MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 8th All Slates

Welcome to a Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday’s slates!

FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 8th All Slates

Bargain Pitcher

Jack Flaherty– STL at SFG

As the last couple of days have proven, identifying a value pitcher can sometimes be a tricky proposition, regardless of what past trends and numbers might indicate. Even though we have our usual max slate Sunday, tabbing an affordable arm that can be trusted is no comfortable feat. I contemplated a couple of other intriguing candidates before arriving on Flaherty that I think have some upside as well, and I’ll list those underneath after making his case.

Flaherty boasts a 2.86 ERA, .197 BAA and .266 wOBA allowed over 34.2 road innings, a span during which he’s also racked up 34 strikeouts. He’s produced quality starts in two of his last three road starts, and he came just an earned run short of making that three consecutive. He flashed his considerable upside when he fanned a whopping 13 Brewers over seven innings of one-hit ball on June 22, his second 13-strikeout game of the season. Moreover, he’s racked up at least six whiffs in five of his last six trips to the mound.

Meanwhile, the Giants haven’t exactly been world-beaters against right-handed pitching, as they check into Sunday with a .294 wOBA, 91 wRC+ and -4.8 wRAA against that handedness at home over the last month of play. When examined over the entire season, San Fran has the eighth-highest strikeout rate against righties (23.7 percent) irrespective of where they face them, along with a -2.6 wRAA that just ranks them in the bottom half of baseball for the season.

Flaherty will also have some park factor working his favor as well, considering AT & T Park unsurprisingly ranks in the bottom 10 in home-run rate (0.864).

ALSO CONSIDER:

Alex Wood, LAD at LAA

Junior Guerra, MIL vs. ATL

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 8th All Slates Quick Hits

The Yankees’ Domingo German has struggled mightily against both handedness of hitter on the road (.389 wOBA allowed to righties, .343 wOBA allowed to lefties), with right-handed batters especially thriving (.309 average, 25.0 percent line-drive rate, 47.5 percent hard contact rate). With many Blue Jays bats usually affordably priced, a number from either side of the plate are in play as a result, including Curtis Granderson, Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk and Aledmys Diaz.

On the Yankees side, we’re challenged by both Blue Jays starter

Ryan Borucki

‘s limited sample size and the fact that many New York bats fall outside of value range. However, one bargain option I do find intriguing if he’s in the lineup is

Andrew Romine

, who owns a .345 wOBA, .397 CXwOBA, 41.3 percent hard contact rate and 87.3 percent contact rate against the fastball sinker that Borucki throws most often.

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The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer has been tagged by righty bats at home (.355 wOBA, 22.9 percent line-drive rate, 43.7 percent hard contact rate) but left-handed bats have hit him almost as hard (40.7 percent hard contact) and only have a .266 wOBA to show for it. The difference is a .202 BABIP when facing lefty hitters that’s an unsustainable figure if Fulmer keeps allowing that much solid wood on the ball. Therefore, I’d give Nomar Mazara (who also owns a .625 average against him in his career) and Joey Gallo (.400 average, one homer against him) consideration as bargain left-handed options on the Rangers. Shin-soo Choo also certainly qualifies wherever he might be affordable. Right-handed bargain hitters are in play as well, including Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre and Robinson Chirinos. Also of note is that the Detroit pen has allowed a 6.27 ERA to righty bats at home in the last month, and a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters during that span.

The Rangers’ Austin Bibens-Dirkx can be a hard pitcher to figure out, and he’s been battered by right-handed hitters on the road over a small 27-batter sample (.462 wOBA). John Hicks, Niko Goodrum, James McCann, JaCoby Jones and the switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario are Tigers bats that should be reasonably priced and hit both right-handed pitching and Bibens Dirkx’s high-80s fastball well.

The Athletics’ Brett Anderson is coming off the disabled list to make Sunday’s start after missing multiple weeks with a shoulder injury. Before getting hurt, Anderson was getting hit especially hard by right-handed hitters (.463 wOBA allowed), which makes him a big target against the Indians. Much like the Yankees, Cleveland doesn’t boast too many cheap bats, but one such player who’s traditionally hit lefties well is Yan Gomes. This season is no different, as Gomes boasts a .354 average and .646 slugging percentage against southpaws over 75 plate appearances.

The Mets’ Chris Flexen gets the callup to start Sunday, and he’s been a target for both handedness of hitter throughout his career. Flexen has allowed a massive .370 average and .463 wOBA to right-handed hitters, along with a .388 wOBA to lefty bats. Most affordable Rays are worthy of consideration in my opinion, which includes Matt Duffy, Wilson Ramos, Joey Wendle, Jake Bauers, Daniel Robertson and Carlos Gomez. Both sides of the plate could also thrive when the bullpen takes over, considering Mets relievers are allowing a .348 wOBA and 5.02 ERA to lefty bats at home over the last month, and a .402 wOBA, 7.45 ERA and .303 average to right-handed hitters at Citi Field in that same span.

