DFS MLB Game By Game Breakdown – Monday July 9

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! There’s nine games in front of us tonight so let’s jump in and get busy!

Despite getting quite a few of the puzzle pieces together, I couldn’t make the whole picture. It was a day where I had to take solace in the fact that this article should have helped the readers because I got some things right, I just built my lineup a little wrong by ignoring the Rays chalk. Let’s see what we have on our hands for tonight!

DFS MLB – Nationals at Pirates

Nationals Probable Starter – Jeffry Rodriguez, RHP 

*14.2 IP* 5.52 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .292 average, .399 wOBA, 10.7 K rate, 47.6 fly ball rate and 52.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .317 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

We don’t have a whole lot to go on for Rodriguez in the majors but the early results haven’t been good. FanDuel totally whiffed on the price for Francisco Cervelli. I don’t understand how he can be minimum price again. He leads the Pirates in wOBA and ISO against righties among regular players. The young righty for the Nationals throws mainly a fastball/curveball mix and Cervelli is the team’s best hitter against the fastball. We want some exposure to the lefties and there’s merit to a stack that would be the 3-4-5 hitters in this lineup. Lefties Gregory Polanco and Colin Moran should hit third and fourth, Cervelli can bring them in. Those three players would only cost $7,300 total.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Cervelli, Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 18.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .358 wOBA, 12.1 K rate, 41.3 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .320 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

We’re early in the process, but this game stack already looks pretty solid. Nova gets smoked by lefties and the Nationals lineup could load up with them. The Nationals will also face a whole lot of fastballs and this could be a time to break my rule of not paying for Bryce Harper. He owns fastballs and is on the right side of the split, although Juan Soto is virtually identical against the fastball and has a better wOBA than Harper against righties this season. Harper does hold the edge in ISO though. Adam Eaton is the cheapest lefty bat that you can trust, but Daniel Murphy is the cheapest overall. I’d side with Eaton, but man these lefties could have a field day against Nova, who has struggled in back to back starts.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Adam Eaton

Secondary Options -Daniel Murphy

Home Run Pick – Bryce Harper and Adam Eaton

DFS MLB – Reds at Indians

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

5.08 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .213 average, .340 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 42.2 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .347 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 47.3 hard hit rate

The lefty splits look really good for DeSclafani, but I’d put more weight into the career splits and that means he’s been way worse against lefties. I don’t think he’s magically fixed that issue and he could get destroyed in this matchup. We could probably say this every single day, but Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are some of the best options if you can afford them. DeSclafani is using almost exclusively a fastball and slider. Ramirez is the best fastball hitter and Lindor is in the top five against the slider. Michael Brantley isn’t as expensive as those two, but he’s far from cheap either. Brantley is the second best slider hitter on the team and is third in wOBA. They left some people hanging yesterday, but stand poised to make up for it today.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP

3.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .286 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 37.4 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .295 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 37.4 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Clevinger is an interesting option tonight but he’s a little too expensive for me. Other than the games against the White Sox where he eclipsed 60 points in both, he’s been over 40 points twice in eight starts. That’s simply not good enough for $9,700 of your budget. I also don’t have a ton of interest in the Reds bats. There’s going to be offenses in better spots because Clevinger is still a really good pitcher in real life. I just don’t think he’ll score enough fantasy points to be viable. I’d roll with Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez or Joey Votto if you wanted to play Reds. I just don’t think it’s going to be what I do.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez

Home Run Pick – Michael Brantley

DFS MLB – Brewers at Marlins

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

3.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .188 average, .280 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 43.3 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .322 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 45.1 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

I’m not sure if I’m going to trust Anderson in cash games, but he’s definitely going to be a GPP option. He’s been in really solid form the past three games and the price is right at just $7,500. His past three starts have totaled 17.1 innings pitched, 19 strikeouts, seven hits and three earned runs. One would think a Miami offense that ranks 24th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ wouldn’t mount much of a challenge. Then again, the Marlins always find a way to be pesky if I use a pitcher against them. J.T. Realmuto would be my favorite play since he has a wOBA of .423 and a .275 ISO against righty pitching.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP 

4.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .322 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 44.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .273 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 27.6 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard hit rate

There’s spots that Urena is actually not a terrible option but today isn’t one of them. Jesus Aguilar sure looks appealing, coming off a massive two homer game and he’s the best fastball and slider hitter on Milwaukee. Urena throws those pitches 80 percent of the time and Aguilar has plenty of power to leave the yard even in Miami, as evidenced by his .302 ISO. Eric Thames has the higher upside, but Christian Yelich is the safer play because they have a lot of similar numbers. The main difference is Thames hits for way more power but Yelich strikes out a bit less. Brad Miller would be a fine punting option at shortstop today as well.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames, Christian Yelich

