DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, July 10

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the normal Tuesday monster on hand so let’s dig in!

One of the more annoying aspects of DFS MLB can be mostly nailing a slate and changing just one or two players through the day that proves to be the difference. I had Gregory Polanco in my lineup and changed some things around to jam in the glittery prize of Francisco Lindor. That choice proved to be a poor one and then Chase Anderson didn’t make it through five innings. Any of those choices would have made my night difference but I hope you guys played some of the Pirates because they went nuts. Onto tonight, where we have the massive 15 game slate on tap!

DFS MLB – Yankees at Orioles

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP 

4.58 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 24.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .302 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .319 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

We’re seeing Tanaka for the first time in a while and there’s about zero percent chance I’m playing him tonight. Not only has he not pitched for a month, but he’s the third highest priced pitcher on FanDuel. Here’s the other issue. Tanaka is carrying a 2.25 HR/9 to righty hitters this season and that has to terrify you. Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo have an ISO over .235 and Jonathan Schoop and Adam Jones are both over .185. This matchup would be dicey for Tanaka on a good day so I’ll not have him at all tonight. You can stack up the righty bats and hope Tanaka just serves up meatballs in his first start back but I wouldn’t go there either. Nobody on the Orioles other than Jones rates well against the splitter, which Tanaka throws about 30 percent of the time.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Adam Jones

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.39 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .357 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .298 average, .368 wOBA, 13.8 K rate, 31.2 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

I do have some slight hesitation in targeting the Yankees tonight. Cashner has started two games against them this season and has logged a quality start in each. They haven’t been good starts for fantasy but they sure didn’t leave Yankee owners happy that day. New York is a little beat up through the lineup right now but on paper, they should be able to take advantage of a pitcher that throws his fastball over 61 percent of the time. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks are way above average against that pitch. However, Hicks is over $4,000 and that seems a little foolish on a slate this big. Stanton and Judge are always fine plays but it should be noted that Judge has a .300 ISO against righties while Stanton is .187 on the season. This seems like a spot I won’t have a very big piece of. We can always circle back to it if we still like hitters after we see the rest of the slate.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge

Secondary Options – Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner

Home Run Pick – Adam Jones

DFS MLB – Nationals at Pirates

Nationals Probable Starter – Jeremy Hellickson, RHP 

3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .266 average, .342 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 28.7 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .275 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

Hellickson wound up setting the stage for one of the biggest comebacks of the season his last start. He spotted the Marlins nine runs before the Nationals roared back to win that game and there’s really no chance you can trust him here.I’m still kicking myself for having Polanco in my sample lineup and moving off of him because I don’t trust the Pirates. 33 years of being a fan makes your habits die hard, I guess.

We could be looking at another lefty Pirates stack that paid off so handsomely last night as Hellickson throws his fastball under 40 percent but leans on his curveball and change-up at least 22 percent of the time for each pitch. Gregory Polanco is the best change-up hitter while Corey Dickerson leads the charge against the curve. Polanco has the bigger upside because he can steal bases as well and he has the higher ISO against righties of the two players. If the lineup is the same as last night, you can stack them 1-3-4 with Dickerson, Polanco and Colin Moran with his .334 wOBA against righties.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Francisco Cervelli, Starling Marte

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

3.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .304 average, .356 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .287 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard hit rate

It’s another rinse and repeat spot because the Buccos are throwing a pitcher who scuffles against lefties and throws a ton of fastballs on top of that. So far, Musgrove has either been really solid or he’s gotten whacked and there hasn’t been a lot of middle ground. The Nationals haven’t been the most reliable offense either but this seems like a game that should tilt in their favor for offense.

