Blue Jays

Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP 

5.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 27.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .325 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .326 wOBA, 32.3 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

As excited as DFS players were about the strikeout upside with German, we’ve also seen his downside in his last two starts. He hasn’t made it a full five innings for either start and he’s given up at least three earned in both. There could be some potential here via the pitch data because German throws his curveball almost 39 percent of the time and many of the main hitters don’t rate that well against the pitch. The only one that does is Kevin Pillar. The lefties would be the way to go here by wOBA and German’s splits so Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak or Kendrys Morales could be options. I’d be inclined to stack Blue Jays because German is so hittable when he’s not striking people out but it’s a GPP side of the game to me.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kevin Pillar, Curtis Granderson(probable chalky in cash), Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

2.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate(13.0 IP)

Borucki has flashed some upside so far but I wouldn’t bank on that continuing today against this Yankee lineup. In fairness, it has the chance to enter this game slightly beat up. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres are already on the shelf and it appears that Aaron Hicks will also likely miss this one. Still, the top of the lineup will remain dangerous and the best hitter for wOBA and ISO by far is Aaron Judge. I just normally don’t pay up for him with his home/road splits. He and Giancarlo Stanton both mash fastballs and Judge was one of the better changeup hitters in baseball last year. This two pitches make up the majority of Borucki’s arsenal, so maybe this is a spot where we make an exception for Judge. Didi Gregorius would also be an excellent option at a tough to fill spot.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner, Miguel Andujar

Home Run Pick – Didi Gregorius

DFS MLB – A’s at Indians

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP 

3.83 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 14.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .361 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 35.5 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .282 average, .323 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 20.6 fly ball rate and 52.4 hard hit rate

Montas just saw this Indians offense in his last start and actually didn’t pitch that poorly. He’s also a two pitch pitcher who throws just a fastball and slider and the Indians are in a prime spot. Montas doesn’t strikeout lefties at a very good clip and he’ll likely face at least five lefties, if not seven through this lineup. The top four hitters against the fastball and slider all bat lefty in Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso and Michael Brantley. Everyone except Alonso is also at the top of the list for wOBA and ISO. The stats look bleak for Montas on the road today and Cleveland very well might put up a big number. My favorite high end play would be Ramirez since he’s the best fastball hitter in baseball. Alonso is very affordable and could make for a great two man mini stack.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

2.97 ERA, 1.38 wOBA and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .359 average, .441 wOBA, 22.9 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 54.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .226 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Pitching is…not great today so I guess Bieber could be one of the better options on the board. Here’s the issue – when the A’s are on the road, they’re one of the best offenses in baseball against righty pitching. On the season, they rank third in average, first in OPS, second in ISO(by.01), first in wOBA and first in wRC+. That’s the epitome of “dangerous matchup” and to top that off, the A’s are 18th in strikeouts. Combine that with Bieber’s strikeouts dropping his last two starts, this isn’t a spot to use him for me. All three of Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis and Matt Olson are firmly in play here. They sport high wOBA’s and ISO’s against righty pitching and Olson is one of the better slider hitters in baseball, which Bieber throws 22 percent of the time. I’m wondering if the A’s stack could go a little under-owned but those three are so reasonably priced, it’s a solid rout to go.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Options – Dustin Fowler, Matt Chapman

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Rays at Mets

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

3.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .261 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .302 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

I’m not sure quite where to go on this one. The Mets offense isn’t good but they can be pesky against righty pitching. Eovaldi has been leaning on his cutter and fastball over 60 percent of the time since he’s come back from injury and the Mets have a good hitter against both pitches in Brandon Nimmo. Even though Eovaldi is better against lefties, Nimmo would be my favorite choice from the bunch. Jose Bautista has been hitting righties extremely well since he’s been a Met with an OPS over 1.000 and a wOBA over.400. That seems like a small sample size type of thing that will crash and burn over time. I’m not really a fan of much of anything on this side of the game and likely won’t use anyone from it.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options – Jose Bautista, Asdrubal Cabrera

