Unpopular fantasy football opinions: Derrick Henry finishes 2018 a RB1
When the Titans released DeMarco Murray back in March, the Derrick Henry fantasy football truthers finally had their day.
I will admit, I wasn’t buying any Henry stock until Murray left. Once he did, I went out and traded for Henry in my dynasty league and will draft him when possible this coming fantasy season.
The reasons for the Henry hype are obvious. He is in an offense that loves the ground and pound. He is the perfect bruiser of a running back at 6’3″ 247 pounds. He is ranked sixth all-time in single-season rushing yards in NCAA history. Not to mention his ridiculous high school highlights that make him look like a man among boys.
Henry is still young, 24, has limited wear thanks to running behind Murray for two seasons, and will only continue to prolong his career with the addition of Dion Lewis (more on that in a minute). While others see Lewis as a threat to Henry’s workload, I see it as a career and health saver for the former Heisman winner.
During Mariota’s rookie year, the Titans went 3-13. Sure, Mariota missed some time, but during that season, Tennessee ranked in the bottom five in rushing attempts per game. Antonio Andrews led the Titans in rushing that season with 520 rushing yards.
Seeing the glaring need for a successful run game to get their franchise quarterback going again, the Titans traded for Murray from the Eagles in 2016 after he had a miserable year.
Murray came aboard the Titans and finished with the third-most rushing yards in the league. During that season Henry still managed to gobble up nearly 500 yards for himself.
Last season with Murray still holding down the lead back role, Henry managed 176 attempts for 744 yards, an average of 4.2 yards per tote. He did this with Tennessee finishing the season with the 14th-most rushing attempts per game. Still, the Titans ran the ball the ball 45.5% of the time, ranking sixth in the NFL in percentage of run plays called. The team below them? The Los Angeles Rams.
Mike Vrabel is the new Titans’ head coach. Tennessee also brought in former Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur to handle the offense.
LaFleur helped the Rams go from one of the worst to one of the best offensive teams in the league in just one season’s time. With another talented youngster behind center in Mariota, it’s only a matter of time before LaFleur’s experience and offensive philosophy show on the field.
What can we expect from Henry in Fantasy Football for 2018?
Once Tennessee signed Dion Lewis to a four-year deal, it was obvious Henry’s huge upside represented by the Murray departure was going to take a hit. The real question is, how big of a hit?
To me, the Lewis hype isn’t justifiable. Did you know he’s been in the league since 2011? Probably not since he has only played a full season one time in his career (last year).
Lewis was able to ride his one good season to a huge payday. It’s disappointing the Titans coaching staff felt the need to bring in another back with Henry proving more than capable, but with the way the modern day NFL works, nearly every team has at least a third-down back.
Gurley led the Rams with 1,305 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last season on a career-high 18.6 rushing attempts per contest. Gurley also was the team’s second-best receiver with 788 yards and six touchdowns.
Todd Gurley is better fantasy football running back than Henry, there is no debating this statement. However, in order to set some kind of expectations, we have to look at Todd Gurley and his numbers while also looking at the Titans’ run-heavy approach and apply it as well.
In 2016 when Murray rushed for the third-most rushing yards in the league, he averaged 18.3 rushing attempts per game, the highest of his career. For the sake of argument, let us say the lead back for the Titans this season would see 18 carries.
Even if Henry’s carries per game takes a slight dip to 15, I don’t think this keeps him out of the RB1 conversation. If Henry lives up to his career average of 4.3 yards per carry, 15 carries a game puts him at 1,032 yards over the course of a 16-game season.
Gurley scored nearly 20 touchdowns last season. Let us say Henry scores half of that with 10 scores. Ten touchdowns and 1,032 yards would give Henry 163.2 fantasy points.
Even while splitting running duties, Henry has averaged 136.5 receiving yards per season to go with half a touchdown. Let us add in the 136.5 receiving yards on 12 catches (25.65 points) and a touchdown (6) to the 163.2. Now we’re at 194.85 points, putting Henry at the RB16 last season.
The running back 16 would put Henry behind the likes of new teammate Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde and Mark Ingram, all unlikely to outproduce Henry again this season. If Henry can leapfrog these three and add in another score or two, Henry will be at the back end of the running back one tier.
All of the projected numbers for Henry are on the low side. He could/should easily outdo 1,032 rushing yards and the passing numbers are also low. All Henry has to do to finish the season a RB1 is be average.
Henry’s pedigree is well above average. For those that own him, let’s hope his play in 2018 is too.
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