Bryce Harper and Juan Soto left the yard yesterday and could do it again tonight. I’ve been pounding the drum all season that Harper hasn’t been worth the price tag but I’m also smart enough to know he’s got a massive hot streak coming at some point this year. That’s not rocket science because if it was, I wouldn’t be able to figure it out. Harper smashes fastballs even though some of his stats don’t look pretty and he’s still got a .286 ISO against righties. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he has another big game tonight. You could add in Matt Adams, Adam Eaton or Daniel Murphy if you wanted to but I’ll likely just stick with the top two hitters tonight. Musgrove could ruin your night if you stack.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams

Home Run Pick – Polanco and Harper both stay hot

DFS MLB – Reds at Indians

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .302 average, .382 wOBA, 16.8 K rate, 32.6 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .316 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

I’m still trying to figure out how the Indians came up so small against Anthony DeSclafani last night but that’s why they play the game. I’ll bookmark this for the next DeSclafani start because maybe there’s an opportunity there but Cleveland is in a nice bounce back spot this evening. Romano can’t get lefties out and throws a fastball/curve mix almost exclusively. The best left-handed curveball hitter is actually Tyler Naquin and even though his ISO and wOBA against righties looks shaky, this would be more based on Romano struggling so badly with lefties and the price point of $2,200.

Yonder Alonso is the third best fastball hitter not the team, hit a homer last night when he was chalk and he’s over $3,000. Jason Kipnis is also a solid mid-range play at second base since he bats lefty as well. Oh, the Indians also have Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. They’re really good at baseball and the both will bat lefty and crush fastballs. They’re some of the better high-end players tonight with ISO’s of at least .290 and wOBA’s of at least .380. I can’t hate any lefty from Cleveland tonight.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley(does anyone want to venture a guess of which team might be my favorite stack of the night?)

Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion,

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 31.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .193 average, .251 wOBA, 33.0 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .272 wOBA, 29.9 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Bauer has been an absolute machine lately and even though he’s the highest priced pitcher on the slate, you have to be interested here. The Reds could potentially have six hitters that would hit lefty against Bauer tonight and he’s been even better against them than righties. One a slate this big, playing Reds isn’t worth it and the only way you can think about it is if you want to stack a couple bats. Nobody will play Reds tonight and there’s a very good reason for that.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Optons – None

Secondary Options – Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto

Home Run Pick – Jason Kipnis

ST PETERSBURG, FL – JULY 1: Joey Wendle #18 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Jake Bauers #9 and Adeiny Hechavarria #11 after scoring in the seventh inning against the Houston Astros on July 1, 2018 at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Tigers at Rays

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .300 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 46.8 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .304 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 45.1 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

The Rays offense has been on fire these past couple of days and Matt Boyd might not be the man to put out the fire. The make or break matchup could actually be Boyd’s slider. He throws it over a third of the time and the Rays don’t rank very well against that pitch. Tampa runs as the third worst team against the slider this season, ahead of only Kansas City and Miami. The best individual hitter is Jake Bauers. Even though it’s a small sample of just 30 at-bats, he’s also the team leader in wOBA and ISO so he stands out as a great tournament option. I would also take a look at Wilson Ramos and C.J. Cron who both have a wOBA over .360 and have power potential against Boyd.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers(elite GPP option)

Rays Probable Starter – TBA

Even the team website doesn’t have the starting pitcher listed for the Rays as of this writing so the generic breakdown is more or less this – if we’ll see a righty for the majority of the game, I’ll mostly stay away from Tigers hitters. If it’s a lefty, I’m a whole lot more interested since most of the Tigers are cheap. Nicholas Castellanos is the one bat I would consider regardless of the pitching matchup.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, TBD

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, TBD

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Brewers at Marlins

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .266 average, .338 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 39.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .257 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 39.0 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

With J.T. Realmuto on paternity leave, the biggest threat in this Miami offense is on the sidelines and Chacin might actually be in play as a cheap GPP option. The Marlins don’t have a lot of lefties to throw at Chacin and only two of them should be a major concern. Justin Bour stands out with the highest ceiling and has a .239 ISO to prove it. Derek Dietrich will likely leadoff and is a fine lineup filler but he’s not the type of hitter you actively avoid. J.T. Riddle is the only other lefty of any reputation that they can throw out there and I’ll definitely limit myself to the first two Miami hitters. Bour looks like the best one at just $3,000 and Chacin doesn’t miss enough lefty bats to worry about him striking out all that much.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Bour