Secondary Options – Jonathan Villar, Brad Miller

Home Run Pick – Christian Yelich Revenge Game gets going in full effect

DFS MLB – Rangers at Red Sox

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP 

4.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .308 wOBA, 14.9 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .336 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 46.8 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Some of the numbers look very average for the Red Sox against lefty pitching, but turn the filter to facing left-handed pitching when they’re at home, and they’re in the top five in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. If I can only play one hitter from Boston tonight, I think I’d lean ever so slightly to J.D. Martinez because of his history of destroying lefties. The decision could be made for us because he missed yesterday with some minor bumps and bruises. If he’s out, I’ll go all in on Mookie Betts. The one thing Betts does have going for him is he hits sliders way better than Martinez and Minor throws his about 23 percent of the time. Both hitters wreck fastballs. Most of my attention would be these two, but Xander Bogaerts is a good option at shortstop as well. One of the chalkiest players will probably be Steve Pearce, who is likely ticketed for the cleanup spot. It’s probably some good chalk to eat if you play cash.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts

Red Sox Probable Starter – Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP 

3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .219 average, .300 wOBA, 34.6 K rate, 43.2 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .299 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 40.3 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard hit rate

If you”re looking for a high-upside pitcher to use in GPP’s look no further than Rodriguez. Even though he’s a lefty pitcher, the Texas lineup will likely have at least three or four lefties in. That would be great for Rodriguez, since he dominates lefty hitters.The main righties that Rodriguez will have to contain is Adrian Beltre, Delino DeShields and Elvis Andrus. If he can do that, he should be in for a really good outing tonight. There’s always some serious risk with a pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez, but a lot of factors really line up for him tonight.  Ryan Rua would be a cheap way to get into this game if that’s what you want. He does carry a .279 ISO and .350 wOBA against lefties this year and he only costs $2,100 even if he messes up the rest of the lineup. I think Rodriguez takes advantage of the 22.9 strikeout percentage Texas carries as a team against lefty pitching tonight.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jurickson Profar, Ryan Rua

Secondary Options – Delino DeShields, Adrian Beltre

Home Run Pick – Steve Pearce

DFS MLB – Tigers at Rays

Tigers Probable Starter – Francisco Liriano, LHP 

4.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .098 average, .207 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 19.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .343 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Of the nine hitters in the lineup tonight for the Rays, eight of them might wind up hitting righty. That pretty much takes Liriano off the table for me because he needs a perfect matchup at this point in his career. There is a possibility for him to have a decent start because the Rays don’t have a righty hitter that hits slider well other than Daniel Robertson. That’s Liriano’s main weapon outside of the fastball and he throws it right about 38 percent of the time. I would head towards C.J. Cron or Wilson Ramos in this spot, who both have wOBA’s over .360. They would be the ones that I would suspect do the damage against Liriano.

Rays Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Daniel Robertson

Rays Probable Starter – Chris Archer, RHP 

4.24 ERA, 1.34 wOBA, 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .361 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 30.1 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .297 wOBA, 29.1 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

If Archer were cheaper, I might actually take a shot at him even though I almost never play pitchers coming off the disabled list. He does have some factors working for him, like being at home and drawing a Detroit team that strikes out about the league average versus righty pitching. As of now, we don’t know how limited Archer would be so I would stick with a hitter like Nicholas Castellanos or Jeimer Candelario. There’s not a lot to like from this side of the game until we get lineups and word of a pitch count for Archer sometime today.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos , Jeimer Candelario

Home Run Pick – Nicholas Castellanos

DFS MLB – Royals at Twins

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

5.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .277 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .360 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 47.3 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

This might be my favorite tournament play for the evening. Duffy had been riding a hot streak until he had a hiccup agains the Indians, which is pretty excusable. Duffy has held lefties to a .277 wOBA so far this year. The Twins will likely have two lefty hitters right off the bat and then the righties shouldn’t totally worry you. If Duffy can keep Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier quiet, it could be a very quiet night for the Twins offense. Robbie Grossman has the highest wOBA of any batter that hits righty against lefty pitching and that sits at .317. That’s a very bleak picture for this Minnesota offense and I can’t believe I might point in everyone else’s direction. I can’t find a Twins hitter that I’m totally pumped in this one, but we’ll circle back if we need to.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP 

3.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .280 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .215 average, .277 wOBA, 26.8 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Whew, Berrios is expensive tonight. The funny part is his last start was worth one point. That’s it, one point. Kansas City doesn’t pile up the strikeouts, and even though the Royals probably won’t do a whole lot, I can’t pay so much for Berrios when I feel like there’s other solid options. This feels like a spot that you play Berrios in tournaments if you see a ceiling game for him and a total fade of this side of the game otherwise. I really don’t love this game at all and I think this might shrink it to an eight game slate and Danny Duffy.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Brian Dozier

DFS MLB – A’s at Astros

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP 

3.83 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .361 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 35.5 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .282 average, .324 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 20.6 fly ball rate and 52.4 hard hit rate

The A’s bumped Montas back a day and I’m not sure Oakland did him any favors by throwing him in Houston. The young righty throws a a two pitch mix of a fastball and a slider and there’s plenty of ways to go tonight. What will be interesting is to see how many people got burned by Houston yesterday because they’re in a great spot again. I want Alex Bregman the most and it’s not just because he’s one of the best offensive players in the league. He’s neck and neck with Even Gattis for the best fastball hitter on the team and Bregman stands alone as the best slider hitter on the team by a lot. Jose Altuve is another hitter that is hot and hits the fastball and slider mix very well and he leads the Astros in wOBA. You can go a lot of different ways with the Astros this evening and it’s hard to argue that any would be wrong.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Secondary Options – Josh Reddick, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 34.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .181 average, .267 wOBA, 39.9 K rate, 46.4 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .182 average, .254 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