If you were paying attention Saturday night, you noted that there were three massive blowouts out of four games. That comes into play in the form of some tired bullpens Sunday, with the Marlins being one. Miami may have only utilized two relievers despite giving up 18 runs, but they’ve still worked the fourth-most innings of any pen in the last seven days, one of the main reasons manager Don Mattingly mercilessly allowed Elieser Hernandez to stay on the mound as he allowed a whopping 10 runs. With starter Trevor Richards having shown weakness against both sides of the plate on the road (6.08 ERA, .290 BAA and .375 wOBA allowed), I’d consider any affordable Nationals, including the incandescently hot Mark Reynolds, Adam Eaton, Wilmer Difo, Matt Adams and Michael A. Taylor.

On the Nationals side, worth noting that starter Tanner Roark has allowed a .373 wOBA, including 11 extra-base hits, to left-handed hitters at home. Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour thus deserve some consideration, but also factor in that the right-handed Martin Prado owns a .435 average over 25 plate appearances versus Roark in his career, striking out just once in that span.

FanDuel MLB /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, July 8th All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

There could be some offense in the Phillies-Pirates matchup, as Drew Anderson and Nick Kingham will be the starters. Anderson has particularly had trouble getting lefty hitters out so far in his brief major-league career, and it’s been an issue to an extent at the minor-league level as well. Austin Meadows, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Colin Moran and Corey Dickerson all come into play in terms of affordable Pirates bats.

Kingham hasn’t been too successful getting left-handed hitters out either, although he’s been better at home overall. Nevertheless, I’d give consideration to the switch-hitting

Carlos Santana

Nick Williams

and the switch-hitting

Andrew Knapp

if in the lineup in terms of affordable left-handed Phillies bats (Hernandez and Herrera are both outside value range). The Pirates bullpen is also a bit tired (30.1 innings in last seven days, sixth-most in baseball), and they’ve allowed a .341 wOBA to lefty hitters at home in the last month.

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Alex Cobb and Jake Odorrizi have more than just being former Rays teammates in common — they’ve also gotten hit hard overall this season, although Cobb has been markedly worse. While both are certainly capable of turning in solid outings any time they’re on the mound, I’d give affordable bats on both the Orioles and Twins consideration here. To narrow our focus down a bit, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones and Danny Valencia are particularly worth tournament flyers against Odorizzi given their favorable histories against him, while Joe Mauer has proven a particularly tough out for Cobb in the past. As far as bullpens, Orioles relievers have been bad against both sides of the plate, while the Twins bullpen has allowed an AL-high .383 wOBA and a 5.73 ERA to right-handed hitters at home over the last month.

The Astros’ Dallas Keuchel has been a much better pitcher at home, but keep Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and Kevan Smith in mind as large-field tournament options. All three have successful track records versus the lefty and hit that handedness very well. Matt Davidson also qualifies as far as battering southpaws.

On the Houston side, starter Lucas Giolito has allowed a .287 average, .397 wOBA and 38.1 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters on the road, which puts Josh Reddick and the switch-hitting Marwin Gonzalez in play as far as affordable Astros bats.

The Royals’ Jake Junis has already given up a whopping 24 homers this season, and he’s yielding a .380 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home. However, he gives up over 40.0 percent hard contact to both sides of the plate at Kauffman Stadium, so I’d throw the kitchen sink at him in terms of value Red Sox bats — Sandy Leon, Steve Pearce, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt all come to mind. The Royals are another bullpen that put in work Saturday, and they already check in allowing an AL-high .357 wOBA and 5.66 ERA at home over the last month.

A quick note about Jon Lester — two Reds who’ve hit him particularly well and should be affordably priced are Tucker Barnhart and Jose Peraza.

Meanwhile, Cincy starter Luis Castillo has been a nightmare versus lefty hitters on the road, as evidenced by a .304 BAA, .407 wOBA, 5.51 xFIP and 47.0 percent hard contact rate allowed. Where affordable, I recommend getting the switch-hitting Ben Zobrist (.373 wOBA against righties), Kyle Schwarber and the switch-hitting Ian Happ (.369 wOBA, .529 CXwOBA against righties) into some lineups.

The Padres’ Clayton Richard has been a mixed bag this season, but keep three D-Backs bats in mind that should be affordable and have hit him well in the past — Chris Owings, Nick Ahmed and Jon Jay. Additionally, the switch-hitting Ketel Marte and John Ryan Murphy both hit left-handed pitching very well, and Padres relievers have allowed a 6.65 ERA and eight homers to righty bats on the road in the last month.

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