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

*11.0 IP* 5.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .263 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .292 average, .417 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate

The Brewers are going to be very popular tonight seeing as how they draw one of the least experienced pitchers on the slate. Lopez hasn’t seen a lot of success so far in the majors and I wonder how heavily players will weigh his splits. If Lopez remains this heavy of a reverse splits pitcher, a lot of folks who play the power lefty Eric Thames could be disappointed. Lopez throws a fastball, curve and change arsenal and the best righty hitter against the mix is Lorenzo Cain. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power against righty pitching but he gets on base a good bit and can swipe a base at any moment. It’s hard to ignore how hot Aguilar is right now and he’s on the side of the posit that is far worse from Lopez. We could see him hit yet another home run tonight. Thames is a fine play and they both have an ISO over .315. It’s just smart to realize the splits that Lopez has displayed so far.  A Brewers stack certainly isn’t the worst idea and it might be about time for Travis Shaw and his .276 ISO to wake up. He’s got just one homer in his last 23 games.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

Home Run Pick – Justin Bour

DFS MLB – Phillies at Mets

Phillies Probable Starter – Enyel De Los Santos, RHP

Major League Debut

We’re going to be relying on scouting reports to figure out where we should be headed tonight with this game. Since these teams played two yesterday, they will both be throwing pitchers who have never started in the majors before. Here’s what fangraphs.com has to say about De Los Santos –

"… garnering swings and misses on his 92-95 mph fastball both within the strike zone and above it and with his fading changeup. De Los Santos also has a solid-average curveball that he can bend into the zone for cheap, early-count strikes the third time through the lineup, but he’s becoming more adept at burying it in the dirt when he’s ahead. He generally lives in the strike zone and is a good bet to start; the only knock I’ve heard from scouts is that the stuff plays down due to poor extension, which might explain the modest strikeout rate despite good reports on the stuff."

I’m sure he’ll be minimum priced tonight and I suppose you can make the case for trotting out the 22-year old since the Mets offense isn’t exactly a group of world beaters. I still like a very cheap pitcher a little down the road. De Los Santos would be a risky GPP play only and I think that Jose Bautista or Brandon Nimmo would be about the only hitters I’d play tonight. They have both feasted off righty pitching so far with wOBA’s over .400. If you wanted to take the route of a full Mets stack, I would also include Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores.

Mets Hitters to Target 

ELite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Jose Bautista

Secondary Options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores

Mets Probable Starter – Drew Gagnon, RHP 

Major League Debut

Other than his name sounding like the Demogorgon from Stranger Things on Netflix, I can’t find much about Gagnon. He’s 28 years old and just now hitting the majors so I’m going to venture on he’s nothing special. A couple of things that do stand out is the fact that he’s had a strikeout rate of over 20 percent for years and has shown extreme ground ball tendencies. That’s not always the most ideal attack spot, although it’s hard for me to buy into Gagnon at his age. Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera are both the same price on FanDuel but Hoskins has the higher wOBA and Iso against righties. He also has the better walk rate which raises the floor a bit. Nick Williams is up there on the leaderboard of wOBA as well and is a perfectly fine cheap outfielder. This game could play out in any way possible. If the players are tired from the double-header yesterday, this game could be a lot more low-scoring than many think. It could also end up being 10-9 in the third and it’s difficult to predict accurately.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Brandon Nimmo

DFS MLB – Rangers at Red Sox

Rangers Probable Starter – Yovani Gallardo, RHP 

8.17 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 15.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average .382 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .327 average, .377 wOBA, 13.6 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Gallardo hasn’t been abjectly horrible in his last two starts but I would be very surprised if he can hold this Red Sox team down in Fenway tonight. Boston has five hitters with a wOBA over .380 against righty pitching, including Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts to the normal suspects of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. I don’t think you can go wrong with any hitter around the top six in the Boston lineup tonight. It’s a matter of who fits into your budget and who you want to play, but I’ll say Betts, Martinez or Benintendi are my top plays. Granted, that might not be terribly helpful but when you learn how to flip a three-sided coin, let me know. Any one of these hitters can go off on any given night. Moreland is by far the cheapest member of this group.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland

Red Sox Probable Starter – TBA 

Yet another team website had no information for us but the smart money might just be on the Red Sox trying to get as many innings as they can from reliever Hector Velazquez and move from there. He’s given up four homers to lefties already this season and the Rangers could add to that total in a major way tonight. I still really like Shin-soo Choo, especially since he got the night off last night and will definitely have his .412 wOBA and .286 ISO back in the lineup tonight. I want to see the rest of the lan before we get too far into who to play for Texas, but Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara are perfectly reasonable against a righty who gives up bombs as well.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo

Secondary Options – Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara

Home Run Pick – 

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Braves

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

6.50 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .301 average, .355 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 17.6 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .260 average, .326 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 43.2 hard hit rate

The last time we saw Stroman, he was getting scorched by the Mets on his way to single digit fantasy points. It’s possible you remember that start because someone likely heard me yelling some not FanSided-friendly words at him as he destroyed my lineup that night. Grudges about past starts aside, he’s walking into a tough spot on the road with his splits. Atlanta should stack four lefties at the top of their lineup, led by Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. Albies carries the higher ISO but part of that is Freeman has been pretty cold. He’s a lot like Harper to me in that he’s  better than he’s been showing but that price is so high to not get points out of him. I’d be more likely to stack Atlanta than play a one-off but if you need a cheap third baseman, Johan Carmago is a solid choice. He’s nothing special but he does carry a little pop in that bat and always seems to be at the right price.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Options – Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, Johan Carmago

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .233 average, .349 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .184 average, .290 wOBA, 27.2 K rate, 42.4 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard hit rate

If you got a dartboard and just pinned random numbers on it, you could probably do a better job at predicting Teheran’s point total than I can. He’s just been all over the board this season but the consistent thing is he’s struggled with lefty power. He’s given up more home runs to righties but lefties have hit him more often. Teheran’s fastball is down to around 89 MPH and he throws that and a slider at about an 85 parent clip. The best hitter against those pitches is Justin Smoak who will also hit lefty against Teheran. He’s also second on the team in ISO behind only Randall Grichuk, an intriguing play himself. The under the radar option might well be Yangervis Solarte. He’s seen his price dip down to $2,800 and rates well against the fastball and slider combo. The best slider hitter on the team is Teoscar Hernandez and he also is sporting a .234 ISO and a .343 wOBA. The Blue Jays stack is risky but there’s plenty of upside there.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Randall Grichuk

Secondary Options – Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Justin Smoak

DFS MLB – Royals at Twins

Royals Probable Starter – Ian Kennedy, RHP 

5.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .337 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 45.3 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .350 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 43.1 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

I almost played Danny Duffy last night but couldn’t quite talk myself into it. I wish I would have because Duffy pitched extremely well but I don’t think Kennedy is going to replicate those results. The only thing that kind of scares me is the strikeout rate against lefty hitters is actually respectable and the Twins have quite a few lefties. I think my favorite play might be Eduardo Escobar who is at a reasonable price and is the number four hitter against the curveball in baseball and rates well against the fastball as well. This is important because Kennedy throws the fastball over 60 percent and then flips a curveball in about 17 percent of the time. Escobar also has a massive .311 ISO against righty pitching. That’s some good correlation and we should be very interested. Eddie Rosario also rates well against the two main pitches and is $200 cheaper. I’m not in love with is price but Brian Dozier is interesting as Kennedy has given up 11 home runs to righties compared to six for the lefties.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Joe Mauer(cash game floor)

Twins Probable Starter – Aaron Slegers, RHP 

*11.1 IP* 2.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 11.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .133 average, .164 wOBA, 13.3 K rate, 46.2 fly ball rate and 46.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .365 wOBA, 10.0 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 45.8 hard hit rate