It took forever for Cole’s price to raise at the start of the season and I guess it’s going to take forever to come back down. The last time Cole scored over 50 points was May 9th. He’s been under 50 in his 10 starts since. That’s simply not going to cut it for a pitcher who is over $11,000 and I’m not paying for him in this spot until he improves just a bit. Since he’s been giving up runs lately, I love Matt Olson and Khris Davis as tournament options only. Cole struggled with the long ball last season and it’s come back to bite him a little at some points this year. Just be sure to understand the floor for both hitters is zero.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Home Run Pick – Yuli Gurriel

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Padres

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP 

2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 25.7 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .283 average, .326 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .270 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 26.4 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

Another reason why this slate is so weird is that all of the high-end pitching options seem like it’s not a good idea to pay for them. Kershaw just hasn’t been striking people out since he came back from the disabled list and you can’t pay over five figures for him if that’s not happening. The Padres are a little bit better in some offensive categories against lefties but they still strikeout at the third highest rate in baseball. I’m steering clear of this spot for the most part until Kershaw shows he’s close to his old form. One of the best against the grain stacks would be the Padres but you’d have to be pretty brave to try that one. Christian Villanueva has a .463 ISO and a .475 wOBA against lefties but also carries a 33.3 strikeout rate.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Christian Villanueva, Padres stack

Padres Probable Starter – Luis Perdomo, RHP 

6.86 ERA, 2.19 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .362 average, .415 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 47.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .325 average, .379 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 29.0 hard hit rate

Is it a late night hammer if a lot of people have the same hammer? Perdomo pounds fastballs and the Dodgers hit that pitch very well. The other issue for Perdomo is that five Dodgers hitters have and ISO of over .200. That doesn’t even count Justin Turner and Matt Kemp, who are still over .180. The whole Dodger lineup especially at the top is in play, and it’s just a matter of how the puzzle pieces fit. A lot of the hitters that carry that high of an ISO also has a wOBA over .350. There’s no debating the Dodgers are in a crazy good spot this evening. I like just about anyone that can swing a bat and wears Dodgers blue.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – The top 4-5 in the lineup that are lefties

Secondary Options – Chris Taylor

Home Run Pick – Joc Pederson

DFS MLB – Cubs at Giants

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP 

4.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .210 average, .314 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 40.8 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .315 wOBA, 16.6 K rate, 26.2 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

Ah, one of my least favorite pitchers to see on any slate. I don’t think I can bring myself to play Hendricks because even in a pitcher’s haven in San Francisco, he’s just such a bland pitcher. The righty for the Cubs throws basically all fastballs and changeups at this stage of his career and Brandon Belt smacks that pitch. Andrew McCutchen does as well, and he could be very sneaky because anyone who’s using players from this game will be heading in different directions. The issue with the offensive players is there’s such limited upside. I really think it’s going to be a Brandon Belt game or nothing from this side.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Belt

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Pitcher – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .206 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 25.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .355 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 28.4 fly ball rate and 47.1 hard hit rate

The only two hitters that I would really consider for the Cubbies tonight are Willson Contreras and Javier Baez. These guys can hit the ball to the moon so the park doesn’t exactly worry me. Will I pay up to the premium price for Baez? That’s the $4,400 question from this game. I would lean no, but he’s on fire lately and Suarez has had his fair share of issues with right handed hitters so far. Suarez does throw the fastball 52 percent of the time and Baez is the best fastball hitter on the Cubs. What might be surprising is Contreras has the higher wOBA and the higher ISO than Baez against lefty pitching this season.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Willson Contreras, Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Albert Almora, Addison Russell

Home Run Pick – Andrew McCutchen

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Chase Anderson 

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C/1B – Francisco Cervelli

2B – Daniel Robertson

3B – Colin Moran

SS – Xander Bogaerts

OF – J.D. Martinez, Bryce Harper, Gregory Polanco 

Utility – Steve Pearce

I’ll likely end up doing what I did yesterday afternoon which is having a cash lineup and a bunch of quarter arcade entries. There’s a lot of fantasy goodness to be had tonight and I’m inclined to not spend on pitching for this slate. We have a three man stack from the Red Sox, but that’s how badly things could go for Mike Minor in Fenway Park. We also have a three man Pirates stack, so the argument can be made that this isn’t the best idea for cash because we’re hooked into just two offenses. Robertson is a cheap guy to make things work and then Bryce Harper is always going to  be a good one-off.

The Core – Mookie or J.D., Steve Pearce, Francisco Cervelli

Pitching to Consider 

High-End – Jose Berrios

Mid-Range – Chase Anderson, Eduardo Rodriguez

Punts – Kyle Hendricks, Danny Duffy

Stacks to Consider – Pirates/Nats game stack, Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.