Mets Probable Starter – Chris Flexen, RHP 

*Career Stats, 51.1 IP* 8.06 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .370 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 27.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .370 average, .463 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Flexen has been called up to make a spot start and I really wish the Rays had a bit more power upside. We definitely want to chase the righties given the splits that we’re looking at and Wilson Ramos offers the best combo of being a right handed hitter and having the chance to leave the yard. His Price still isn’t too bad at $3,000 and even though the pitch data doesn’t match well with the fastball and slider combo Flexen has thrown, I’m willing to overlook that. Matt Duffy is the best fastball hitter on the Rays so he would be a fine option as well. C.J. Cron would likely be the last righty that could pop one out today. It might seem weird to say, but a Tampa stack is an option for today given the quality of pitcher they’re facing.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilson Ramos, Matt Duffy

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, a full Rays stack

Home Run Pick – Wilson Ramos

DFS MLB – Rangers at Tigers

Rangers Probable Starter – Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP 

4.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 16.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .314 average, .364 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .341 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 43.1 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

The Tigers would be a fine stacking option if they were a good team against righties but I would have a hard time hitting “Submit” with them as my main bullet. If you want to play Nichaols Castellanos or Jeimer Candelario, I wouldn’t be totally against it. They both hit the pitch mix for Bibens-Dirkx well, which is mainly fastballs, cutters and changeups. I would generally rather chase a higher wOBA and ISO than the .324ish and .196 that these two display but Bibens-Dirkx isn’t a very good pitcher. The lone lefty that I might feel good about would be Niko Goodrum and you could always punt with Victor Martinez. The Tigers lineup is just so sub-par that it’s scary to play them unless it’s against a lefty pitcher, which they smash. This is the same team that couldn’t hit Big Sexy Bartolo Colon a couple nights ago.

Tigers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez

Tigers Probable Starter – Michael Fulmer, RHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .312 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 37.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .317 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Even with some highly mediocre stats on display, it never seems like Fulmer gets completely destroyed. I think you have to keep riding Shin-soo Choo right now. Many people(even including myself) are sleeping on just how good he is right now. All he knows how to do is get on base and he’s quickly approaching 20 home runs. His price is once again reasonable. Fulmer throws his fastball 60 percent of the time and Choo owns that pitch. He’s actually fifth in the league behind only Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout and the Boston Bash Brothers, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. That’s some pretty solid company to be in. Oh, he also leads the Rangers in wOBA and ISO against righty pitching and walks over 15 percent of the time. He’s likely going to be one of the better plays on the slate. He’s the one trustworthy piece for the Rangers but hitters like Adrian Beltre, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus are solid plays as well.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Options – Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus

Home Run Pick – Shin-soo Choo

DFS MLB – Marlins at Nationals

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .280 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .336 average, .407 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 50.6 hard hit rate

This is quite the interesting matchup by the splits. Richards is a heavily reverse splits guy and Washington has some good lefties. They are also scoring about three weeks worth of runs in this series, so I’m inclined to not pay attention to the splits quite as much as I normally would. If you didn’t play the night slate, let me enlighten you as to how Mark Reynolds played last night.

The man scored 80 FanDuel points. Yes, that’s an eight followed by a zero in that order. 80. Mark Reynolds did that. If you want to play him after that type of night, I can’t even say you’re wrong here. He does bat righty and that’s where Richards has struggled the most. Anthony Rendon is the team’s best righty changeup hitter and is second against fastballs, which Richards throws over 80 percent of the time. I would spend on him and Trea Turner before the lefty bats, but the Nationals are some kind of hot right now.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP 