If you wanted to fit all of the bats, Slegers might be your main man tonight. He’s barely above the minimum and the two biggest power hitters the Royals have are on the left side of the plate. Maybe Slegers doesn’t have massive strikeout upside but the Royals are just a terrible offense. Other than Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas(both lefty), no other hitter has an ISO over .140. From a team standpoint, the Royals offense against righty pitching ranks 25th in average and then 29th in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Slegers doesn’t have a track record to fall back on but this seems like a pretty decent spot. At his salary, I’m pretty interested. The splits could lead you to Whit Merrifield but he has just a .307 wOBA against righty pitching.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda

Home Run Pick – Eduardo Escobar

DFS MLB – A’s at Astros

A’s Probable Starter – Sean Manaea, LHP 

3.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .198 average, .256 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 23.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .274 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard hit rate

This will be the third time that Manaea has faced this Houston lineup and it’s hard to believe he can walk into Houston and find success. Now, he’s done it once this season, scoring 52 points against the Astros. He throws a fastball/changeup mix and Alex Bregman has to be squarely in consideration tonight. He’s good against both pitches and he is crushing lefty pitching with a .427 wOBA and a .288 ISO. He’s not going to come cheap but he shouldn’t be in this matchup. Evan Gattis is a really good option but most readers know where I’m heading when the Astros play a lefty and I need a cheap player and that’s Max Stassi. There’s a little risk because he has been pinch hit for in the past but Brian McCann is on the disabled list so that should mitigate that risk. Stassi and his .387 wOBA is worth the risk at $2,400.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Max Stassi

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, George Springer

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.15 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 31.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .165 average, .246 wOBA, 34.6 K rate, 55.8 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .192 average, .233 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 54.2 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate

Justin Verlandet has shown that he’s actually mortal in these last three starts, giving up 5, 4 and 2 earned runs. I’m not suggesting he’s not a good pitcher but if I’m spending up at pitcher, I’m going to Bauer. I would just feel slightly safer with Bauer over Verlander. Khris Davis would be the only hitter that I would consider given the amount of fly balls he gives up to righties so Davis has a chance…if he makes contact. He’s the definition of an elite GPP play tonight.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Home Run Pick – Khris Davis

DFS MLB – Cardinals at White Sox

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 17.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .309 wOBA, 14.0 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .168 average, .196 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 24.8 fly ball rate and 26.4 hard hit rate

If there was a day for Mikolas to actually rack up some strikeouts, one would think this could be it. The one thing that is holding me back is his K rate to lefty hitters, because Chicago should have three of the top four hitters as lefty. There’s always a chance that Yoan Moncada or Daniel Palka runs into one but that isn’t the likeliest of scenarios. The pitch data is encouraging for Mikolas as well because he throws the slider and curve over 20 percent of the time each and no player really jumps out and grabs you from that perspective. I don’t really plan on having White Sox but a very low owned tournament play would be Moncada, Palka and Yolmer Sanchez stacked up against Mikolas to try to take advantage of his splits to lefties.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

5.54 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .296 average, .364 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .291 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 21.9 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Life in the major leagues has come at Covey really fast as he’s gotten blasted in his last four starts. He’s actually been in negative points the past two starts and there’s an outside chance that could happen again. If I only play one third baseman tonight, Matt Carpenter is going to be it and I suspect he’ll be chalky for a 15 game slate. Covey has been terrible against lefties and Carpenter has feasted on righties with a .382 wOBA and .256 ISO. Covey lives on his fastball over two-thirds of the time and Carpenter is right there with Yadier Molina and Jose Martinez to be the best fastball hitter on the team. The Cardinals are extremely affordable and could be one of the best ways to help you pay up for Bauer at pitcher. I’d have no issues playing Martinez and Paul DeJong or Marcell Ozuna and his price point of just $2,800. Martinez and DeJong both have wOBA’s over .365.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez

Secondary Options – Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Rockies

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.05 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH –  .268 average, .359 wOBA, 29.0 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 47.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .185 average, .233 wOBA, 32.2 K rate, 30.7 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