4.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 19.7 fly ball rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .331 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .314 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Something about these Marlins just makes them super pesky when you try to throw a pitcher against them. Heck, even Max Scherzer has pitched 13 innings against them this year and has only struck out seven hitters and given up eight earned runs. Roark got blitzed last start but that was also against Boston. J.T. Realmuto is the team leader in wOBA and ISO against righty pitching this season and he hits the fastball fairly well, which Roark throws 55 percent of the time. He mixes in a changeup, curve and slider pretty evenly other than that. Five Marlins regulars rate well against the pitch and the hitter with the most power upside is Justin Bour. He’s second behind Realmuto in ISO and wOBA and is also on the right side of the splits and $700 cheaper. This could actually be a game stack opportunity once again.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour

Secondary Options – Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro, Derek Dietrich

Home Run Pick – J.T. Realmuto

DFS MLB – Phillies at Pirates

Phillies Probable Starter – Drew Anderson, RHP 

Anderson has under 3.0 innings in the big leagues, so here’s a link to the brooksbaseball.net page for him. Through the minors, he’s carried just an average strikeout rate and has given up his share of fly balls. The main two pitches are a fastball and slider but that’s not the biggest help because nobody on the Pirates stands out in that respect. The best fastball hitter on the team is Francisco Cervelli and he also leads the squad in wOBA and ISO against righties among regular players. I point that out because he could be back today from a concussion. I’m not typically one to chase players the first game back but he’s also minimum price. That could be a very solid value if he’s activated. Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Colin Moran all repent value across the board and we’ll see how the lineup shakes out exactly. Josh Bell hit leadoff yesterday for some reason so the Bucs might be trying some funky stuff.

Pirates Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Francisco Cervelli(if active), Starling Marte

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell

Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham, RHP 

4.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .274 average, .366 wOBA, 15.0 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .265 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 41.8 hard hit rate

Can you paint a picture that has Kingham being a really good starting option today? Sure, but I’m not sure that’s the likeliest outcome here. His strikeout rate looks good but after his stellar debut, he’s been an average pitcher at best. He’s gotten more than five strikeouts once six starts. I defintiely want a piece of the lefty hitters here and that means Odubel Herrera tops the list. The prices for the Phillies hitters reflect the 17 run outburst from Friday night but Herrera still has the upside to make his price tag worth it. Carlos Santana is a bit pricey for a player that will easily take his walk and be happy about it. Kingham will likely face four lefties in the top five of the order when you count Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams, so this isn’t the best spot for him. The lone righty in the top five is Rhys Hoskins, who is no picnic to pitch to.

Phillies hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernadez, Rhys Hoskins

Home Run Pick – Nick Williams

DFS MLB – White Sox at Astros

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito,, RHP 

6.93 ERA, 1.62 WHIP And 13.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .283 average, .397 wOBA, 9.2 K rate, 45.3 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .336 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 42.2 fly ball rate and 29.4 hard hit rate

Well, this mouton couldn’t look much larger for Giolito today. He had been showing some progress until he got thumped by the Reds in his last start(and hurting my narrative of catcher Kevan Smith is a Giolito whisperer) and it’s hard to envision him getting right in Houston. If you’re just going by the splits, you can fill two thirds out your outfield spots for a total of $5,000 and play lefties Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker, who was called up yesterday. I’m inclined to play Tucker given his pedigree, price point and matchup today. Giolito really leans on his fastball and the top four hitters against that pitch are Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman, Reddick and Jose Altuve. I don’t think you can really go wrong with any of the main weapons fro Houston here. Bregman continues to be one of the hottest hitters in baseball and Altuve is one of the best hitters in the game.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker

Secondary Options – Evan Gattis, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel

Astros Probable Starter – Dallas Keuchel, LHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .301 average, .337 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 12.5 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .300 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

I really don’t want to play Keuchel, especially give his unpredictability and his price point. The White Sox have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties and rate below average in all the offensive categories that we look at. You’re going to have to consider Avisail Garcia, who has been totally on fire lately. I also always take a look at Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson when the Sox play against a lefty. Abreu carries a .270 ISO and .370 wOBA against lefty pitching this season and sits at just $3,000. I wonder if Keuchel still carries enough name value that Abreu goes overlooked.  Any White Sox hitter is more of a GPP play than cash because we know Keuchel can show up and shut them down.