This is a Coors game that I’m not pushing people out-of-the-way to jam in Rockies hitters, even though it’s a lefty pitching in Colorado. You can surely play Nolan Arenado as he’s not going to be below the $5,000 threshold in this situation very often. I think I’m not going to play him but it would be tough to not have some shares tonight in GPP formats. It’s kind of the same story for hitters like Trevor Story and Ian Desmond. Would I think it’s a terrible play if you loaded up on those hitters? Not at all because they all carry an ISO of at least .280 and a wOBA of at least .270. Arenado is way above the field in those respects as would be expected. The one odd note that popped int he research was the BvP for DJ LeMahieu. In 40 at-bats, he has four homers off of Corbin and would be in interesting part of a Rockies stack.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, DJ. LeMahieu

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

3.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .397 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .290 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 31.0 had hit rate

I’ll put out there that I think Paul Goldschmidt is a trap play tonight. I’m sure this take is going to age like the leftovers that are sitting in the back of your fridge that you forgot about, but I’m not paying for him on this slate. Usually the combo of Coors and Goldy facing a lefty would have me all sorts of excited. The issue becomes Anderson has ben a major reverse splits pitcher this year. That even holds true for him at home, where he is a worse overall pitcher. In Coors, he’s allowing a .329 soba to righties compared with a .403 to lefties. If Arizona puts David Peralta or Daniel Descalso into their lineup, I would be more likely to play them at a cheaper price. Descalso especially has a .279 ISO against lefties this season ad is just $3,300.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Daniel Descalso, David Peralta

Secondary Options – Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt

Home Run Pick – DJ LeMahieu

Mariners at Angels

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP 

4.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 15.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .269 average, .309 wOBA, 11.2 K rate, 29.0 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .333 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

The potential for a blowup start from Leake will keep me from trying to pitch him, though I’m not sure where I’d want to go with Angels hitters past the obvious Mike Trout. Not like he’s ever a bad play but he rates well against the fastball/cutter combo that Leake throws a lot and his ISO and wOBA against righty pitching is over .300 and .400, respectively. It’s not the most obvious Trout smash spot so he’d almost surely come in low owned. Shohei Ohtani is certainly worth a look as well because Leake is worse to lefties and Ohtani’s ISO and wOBA are very similar to Trout. He’s also $1,500 cheaper and it’s a much easier play to make. Leake has given up 10 home runs to righties opposed to five to lefties, so the decision isn’t easy. Andrelton Simmons is a floor play since he makes a ton of contact and Leake doesn’t strike hitters out.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Garrett Richards, RHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 27.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .292 wOBA, 281 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .306 wOBA, 27.2 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if this is one of the lower owned games of the night. There’s not much to sink our teeth into here. The Mariners don’t carry a high strikeout rate against righty pitching(just 20.2 percent) which would seemingly limit the ceiling for Richards. He’s not a pitcher I want to attack because he’s good when he’s healthy and only one Mariner rates well against the slider. That’s important because Richards offsets his 50 percent fastball with a 38.9 percent slider. Mitch Haniger does rate well against both and he would be my favorite play. Past that, there’s just too many other spots that I like to force this one.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Denard Span, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – Shohei Ohtani

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Padres

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

4.56 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 24.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .174 average, .250 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .284 average, .380 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 48.5 hard hit rate

Wil Myers homered again last night but the price is to the point where I probably won’t play him. Heck, this game alone features outfielders I like more at cheaper prices. Still, it’s worth noting because it’s not like he can’t knock old man Rich Hill around. The Padres offense as a whole is odd. They rank very low in most offensive categories against lefties except for one and that’s ISO. When they hit lefties, it generally goes a long way. Hill is basically a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and curveball. This means that I’m off Christian Villanueva. He’s good against lefties but he strikes out a ton and he is awful against the curve. Thee’s way to much risk with him and with Hill, for that matter. This side of the game is GPP only for me, although you could talk me into Hunter Renfroe in cash since his price is just $2,700.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wil Myers, Christian Villanueva, Hunter Renfroe

Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP 

4.84 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 18.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .351 wOBA, 11.1 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .321 average, .386 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 35.5 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

I’m just going to create a document that I can paste in here that says “the Dodgers are in a great spot and could be the late night hammer” because it has happened so often lately. I’l have one version if they play a righty pitcher and one if they play a lefty pitcher, which is the case tonight. They draw one that can be smacked around and I want two players above all else – Matt Kemp and Chris Taylor. Kemp was the outfielder I referred to when discussing Myers because he’s crushed lefties with a .420 wOBA and .301 ISO and Taylor is way too cheap against a poor lefty with a .221 ISO, .346 wOBA and he’s coming off a big game last night. Kemp is also the leader on the Dodgers against the 60 percent fastball from Lauer. Justin Turner feels very safe, but I’m not convinced that he’s shown the power to justify his $3,800 price. Give me the cheaper players here.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernadez

Secondary Options -Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy

Home Run Pick –  Chris Taylor

DFS MLB – Cubs at Giants

Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .290 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 24.1 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .343 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

If there’s a spot to use Quintana, this might be it. He gets one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball and the Giants don’t look too hot against lefty pitching this season. They’re middle of the pack in strikeout percentage but everything else is very poor. San Francisco is 18th in average, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 25th in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+. It’s not going to get much better for Quintana and even if you don’t want to play him, the Giants hitters seem like a poor bet to help your lineup tonight. Andrew McCutchen is always a good option against a lefty, but would you pay for him or Matt Kemp? To me, that’s a very easy call for Kemp. The best case I could make is actually for Nick Hundley and his .339 ISO and .400 wOBA against lefties this season. Even then, he’s only a decent play because he’s $2,100.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -Nick Hundley, Andrew McCutchen

Giants Probable Starter – Derek Holland, LHP  

4.35 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .225 wOBA, 11.0 K rate, 361.3fly ball rate and 24.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .358 wOBA, 25.7 K rate, 42.9 fly ball rate and 45.1 hard hit rate

Sometimes it pays to be writing this way into the wee hours of the morning. The Giants announced after their game that Johnny Cueto was being bumped back a day in the rotation and that Holland would draw the start. It appears that the Cubs will be without Kris Bryant for at least one more game, which does help Holland. You can argue for Willson Contreras but the park is so poor I think I’d pass. One very fascinating GPP option is Javier Baez. Holland is far worse against righty hitters and throws his curveball 20 percent of the time. The second baseman for the Cubs is the best curveball hitter in baseball. If Holland hangs one, odds are it could end up in the seats even in a very poor hitter’s park. This game will be mostly an avoid for me.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant if he surprises us and plays

Home Run Pick – Javier Baez

Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Trevor Bauer 

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C/1B – Max Stassi

2B – Daniel Descalso 

3B – Matt Carpenter

SS – Chris Taylor

OF – Matt Kemp, Adam Jones, Tyler Naquin 

Utility – Yonder Alonso 

I always like to plug-in my favorite expensive pitcher for my first roster build because I want to see if I can build an offense that I like or if there’s no choice but to come down. This offense doesn’t have a lot of big names but it has every chance to produce. Stassi is a lefty killer against a mostly average pitcher. It’s a little bold to play Descalso as a lefty on lefty but we’ve definitely got our reasons. Matt Carpenter might be one of the top plays on the slate, and I feel the same way about the two Dodgers that we have. Adam Jones is a cheap one-off against a pitcher he’s seen well in his career and could be a bit vulnerable coming back from an injury. A two-man stack towards the bottom of the Indians order finishes off this lineup.

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Trevor Bauer, Justin Verlander

Mid-Range – Miles Mikolas, Rich Hill, Jose Quintana

Punts – Enyel De Los Santos, Aaron Slegers

Stacks to Consider – New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Coors game stack, St. Louis Cardinals

Next: FanDuel World Cup Semi Final DFS Picks

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.