White Sox Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu

Secondary Options – Tim Anderson

Home Run Pick – Kyle Tucker hits his first

DFS MLB – Braves at Brewers

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .320 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .277 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 30.5 hard hit rate

I’m really not looking to start Newcomb today, although I’ve been a fan throughout the season. The biggest issue is the last time Newcomb hit eight or more strikeouts, it was May 2nd. That’s not going to cut it in Milwaukee because I would be surprised if he doesn’t give up at least two or three runs. The lefty for the Braves is close to throwing his fastball 62 percent of the time, so that leads us to the Brewers best fastball hitter, Jesus Aguilar. He’s also first on the squad with a massive .333 ISO against lefties and appears to be a great play, even at $4,100. I would have gone towards Lorenzo Cain, who does have plenty of factors in his corner from the statistical perspective. He’s second against the fastball and is first in wOBA against lefties. He is basically full price in his first game back from the disabled list so maybe it’s more of a GPP play than cash.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Lorenzo Cain(GPP), Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Ryan Braun(if active), Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .300 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 41.3 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .282 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 41.6 fly ball rate and 42.7 hard hit rate

I’m not in the habit of playing a pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark against the Braves, especially when that pitcher’s fly ball rate and hard hit rate scream regression. He’s just been so good against lefty hitters that he’s got the chance to do some work against this Atlanta offense. I would rather pay less and play a guy like Odorizzi in a better matchup but I won’t be surprised if Gurrea is solid here. Five regular hitters rate very well against the fastball, which Guerra throws over 70 percent of the time. The issue is not many teams have figured that pitch out yet this season. Freddie Freeman keeps seeing his price be low for him and tempting me, but I think I’m going other directions today.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Otions – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Johan Carmago

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Villar

DFS MLB – Orioles at Twins

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

6.53 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 14.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .321 average, .389 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 35.9 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .307 average, .376 wOBA, 12.6 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

The metrics are still terrible, but Cobb has shown flashes if getting everything together. He’s also been wildly unpredictable lately. His game logs from his last eight starts goes like this – 2, 25, 46, -1, 24, 40, 2, 30. So good luck trying to figure out what in the world you’re about to get today. Seeing as how the Twins are lefty heavy, I’m leaning towards the poor side if these numbers. Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario really appear to be in prime spots today. They are 1-2 not only in wOBA and ISO, but also against the fastball and curve which is the majority of Cobb’s arsenal. I might give Rosario a slight edge here because he’s also excellent against Cobb’s third pitch, the changeup. I can’t bring myself to use Cobb at all, even though I know he’s got good games within him.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.57 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 24.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .253 average, .367 wOBA, 21.8 K rate, 49.2 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .331 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Is it possible we’ve found our pitcher for the day? I’m not really an Odorizzi fan, but he’s drawing a pretty solid matchup today. The Orioles strikeout against righties at the sixth highest rate in baseball and are 25th or worse in average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. Odorizzi gives up some home runs but a lot of them come from lefty hitters. His HR/9 is 2.04 to lefties but is down at a very manageable 1.06 HR/9 to righties. The only lefty that should really be a threat to take Odorizzi out of the yard is Chris Davis. He’s been a little more productive lately but I also wouldn’t say it’s anyone I’d worry about. This matchup isn’t without risk but this type of pitchers are really nowhere to be found on this slate.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Home Run Pick – Eddie Rosario

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Royals

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP

3.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .317 wOBA, 25.7 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .273 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 24.5 hard hit rate

Since Zach Eflin won’t be making his start today, Porello is basically tied with Keuchel as the most expensive pitcher on the slate. While I don’t think the Royals get to him for a lot of runs, I’m not sure the strikeout upside is there. Kansas City is 29th in strikeout rate against righties, only trailing the Red Sox for the least in baseball. Porcello has had his issues with power lefties in the past but has cleaned that up this season. Both Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas lead the Royals in ISO this season so they’re definitely worth a look and they’re cheap as well. Past that, I don’t have interest in this Kansas City lineup. Thee’s way too many offenses in spots that I actually want to play.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary options – Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

5.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .342 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 45.0 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .344 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard hit rate

The Boston Red Sox are one of the last teams you want to face off when you have home run issues, but that’s where things are at for Junis today. He’s given up 24 bombs already, nine to lefties and a ridiculous 15 to righties. I mentioned them earlier but hello, Boston Bash Brothers. In a vacuum where price doesn’t facto in, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are two of the better plays on the slate today and have to be some of the biggest home run threats on the day. I’m leaning towards paying the extra $200 for Betts today. Junis throws his slider just a bit under 40 percent of the time. Mookie is fourth in baseball against that pitch while Martinez is down at 67th. That’s plenty big enough to be a tie-breaker. If you still stack those two(perfectly fine), look at Xander Bogaerts to make it a three man stack. He’s a righty and 10th against the slider. Lefties certainly aren’t a bad way to go either.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, JD. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Options – Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland

Home Run Pick – Betts and Bogaerts

DFS MLB – Reds at Cubs

Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP 

5.53 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .370 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .306 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Can I just drop the pitcher spot today and play an extra offensive player? There are so many spots that look good on paper and we have to add the Cubbies lefties onto that list. I was very surprised to see that the best changeup hitter aside from Kris Bryant on the Cubs roster is actually Kyle Schwarber. The big man also has a .300 ISO against righty pitching this season. That’s not a great mix for Castillo, who’s main weapon other than the fastball is his changeup. Ian Happ would also be a solid target by pitch data, especially if he draws a favorable spot in the order. Ben Zobrist might not have a ton of upside but he does rate well by the pitch data and is second on the Cubs in wOBA behind Scwarber.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .224 average, .311 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 43.1 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .279 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

Please, let this be the day that Lester starts to get eaten by the regression monster. I’m tired of saying it’s coming and nothing happening start after start. This isn’t just a bitter Pirates fan who doesn’t like the Cubs, either. Lester has an xFIP of at least 4.45 to both sides of the plate to this point. In case you missed it, full credit goes to the CBS Sports Baseball Podcast for pointing out this ver cool stat-

I’m almost promising you that I’m playing Eugenio Suarez today unless the weather at Wrigley turns me off of him. He carries a .243 ISO and a .438wOBA against lefties. He also hits the fastball at just about the highest rate on the team and is the best cutter hitter on the Reds. Lester throws those two pitches almost 75 percent of the time. Today is the day, friends. Lester will not have a good start. If he does, I will happily take my L on Twitter and own up to it.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart, Jose Peraza(stolen base upside galore)

Secondary Options – Adam Duvall, Joey Votto

Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Jake Odorizzi

C/1B – Matt Olson 

2B – Jason Kipnis 

3B – Eugenio Suarez 

SS – Xander Bogaerts

OF – Shin-soo Choo, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker 

Utility – Yonder Alonso

I honestly think I could get double the budget and 10 more offensive spots and not feel like I have all the pieces that I want. Odorizzi represents the lowest priced pitcher that I have some comfort with because the Baltimore offense is that bad right now. They’re almost sure to rise up and bite me since I’ve said that. The build starts with a couple higher end plays from the Red Sox but if pitch data doesn’t let me down, these two will crush the Junis sliders. I’ll take a piece of the Cleveland offense at a cheaper rate and maybe the bottom of the order is productive as well. From there, we take a one-off from Oakland, Cincinnati, Texas and Houston.

Pitching to Consider – 

High End – Rick Porcello

Mid Range – Junior Gurrea, Jake Odorizzi

Punts – Nate Eovaldi

Stacks to Consider – Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Oakland A’s, Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins

I know that’s more than I normally give but it’s that kind of a slate.

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.